Analysis of Drug Medical Insurance Access Pricing Based on the Perspective of Binary Equilibrium

Objective To study the influencing factors in the process of national medical insurance negotiation and drug pricing from the dualistic equilibrium perspective,and to provide reference for the harmonious management of drug pricing in China.Methods Through the literature analysis and policy review,the pricing subject,pricing basis and price control system in the pricing process of medical-accessed medicines were analyzed from the perspective of binary equilibrium and harmonious management.Results and Conclusion It is found that four balances in the drug pricing process,two balances in pricing basis and three balances in price control system need to be considered,respectively.Drug pricing is the key content of national medical insurance access,which is also the hotspot of the policy in the pharmaceutical fields in recent years.Drug pricing not only reflects the value of drugs,but also reflects a lot of top-level designs of binary equilibriums in medical insurance policy.While the rational design of drug pricing requires the joint efforts of the government,pharmaceutical companies and relevant experts to comprehensively consider many equilibriums,so as to improve the relevant systems.

基于Morgenstern-price法的粘土心墙土石坝坡面稳定计算分析

土石坝的坝坡面是否稳定一直是土石坝结构设计研究的重点问题,尤其是在渗流场的影响作用下尤为显著,研究以某水库工程坝体坡面在不同使用工况下的的安全稳定计算为例,通过软件建立坝体的模型,基于不同运行条件下的渗流数据,选用内嵌于计算软件Geostudio中的LOPE/W计算模块中的极限平衡算法(Morgenstern-Price)进行计算,计算结果满足规范要求,说明大坝坡面安全稳定。由于渗流场的引入,能更好的反映工程中的真实运行状况,为工程的建设提供建设依据和数据支持。

Strategic equilibrium price analysis and numerical simulation of preponderant high-tech metal mineral resources

Based on exploitation compensation value system of preponderant high-tech metal mineral resources and distortion of pricing mechanism, social utility function was constructed to modify decision utility function of developers, and was extended to Stackelberg production decision model of preponderant high-tech metal mineral resources development. Analyzing the influences on market monopoly, output and price decision-making exerted by altruistic preferences, inequity aversion and sequential reciprocity fairness belief equilibrium, game fairness equilibrium which is significant in experimental economics can be obtained and verified by numerical simulation. In process of strategic pricing, method that uses the variation of producer surplus to measure strategic value from psychological preferences was proposed for the first time and technical support to improve exploitation compensation value system of preponderant metal mineral resources was available.

NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITION FOR THE EXISTENCE OF A NONNEGATIVE EQUILIBRIUM PRICE VECTOR IN THE CAPITAL MARKET WITH SHORT-SELLING

For the capital market satisfying standard assumptions that are widely adopted in the equilibrium analysis,a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of a nonnegative equilibrium price vector that clears the mean-variance capital market with short sale allowed is derived.Moreover,the given explicit formula for the equilibrium price shows clearly the relationship between prices of assets and statistical properties of the rate of return on assets,the desired rates of return of individual investors as well as other economic quantities.The economic implication of the derived condition is briefly discussed.These results improve the available results about the equilibrium analysis of the mean-variance market.

An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model of Asset Prices with Labor Input

This paper develops the CIR model. In this model, labor is introduced in the production function and leisure in the direct utility function. We examine how the trade-off between labor and leisure would affect asset prices and derive a familiar principal partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy. The solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in economy.

Will Coal Price Fluctuations Affect Renewable Energy Substitution and Carbon Emission? A Computable General Equilibrium-Based Study of China

Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on China’s industry development costs and energy consumption structure?To investigate this problem,this paper utilized an economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium model.In this study,four aspects were analyzed:Energy supply side,proportion of renewable energy consumption,macroeconomy,and changes in CO_(2) emissions.The results of this study show that an increase of 10%–20%in coal prices contributes to a shift into using renewable energy,which leads to energy saving and emission reduction.Renewable energy and clean energy rose by 0.57%–4.47%in the energy structure,but this has a certain negative impact on the macroeconomy.The gross domestic product(GDP)fell by 0.07%–0.18%.As a result,the decline in coal prices became an obstacle to renewable energy substitution and energy conservation.In addition,we put forward policy suggestions according to the results in energy,economic,and environmental effects.

Gold Prices as a Mechanism of Control and Equilibrium in Financial Markets

Gold is used as a currencies comparative measure and,because of its properties(it does not rust)and use(in space industry,for example),it has a significant role in balancing both financial markets and economies.During crises,gold seldom loses value.We aim to show that price of gold is a stabilizing factor for the economic balance.We will do so utilizing the chaos theory,which gains more and more popularity in social sciences.

Short-Term and Long-Term Price Forecasting Models for the Future Exchange of Mongolian Natural Sea Buckthorn Market

Sea buckthorn market floated uncertainly within a narrow range. The market situation provided upward pressure on prices, and producer and consumer interest were poor, coupled with weak prices in the regional markets. The objectives of the study are: 1) to estimate the relationship between wild Sea buckthorn (SB) price and Supply, Demand, while some other factors of crude oil price and exchange rate by using simultaneous Supply-Demand and Price system equation and Vector Error Correction Method (VECM);2) to forecast the short-term and long-term SB price;3) to compare and evaluate the price forecasting models. Firstly, the data was analyzed by Ferris and Engle-Granger’s procedure;secondly, both price forecasting methodologies were tested by Pindyck-Rubinfeld and Makridakis’s procedure. The result shows that the VECM model is more efficient using yearly data;a short-term price forecast decreases, and a long-term price forecast is predicted to increase the Mongolian Sea buckthorn market.

Could Long-Term Stability Last Forever?

The subject of the present paper is to prove that the recently introduced conjecture of boundedness puts a ban over the view of stability as asymptotic property. This result comes in sharp contrast with the prescription of the traditional thermodynamics and statistical physics which consider the existence of equilibrium as asymptotic property of all systems. The difference commences from the use of infinitesimal calculus as the basic implement for modelling by the latter while the primary premise of the conjecture of boundedness is sustaining the energy/matter/information permanently bounded and finite. The latter property overrules the infinitesimal calculus as the major implement of modelling because, among all, it is proven that the traditional one suffers unsoluble difficulties.

面向新型工业化的碳定价政策与创新投入协同优化

碳定价政策是实现“双碳”目标的核心市场机制,创新发展是推动新型工业化的内在驱动力。如何协同设计碳定价政策和创新投入政策,加速工业绿色低碳转型,是中国实现新型工业化过程中的关键问题。研究构建了一个包含创新要素和创新活动部门的动态可计算一般均衡模型,重点描述创新活动对于可再生能源技术进步和工业部门能源效率提升的促进机制。基于该模型,评估不同碳定价政策和碳收入用于创新活动的多种情景的政策效果,结合新型工业化主要特征,从经济、碳排放、减排成本、能源消耗、电气化水平和创新活动水平等维度进行了模拟分析和比较,得到了优化的政策组合。结果表明,通过将碳定价政策结合碳收入按一定比例分配给创新活动部门和风电光伏,可以在实现节能减排的同时稳定经济增长,降低减排成本,提高可再生能源比例,促进能源低碳转型,实现工业部门的低碳增长,推动新型工业化进程。

房价预期对经济波动影响——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的分析

从预期视角探究房价预期因素对经济波动的影响,构建包含房价预期的动态随机一般均衡模型,考察了单期和连续的正向房价预期冲击对经济变量的影响,分析了预期冲击下限购和限贷政策的调控效果。研究结果表明:房价单期预期冲击对经济波动产生的影响大于未预期房价冲击,并且居民预期形成越早,或居民房价看涨预期持续时间越长,经济波动会越剧烈;当居民持有看涨预期时,限贷政策在削弱经济波动的同时能遏制房价上涨,而限购政策失效。政府部门应当建立居民房价预期监测体系,将预期管理引入房价调控政策体系,有助于增强我国经济增长的平稳性和持续性。

考虑负荷时空均衡和弹性响应的电动汽车快充电价定价策略

为了引导电动汽车有序充电,提出了一种考虑负荷时空均衡和弹性响应的电动汽车快充电价定价策略。引入交通流理论描述交通路网,建立电动汽车快充负荷时空分布模型;考虑配电网调度和电动汽车快充负荷的弹性需求,构建源-荷互动下的快充电价定价架构,并基于潮流追踪法从时空双维度推导快充电价的计算方法;在此基础上,计及电动汽车负荷弹性响应特性,以提升配电网的负荷均衡性为目标,建立快充电价定价策略,并通过迭代算法求解该定价策略。算例仿真结果表明,所提定价策略能够有效引导电动汽车进行有序快充,激励电动汽车用户与配电网友好互动,提升负荷的时空分布均衡性。

基于主从博弈的微电网分布式能量管理策略

针对电力市场运营模式下,新能源微电网的整体优化运行与多方投资者的最大利益化之间的冲突问题,提出了基于双层主从博弈的微电网分布式能量管理策略。为充分考虑能源供需两侧的平衡,引入了电力交易代理商的概念,在用户侧提出基于消费者满意度和可调节负荷的综合需求响应策略;考虑源-荷双方的主动性和决策能力,建立了以电力交易代理商为领导者,分布式电源代理商和负荷代理商为追随者的交易决策博弈模型,证明了stackelberg均衡解存在唯一性,采用结合二次规划的差分进化算法对所提模型进行求解。通过对包含分布式电源和社区用户的案例进行分析,验证了所提模型和策略具有良好的收敛性和经济性。

基于Morgenstern-Price法边坡三维稳定性分析

工程中边坡滑裂面通常都是三维空间上的一个曲面,采用传统的二维稳定性分析方法对其进行分析与实际不符。Morgenstern-Price极限平衡条分法(M-P法)是最严密的边坡二维稳定性分析方法,将其拓展并引入边坡三维稳定性分析中。通过类似于M-P法的条间力假定,建立一种新的边坡三维稳定性分析方法—基于M-P法边坡三维极限平衡分析法。给出2个验证算例,与现有几种方法对比计算结果表明:该法不仅计算结果更可靠,而且力学模型更为严谨,计算公式简便且易于编程,可在边坡工程设计及滑坡治理中推广应用。

面向损失厌恶型顾客的排队系统定价和服务能力策略

针对顾客对价格和等待的损失厌恶行为,本文研究了排队系统关于价格和服务能力的决策问题。基于顾客对价格和等待有不同的损失厌恶程度,首先分析了损失厌恶型顾客的均衡进队策略,发现存在多重均衡,其中有一个为个人偏好均衡。随后,以利润最大化为目标,得到了不同单位服务能力成本下的三种价格和服务能力策略。如果单位服务能力成本较小或较大,管理者会采取策略吸引所有潜在顾客进入,而如果处于中间范围,管理者可能只会吸引部分潜在顾客进入,甚至可能不运营系统。最后,损失厌恶系数对系统影响的结果表明:当顾客对价格的损失厌恶程度增加时,最优价格和最优利润都会增加,而当顾客对等待的损失厌恶程度增加时,最优价格和最优利润都会减小,但服务能力策略的变化均与单位服务能力成本密切相关。

非微分Morgenstern-Price法在边坡稳定分析中的应用

推导出Morgenstern—Price法的非微分形式，并编制了基于该方法的程序：设置并行迭代，达到传统MP法一般通用性的要求；设置二一迭代，提高计算收敛速度。通过ACADS均质、非均质边坡算例得出的安全系数与其他算法的比较，验证了该算法的科学可靠性。将此法应用于铁生沟滑坡：天然与饱和状态土体的安全系数分别为1．0838和0．9600，与报告结果的安全系数1．12～1．14和1．00～1．03的范围值基本吻合，表明该方法适用于非均质实际边坡，对边坡的后续监测、防护工作具有指导作用。

基于Morgenstern-price极限平衡法的尾矿坝边坡稳定性分析

尾矿坝的边坡稳定性问题对矿山尾矿库的安全运行至关重要。本文利用GeoStudio软件对某尾矿坝坝体进行建模,运用Slope/W模块中的Morgenstern-price极限平衡方法,采用半正弦函数考虑土条间作用力,对尾矿坝进行边坡稳定性分析计算。通过计算,得出最危险滑弧面及最小安全系数。计算结果表明,应用GeoStudio分析尾矿坝边坡稳定具有一定的实用性和可靠性,为今后尾矿库的安全运行提供一定的指导意义。

考虑用户出行成本预算的电力-交通耦合网络充电站定价策略

随着电动汽车的规模化发展,研究如何有效考虑用户的出行行为机理并制定合理的充电站充电价格,对电力-交通网络的协同优化调度具有重大意义。针对此问题,提出了考虑用户出行成本预算的电力-交通耦合网络充电站定价策略。首先,建立考虑出行成本预算的交通用户均衡模型,将均衡状态通过变分不等式进行等效描述,从而对电动汽车出行需求和充电行为进行刻画。其次,构建考虑功率削减的配电网二阶锥优化模型,将充电站定价问题转化为含有变分不等式约束的优化问题,并根据问题设计交替迭代算法和外梯度算法进行求解。最后,通过算例对所提模型和方法的有效性进行验证,结果表明了考虑出行成本预算对耦合网络充电定价的必要性。

考虑运输安全投入自营物流的危化品制造企业供应链网络均衡研究

随着我国经济的快速发展,危险化学品的需求量飞速增长,同时危化品物流规模也迅速扩大。危化品生产企业以自营物流为主,道路运输事故频发,造成大量人员伤亡和巨大的经济损失。结合以上情况,文章将使用变分不等式、空间价格理论等,在考虑运输安全投入的前提下,构建两层供应链网络模型,结合实例进行算例分析。研究结果表明,当自营物流的危化品制造企业采用不同的成本投入决策时,供应链网络整体利润更大。文章旨在为广大的危险化学品企业提供供应链网络整体决策建议与优化。

Spatial Pattern of Long-term Residence in the Urban Floating Population of China and its Influencing Factors

Exploring long-term residence among the urban floating population is crucial to understanding urban growth in China,particularly since the 2008 financial crisis.By using China Migrants Dynamic Survey data for 2012–2014,China Labor-force Dynamics Survey data for 2014–2016,and macroscale urban matched data,we analyzed the spatial pattern of long-term residential behavior in China’s urban floating population in 2012–2016 and developed an urban spatial utility equilibrium model containing‘macro’urban factors and‘micro’individual and household factors to explain the pattern.The results first revealed that long-term residence is defined as≥6 yr for the urban floating population in China.Second,members of this population are more likely to be long-term residents of the megacities in the three urban agglomerations in eastern China as well as of small and medium-sized cities in western and northeastern China,whereas short-term residence is more likely in cities in central China and near the three urban agglomerations.Third,urban population density and housing prices,both have a significant U-shaped effect,are main factors affecting the spatial pattern of long-term residence.