Role of the Nocturnal Low-level Jet in the Formation of the Morning Precipitation Peak over the Dabie Mountains

The diurnal variation of precipitation over the Dabie Mountains(DBM) in eastern China during the 2013 mei-yu season is investigated with forecasts of a regional convection-permitting model. Simulated precipitation is verified against surface rain-gauge observations. The observed morning precipitation peak on the windward(relative to the prevailing synoptic-scale wind) side of the DBM is reproduced with good spatial and temporal accuracy. The interaction between the DBM and a nocturnal boundary layer low-level jet(BLJ) due to the inertial oscillation mechanism is shown to be responsible for this precipitation peak. The BLJ is aligned with the lower-level southwesterly synoptic-scale flow that carries abundant moisture.The BLJ core is established at around 0200 LST upwind of the mountains. It moves towards the DBM and reaches maximum intensity at about 70 km ahead of the mountains. When the BLJ impinges upon the windward side of the DBM in the early morning, mechanical lifting of moist air leads to condensation and subsequent precipitation.

Low-Level Jets over Southeast China: The Warm Season Climatology of the Summer of 2003

The southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) over southeast China in the summer of 2003 is analyzed in this study. The analysis is based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final (FNL) operational global analysis data on 1.0×1.0-degree grids at 6-h intervals. The major criteria for choosing the LLJ included the following: a maximum wind speed equal to or greater than 12.0 m s -1 , a wind direction of between 180° and 270°, and the height of wind maximum at 900-700 hPa, not confined to single pressure level. The results show that the LLJs over southeast China dominate at 850 and 800 hPa. These LLJs are closely associated with the topography of this area and tend to locate regions with large terrain gradients, including the northeastern and eastern Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Under the influence of mid-latitude westerly winds, the LLJs above 750 hPa move northward to the Yangtze-Huai River Basin. Compared to the ten-year (2000-2009) mean climate conditions, the LLJs in the warm season of summer 2003 were exceptionally active and strong, as reflected by the positive anomalies of LLJ occurrence numbers and wind speed. In addition, the 2003 LLJs showed strong diurnal variation, especially at pressure levels below 800 hPa. The majority of the LLJs appeared between midnight and the early morning hours (before 8 a.m.). Finally, the summary of LLJ grid numbers indicates that more than 80% of LLJs in June and July 2003 occurred within the 33-d rainy period. Thus, these LLJs are directly related to the anomalously heavy rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Basin.

Change of Low-level Jet in a Heavy Rainstorm Process of Xiangtan in July 2016

Based on the previous research on the model of rainstorm weather with low-level jet in Xiangtan,using the classification result of radar echo characteristics,the wind profile data provided by new generation of weather radar in Changsha and hourly rainfall data,a thorough study of the heavy rainfall from 2 to 5 July 2016 in Xiangtan was conducted. It was concluded that heavy precipitation had the characteristics of the WPSH pattern of rainstorm with low-level jet at early stage,and then it converted to cold shear jet pattern in latter stage. When low-level southwest jet began to have momentum download,that is to say,there was more than 12 m/s of southwest jet below 1 km,and it rapidly strengthened and expanded downward,it was conducive to the occurrence of short-term rainstorm. The low-level jet would not immediately cause a strong precipitation when it reached the station,with a certain lag. A positive correlation existed between the increase of low-level jet index and precipitation intensity,and low-level jet index could predict the occurrence of heavy rainfall and rain intensity.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET STREAMS IN NANJING AREA BASED ON WIND PROFILER DATA

In order to understand the activity characteristics of low-level jets in the Nanjing area,statistical analysis and comparative study are carried out on their monthly and diurnal variations,characteristics of their cores and accompanying weather conditions using wind profile data in 2005-2008 collected by two wind profilers.The results show that low-level jets have significant monthly and diurnal variations.They occur more frequently in spring and summer than in autumn and winter and are more active in early morning and at night,with the maximum wind speed usually occurring at midnight.The central part of the low-level jet occurs mainly at the height of less than 1400 meters,and the enhancement of central speed is beneficial to the appearance of precipitation.Meanwhile,when the low-level jet appears in summer,it helps cause heavy rain.The statistical results of the boundary wind profiler are well consistent with those of the tropospheric wind profiler.Two kinds of wind profilers also have the capability of continuously detecting the development of low-level jets.

Nocturnal Low-levelWinds and Their Impacts on Particulate Matter over the Beijing Area

Three-month wind profiles, 260 m PM_1 concentrations [i.e., particulate matter(PM) with an aerodynamic diameter ≤1μm], and carrier-to-noise ratio data at two Beijing sites 55 km apart(urban and suburban) were collected to analyze the characteristics of low-level nocturnal wind and PM in autumn and winter. Three mountain-plain wind events with wind shear were selected for analysis. The measurements indicated that the maximum wind speeds of the northerly weak low-level jet(LLJ) below 320 m at the suburban site were weaker than those at the urban site, and the LLJ heights and depths at the suburban site were lower than those at the urban site. The nocturnal 140 m mean vertical velocities and the variations in vertical velocity at the urban site were larger than those at the suburban site. A nocturnal breeze with a weak LLJ of ～3 m s^(-1) noticeably offset nocturnal PM transport due to southerly flow and convergence within the northern urban area of Beijing. Characteristics of the nocturnal LLJ, such as start-up time, structure, intensity, and duration, were important factors in determining the decrease in the nocturnal horizontal range and site-based low-level variations in PM.

ENERGETIC DIAGNOSIS FOR TWO KINDS OF LOW LEVEL JETS

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Variations of the Summer Somali and Australia Cross-Equatorial Flows and the Implications for the Asian Summer Monsoon

The temporal variations during 1948-2010 and vertical structures of the summer Somali and Australia cross-equatorial flows （CEFs） and the implications for the Asian summer monsoon were explored in this study. The strongest southerly and northerly CEFs exist at 925 hPa and 150 hPa level, respectively. The low-level Somali （LLS） CEFs were significantly connected with the rainfall in most regions of India （especially the monsoon regions）, except in a small area in southwest India. In comparison to the climatology, the low- level Australia （LLA） CEFs exhibited stronger variations at interannual time scale and are more closely connected to the East Asian summer monsoon circulation than to the LLS CEFs. The East Asian summer monsoon circulation anomalies related to stronger LLA CEFs were associ- ated with less water vapor content and less rainfall in the region between the middle Yellow River and Yangtze River and with more water vapor and more rainfall in southern China. The sea-surface tempera- ture anomalies east of Australia related to summer LLA CEFs emerge in spring and persist into summer, with implications for the seasonal prediction of summer rainfall in East Asia. The connection between the LLA CEFs and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall may be partly due to its linkage with E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation. In addition, both the LLA and LLS CEFs .exhibited interdecadal shifts in the late 1970s and the late 1990s, consistent with the phase shifts of Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）.

高、低空急流耦合对山东“利奇马”台风暴雨增幅影响的诊断研究

受登陆北上台风“利奇马”等影响,2019年8月9~12日山东省出现连续暴雨,其中10日夜间出现降雨峰值。利用中国气象局上海台风研究所(Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration,简称CMA-STI)热带气旋最佳路径数据、山东省自动气象站逐时降雨量、常规观测资料、中国风云二号地球静止气象卫星(FY-2G)0.1°×0.1°逐小时云顶相当黑体亮温和美国环境预报中心(National Center of Environmental Prediction,简称NCEP)1°×1°逐6 h再分析等资料,主要运用纬向风局地变化方程与大气动能方程,诊断分析降雨明显增幅与高、低层风场变化的关系。结果表明:(1)暴雨主要影响系统有高低空急流、500 hPa西风槽、850 hPa台风倒槽及“利奇马”本体环流等。10日200 hPa中纬度大尺度西南风急流东南移影响鲁西北,当天08:00(北京时,下同)850 hPa因双台风活动而形成的大尺度东南风急流突然北伸越过山东省。台风倒槽对流云与本体环流对流云先、后北移经鲁中,累积效应造成该地区10日夜间雨量最大。(2)10日20:00850 hPa章丘站东北侧出现了过程最快东风增幅,纬向运动方程诊断结果表明,东风平流是东风增加最主要原因,地转偏向力项则不利于东风增加。(3)10日20:00章丘站200 hPa西南风风力明显加大形成急流,10日08:00至11日08:00青岛站850 hPa维持东南风低空急流。同时位于高空急流右后侧与低空急流左前方是鲁中附近10日夜间降雨增幅的重要原因。章丘200 hPa与青岛850 hPa都是在最大风力之前12 h动能增加最快。动能方程诊断表明,最有利于鲁西北高空急流形成的是位能平流项,最有利于鲁东南低空急流形成的是动能垂直通量散度项。(4)10日20:00至13日08:00“利奇马”本体环流一直在影响山东,暴雨期间山东中部地形的动力作用也一直存在,而降雨的峰值是出现在10日夜间,说明10日20:00前后高、低空急流的耦合可能是山东暴雨增幅的主要影响因子。其主要作用至少有加强山东中部的垂直运动、整层水汽输送与静力不稳定度等方面。

东南风低空急流影响“21·7”郑州市极端暴雨分析

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)最佳路径数据、美国环境预报中心(National Center of Environmental Prediction,NCEP)最终分析格点资料(Final Analysis,FNL)及常规观测数据等,分析了2021年7月郑州极端暴雨过程的特征机理。结果表明:(1)两个TC同时远距离输送大量水汽,东南风低空急流与强降水关系密切。当东南风急流北上到太原、邢台等站后郑州市暴雨减弱。郑州市6 h降水超过62.5 mm站点数目增减与850 hPa地转偏差数值变化趋势一致。(2) 20日白天郑州站极端降水发生前,从850 hPa经500 hPa至200 hPa风向从东南风顺转为西南风。200 hPa与850 hPa水平风的垂直切变(Vertical Wind Shear,VWS)从最大值开始减小、可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor,PWV)明显加大、不稳定程度减小,这些都是极端暴雨发生的有利条件。极端暴雨具有明显的湿对流特点。(3)纬、经向风变率诊断表明,最有利于郑州市850 hPa东风维持的因子是地转偏差,最有利于南风加大的因子是动量平流。动量对流促使郑州市暴雨过程850 hPa南风减小,故动量上、下传递并非850 hPa南风加大原因。

2022年“2.13”冀中大雪过程多源气象资料分析

利用常规观测资料、era5再分析资料、风廓线雷达产品、地基GPS/MET大气可降水量(precipitable water vapor,PWV)等,对2022年2月13日冀中大雪过程进行了详细分析。①降雪发生之前的36 h内PWV呈增长态势,0~12 h上升最快,12~36 h呈缓慢上升趋势。②降水量和PWV呈一定正相关关系,降雪期间PWV变化平稳,随着PWV出现连续下降,降水结束。③风廓线雷达的水平风向风速演变对降雪的预报有一定指示意义:3000 m突然出现20 m/s的西南低空急流,随着20 m/s的西南低空急流向下延伸至2500 m高度,降雪增强。④降雪之前,0.5 m/s及以上的正速度首先出现在1500 m以上,当2000 m以下突然出现1.0 m/s以上的正速度后,0~3 h内降雪发生。⑤1000 m以下垂直速度增加到1.5 m/s及以上时,降雪增强。⑥降雪期间C_(n)^(2)(大气折射率结构常数)一直稳定在-180~-165 dB,C_(n)^(2)值小于-180 dB时,最大探测高度降至3500 m以下,整层垂直速度小于0.5 m/s,预示降雪结束。

华南沿海2011年7月15-18日持续暴雨过程中的季风槽与中尺度对流系统相互作用

应用NCEP FNL再分析资料及位涡分离反演等方法,对华南沿海2011年7月15—18日持续暴雨过程中季风槽与中尺度对流系统的相互作用进行了研究.主要针对暴雨发生期间季风槽气旋性涡度向上发展的机理及其对季风槽维持发展和中尺度对流系统活动的影响进行分析。结果发现,季风槽的中尺度对流系统发展于弱斜压性环境中,大多在槽东西两端涡度中心区发展最强。南侧盛行的西南低空急流为对流反复发生提供了对流发展的"可维持性"条件,是对流得以组织发展成为中尺度对流系统的重要原因。涡度收支诊断表明,季风槽气旋性涡度生成主要由中尺度对流系统低层辐合引起。位涡分离反演结果证实,季风槽气旋性环流增强主要由与中尺度对流系统潜热加热相关的扰动位涡造成,并随着中尺度对流系统加热峰值高度升高而向上发展,是大尺度环流对中尺度对流系统潜热加热动力响应的结果。在季风槽东西两端,由于中尺度对流系统发展强烈且持续,具有更高的加热效率,引起的气旋性涡度向上发展最为明显。其结果可引起中尺度对流系统西南一侧向北非地转风发展,并在地转偏向力作用下增强西风,维持低空急流的发展,为对流反复发生提供条件。这些都说明季风槽大尺度环流与中尺度对流系统相互作用在中尺度对流系统和持续暴雨形成过程中有重要作用。

基于风廓线雷达产品的冰雹过程分析

利用贵州省威宁县气象局的风廓线雷达基础数据及其二次开发产品、雨量站和MICAPS的实况数据,对2019年6月11日发生在威宁本站的一次冰雹大风天气过程进行综合分析。结果表明:水平廓线产品可反映出冷暖平流的时空变化及垂直分布,更早探测冷空气入侵、风场切变情况及低空急流强度;大气折射率结构常数和垂直速度可以指示降水的发生、持续时间及降水强度情况;强降水发生前有较强风垂直切变,降水过程中风垂直切变值整体大于0.2 s^(-1),风垂直切变的增强会引起垂直速度和地面大风的增大;若以大于15 dBZ和小于10 dBZ为降水的起止标志,风廓线雷达反射率因子较其他产品可以更清晰地指示降水的开始和结束。

多源观测资料在六盘山西侧一次强对流暴雨中的应用

利用常规气象探测、ERA5逐1 h再分析、区域气象站、X波段双偏振、C波段多普勒及风廓线雷达等多源资料,对2022年7月15日六盘山西侧发生的一次被业务常用数值模式和预报员主观预报均漏报了的强对流暴雨进行综合分析。结果表明:此次暴雨发生在西太平洋副热带高压西北侧,主要落区为低层暖式切变线南侧及低空急流左前侧。在六盘山地形作用下,中尺度地面辐合线、中尺度西南急流和中尺度涡旋可能是此次暴雨的重要触发、维持和增强系统。暴雨由两条中尺度回波带造成,其上对流单体呈后向传播,存在明显的列车效应。地面5 min降水量明显增强前1~2 h,有低空急流加强、垂直风切变增加、急流中风速向下脉动和干侵入等现象,对暴雨预报预警有很好的参考意义。50 dBz以上强度回波面积、垂直积分液态水含量、回波顶高、大范围的差分传播相移(K_(DP))和差分反射率因子(Z_(DR))的大值区对强降水落区有较好的指示意义,K_(DP)能较好反映强降水强度。最大K_(DP)和Z_(DR)均较最强5 min降水提前10 min出现,Z_(DR)弧和Z_(DR)柱也较最强5 min降水提前10~20 min出现。最强降水时段,K_(DP)达3.0~4.0°·km^(-1),对应Z_(DR)为3.0~3.3 dB,相关系数为0.90~0.95,说明雨滴直径大且数浓度大,增加了降水的极端性。

“12·14”山东暴雪过程的极端性特征及成因

利用国家级地面气象观测站、风廓线雷达、X波段双偏振相控阵雷达等多源观测资料和欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)第五代大气再分析(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)资料,总结了2023年12月13—14日山东大范围暴雪、局地大暴雪(简称“12·14”暴雪)极端性的特征和成因,并与2021年11月7日山东极端暴雪过程(简称“11·7”暴雪)对比分析了降雪量和雪水比差异的原因。结果表明:(1)典型的暖平流型天气形势是产生极端暴雪有利的环流背景条件,低层切变线和风速辐合区在鲁西北叠加,形成强烈而持久的上升运动。(2)低空急流异常偏强,降水强度不仅与低空急流的强度有关,而且与其厚度有关。当3.0 km高度保持低空急流的强度时,10 m·s^(-1)风速到达的高度越低,降雪强度越大。(3)700 hPa比湿超过4 g·kg-1、850 hPa比湿超过3 g·kg-1的持续时间均长达10 h以上,为极端暴雪过程提供了充足的水汽。850 hPa比湿和比湿平流远远高于“12·14”暴雪过程,是“11·7”过程最大累计降雪量大于“12·14”过程的原因之一。(4)“12·14”暴雪过程垂直运动旺盛,最大上升速度位于不稳定层顶的前沿,处于-20~-10℃层,有利于树枝状冰晶生长,降雪效率高。对流层整层温度低于0℃,雪花下落过程中没有融化,雪水比高,积雪深度大。“11·7”暴雪过程初期最大上升运动中心高度低,形成更多柱状冰晶,经过暖层时融化,雪水比低,积雪深度小于“12·14”暴雪过程。

泰山地形对一次副高边缘大暴雨过程影响的观测分析

利用区域加密自动气象站、雷达、风廓线及卫星等观测资料,分析了2022年秋季山东一次极端大暴雨事件中泰山山脉周围的降水分布及其产生这种分布的可能原因。结果表明:(1)这次山东大暴雨事件发生在对流层中、低层为强盛偏南气流的背景下,强降水时段集中在2022年10月1日23时至2日02时(北京时,下同),100 mm等雨量线呈“反弓形”横亘在泰山北侧与西侧,并各自伴有超170 mm的降水中心,而泰山南侧降水反而明显偏弱。(2)大暴雨分布带与地面上的中尺度涡旋-辐合线对应:泰山西侧的中尺度涡旋是山脉北侧冷性绕流与南侧暖性绕流相遇而形成的,导致泰山西侧出现强降水中心,降水呈单峰型;山脉北侧的辐合线长时间维持与重建过程,造成泰山北侧降水时间更长,累计降水量更大,小时降水量呈双峰型。(3)泰山北侧观测站的两个降水峰值与雷达反射率因子的两条平行回波带对应:位于泰山北坡处于长时间准静止状态的第一条回波带,与泰山北侧水平涡度环流的上升支气流对应,其形成机制是夜间具有强垂直切变特征的越山西南低空急流和近地面层受到山脉阻滞的东北气流构成的水平涡度强烈发展和维持的结果;第二条降水回波带与弱冷空气云系对应,当其靠近泰山北侧时受到越山西南低空气流背风坡上升支的影响,出现雷达反射率因子增强现象,与之对应的地面风场特征表征为辐合线的重建过程。(4)在泰山西侧,地面辐合线在低空冷空气的驱动下向东南方向移动,致使回波带逐渐演变成“反弓形”,造成强雨带也呈“反弓形”分布;而泰山南侧处于具有强烈垂直切变低空急流形成的水平涡度的下沉支控制下,因而降水量相较泰山北侧和西侧明显偏小。

2007年8月10-12日青岛地区特大暴雨过程分析

利用常规天气资料和红外卫星云图资料，分析了2007年8月10～12日青岛地区特大暴雨过程的环流背景、物理量场的特征及其演变，表明与本次暴雨过程有关的主要天气系统有三个：一是副热带高压的变化；二是冷空气与高空槽的作用；三是热带气旋水汽对暴雨的影响。本次降水过程是西风带弱冷空气，副热带高压边缘和热带气旋倒槽向北发展共同作用下发生的，是中-低纬度系统相互作用造成的。

2006年9月4-5日四川暴雨过程分析

2006年夏季川渝地区旱灾严重,入秋第一场暴雨过程迅速减弱了川渝地区的高温灾害,同时初步缓解了该地区的旱情,由于雨势强劲亦造成不少地区重大经济损失。采用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料对2006年9月4—5日发生在高原东侧的一次暴雨过程进行物理量的诊断分析。结果表明:本次过程中低空急流的位置与以往的过程不同,它出现在低压的北侧,加快了北方冷空气和水汽的输送,此外低空急流出现和消失都早于风场辐合区,是低压发生发展的动力条件。从视热源和视水汽汇分析表明本次降水积云对流活跃,以对流性降水为主。

低空急流与阿勒泰暖区大-暴雪

分析了冬季产生新疆低空急流的大型环流特征及低空急流与阿勒泰暖区大-暴雪的关系。结果表明;;中高纬度欧亚范围内呈现双阻型;;中亚中纬度高空维持纬向强急流锋区的情况下;;若有巴尔喀什湖以南的暖湿气流“”向北输送;;则有利于造成阿勒泰暖区大-暴雪的新疆低空急流产生。高低空急流的位置及强度可作为降雪量和大-暴雪落区的短期预报指标。

台风“暹芭”(2203)残涡陆上维持并引发大范围降水过程的成因

利用中国气象局上海台风研究所最佳路径数据、 FNL 0.25°×0.25°再分析资料和NOAA 0.5°×0.5°全球日降水数据分析了登陆台风“暹芭”残涡长时间维持并且产生大范围降水的成因。结果表明,第一阶段(2022年7月3-4日)“暹芭”残涡维持的主要水汽来源是偏南风低空急流,第二阶段(2022年7月5-6日)主要是偏南风低空急流和边界层东风急流共同作用,这使得大气可降水量达到罕见的75 mm。双低空急流的耦合形成的垂直风切变和水汽辐合为暴雨的发生和维持提供了良好的动力条件。冷空气开始入侵“暹芭”残涡后,在其西侧近地面形成冷池,这使得“暹芭”残涡逐渐变性为温带气旋,斜压动能发生显著增长。利用位势散度诊断发现,由于“暹芭”残涡不断北上接近副热带高空西风急流增大了高低层垂直风切变,高空冷涡携带的冷空气侵入“暹芭”残涡使其斜压性增大,边界层东风急流使得850hPa以下层结不稳定度显著增大,这为暴雨的发生和维持提供了不稳定能量条件。

辽东半岛一次湿下击暴流过程分析

2020年9月11日辽东半岛南部发生了一次强对流天气,并出现了湿下击暴流,大连金州得胜站地面最大阵风达到21.7 m·s^(-1)。本文利用常规气象资料、大连多普勒天气雷达资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心第5代全球再分析资料和高分辨率中尺度数值模拟资料,对此次湿下击暴流天气过程的环流背景、对流风暴发生发展环境及其回波特征等进行分析。结果表明:(1)此次强对流天气发生在北上台风变性形成的高空冷涡东部西南风与东南风的切变线上,地面辐合线和低空急流是触发初始对流的直接系统,初始对流在高空辐散耦合作用下发展加强;对流系统西移登陆至地面冷池与其东部暖空气之间形成锋生带上,辐合抬升作用加强,促使对流系统组织化程度更高、强度更强。(2)高温、高湿、对流不稳定层结是对流系统发生发展的有利环境条件。强对流发生前,探空曲线“上干下湿”、呈“V”型分布,抬升凝结高度明显下降;湿下击暴流发生时,径向速度垂直分布为中层径向辐合、低层辐散;瞬时大风出现前后,大连多普勒天气雷达在高、低仰角均探测到超过45 dBZ强反射率因子缺口,高仰角强反射率因子缺口先于低仰角出现,通过监测高仰角强反射率因子的变化,对湿下击暴流有一定的预警作用。