Background: Congenital heart disease is a public health issue due to its incidence and mortality rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term mortality of children with congenital heart disease admitte...Background: Congenital heart disease is a public health issue due to its incidence and mortality rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term mortality of children with congenital heart disease admitted to the Departmental University Hospital of Borgou/Alibori (CHUD-B/A) from 2011 to 2022. Methods: This descriptive longitudinal study with analytical aims covered 11 years (April 1, 2011 to December 31, 2022). It consisted of a review of the records of children under 15 years of age with echocardiographically confirmed congenital heart disease. This was followed by an interview with the parents to assess the children’s current condition. Data were entered using Kobocollect software and analyzed using R Studio 4.2.2. software. Results: A total of 143 complete files were retained. The median age at diagnosis was 14 months (IIQ: Q1 = 4;Q3 = 60) with a range of 2 days and 175 months, and the sex-ratio (M/F) was 0.96. Left-to-right shunts were the most frequent cardiopathy group (62.9%). Only 35 children (24.5%) benefited from restorative treatment. The mortality rate was 31.5%. Median survival under the maximum bias assumption was 114 months and 216 months under the assumption of minimum bias. Survival was significantly better in children with right-to-left shunts (p = 0.0049) under the assumption of minimum bias. The death risk factors were: age at diagnosis less than 12 months (aHR = 7.58;95% CI = 3.36 - 17.24;p Conclusion: The long-term mortality of congenital heart disease is high and favoured by the absence of restorative treatment. Local correction of congenital heart disease and medical follow-up will help to reduce this mortality.展开更多
We sought to determine risk factors associated with fetal macrosomia and to explore the long-term consequence of infant macrosomia at the age of 7 years.A prospective population based cohort study was designed to exam...We sought to determine risk factors associated with fetal macrosomia and to explore the long-term consequence of infant macrosomia at the age of 7 years.A prospective population based cohort study was designed to examine the associations between maternal and perinatal characteristics and the risk of macrosomia.A nested case-control study was conducted to explore the long-term health consequence of infant macrosomia.The mean maternal age of the macrosomia group was 24.74±3.32 years,which is slightly older than that in the control group(24.35±3.14 years,P = 0.000).The mean maternal body mass index(BMI) at early pregnancy was 22.75±2.81 kg/m 2,which was also higher than that in the control group(21.76±2.59 kg/m 2,P = 0.000).About 64.6% of macrosomic neonates were males,compared with 51.0% in the control group(P = 0.000).Compared with women with normal weight(BMI:18.5-23.9 kg/m 2),women who were overweight(BMI:24-27.9 kg/m 2) or obese(BMI ≥ 28 kg/m 2),respectively,had a 1.69-fold(P = 0.000) and a 1.49-fold(P = 0.000) increased risks of having a neonate with macrosomia,while light weight(BMI〈18.5 kg/m 2) women had an approximately 50% reduction of the risk.Furthermore,macrosomia infant had a 1.52-fold and 1.50-fold risk,respectively,of developing overweight or obesity at the age of 7 years(P = 0.001 and P = 0.000).Older maternal age,higher maternal BMI at early pregnancy and male gender were independent risk factors of macrosomia.Macrosomic infant was associated with an increased predisposition to develop overweight or obesity at the beginning of their childhood.展开更多
<strong>Purpose: </strong>This study aimed to understand the actual needs of empty-nest differently abled elderly people and analyze their long-term care status including the factors affecting choice of ca...<strong>Purpose: </strong>This study aimed to understand the actual needs of empty-nest differently abled elderly people and analyze their long-term care status including the factors affecting choice of care mode so adequate resources can be allocated to meet their healthcare needs. <strong>Methods:</strong> An empty-nest group was compared with a non-empty-nest group based on data from the 2014 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Individual characteristics, family characteristics, and sociological factors were considered as independent variables, and long-term care model was the dependent variable in the three binary logistic regression method. <strong>Results:</strong> Age, gender, marriage, and disability were the most important factors influencing the choice of long-term care mode, including the willingness of the differently abled elderly. Family care can no longer meet the needs of the severely disabled elderly. Long-term care for such elderly people should be undertaken by professional and specialized social institutions. <strong>Conclusion: </strong>Multi-level services should be provided according to the elderly peoples’ needs, and the skill and expertise of professional personnel of care institutions should be strengthened. The government should deploy fund-raising initiatives, actively use the power of non-governmental organizations, and strive to resolve the financial issues faced by the empty-nested elderly people with disability.展开更多
Cerebellar hemorrhage (CH) has a higher early mortality rate compared with other types of intracranial hemorrhage and the survivors often suffer from momentous disability. Hence, the prognostic factors of long-term ou...Cerebellar hemorrhage (CH) has a higher early mortality rate compared with other types of intracranial hemorrhage and the survivors often suffer from momentous disability. Hence, the prognostic factors of long-term outcome beyond 6 months after CH are clinically valuable, however only three studies were reported in the literature. Sixty-one patients with CH were retrospectively analyzed at least 6 months after hemorrhage. The long-term outcome of all patients and long-term functional status of survivors beyond 6 months (the patients who died within 6 months after hemorrhage were excluded) were assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS): favorable outcome (mRS 0 - 2) and unfavorable outcome (mRS 3 - 6). All of the prognostic factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. There were 16 (26.2%) patients in the favorable outcome group and 45 (73.8%) in the unfavorable outcome group with respect of long-term outcome in all patients. The radiological brainstem compression (HR = 3;p = 0.015) was shown to be an independent predictor. On the other hand, 46 out of 61 (75.4%) patients survived beyond 6 months. In total, 16 (34.7%) patients had a favorable functional status, and 65.3% (30/46) had a persistent unfavorable functional status. Moreover, only age 365 years (HR = 3;p = 0.019) was an independent predictor. Radiological brainstem compression and age 365 were respectively shown to be a strong prognostic factor for long-term outcome and functional status among survivors beyond 6 months after hemorrhage in patients with CH.展开更多
In this study, we compared the serum levels of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and arginase-1 in long-term survival kidney transplant recipients (LTSKTRs) with those in short-te...In this study, we compared the serum levels of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and arginase-1 in long-term survival kidney transplant recipients (LTSKTRs) with those in short-term survival kidney transplant recipients (STSKTRs). We then evaluated the relationship between these levels and graft function. Blood samples were collected from 50 adult LTSKTRs and 20 STSKTRs (graft survival approximately 1-3 years post-transplantation). All patients had stable kidney function. The samples were collected at our institution during the patients' follow-up examinations between March 2017 and September 2017. The plasma levels of TGF-β1, IL- 10, and arginase- 1 were analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). The levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 were significantly higher in the LTSKTRs than in the STSKTRs. The time elapsed since transplantation was positively correlated with the levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 in the LTSKTRs. The estimated glomerular filtration rate was positively correlated with the TGF-β1 level, and the serum creatinine level was negatively correlated with the TGF-β1 level. Higher serum levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 were found in LTSKTRs than in STSKTRs, and we found that TGF-β1 was positively correlated with long-term graft survival and function. Additionally, TGF-β1 and arginase-1 levels were positively correlated with the time elapsed since transplantation. On the basis of these findings, TGF-β1 and arginase- 1 may play important roles in determining long-term graft survival. Thus, we propose that TGF-β1 and arginase-1 may potentially be used as predictive markers for evaluating long-term graft survival.展开更多
目的:鉴于脓毒症的高发病率和高病死率,早期识别高风险患者并及时干预至关重要,而现有死亡风险预测模型在操作、适用性和预测长期预后等方面均存在不足。本研究旨在探讨脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素,构建近期和远期死亡风险预测模型。方法...目的:鉴于脓毒症的高发病率和高病死率,早期识别高风险患者并及时干预至关重要,而现有死亡风险预测模型在操作、适用性和预测长期预后等方面均存在不足。本研究旨在探讨脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素,构建近期和远期死亡风险预测模型。方法:从美国重症监护医学信息数据库IV(Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV,MIMIC-IV)中选取符合脓毒症3.0诊断标准的人群,按7?3的比例随机分为建模组和验证组,分析患者的基线资料。采用单因素Cox回归分析和全子集回归确定脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素并筛选出构建预测模型的变量。分别用时间依赖性曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)、校准曲线和决策曲线评估模型的区分度、校准度和临床实用性。结果:共纳入14240例脓毒症患者,28 d和1年病死率分别为21.45%(3054例)和36.50%(5198例)。高龄、女性、高感染相关器官衰竭评分(sepsis-related organ failure assessment,SOFA)、高简明急性生理学评分(simplified acute physiology score II,SAPS II)、心率快、呼吸频率快、脓毒症休克、充血性心力衰竭、慢性阻塞性肺疾病、肝脏疾病、肾脏疾病、糖尿病、恶性肿瘤、高白细胞计数(white blood cell count,WBC)、长凝血酶原时间(prothrombin time,PT)、高血肌酐(serum creatinine,SCr)水平均为脓毒症死亡的危险因素(均P<0.05)。由PT、呼吸频率、体温、合并恶性肿瘤、合并肝脏疾病、脓毒症休克、SAPS II及年龄8个变量构建的模型,其28 d和1年生存的AUC分别为0.717(95%CI 0.710~0.724)和0.716(95%CI 0.707~0.725)。校准曲线和决策曲线表明该模型具有良好的校准度及较好的临床应用价值。结论:基于MIMIC-IV建立的脓毒症患者近期和远期死亡风险预测模型有较好的识别能力,对患者预后风险评估及干预治疗具有一定的临床参考意义。展开更多
This paper discusses the long-term temperature variation of the Southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(SYSCWM)and examines those factors that infl uence the SYSCWM,based on hydrographic datasets of the China National Sta...This paper discusses the long-term temperature variation of the Southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(SYSCWM)and examines those factors that infl uence the SYSCWM,based on hydrographic datasets of the China National Standard Section and the Korea Oceanographic Data Center.Surface air temperature,meridional wind speed,and sea surface temperature data are used to describe the seasonal changes.Mean temperature of the two centers of the SYSCWM had diff erent long-term trends.The temperature of the center in the west of the SYSCWM was rising whereas that of the center in the east was falling.Mean temperature of the western center was related to warm water intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current,the winter meridional wind,and the winter air temperature.Summer process played a primary role in the cooling trend of temperature in the eastern center.A decreasing trend of salinity in the eastern half of the SYSCWM showed that warm water intrusion from the south might weaken,as could the SYSCWM circulation.Weakened circulation provided less horizontal heat input to the eastern half of the SYSCWM.Less lateral heat input may have led to the decreasing trend in temperature of the eastern center of the SYSCWM.Further,warmer sea surface temperatures and less heat input in the deep layers intensifi ed the thermocline of the eastern SYSCWM.A stronger thermocline had less heat fl ux input from upper layers to this half of the SYSCWM.Stronger thermocline and weakened heat input can be seen as two main causes of the cooling temperature trend of the eastern center of the SYSCWM.展开更多
Changing contexts in a long-term and short-term perspective should be managed within an integrated risk management framework that accounts for both temporary management strategies and permanent preventive measures to ...Changing contexts in a long-term and short-term perspective should be managed within an integrated risk management framework that accounts for both temporary management strategies and permanent preventive measures to reduce the impact of natural hazard processes. In this study, statistical transformation indicators of short-term (20 year) to long-term (30 year) used flood regional coefficients. After the tests of data validation and the reconstruction of missing and outlier data, the data of 18 hydrometric stations were completed for 30 years (1985 to 2014). In the next phase, the return period values were prepared for 20-year and 30-year statistical periods (1985 to 2004 and 1985 to 2014) using the HYFA software. Thus the 20-year to 30-year ratio for various return period discharges obtained and these dimensionless values were plotted for the return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years, also fitted the logarithmic trend line and the values of coefficients of the relationship were obtained. The statistics including average, standard deviation, coefficient of variation (CV), skewness coefficient (CS) and Kurtosis coefficient (CK) were calculated for 20-year data period for each station and we identified the statistics as independent parameters and the coefficients of A and B as dependent parameter, thus analyzed using linear multivariate regression, and regional factors were obtained. In the hydrometric station with 17-027 code, the discharge using the regional factors was calculated and compared with the discharge values of 30 years data. The results showed that there is little difference between the observed and estimated values from regional factors thus this method can be used in projects that require at least 30 years of data.展开更多
AIM: To evaluate the prognostic factors of long-term survival of more than 3 years in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the records of 474 patients with adv...AIM: To evaluate the prognostic factors of long-term survival of more than 3 years in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the records of 474 patients with advanced ⅢB/Ⅳ NSCLC who received chemotherapy as initial treatment between September 2002 and March 2007.RESULTS: The median survival time(MST) was 12.5 mo and the 3 year and 5 year survival rates were 14.6% and 5.3%, respectively. Long-term survival of more than 3 and 5 years was observed in 65 and 16 patients, respectively. The MST for the 65 patients was61.5 mo(range, 60.1-81.0 mo). In the 474 patients, a good performance status(PS), female sex, non-smoking status and adenocarcinoma histology were significantly associated with a favorable outcome. Furthermore, female sex, a good PS, non-smoking status and adenocarcinoma histology were significantly correlated with longterm survival of more than 3 years and most of these patients(89.2%, 58/65) received epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitors as any line treatment. Survival analysis of long-term survivors showed that a PS of 0 was an independent prognostic factor for predicting favorable outcomes. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that a good PS and adenocarcinoma histology play an important role in long-term survival of more than 3 years. A PS of 0 was an independent prognostic factor for predicting favorable outcomes in patients with advanced NSCLC who survived for more than 3 years.展开更多
AIM:To identify factors predicting the clinical response of ulcerative colitis patients to granulocyte-monocyte apheresis (GMA). METHODS:Sixty-nine ulcerative colitis patients (39 F,30 M) dependent upon/refractory to ...AIM:To identify factors predicting the clinical response of ulcerative colitis patients to granulocyte-monocyte apheresis (GMA). METHODS:Sixty-nine ulcerative colitis patients (39 F,30 M) dependent upon/refractory to steroids were treated with GMA. Steroid dependency,clinical activity index (CAI),C reactive protein (CRP) level,erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR),values at baseline,use of immunosuppressant,duration of disease,and age and extent of disease were considered for statistical analysis as predictive factors of clinical response. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. RESULTS:In the univariate analysis,CAI (P = 0.039) and ESR (P = 0.017) levels at baseline were singled out as predictive of clinical remission. In the multivariate analysis steroid dependency [Odds ratio (OR) = 0.390,95% Confidence interval (CI):0.176-0.865,Wald 5.361,P = 0.0160] and low CAI levels at baseline (4 < CAI <7) (OR = 0.770,95% CI:0.425-1.394,Wald 3.747,P = 0.028) proved to be effective as factors predicting clinical response. CONCLUSION:GMA may be a valid therapeutic option for steroid-dependent ulcerative colitis patients with mild-moderate disease and its clinical efficacy seems to persist for 12 mo.展开更多
The inflammatory bowel diseases(IBDs) are chronic incurable conditions that primarily present in young patients. Being incurable, the IBDs may be part of the patient's life for many years and these conditions requ...The inflammatory bowel diseases(IBDs) are chronic incurable conditions that primarily present in young patients. Being incurable, the IBDs may be part of the patient's life for many years and these conditions require therapies that will be effective over the long-term. Surgery in Crohn's disease does not cure the disease with endoscopic recurrent in up to 70% of patients 1 year post resection. This means that, the patient will require many years of medications and the goal of the treating physician is to induce and maintain long-term remission without side effects. The development of the antitumour necrosis factor alpha(TNFα) agents has been a magnificent clinical advance in IBD, but they are not always effective, with loss of response overtime and, at times, discontinuation is required secondary to side effects. So what options are available if of the anti-TNFα agents can no longer be used? This review aims to provide other options for the physician, to remind them of the older established medications like azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and methotrexate, the less established medications like mycophenolate mofetil and tacrolimus as well as newer therapeutic options like the anti-inte-gins, which block the trafficking of leukocytes into the intestinal mucosa. The location of the intestinal inflammation must also be considered, as topical therapeutic agents may also be worthwhile to consider in the longterm management of the more challenging IBD patient. The more options that are available the more likely the patient will be able to have tailored therapy to treat their disease and a better long-term outcome.展开更多
文摘Background: Congenital heart disease is a public health issue due to its incidence and mortality rate. The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term mortality of children with congenital heart disease admitted to the Departmental University Hospital of Borgou/Alibori (CHUD-B/A) from 2011 to 2022. Methods: This descriptive longitudinal study with analytical aims covered 11 years (April 1, 2011 to December 31, 2022). It consisted of a review of the records of children under 15 years of age with echocardiographically confirmed congenital heart disease. This was followed by an interview with the parents to assess the children’s current condition. Data were entered using Kobocollect software and analyzed using R Studio 4.2.2. software. Results: A total of 143 complete files were retained. The median age at diagnosis was 14 months (IIQ: Q1 = 4;Q3 = 60) with a range of 2 days and 175 months, and the sex-ratio (M/F) was 0.96. Left-to-right shunts were the most frequent cardiopathy group (62.9%). Only 35 children (24.5%) benefited from restorative treatment. The mortality rate was 31.5%. Median survival under the maximum bias assumption was 114 months and 216 months under the assumption of minimum bias. Survival was significantly better in children with right-to-left shunts (p = 0.0049) under the assumption of minimum bias. The death risk factors were: age at diagnosis less than 12 months (aHR = 7.58;95% CI = 3.36 - 17.24;p Conclusion: The long-term mortality of congenital heart disease is high and favoured by the absence of restorative treatment. Local correction of congenital heart disease and medical follow-up will help to reduce this mortality.
基金supported by grants from the Jiangsu Birth Defects Intervention Program(No.JS200302)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK2008501)
文摘We sought to determine risk factors associated with fetal macrosomia and to explore the long-term consequence of infant macrosomia at the age of 7 years.A prospective population based cohort study was designed to examine the associations between maternal and perinatal characteristics and the risk of macrosomia.A nested case-control study was conducted to explore the long-term health consequence of infant macrosomia.The mean maternal age of the macrosomia group was 24.74±3.32 years,which is slightly older than that in the control group(24.35±3.14 years,P = 0.000).The mean maternal body mass index(BMI) at early pregnancy was 22.75±2.81 kg/m 2,which was also higher than that in the control group(21.76±2.59 kg/m 2,P = 0.000).About 64.6% of macrosomic neonates were males,compared with 51.0% in the control group(P = 0.000).Compared with women with normal weight(BMI:18.5-23.9 kg/m 2),women who were overweight(BMI:24-27.9 kg/m 2) or obese(BMI ≥ 28 kg/m 2),respectively,had a 1.69-fold(P = 0.000) and a 1.49-fold(P = 0.000) increased risks of having a neonate with macrosomia,while light weight(BMI〈18.5 kg/m 2) women had an approximately 50% reduction of the risk.Furthermore,macrosomia infant had a 1.52-fold and 1.50-fold risk,respectively,of developing overweight or obesity at the age of 7 years(P = 0.001 and P = 0.000).Older maternal age,higher maternal BMI at early pregnancy and male gender were independent risk factors of macrosomia.Macrosomic infant was associated with an increased predisposition to develop overweight or obesity at the beginning of their childhood.
文摘<strong>Purpose: </strong>This study aimed to understand the actual needs of empty-nest differently abled elderly people and analyze their long-term care status including the factors affecting choice of care mode so adequate resources can be allocated to meet their healthcare needs. <strong>Methods:</strong> An empty-nest group was compared with a non-empty-nest group based on data from the 2014 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Individual characteristics, family characteristics, and sociological factors were considered as independent variables, and long-term care model was the dependent variable in the three binary logistic regression method. <strong>Results:</strong> Age, gender, marriage, and disability were the most important factors influencing the choice of long-term care mode, including the willingness of the differently abled elderly. Family care can no longer meet the needs of the severely disabled elderly. Long-term care for such elderly people should be undertaken by professional and specialized social institutions. <strong>Conclusion: </strong>Multi-level services should be provided according to the elderly peoples’ needs, and the skill and expertise of professional personnel of care institutions should be strengthened. The government should deploy fund-raising initiatives, actively use the power of non-governmental organizations, and strive to resolve the financial issues faced by the empty-nested elderly people with disability.
文摘Cerebellar hemorrhage (CH) has a higher early mortality rate compared with other types of intracranial hemorrhage and the survivors often suffer from momentous disability. Hence, the prognostic factors of long-term outcome beyond 6 months after CH are clinically valuable, however only three studies were reported in the literature. Sixty-one patients with CH were retrospectively analyzed at least 6 months after hemorrhage. The long-term outcome of all patients and long-term functional status of survivors beyond 6 months (the patients who died within 6 months after hemorrhage were excluded) were assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS): favorable outcome (mRS 0 - 2) and unfavorable outcome (mRS 3 - 6). All of the prognostic factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models. There were 16 (26.2%) patients in the favorable outcome group and 45 (73.8%) in the unfavorable outcome group with respect of long-term outcome in all patients. The radiological brainstem compression (HR = 3;p = 0.015) was shown to be an independent predictor. On the other hand, 46 out of 61 (75.4%) patients survived beyond 6 months. In total, 16 (34.7%) patients had a favorable functional status, and 65.3% (30/46) had a persistent unfavorable functional status. Moreover, only age 365 years (HR = 3;p = 0.019) was an independent predictor. Radiological brainstem compression and age 365 were respectively shown to be a strong prognostic factor for long-term outcome and functional status among survivors beyond 6 months after hemorrhage in patients with CH.
文摘In this study, we compared the serum levels of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and arginase-1 in long-term survival kidney transplant recipients (LTSKTRs) with those in short-term survival kidney transplant recipients (STSKTRs). We then evaluated the relationship between these levels and graft function. Blood samples were collected from 50 adult LTSKTRs and 20 STSKTRs (graft survival approximately 1-3 years post-transplantation). All patients had stable kidney function. The samples were collected at our institution during the patients' follow-up examinations between March 2017 and September 2017. The plasma levels of TGF-β1, IL- 10, and arginase- 1 were analyzed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). The levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 were significantly higher in the LTSKTRs than in the STSKTRs. The time elapsed since transplantation was positively correlated with the levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 in the LTSKTRs. The estimated glomerular filtration rate was positively correlated with the TGF-β1 level, and the serum creatinine level was negatively correlated with the TGF-β1 level. Higher serum levels of TGF-β1 and arginase-1 were found in LTSKTRs than in STSKTRs, and we found that TGF-β1 was positively correlated with long-term graft survival and function. Additionally, TGF-β1 and arginase-1 levels were positively correlated with the time elapsed since transplantation. On the basis of these findings, TGF-β1 and arginase- 1 may play important roles in determining long-term graft survival. Thus, we propose that TGF-β1 and arginase-1 may potentially be used as predictive markers for evaluating long-term graft survival.
文摘目的:鉴于脓毒症的高发病率和高病死率,早期识别高风险患者并及时干预至关重要,而现有死亡风险预测模型在操作、适用性和预测长期预后等方面均存在不足。本研究旨在探讨脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素,构建近期和远期死亡风险预测模型。方法:从美国重症监护医学信息数据库IV(Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV,MIMIC-IV)中选取符合脓毒症3.0诊断标准的人群,按7?3的比例随机分为建模组和验证组,分析患者的基线资料。采用单因素Cox回归分析和全子集回归确定脓毒症患者死亡的危险因素并筛选出构建预测模型的变量。分别用时间依赖性曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)、校准曲线和决策曲线评估模型的区分度、校准度和临床实用性。结果:共纳入14240例脓毒症患者,28 d和1年病死率分别为21.45%(3054例)和36.50%(5198例)。高龄、女性、高感染相关器官衰竭评分(sepsis-related organ failure assessment,SOFA)、高简明急性生理学评分(simplified acute physiology score II,SAPS II)、心率快、呼吸频率快、脓毒症休克、充血性心力衰竭、慢性阻塞性肺疾病、肝脏疾病、肾脏疾病、糖尿病、恶性肿瘤、高白细胞计数(white blood cell count,WBC)、长凝血酶原时间(prothrombin time,PT)、高血肌酐(serum creatinine,SCr)水平均为脓毒症死亡的危险因素(均P<0.05)。由PT、呼吸频率、体温、合并恶性肿瘤、合并肝脏疾病、脓毒症休克、SAPS II及年龄8个变量构建的模型,其28 d和1年生存的AUC分别为0.717(95%CI 0.710~0.724)和0.716(95%CI 0.707~0.725)。校准曲线和决策曲线表明该模型具有良好的校准度及较好的临床应用价值。结论:基于MIMIC-IV建立的脓毒症患者近期和远期死亡风险预测模型有较好的识别能力,对患者预后风险评估及干预治疗具有一定的临床参考意义。
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41176018,41376031,41206020)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA11020301)the NSFCShandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(No.U1406401)
文摘This paper discusses the long-term temperature variation of the Southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(SYSCWM)and examines those factors that infl uence the SYSCWM,based on hydrographic datasets of the China National Standard Section and the Korea Oceanographic Data Center.Surface air temperature,meridional wind speed,and sea surface temperature data are used to describe the seasonal changes.Mean temperature of the two centers of the SYSCWM had diff erent long-term trends.The temperature of the center in the west of the SYSCWM was rising whereas that of the center in the east was falling.Mean temperature of the western center was related to warm water intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current,the winter meridional wind,and the winter air temperature.Summer process played a primary role in the cooling trend of temperature in the eastern center.A decreasing trend of salinity in the eastern half of the SYSCWM showed that warm water intrusion from the south might weaken,as could the SYSCWM circulation.Weakened circulation provided less horizontal heat input to the eastern half of the SYSCWM.Less lateral heat input may have led to the decreasing trend in temperature of the eastern center of the SYSCWM.Further,warmer sea surface temperatures and less heat input in the deep layers intensifi ed the thermocline of the eastern SYSCWM.A stronger thermocline had less heat fl ux input from upper layers to this half of the SYSCWM.Stronger thermocline and weakened heat input can be seen as two main causes of the cooling temperature trend of the eastern center of the SYSCWM.
文摘Changing contexts in a long-term and short-term perspective should be managed within an integrated risk management framework that accounts for both temporary management strategies and permanent preventive measures to reduce the impact of natural hazard processes. In this study, statistical transformation indicators of short-term (20 year) to long-term (30 year) used flood regional coefficients. After the tests of data validation and the reconstruction of missing and outlier data, the data of 18 hydrometric stations were completed for 30 years (1985 to 2014). In the next phase, the return period values were prepared for 20-year and 30-year statistical periods (1985 to 2004 and 1985 to 2014) using the HYFA software. Thus the 20-year to 30-year ratio for various return period discharges obtained and these dimensionless values were plotted for the return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years, also fitted the logarithmic trend line and the values of coefficients of the relationship were obtained. The statistics including average, standard deviation, coefficient of variation (CV), skewness coefficient (CS) and Kurtosis coefficient (CK) were calculated for 20-year data period for each station and we identified the statistics as independent parameters and the coefficients of A and B as dependent parameter, thus analyzed using linear multivariate regression, and regional factors were obtained. In the hydrometric station with 17-027 code, the discharge using the regional factors was calculated and compared with the discharge values of 30 years data. The results showed that there is little difference between the observed and estimated values from regional factors thus this method can be used in projects that require at least 30 years of data.
文摘AIM: To evaluate the prognostic factors of long-term survival of more than 3 years in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the records of 474 patients with advanced ⅢB/Ⅳ NSCLC who received chemotherapy as initial treatment between September 2002 and March 2007.RESULTS: The median survival time(MST) was 12.5 mo and the 3 year and 5 year survival rates were 14.6% and 5.3%, respectively. Long-term survival of more than 3 and 5 years was observed in 65 and 16 patients, respectively. The MST for the 65 patients was61.5 mo(range, 60.1-81.0 mo). In the 474 patients, a good performance status(PS), female sex, non-smoking status and adenocarcinoma histology were significantly associated with a favorable outcome. Furthermore, female sex, a good PS, non-smoking status and adenocarcinoma histology were significantly correlated with longterm survival of more than 3 years and most of these patients(89.2%, 58/65) received epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitors as any line treatment. Survival analysis of long-term survivors showed that a PS of 0 was an independent prognostic factor for predicting favorable outcomes. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that a good PS and adenocarcinoma histology play an important role in long-term survival of more than 3 years. A PS of 0 was an independent prognostic factor for predicting favorable outcomes in patients with advanced NSCLC who survived for more than 3 years.
文摘AIM:To identify factors predicting the clinical response of ulcerative colitis patients to granulocyte-monocyte apheresis (GMA). METHODS:Sixty-nine ulcerative colitis patients (39 F,30 M) dependent upon/refractory to steroids were treated with GMA. Steroid dependency,clinical activity index (CAI),C reactive protein (CRP) level,erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR),values at baseline,use of immunosuppressant,duration of disease,and age and extent of disease were considered for statistical analysis as predictive factors of clinical response. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. RESULTS:In the univariate analysis,CAI (P = 0.039) and ESR (P = 0.017) levels at baseline were singled out as predictive of clinical remission. In the multivariate analysis steroid dependency [Odds ratio (OR) = 0.390,95% Confidence interval (CI):0.176-0.865,Wald 5.361,P = 0.0160] and low CAI levels at baseline (4 < CAI <7) (OR = 0.770,95% CI:0.425-1.394,Wald 3.747,P = 0.028) proved to be effective as factors predicting clinical response. CONCLUSION:GMA may be a valid therapeutic option for steroid-dependent ulcerative colitis patients with mild-moderate disease and its clinical efficacy seems to persist for 12 mo.
文摘The inflammatory bowel diseases(IBDs) are chronic incurable conditions that primarily present in young patients. Being incurable, the IBDs may be part of the patient's life for many years and these conditions require therapies that will be effective over the long-term. Surgery in Crohn's disease does not cure the disease with endoscopic recurrent in up to 70% of patients 1 year post resection. This means that, the patient will require many years of medications and the goal of the treating physician is to induce and maintain long-term remission without side effects. The development of the antitumour necrosis factor alpha(TNFα) agents has been a magnificent clinical advance in IBD, but they are not always effective, with loss of response overtime and, at times, discontinuation is required secondary to side effects. So what options are available if of the anti-TNFα agents can no longer be used? This review aims to provide other options for the physician, to remind them of the older established medications like azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine and methotrexate, the less established medications like mycophenolate mofetil and tacrolimus as well as newer therapeutic options like the anti-inte-gins, which block the trafficking of leukocytes into the intestinal mucosa. The location of the intestinal inflammation must also be considered, as topical therapeutic agents may also be worthwhile to consider in the longterm management of the more challenging IBD patient. The more options that are available the more likely the patient will be able to have tailored therapy to treat their disease and a better long-term outcome.