Urban Development Boundary Simulation Based on“Double Evaluation”and FLUS Model

The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space.“Double evaluation”is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land in the future and to determine the spatial distribution of urban construction land.This study combines the“double evaluation”with the FLUS(Future Land-Use Simulation)model to study the delimitation of the urban development boundary of Yichang.The results show that:(1)the“double evaluation”method comprehensively considers the carrying capacity of the resource environmental bear and the suitability of urban development;(2)the FLUS model can better couple the“double evaluation”method for Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)suitability evaluation,Land Use/land Cover Change(LUCC)simulation and urban development boundary delineation,and the overall accuracy of the simulation reaches 96%;(3)according to the requirements of relevant national policies,this study divides the urban development boundary of the study area into concentrated construction areas,elastic development areas and special purpose areas.This function-based division can meet the requirements of urban flexible development,ecological protection and urban safety.This research combines the FLUS model,which is widely used in the simulation of LUCC,with the double evaluation method used in China’s new round of land and space planning to obtain the result of the urban development boundary.This result is consistent with the existing plan of the study area.

The Application of Multiple Evaluating Methods on the Comprehensive Evaluation of Urban-rural Interaction and Conjunctional Development of China

Urban-rural interaction and conjunctionaldevelopment is the effective way of harmonizingurban-rural relationship and promoting urban-ruraldevelopment. However, there are differences in thelevel of urban-rural interaction and conjunctionaldevelopment of China. How to measure and reflectthe difference properly is a decision-makingfoundation for optimizing urban-rural developmentof different regions. The paper employs multiplemethods to evaluate and order the urban-ruralinteraction and conjunctional development of 31provinces (municipalities) in China. Kendall’s Wconsistency coefficient is employed to give a consistenttest for the evaluation result series, and the resultsof multiple methods are aggregated as the finalevaluation value. The results reflect the level ofregional urban-rural interaction and conjunctionaldevelopment in China.

Research on Planning & Evaluation for Track Traffic Under China's Sustainable Development Strategy

The author advances some basic problems of planning & evaluating for track traffic in the process of putting sustainable development strategy in practice and stresses the study of planning and evaluating method system for track traffic and environment strategy. Summaries and main creative points presented in the thesis are as follows: ①The changes of track traffic planning objects caused by the concept of sustainable development are analyzed; ②The theory & method of track traffic planning optimal decision is set up ; ③Environment impact assessment for track traffic planning is advanced; ⑤ Urban mass transit network planning is studied; ④Planning of intercity rail system——the alignment optimization of dedicated passenger line and high speed railway line is studied ; ⑥ An overall evaluation index system for sustainable development of track traffic planning is established; ⑦ The track traffic building capacity for sustainable development is studied. Further more, the effect of the method and models with empirical studies is verified. The corresponding application software is realized to provide information service and decision making support to track traffic planning for putting theory into practice.

Enlightenment of Brownfield Development Practices in China and Abroad on Urban Development of China

This study proposed obstacles in the brownfield development and analyzed 3 classical cases of brownfield development:German Ruhr Industrial Area,the American Automobile City and 798 Art Zone in China.Based on the comprehensive elaboration and evaluation of the driving factors,patterns,rehabilitation benefits,costs and prospects of brownfield development,its enlightenment on urban development of China was summarized from 4 perspectives:inhibiting urban sprawl,improving environmental quality of brownfield,promoting urban renewal and reserving cultural heritage.

TOPSIS-based Measurement and Analysis on Dynamics of Smart Lowcarbon Development for Major Chinese Cities

The smart low-carbon development of modern cities has become one of the academic hotspots.However,the dynamics is rarely involved.Therefore,TOPSIS method was used to take a quantitative study on the dynamics of smart low-carbon development for major Chinese cities.The results showed that:(1) 3 main dynamics of smart lowcarbon city development in China are institution and culture conditions,facility and function conditions and economy and industry conditions,but the overall utility is relatively low;(2) the level of dynamic operation mechanism of smart low-carbon development for major Chinese cities is distinct between regions,indicating a spatial law of diminishing from the east to the west and differing within regions;(3) the imbalance of comprehensive dynamic mechanism and operation state between major cities is prominent,showing an urban scale law of decreasing from big to small and differing within each scale and an administration hierarchy law of descending from high to low and differing within each class;(4) 7 basic development patterns can be obtained,and most of the cities take the external strong internal weak mode,which basically matches with its development realities.

共同富裕目标下的高质量县域城镇化评价体系建构

共同富裕是中国式现代化的重要特征,城镇化是实现中国式现代化的必由之路。当前,县域城镇化建设中存在区域发展不平衡、城乡差距不断扩大、基础设施建设不健全、公共服务配套不完善等问题,制约了共同富裕的实现。如何构建一个科学合理的评价体系来评估县域城镇化的发展水平和城乡融合的实现程度,对于推动县域城镇化健康发展、实现共同富裕具有重要意义。在系统回顾已有共同富裕历史渊源与理论内涵的基础上,探究县域城镇化促进共同富裕的内在机理,基于系统性、科学性、客观性和前瞻性原则,依据统计年鉴数据及由“浙江大学—浙江移动数据智能与城市未来联合实验室”开发的“科研数智通”(DIPS)平台大数据,从收入公平、消费公平和城乡融合三大评价维度(一级指标)出发构建了包含9项二级指标和26项三级指标的县域城镇化评价体系。该体系有助于多维度、多视角、多主体评价县域城镇化发展情况,支持并引导县域城镇化高质量发展。

延续与求变——中国城市交通发展战略演进

城市交通发展战略是城市交通发展的长期纲领,既有需要坚持与延续的目标,也有需要调整的内容与重点。总结国内外城市交通发展战略的内涵特征,将城市交通发展置于中国城镇化、机动化、治理现代化的大背景中,系统梳理1995年《中国城市交通发展战略》和2024年《面向2035年中国城市交通发展战略》的时代特征、编制过程、内容特色、行动重点。在回顾中国城市交通发展战略的作用与城市交通发展路径选择的基础上,解读城市交通作为城市基础公共服务的新定位与新要求,比较两版城市交通发展战略在目标、评价标准上的继承性,在重点行动、任务要求上的拓展与调整,由此进一步阐述重新制定中国城市交通发展战略的初心与目的,期望为进入城镇化、机动化下半场的中国城市交通发展凝聚更多共识、坚定发展方向。

Uncertainty evaluation of the coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy in Changsha city

The coordinated development of human settlement environment and economy is of vital significance to urban sustainable development and urban ecosystem health. Urban human settlement and economic systems exist in urban ecosystems, which are a structural complexity. Therefore the research is being challenged by some uncertain factors between human settlements and economic systems. However most of the researches were focused on its determinate objective aspects and qualitative analyses while less concern on the quanti- tative evaluation of coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy, especially little on its uncertain aspect. At present, the urgent task is to study the coordinated development of urban settlement environment and economy in terms of the effect of uncertainty. This study analyzed the uncertain characteristics, which would be confronted at different stages, such as confirming the index categories, their bound values, and their construction rate, etc. According to the actual urban conditions, many construction principles based on uncertainties are put forward and an indicating system for human settlement and economic evaluation is established. Moreover, the application of fuzzy mathematics presents a new method and a calculation model for the comprehensive assessment of the coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy. The application of the method and model in Changsha city of China showed that the assessment results can reflect not only the overall coordination degree of the city, but also the mode of interactive mechanism between urban economic system and human settlement environment.

城镇居民就业质量评价及其时空演变——基于共享发展视角

本研究基于共享发展视角,构建既能体现发展性又能体现共享性的就业质量评价指标体系,对2010—2021年我国28个省份的城镇居民就业质量进行综合评价及时空演变分析。研究发现:我国城镇居民就业质量稳步上升,同时呈现出明显的空间不均衡现象。从差异变化来看,城镇居民就业质量的空间差异系数明显下降,主要原因是区域间差异的缩小。从空间相关性来看,城镇居民就业质量存在着显著但较小的正向空间自相关性,同时高值省份对周围省份的正向影响逐渐变弱,而低值省份对周围省份的负向影响有所增强。从子系统来看,发展子系统和共享子系统的协调程度有所提升,但仍存在进步的空间。从障碍因子分析来看,工作收入的平均水平和居民幸福感的差异程度是制约城镇居民就业质量提升的主要因素。

城市交通承载力系统动力学评估及多情景预测

为了城市交通的可持续发展,对城市交通承载力的可靠性进行评估和情景预测。重新定义了城市交通承载力,构建基于系统动力学的计算模型。以兰州市为例,对2023-2030年的未来交通在5种情景发展模式下的交通承载力进行可靠性评估和预测。结果表明:系统动力学模型具有较高的精度水平,绝对误差在3%以内。兰州市在5种设定情景下,2030年资源承载力均处于临界可靠状态;环境承载力在环境改善型时达到最高30.88,为基本可靠;社会经济承载力在综合发展时达到最大24.8,为临界可靠。分别提升交通资源和社会经济都会提升相应的子系统承载力,然而交通环境承载力却具有一定的下降趋势,这符合城市交通实际情况,验证了系统之间存在着复杂的正负反馈关系。城市交通承载力呈现出逐步提升的趋势,将在2026年以后均达到20以上,处于临界可靠区间。且综合发展型提升效果最好,2030年相比2022年增长47.2%,已接近基本可靠区间。

Relational pattern of urbanization and economic development：Parameter re-evaluation of the Chenery model

Research has shown that there has been a significant change in the quantitative relationship between urbanization and economic development over the past 50 years. As a result of this change, the Chenery model is no longer capable of performing a comparative analysis of these parameters. We carried out a regression analysis of the normal form of the relation between urbanization and economic development on the basis of the Chenery model. We used empirical data from 149 countries and regions from 1990 to 2009 and adopted the double logarithmic model, introducing a time series variable for urbanization. From 1990 to 2009, with a per capita gross national income remaining between USD 1000 and 10,000, the urbanization rate changed from 17.78 to 60.36% and the relational matching data changed accordingly, although the upper limit of the rate of urbanization remained at about 75%. Urbanization in countries with a smaller population size was more affected by economic development than urbanization in countries with large and medium sized populations.

中国式现代化进程下城乡融合发展——评价体系与动态测度

城乡融合发展是中国式现代化进程下实现共同富裕的必由之路,也是中国必须长期坚持的发展战略。基于中国式现代化特征,构建涵盖融合动力与融合目标的城乡融合发展评价体系,利用2012—2021年省域数据进行城乡融合发展水平测度。结果显示:各省区市融合动力存在明显差异,东部地区融合动力总体较强,中、西部地区较弱,东北地区则出现明显下降;融合目标达成总体较低,仅北京、上海、浙江、广东城乡融合目标达成度较高;中部、西部、东北部地区总体处于城乡融合发展中低水平段。各省区市城乡融合发展动力与目标达成均存在省域差距明显,东部与中、西部总体水平差距较大的缺陷。长期来看,中国城乡融合发展任务十分艰巨。基于实证研究结论,提出中国式现代化进程下推进城乡融合发展的政策建议,包括构建城乡统一的要素市场、促进城乡产业融合发展、优化现有城乡利益分配格局、提升公共产品供给水平。

A study on the dynamic evaluation of urbanization development quality:An example of 9 counties in Lishui City, Zhejiang Province

As an important indicator to measure the economic development and modern civilization of a country or region, the evaluation of urbanization development quality is a complex systematic project, which is helpful to clarify the strengths and weaknesses and regulate and guide the development strategies. Based on hierarchical analysis, geographically weighted regression analysis and cluster analysis, this paper takes Lishui City, Zhejiang Province as an example and selects 1 primary indicator, 4 secondary indicators and 17 tertiary indicators to construct an urbanization development evaluation index system and make an objective evaluation of the development status. The results show that: the level of urbanization development in Lishui City is relatively backward in the province, but the development trend is good;in terms of spatial correlation, the development of 9 counties and districts is relatively close, among which Qingtian County plays a key role in the development of urbanization in Lishui City;in terms of cluster analysis, the city’s 9 counties and districts can be divided into "agglomeration enhancement type" and "coordination In terms of cluster analysis, the city’s 9 counties and districts can be divided into three major types." Cluster Enhancement Type", "Coordination Promotion Type" and"Weak Development Type". In addition, countermeasures are proposed according to the development status to provide some reference for the future development of Lishui City and similar cities.

基于代谢理论的城市群水资源承载力综合评价

【目的】随着中国城市群的可持续发展,水资源短缺和时空分布不均等问题日益突出,水资源承载力对城市群的可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义【方法】基于区域水资源代谢理论,构建综合考虑区域水资源特征、社会经济系统特征和可持续发展原则的评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS计算了2019年京津冀城市群(BTHUA)的水资源承载力(WRCC)指数。在综合分析区域水资源现状的基础上,提出了提高区域水资源承载力的建议。【结果】结果显示:2019年BTHUA的整体承载能力指数并不高,北京市(0.5612)、天津市(0.5306)和唐山市(0.4075)评分较高,WRCC处于中等水平,仍有进一步发展的潜力。石家庄市(0.3843)、秦皇岛市(0.3165)、衡水市(0.2952)、承德市(0.2935)和邢台市(0.2674)评分中等,WRCC达到了临界值,并且发展潜力有限。而廊坊市(0.2214)、邯郸市(0.2188)、张家口市(0.2115)、保定市(0.2086)、沧州市(0.2026)评分偏低,WRCC达到上限,进一步发展的潜力非常有限。【结论】根据物质流分析,(1)水资源系统上,京津冀地区整体水资源生产能力不容乐观,水资源开发潜力不足;(2)社会经济上,BTHUA社会规模已经超过了水资源的承载能力,未来还将继续扩大;(3)生态系统上,除北京、天津、秦皇岛市,其余城市生态用水占比皆达不到标准。该研究考虑整个用水系统,可以得到比其他方法更全面、更准确的水资源承载力状况,可以为制定科学、可持续的水资源发展战略提供参考,并提供水资源利用政策和未来社会经济发展的建议。

“安全—发展”同构视角下的城市系统韧性评价——以东部沿海地区省会城市为例

在现代化高速发展的时代,不确定性风险已成为城市系统运行中面临的常态。基于“安全—发展”同构视角,构建城市系统韧性框架与评价指标体系,运用熵权—灰色关联法对我国东部沿海地区省会城市的系统韧性水平进行综合测算,并根据演变趋势及特征进行评价。研究表明,我国东部沿海地区大部分省会城市的系统韧性水平在研究期内呈波动上升态势,各城市的子系统韧性水平分异明显,其中基础设施韧性和社会韧性是城市系统韧性水平差异的主导因素,当年实际使用外资、排水管道密度、专利授权数和交通货运总量是影响东部沿海地区省会城市系统韧性的主要指标。

基于熵值法的荆州市新型城镇化发展分析

伴随着湖北省荆州市新型城镇化进程的不断推进,对其发展现状的跟踪定位有利于不断优化其进程。本研究以荆州市为调查对象,结合299份有效问卷,分析受访者基本信息和城镇化发展情况,并运用熵值法进行荆州市新型城镇化发展指标构建,以其城镇化发展相关指标影响作用大小分析当前荆州市新型城镇化发展现状。研究发现:当前荆州市新型城镇化过程中存在年轻人才流失、居民文化程度较低、新型城镇化发展仍有上升空间等问题。最后,从加强城镇化产业培育,增加居民就业机会;持续加大新型城镇化引导力度,增加群众政策认可;重视教育普及,建立青年人才吸引机制;持续优化物流体系,完善基础设施建设;强调可持续发展理念,继续加强资源环境保护等方面提出了进一步助推荆州市新型城镇化发展的建议。

Pathway Planning of Nuclear Power Development Incorporating Assessment of Nuclear Event Risk

The nuclear event risk(NER)is an important and disputed factor that should be reasonably considered when planning the pathway of nuclear power development(NPD)to assess the benefits and risks of developing nuclear power more objectively.This paper aims to explore the impact of nuclear events on NPD pathway planning.The influence of nuclear events is quantified as a monetary risk component,and an optimization model that incorporates the NER in the objective function is proposed.To optimize the pathway of NPD in the lowcarbon transition course of power supply structure evolution,a simulation model is built to deduce alternative NPD pathways and corresponding power supply evolution scenarios under the constraint of an exogenously assigned carbon emission pathway(CEP);moreover,a method is proposed to describe the CEP by superimposing the maximum carbon emission space and each carbon emission reduction(CER)component,and various CER components are clustered considering the emission reduction characteristics and resource endowments of different power generation technologies.A case study is conducted to explore the impact of NER and its risk valuation uncertainty on NPD pathway planning.The method presented in this paper allows the impact of nuclear events on NPD pathway planning to be quantified and improves the level of coordinated optimization of benefits and risks.

城镇开发边界划定智慧技术集成研究——基于人居环境科学视角

城镇开发边界是空间增长底线的管控工具,与人类活动和人居环境建设密切相关。科学划定城镇开发边界需要人居环境科学和智慧技术有机结合。现有对城镇开发边界划定技术背后的理论支撑研究不足,对人居环境全系统尤其是人的因素关注不够,同时各类技术探索相对碎片化,缺乏对边界划定全流程技术的整合与集成应用。本文以人居环境科学为理论内核,从人的需求、人居环境的系统性和复杂性出发,提出系统耦合“双评价”、系统动力学模型、城镇开发潜力评价模型及多情景地理模拟等关键技术的城镇开发边界划定的智慧技术集成框架,科学支撑城镇发展需求预测、国土空间格局研判和城镇用地布局调控,为城镇开发边界划定和国土空间格局优化提供有益借鉴。

中心城市外围县域城乡融合模式与效应研究--以哈尔滨市呼兰区为例

通过分析城乡融合发展效应,从经济效应、社会效应、空间效应和生态效应4个维度,共同构成了城乡融合发展效应评价指标体系,对2013年-2019年呼兰区城乡融合发展进程进行了分析,归纳了它所采用的城乡融合发展模式,同时进一步评估这种模式下的城乡融合发展成效。研究结果显示,呼兰区是一个“产业-空间-制度”多维协同,“城-镇-村”三级联动,呼兰区共同发展的城乡融合模式。2013-2019年间,呼兰区城乡融合发展总体效应呈波动变化的趋势。经济效应方面,阶段差异较明显;社会效应方面,也具有较明显的阶段差异;空间效应方面,总体呈缓慢上升趋势;生态效应方面,发展不明显。

基于熵值法的成渝城市群城市化水平综合评测

成渝城市群作为具有全国影响力的区域经济中心,其城市发展历程对中国城市化建设具有重要指引作用。基于区域城市化水平综合评测方法构建城市化综合测评体系,结合熵值法综合评估成渝城市群主要节点城市2000-2020年的发展状况,结果表明:(1)成渝城市群城市化的发展主要以经济城市化为主,空间城市化和社会城市化发展次之,人口城市化发展占比最低。(2)节点城市指标层分析发现,重庆市和成都市的发展质量远超其余城市,重庆市城市化演变表现为经济、人口、空间、社会共同发展,而成都市在人口城市化发展上稍显缓慢。(3)德阳、绵阳等大型城市在城市化发展上均有所提升,在社会城市化较强的基础上加速发展经济,空间和人口的城市化发展力度则有所减缓。