How Frequently Will the Persistent Heavy Rainfall over the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin in Summer 2020 Happen under Global Warming?

The middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)suffered persistent heavy rainfall in summer 2020,with nearly continuous rainfall for about six consecutive weeks.How the likelihood of persistent heavy rainfall resembling that which occurred over the MLYRB in summer 2020(hereafter 2020PHR-like event)would change under global warming is investigated.An index that reflects maximum accumulated precipitation during a consecutive five-week period in summer(Rx35day)is introduced.This accumulated precipitation index in summer 2020 is 60%stronger than the climatology,and a statistical analysis further shows that the 2020 event is a 1-in-70-year event.The model projection results derived from the 50-member ensemble of CanESM2 and the multimodel ensemble(MME)of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event will dramatically increase under global warming.Based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test,one-third of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models that have reasonable performance in reproducing the 2020PHR-like event in their historical simulations are selected for the future projection study.The CMIP5 and CMIP6 MME results show that the occurrence probability of the 2020PHR-like event under the present-day climate will be double under lower-emission scenarios(CMIP5 RCP4.5,CMIP6 SSP1-2.6,and SSP2-4.5)and 3-5 times greater under higher-emission scenarios(3.0 times for CMIP5 RCP8.5,2.9 times for CMIP6 SSP3-7.0,and 4.8 times for CMIP6 SSP5-8.5).The inter-model spread of the probability change is small,lending confidence to the projection results.The results provide a scientific reference for mitigation of and adaptation to future climate change.

Study of the Early and Middle Triassic Lower Yangtze Sea Basin

The Early and Middle Triassic primary lower Yangtze sea basin was formed before the Yangtze and Sino. Korean blocks collided and were assembled. showing the characteristics of an open continental shelf.continental margin sea. In order to provide evidence useful for oil and gas exploration in the studied region, this paper centres on the features of the sediments and their facies framework in the basin and the sedimentation parameters such as the deposition rate, palaeotemperature, palaeosatinity, palaeodepth of water and palaeocurrents of the basin.

Characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alternation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the relationship with ENSO

During recent decades, more frequent flood-drought alternations have been seen in China as a result of global climate change and intensive human activities, which have sig- nificant implications on water and food security. To better identify the characteristics of flood-drought alternations, we proposed a modified dry-wet abrupt alternation index （DWAAI） and applied the new method in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin （YRB-ML） to analyze the long-term spatio-temporal characteristics of dry-wet abrupt alterna- tion （DWAA） events based on the daily precipitation observations at 75 rainfall stations in summer from 1960 to 2015. We found that the DWAA events have been spreading in the study area with higher frequency and intensity since 1960. In particular, the DWAA events mainly occurred in May and June in the northwest of the YRB-ML, including Hanjiang River Basin, the middle reaches of the YRB, north of Dongting Lake and northwest of Poyang Lake. In addition, we also analyzed the impact of El Nifio Southern Oscillation （ENSO） on DWAA events in the YRB-ML. The results showed that around 41.04% of DWAA events occurred during the declining stages of La Nifia or within the subsequent 8 months after La Nina, which implies that La Nina events could be predictive signals of DWAA events. Besides, significant negative correlations have been found between the modified DWAAI values of all the rainfall stations and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region within the 6 months prior to the DWAA events, particularly for the Poyang Lake watershed and the middle reaches of the YRB. This study has significant implications on the flood and drought control and water resources management in the YRB-ML under the challenge of future climate change.

Reserve network planning for fishes in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin by systematic conservation approaches

Although China has established more than 600 wetland nature reserves, conservation gaps still exist for many species, especially for freshwater fishes. Underlying this problem is the fact that top-level planning is missing in the construction of nature reserves. To promote the development of nature reserves for fishes, this study took the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin(MLYRB) as an example to carry out top-level reserve network planning for fishes using approaches of systematic conservation planning. Typical fish species living in freshwater habitats were defined and considered in the planning. Based on sample data collected from large quantities of literatures, continuous distribution patterns of 142 fishes were obtained with species distribution modeling and subsequent processing, and the distributions of another eleven species were artificially designated. With the distribution pattern of species, Marxan was used to carry out conservation planning. To obtain ideal solutions with representativeness, persistence, and efficiency, parameters were set with careful consideration regarding existing wetland reserves, human disturbances, hydrological connectivity, and representation targets of species. Marxan produced the selection frequency of planning units(PUs) and a best solution. Selection frequency indicates the relative protection importance of a PU. The best solution is a representative of ideal fish reserve networks. Both of the PUs with high selection frequency and those in the best solution have low proportions included in existing wetland nature reserves, suggesting that there are significant conservation gaps for fish species in MLYRB. The best solution could serve as a reference for establishing a fish reserve network in the MLYRB. There is great flexibility for replacing selected PUs in the solution, and such flexibility facilitates the implementation of the solution in reality in case of unexpected obstacles. Further, we suggested adopting a freshwater management framework in the implementation of such solution.