Trend of Salt Lake Changes in the Background of Global Warming and Tactics for Adaptation to the Changes

Salt lakes are a mirror of climatic changes and provide holographic records of environmental changes of lakes. According to a study of geological hazards in typical salt lake areas in China and other regions, the authors explain how geological hazards in salt lake areas are caused by natural agents and how humans can seek benefits, avoid hazards and reduce losses on the premise that they have monitored and mastered the trend of salt lake changes in advance and even can store flood and recharge water in lakes and extract saline resources. The climate in western China is probably turning from warm-dry to warm-moist. The authors analyze the change trend of salt lakes sensu lato (with salinity≥0.3 wt% (NaCl)eq) and salt lakes sensu stricto (with salinity ≥3.5 wt% (NaCl)eq) in China in such climatic conditions and distinguish three types of salt lake areas (i.e. lake water rising type, lake water falling type and lake water rising and unstable type) according to the characteristics of lake water rising and shrinking. In order to conform to the climatic and lake changes in China's salt lake areas, the authors propose to add and improve hydrological and meteorological observation stations and integrate observations with remote sensing monitoring in important salt lake areas and set up multidisciplinary and interdepartmental basic projects to monitor and study recent climatic and environmental changes in salt lake areas of western China. Moreover, it is necessary to build additional flood-control and drought-preventing water conservancy facilities in key salt lake areas and work out measures for ecological protection in salt lake areas. Full consideration should be given to the influence of flooding when building saltfields and implementing capital projects.

Climate change trend and its effects on reference evapotranspiration at Linhe Station, Hetao Irrigation District

Linhe National Meteorological Station, a representative weather station in the Hetao Irrigation District of China, was selected as the research site for the present study. Changes in climatic variables and reference evapotranspiration （ET0 ） （estimated by the Penman-Monteith method） were detected using Mann-Kendall tests and Sen＇s slope estimator, respectively. The authors analyzed the relationship between the ET0 change and each climatic variable＇s change. From 1954 to 2012, the air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, whereas relative humidity and wind speed decreased dramatically. These changes resulted in a slight increase in ETo. The radiative component of total ET0 increased from 50% to 57%, indicating that this component made a greater contribution to the increase in total ETo than the aerodynamic component, especially during the crop growing season （from April to October）. The sensitivity analysis showed that ETo in Hetao is most sensitive to mean daily air temperature （11.8%）, followed by wind speed （-7.3%） and relative humidity （4.8%）. Changes in sunshine duration had only a minor effect on ET0 over the past 59 years.

Quantitative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamics in the Zoige Plateau from 2001 to 2020

Climate change and human activities such as overgrazing and rapid development of tourism simultaneously affected the vegetation of the Zoige Plateau.However,the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to these vegetation dynamics remain unclear.Therefore,clarifying how and why the vegetation on the Zoige Plateau changed can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the region.Here,we investigate NDVI trends using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation greenness and distinguish the relative effects of climate changes and human activities on vegetation changes by utilizing residual trend analysis and the Geodetector.We find a tendency of vegetation greening from 2001 to 2020,with significant greening accounting for 21.44%of the entire region.However,browning area expanded rapidly after 2011.Warmer temperatures are the primary driver of vegetation changes in the Zoige Plateau.Climatic variations and human activities were responsible for 65.57%and 34.43%of vegetation greening,and 39.14%and 60.86%of vegetation browning,respectively,with browning concentrated along the Yellow,Black and White Rivers.Compared to 2001-2010,the inhibitory effect of human activity and climate fluctuations on vegetation grew dramatically between 2011 and 2020.

Trend Analysis in Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Anomaly Index in the Context of Climate Change in Southern Togo

Rainfall and temperature are climatic variables mostly affected by global warming. This study aimed to investigate the temporal trend analysis in annual temperature and rainfall in the Southern Togo for the 1970-2014 period. Daily and annual rainfall and temperature were collected from four weather stations at Atakpame, Kouma-Konda, Lome, and Tabligbo. The temperature variability was determined by the Standardized Anomaly Index (SAI) and the annual rainfall variability was determined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis. Mann-Kendall statistical test for the mean annual, mean annual minimum and maximum temperature from 1970 to 2014 showed significant warming trends for all stations except Kouma-Konda where mean annual maximum temperature had exhibited non significant cooling trend (P = 0.01). For Standardized Precipitation Index in the 12-month time scale, dry tendency dominates Atakpamé (55.7%) and Kouma-Konda (55.5%) while wet tendency dominates slightly Lomé (50.9%) and Tabligbo (51.4%). The Mann-Kendall test revealed an increasing trend in standardized anomaly index at all the sites, prejudicial to rainfed agriculture practiced by about 90% of Togolese crop growers. The trend analysis in the climate variables indicated a change in climate that necessitates some specific actions for resources management sustainability and conservation.

Climate Change: Trends and People’s Perception in Nepal

In the context of climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts will increase which could put tremendous challenges in water resources management in the coming days. While scientific knowledge on climate threats and changing climate patterns are essential, it is also important to consider the impacts in relation to how the threats are perceived and handled by local people. This paper intends to assess the trend and people’s perception on temperature and precipitation. Three focus groups’ discussion and a total number of 240 households were interviewed during field visit. The collected information was scaled from the least preferred-1 to the most preferred-5 based on their preferences. The trend of mean of annual average, maximum and minimum temperature indicates that the temperature has increased significantly and precipitation intensity and magnitude are also in increasing trend in the monsoon and postmonsoon seasons which may raise the extreme flood events. These facts were verified with the people’s perception. This finding could be useful for formulation of effective flood management policy and plan in this river basin as well as very applicable for other similar areas.

Changes of coastline and tidal flat and its implication for ecological protection under human activities: Take China’s Bohai Bay as an example

The change processes and trends of shoreline and tidal flat forced by human activities are essential issues for the sustainability of coastal area,which is also of great significance for understanding coastal ecological environment changes and even global changes.Based on field measurements,combined with Linear Regression(LR)model and Inverse Distance Weighing(IDW)method,this paper presents detailed analysis on the change history and trend of the shoreline and tidal flat in Bohai Bay.The shoreline faces a high erosion chance under the action of natural factors,while the tidal flat faces a different erosion and deposition patterns in Bohai Bay due to the impact of human activities.The implication of change rule for ecological protection and recovery is also discussed.Measures should be taken to protect the coastal ecological environment.The models used in this paper show a high correlation coefficient between observed and modeling data,which means that this method can be used to predict the changing trend of shoreline and tidal flat.The research results of present study can provide scientific supports for future coastal protection and management.

Change Trends of Accumulated Temperature and Effects on Agricultural Production in Shenyang during Recent 58 Years

[Objective] The aim was to study the change trend of accumulated temperature in Shenyang in recent 58 years, as well as its effect on agricultural production. [Method] Based on the surface temperature data in Shenyang, the change trends of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature in Shenyang in recent 58 years were analyzed by means of climatic statistics method, and the effects of accumulated temperature variation on agricultural production were discussed. [Result] In recent 58 years, the first day with temperature ≥0 ℃ advanced 10 d, and the last day put off slightly, while sustained days prolonged 13 d, and ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature increased by 343 ℃·d; meanwhile, the first day with temperature ≥10 ℃ advanced 9 d, and the last day put off 8 d, while sustained days prolonged 16 d, and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature increased by 370 ℃·d; compared with the first 20 years, sustained days with temperature ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ prolonged 9 d in the last 20 years, and ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature increased by 196 and 202 ℃·d, respectively. In addition, the increase of heat resources affected agricultural production in Shenyang. [Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical foundation for grasping heat resources variation and adjusting agriculture distribution.

CLIMATE CHANGE:LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere （NH） temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and varioas oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series tbr the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external tbrcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

Future Extremes Temperature: Trends and Changes Assessment over the Mono River Basin, Togo (West Africa)

This study assessed the extreme temperatures trends and changes over Mono River Basin under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP8.5. Simulations of five (5) regional climate models (RCMs) provided by Africa-CORDEX program were selected from the eighth (8) considered. Future trends in temperature percentiles, including extremes, are used to assess changes in the distribution of daily temperature over Mono Basin in Togo. Changes of temperature and Extreme low (high) temperatures from the baseline period 1961-2010 were computed for future (2051-2100). This analysis reveals that in the north of the basin, for the positive trends, the maximum is 0.82°C·year-1 given by model MPI-ESM2 at Tchamba while the strongest negative change is 0.26°C·year-1 given by model MIROC at Sotouboua. In the south of the basin, the strongest negative trend is of 0.03°C·year-1 given by model (A) CNRM-CMA5. The maximum ones of the trends for models-mean are all positive except at Anié. Higher percentiles of minimum and maximum temperature will increase at a greater rate than the lower percentiles during dry and rainy seasons (with differences more pronounced for maximum values) over the north. Concerning future changes, almost all the RCMs predicted an increase of maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of the Mono Basin, particularly in the north. Finally, results predicted an increase of TX90P (TX10P) and TN90P (TN10P) from 10% to 45% (13% to 40%) and 0% to 35% (12% Mean value), respectively over Mono Basin.

Simulation of Change Trend of Drought in Shaanxi Province in Future Based on PRECIS Model

[Objective] The aim was to predict the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in future. [Method] Based on the regional climate model PRECIS from Hadley Climate Center, British Meteorological Bureau, taking precipitation anomaly percentage as assessment index, the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in reference years (1971-1990) was simulated, and the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province from 2071 to 2100 was predicted. [Result] The simulated value of drought frequency in reference years could simulate the distribution of drought well, namely drought frequency was high in the north and low in the south; annual mean frequency of drought above second grade decreased gradually from north to south in future, and it was the highest in northern Shaanxi (above 4 times) and lowest in southern Shaanxi (below 2.5 times); drought frequency in future went down in northern Shaanxi from southern Yulin to Yan’an, eastern Guanzhong (including Weibei) and the west of southern Shaanxi, while it went up in the north of northern Shaanxi, Qinling Mountains and Shangluo region in western Guanzhong. [Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical references for the research on the change trend of drought in Shaanxi Province in future.

Non-Stationary Trend Change Point Pattern Using 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series (AMS) Precipitation Data

This paper mainly investigated the basic information about non-stationary trend change point patterns. After performing the investigation, the corresponding results show the existence of a trend, its magnitude, and change points in 24-hourly annual maximum series (AMS) extracted from monthly maximum series (MMS) data for thirty years (1986-2015) rainfall data for Uyo metropolis. Trend analysis was performed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator (SSE) used to obtain the trend magnitude, while the trend change point analysis was conducted using the distribution-free cumulative sum test (CUSUM) and the sequential Mann-Kendall test (SQMK). A free CUSUM plot date of change point of rainfall trend as 2002 at 90% confidence interval was obtained from where the increasing trend started and became more pronounced in the year 2011, another change point year from the SQMK plot with the trend intensifying. The SSE gave an average rate of change in rainfall as 2.1288 and 2.16 mm/year for AMS and MMS time series data respectively. Invariably, the condition for Non-stationary concept application is met for intensity-duration-frequency modeling.

Change Point Detection and Trend Analysis for Time Series

Trend analysis and change point detection in a time series are frequent analysis tools.Change point detection is the identification of abrupt variation in the process behaviour due to natural or artificial changes,whereas trend can be defined as estimation of gradual departure from past norms.We analyze the time series data in the presence of trend,using Cox-Stuart methods together with the change point algorithms.We applied the methods to the nearsurface wind speed time series for Australia as an example.The trends in near-surface wind speeds for Australia have been investigated based upon our newly developed wind speed datasets,which were constructed by blending observational data collected at various heights using local surface roughness information.The trend in wind speed at 10 m is generally increasing while at 2 m it tends to be decreasing.Significance testing,change point analysis and manual inspection of records indicate several factors may be contributing to the discrepancy,such as systematic biases accompanying instrument changes,random data errors(e.g.accumulation day error)and data sampling issues.Homogenization technique and multiple-period trend analysis based upon change point detections have thus been employed to clarify the source of the inconsistencies in wind speed trends.

MODIS-Derived Nighttime Arctic Land-Surface Temperature Nascent Trends and Non-Stationary Changes

Arctic nighttime land-surface temperatures derived by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors onboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites are investigated. We use the local equator crossing times of 22:30 and 01:30, respectively, in the analysis of changes, trends and variations on the Arctic region and within 120° sectors. We show increases in the number of days above 0°C and significant increase trends over their decadal periods of March 2000 through 2010 (MODIS Terra) and July 2002 through 2012 (MODIS Aqua). The MODIS Aqua nighttime Arctic land-surface temperature change, +0.2°C ± 0.2°C with P-value of 0.01 indicates a reduction relative to the MODIS Terra nighttime Arctic land-surface temperature change, +1.8°C ± 0.3°C with P-value of 0.01. This reduction is a decadal non-stationary component of the Arctic land-surface temperature changes. The reduction is greatest, -1.3°C ± 0.2°C with P-value of 0.01 in the Eastern Russia— Western North American sector of the Arctic during the July 2002 through 2012.

Analysis on Climatic Change Trend in Xingtai City in Recent 57 Years

[ Objective] The research aimed to study climatic change trend in Xingtai City in recent 57 years. [ Method ] Based on climate data （ rain- fall, temperature, sunshine, relative humidity and ground temperature, etc. ） in Xingtai City during 1954 -2010, the climatic change trend in Xingtai City in recent 57 years was analyzed by using line chart, trend chart and climate variability. Moreover, the concrete characteristics of climatic change trend were discussed. [ Result] The annual rainfall in Xingtai City in recent 57 years presented obvious decrease trend, and the decrease velocity was 20.952 mrn/10 a. The annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature and annual average minimum temperature all presented rise trends. The rise speed of minimum temperature was the fastest, and was followed by average temperature. The rise speed of maximum temperature was the slowest. The annual relative humidity decreased at the velocity of 1.460 %/10 a. The ground temperature of 0 cm presented rise trend, but the shallow-layer ground temperatures of 5 -20 cm all presented decline trends. The deep-layer ground temperatures of 0. 8 and 1.6 m both presented weak decline trends. The ground temperature of 3.2 m presented obvious rise trend. The annual total cloud amount in- creased at the velocity of 1.673 into/10 a. The annual sunshine hours decreased at the velocity of 100.600 h/10 a. The annual average and annual minimum atmospheric pressures both presented decline trends. The decline trend of annual minimum atmospheric pressure was very obvious, while the annual maximum atmospheric pressure presented obvious rise trend. [ Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for development and utilization of agricultural production resources in Xingtai City.

Analysis on Temporal-spatial Distribution and Change Trend of the Temperature in Beibei District

[ Objective] The research aimed to analyze temporal-spatial distribution and change trend of the temperature in Beibei District. [ Method] Based on temperature observation data at 6 ground meteorological observatories of Beibei District from 1951 to 2010, EOF and linear trend method were used to analyze temporal-spatial distribution and change characteristics of the temperature in Beibei District in recent 60 years. [ Result] Tem- perature in Beibei District in recent 60 years overall presented rise trend, and average rise velocity was 0.045 ~C/10 a. Temperature rise in autumn was the most obvious, while summer temperature presented decline trend. Average temperature presented gradual rise trend from January to July and gradual decrease trend from August to December. Seen from spatial distribution, temperature in the whole district was higher in the west and lower in the middle. Abnormal spatial distribution of the average temperature in the whole district mainly had consistent higher （lower） type, south- north reverse type and east-west reverse type. [ Condusionl The research provided theoretical basis for effective disaster prevention and reduction in the zone.

Preliminary Studies on Evaluation and Change Trends of Dominant Components in New Types of Tobacco Sheets by Thick Pulp Process

[Objectives]This study was conducted to deeply understand the effects of production process on the quality of new types of tobacco sheets with different flavors.[Methods]Based on the pilot production process of thick pulp method,four different flavors of tobacco sheets were sampled at several links in the production process,for the detection of the contents of the main components in the samples,including propylene glycol,glycerol,menthol and glyceryl triacetate,so as to explore the change trends of various components in the thick pulp process.[Results]The change laws of propylene glycol and glycerol contents had a very high similarity,showing a trend of first decreasing and increasing then.The changes of menthol content and glyceryl triacetate content were greatly affected by the specific flavor formula.As one of the indexes of the new tobacco evaluation system,the alcohol-to-ester ratio data need to be further improved in the actual production and application process.[Conclusions]This study provides basic data support for improving the quality of tobacco sheets.

Trends and Factors Associated with Changes in Early Initiation of Breastfeeding: Analysis of the Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys 2004-2016

Background: Despite WHO recommendations on the benefits of early initiation of breastfeeding for both the mother and child, only 53.5% of newborns in Tanzania are breastfed within the first hour of life. The trend for early initiation of breastfeeding shows little progress and Tanzania is still far behind reaching the global recommended rate of 70% of early initiation of breastfeeding. This study aims to determine trends and factors associated with changes in the early initiation of breastfeeding in Tanzania from 2004-2016. Methodology: This was an analytical cross-sectional study utilizing secondary data from the Tanzania Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHS) for the years 2004-2005, 2010, and 2015-2016. Data analysis was performed using Stata 15. Frequencies and proportions were used to summarize categorical variables. A Modified Poisson regression model was used to determine factors associated with the early initiation of breastfeeding. Multivariable Poisson decomposition analysis was used to assess factors associated with changes in the early initiation of breastfeeding across surveys. Results: Trends in early initiation of breastfeeding decreased from 59.53% in 2004/2005 to 46.72% in 2010, and then increased to 51.94% in 2015/2016. Only 5.9% of the overall change in early initiation of breastfeeding was contributed by the difference in characteristics such as mode of delivery and working status. The difference in coefficients contributed to a 94% decrease in early initiation of breastfeeding mostly due to a decrease in early initiation of breastfeeding among caesarean section delivery patients. Conclusion: The prevalence of early initiation of breastfeeding in Tanzania decreased between 2004 and 2016, then increased from 2010-2016. Interventions and health policies need to target factors that had significant effects on the early initiation of breastfeeding such as increasing health facility delivery and promoting the initiation of breastfeeding soon after caesarean section delivery.

The Influence of the Changes in Social Trends of Thought in Japan

The social trend of thought is the trend of thought that is of extensive influence formed in a certain period of time in a given society. It o-riginates from the changes in international environment and domestic social situation, reflecting the interests and demands of a given group of people and producing a great influence on the foreign and domestic policies and the future trend of the society. One prominent feature of

Age Structure and Change Trend of Tobacco Farmers:A Case Study of Shashi Town,Liuyang City,Hunan Province

Taking the tobacco-growing area of Shashi Town,Liuyang City as the object,the number of registered,newly added and resigned tobacco farmers in each year,average age,number and proportion of tobacco farmers of different ages,number and proportion of tobacco farmers born in different eras,as well as planting scale and planting history of flue-cured tobacco in the last 10 years were analyzed statistically.The results showed that the number of tobacco farmers in Shashi Town showed a rapid decline trend from 2012 to 2018,while the average age continuously increased,and the average planting scale rose in a wave like way.From 2019 to 2021,the decline rate of the number of tobacco farmers slowed down,and the average planting scale continuously increased,while the aging of tobacco farmers accelerated.Meantime,the birth years of tobacco farmers were further concentrated in the 1960s,and they were mainly at the age of 50-59.The tobacco industry in Shashi Town of Liuyang City is facing the crisis of aging tobacco farmers and no successor of flue-cured tobacco planting,and it is predicted that the next 5-10 years will continue the change trend from 2019 to 2021.

Analysis on Change Trend and Influencing Factors of Natural Resource Utilization of Community Farmers around the Habitat of Giant Pandas

The habitat of giant pandas borders the living areas of farmers in surrounding communities. Due to the low level of economic development and resource used method, the life of community farmers depends on the natural resources of the habitat of giant pandas. Analyzing the natural resource utilization of farmers in communities around the habitat of giant pandas is conducive to formulating more reasonable management policies and protecting the habitat of giant pandas more effectively. Based on the field survey data, this paper classifies the main ways of community farmers using the natural resources of the habitat of giant pandas, counts the quantity of resources used and analyzes their change trends. On this basis, this paper selects indicators, constructs a model and analyzes the main influencing factors affecting the natural resources utilization of community farmers from three aspects: the individual characteristics of household heads, the family characteristics of community farmers and the residence characteristics of community farmers.