Characterization and spatial analysis of coseismic landslides triggered by the Luding Ms 6.8 earthquake in the Xianshuihe fault zone, Southwest China

On September 5, 2022, a magnitude Ms 6.8 earthquake occurred along the Moxi fault in the southern part of the Xianshuihe fault zone located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,resulting in severe damage and substantial economic loss. In this study, we established a coseismic landslide database triggered by Luding Ms 6.8 earthquake, which includes 4794 landslides with a total area of 46.79 km^(2). The coseismic landslides primarily consisted of medium and small-sized landslides, characterized by shallow surface sliding. Some exhibited characteristics of high-position initiation resulted in the obstruction or partial obstruction of rivers, leading to the formation of dammed lakes. Our research found that the coseismic landslides were predominantly observed on slopes ranging from 30° to 50°, occurring at between 1000 m and 2500 m, with slope aspects varying from 90° to 180°. Landslides were also highly developed in granitic bodies that had experienced structural fracturing and strong-tomoderate weathering. Coseismic landslides concentrated within a 6 km range on both sides of the Xianshuihe and Daduhe fault zones. The area and number of coseismic landslides exhibited a negative correlation with the distance to fault lines, road networks, and river systems, as they were influenced by fault activity, road excavation, and river erosion. The coseismic landslides were mainly distributed in the southeastern region of the epicenter, exhibiting relatively concentrated patterns within the IX-degree zones such as Moxi Town, Wandong River basin, Detuo Town to Wanggangping Township. Our research findings provide important data on the coseismic landslides triggered by the Luding Ms 6.8 earthquake and reveal the spatial distribution patterns of these landslides. These findings can serve as important references for risk mitigation, reconstruction planning, and regional earthquake disaster research in the earthquake-affected area.

Investigating the reactivation of historical landslides during the 2022 Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquake

On September 5,2022,a strong earthquake with a magnitude of MS6.8 struck Luding County in Sichuan Province,China,triggering thousands of landslides along the Dadu River in the northwest-southeast(NW-SE)direction.We investigated the reactivation characteristics of historical landslides within the epicentral area of the Luding earthquake to identify the initiation mechanism of earthquake-induced landslides.Records of the two newly triggered and historical landslides were analyzed using manual and threshold methods;the spatial distribution of landslides was assessed in relation to topographical and geological factors using remote sensing images.This study sheds light on the spatial distribution patterns of landslides,especially those that occur above historical landslide areas.Our results revealed a similarity in the spatial distribution trends between historical landslides and new ones induced by earthquakes.These landslides tend to be concentrated within a range of 0.2 km from the river and 2 km from the fault.Notably,both rivers and faults predominantly influenced the reactivation of historical landslides.Remarkably,the reactivated landslides are characterized by their small to medium size and are predominantly situated in historical landslide zones.The number of reactivated landslides surpassed that of previously documented historical landslides within the study area.We provide insights into the critical factors responsible for historical landslides during the 2022 Luding earthquake,thereby enhancing our understanding of the potential implications for future co-seismic hazard assessments and mitigation strategies.

Preliminary report of the September 5,2022 M_(S) 6.8 Luding earthquake,Sichuan,China

The 2022 M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake is the strongest earthquake in Sichuan Province, Western China, since the 2017 M_(S)7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. It occurred on the Moxi fault in the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault, a tectonically active and mountainous region with severe secondary earthquake disasters. To better understand the seismogenic mechanism and provide scientific support for future hazard mitigation, we summarize the preliminary results of the Luding earthquake, including seismotectonic background, seismicity and mainshock source characteristics and aftershock properties, and direct and secondary damage associated with the mainshock.The peak ground displacements in the NS and EW directions observed by the nearest GNSS station SCCM are ~35 mm and ~55 mm, respectively, resulting in the maximum coseismic dislocation of 20 mm along the NWW direction, which is consistent with the sinistral slip on the Xianshuihe fault. Back-projection of teleseismic P waves suggest that the mainshock rupture propagated toward south-southeast. The seismic intensity of the mainshock estimated from the back-projection results indicates a Mercalli scale of Ⅷ or above near the ruptured area,consistent with the results from instrumental measurements and field surveys. Numerous aftershocks were reported, with the largest being M_(S)4.5. Aftershock locations(up to September 18, 2022) exhibit 3 clusters spanning an area of 100 km long and 30 km wide. The magnitude and rate of aftershocks decreased as expected, and the depths became shallower with time. The mainshock and two aftershocks show left-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. For the aftershock sequence, the b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, h-value, and p-value for Omori’s law for aftershock decay are 0.81, 1.4, and 1.21, respectively, indicating that this is a typical mainshock-aftershock sequence. The low b-value implies high background stress in the hypocenter region. Analysis from remote sensing satellite images and UAV data shows that the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides was consistent with the aftershock area. Numerous small-size landslides with limited volumes were revealed, which damaged or buried the roads and severely hindered the rescue process.

Coseismic landslide sediment increased by the“9.5”Luding earthquake,Sichuan,China

The"9.5"Luding earthquake(Ms 6.8),which occurred on September 5,2022,has triggered thousands of landslides,and caused coseismic landslide sediment in the mountain basin to increase significantly.After the Luding earthquake,landslide sediment may continue to divert to channels,and increase the activity of debris flows.Importantly,the formation of debris flows can pose a major threat to infrastructure,lives and property.To better understand the landslide sediment that increased by the"9.5"Luding earthquake and its impact on the activity of debris flows,we mapped the coseismic landslide database using satellite images.A total of9142 landslides with an area of 49.51 km^(2),covering4.81%of the whole basin,were triggered by the Luding earthquake.The coseismic landslides induced by this earthquake are dominated by shallow landslides and are densely distributed in the combined zone of the Xianshuihe fault and the Daduhe fault.Approximately 333.31×10^(6)m^(3)(error:111.43×10^(6)m^(3)/-70.73×10^(6)m^(3))of coseismic landslide sediments were induced by the earthquake in the epicenter,and the landslide materials were concentrated downstream of the basins.In addition.more than 13986.45×10^(4)m^(3)(error:4675.67×10^(4)m^(3)/-2967.92×10^(4)m^(3))of landslide sediment may supply for debris flow occurrence.Simultaneously,the small basins that are distributed near Moxi,Detuo and the junction of the Xianshuihe fault and Daduhe fault are more susceptible to debris flows when rainstorms hit these regions.Therefore,prevention and mitigation measures,early warning,and land use planning should be adopted in advance in these regions.However,from the perspectives of landslide scale and the degree of landslide-channel coupling,the activity or active intensity of debris flows in the Luding earthquake area may be lower than that in the epicenter area of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

An accessible strong-motion dataset(PGA,PGV,and site v_(S30))of 2022 M_(S)6.8 Luding,China Earthquake

A M_(S)6.8 earthquake occurred on 5th September 2022 in Luding county,Sichuan,China,at 12:52 Beijing Time(4:52 UTC).We complied a dataset of PGA,PGV,and site vS30 of 73 accelerometers and 791 Micro-Electro-Mechanical System(MEMS)sensors within 300 km of the epicenter.The inferred v_(S30)of 820 recording sites were validated.The study results show that:(1)The maximum horizontal PGA and PGV reaches 634.1 Gal and 71.1 cm/s respectively.(2)Over 80%of records are from soil sites.(3)The v_(S30)proxy model of Zhou J et al.(2022)is superior than that of Wald and Allen(2007)and performs well in the study area.The dataset was compiled in a flat file that consists the information of strong-motion instruments,the strong-motion records,and the v_(S30)of the recording sites.The dataset is available at https://www.seismisite.net.

Simulating the strong ground motion of the 2022 MS6.8 Luding,Sichuan,China Earthquake

Stochastic finite-fault simulations are effective for simulating ground motions and are widely used in engineering to determine the impacts of ground motion and develop relevant predictive equations.In this study,the source,path,and site amplification coefficient of western Sichuan Province,China,and stochastic finite-fault simulations were used to simulate the acceleration time series,Fourier amplitude spectra,and 5%damped response spectra of 28 strong-motion stations with rupture distances within 300 km of the 2022 MS6.8 Luding earthquake.The simulation results of 14 stations at rupture distances of 45-185 km match the observation.However,the simulation results of 3 near-and 6 far-field stations at rupture distances of 12-36 km and 222-286 km,respectively,were obviously deviated from the observations.Simulation results of the near-field stations are larger than the observations at high frequencies(>6 Hz).The discrepancy likely comes from the nonlinear site effect of near-field stations,which reduced the site amplification at high frequencies.Simulation result of the far-field stations is smaller than the observation at frequencies above 1 Hz.As these stations are located close to the Longmenshan Fault Zone(LFZ),thus,we obtained a new quality factor(Q)from data of historical events and stations located around LFZ.Using the new Q value,the discrepancies of the high-frequency simulation results of the far-field stations were corrected.This result indicated that the laterally varying Q values can be used to address the impact of strong crustal lateral heterogeneity on simulation.

An open-accessed inventory of landslides triggered by the M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake,China on September 5,2022

This study constructs a preliminary inventory of landslides triggered by the M_(S) 6.8 Luding earthquake based on field investigation and human-computer interaction visual interpretation on optical satellite images.The results show that this earthquake triggered at least 5007 landslides,with a total landslide area of 17.36 km^(2),of which the smallest landslide area is 65 m^(2)and the largest landslide area reaches 120747 m^(2),with an average landslide area of about 3500 m^(2).The obtained landslides are concentrated in the IX intensity zone and the northeast side of the seismogenic fault,and the area density and point density of landslides are 13.8%,and 35.73 km^(-2) peaks with 2 km as the search radius.It should be noted that the number of landslides obtained in this paper will be lower than the actual situation because some areas are covered by clouds and there are no available post-earthquake remote sensing images.Based on the available post-earthquake remote sensing images,the number of landslides triggered by this earthquake is roughly estimated to be up to 10000.This study can be used to support further research on the distribution pattern and risk evaluation of the coseismic landslides in the region,and the prevention and control of landslide hazards in the seismic area.

Source rupture characteristics of the September 5,2022 Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquake at the Xianshuihe fault zone in southwest China

On September 5,2022,at Beijing time 12:52 p.m.,an M_(S)6.8 earthquake struck Luding County,GarzêTibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province.The epicenter of the earthquake was at the intersection of the Sichuan-Yunnan,Bayankala,and South China blocks.The tectonic background is extremely complex,and strong earthquakes occur frequently.Based on a predetermined focal location and focal mechanism solution for the earthquake,we reversed the focal depth and rupture process of the earthquake by fitting the teleseismic P and SH waves recorded by the global seismic network.The results show that the focal depth is 16 km,with the main rupture having a length of about 45 km near the epicenter,with a maximum displacement of 1.02 m.Although the rupture mainly propagates from the north–northwest(NNW)to the south–southeast(SSE)along the fault strike,there is a small-scale rupture slip zone at shallow depths in the north–northeast(NNE)direction along the epicenter of the seismogenic fault.This rupture image corresponds to the cluster distribution of aftershocks in the NNW and SSE directions starting from the epicenter,corresponding to the distribution of recorded landslides.The earthquake occurred on the Moxi fault,located in the southeastern section of the Xianshuihe fault.The major tectonic feature in this area is the southeastward movement of the Chuandian block relative to the Bayanhar block.

Distribution patterns of landslides triggered by the 2022 Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake,Sichuan,China

At 12:52 pm on September 5,2022,an Ms 6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding County,Sichuan Province,China.Based on high-resolution aerial photographs and satellite imageries obtained after the earthquake,as well as field investigation,a total of 8685 earthquake-triggered landslides(EQTLs)were interpreted.The landslides covered an area of 30.7km^(2),with a source area of 9.4 km^(2).These EQTLs were mainly distributed in areas with a seismic intensity of VIII and IX.Most of the landslides were small and medium in size,and their types included landslide,rockfall,and rock slump.Characteristic landslide distributions were found,EQTLs were distributed along the Xianshuihe fault,landslide area decreased gradually with an increased distance to the fault;EQTLs were distributed along the Daduhe River and roads;besides,landslide distribution was associated with ground deformation caused by the earthquake.EQTLs’characteristics indicated that,a large number of EQTLs were located near the foot of the slope;the full area of EQTLs and their source area followed a power function.This study concluded that Luding EQTLs were greater in number and area but relatively smaller in terms of affected area.Investigations on geo-hazards post-earthquake and risk assessment were proposed in the earthquake-stricken area to support the rehabilitation and reconstruction.

Is the September 5,2022,Luding MS6.8 earthquake an‘unexpected’event?

After the September 5,2022(Beijing time).Luding Ms6.8 earthquake(29.59°N.102.08°E.depth 16 km.according to the initial determination by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)).field investigation was carried out by the China Earthquake Administration(CEA).which associated the earthquake to the Moxi segment on the south part of the Xianshuihe fault system.This segment,with horizontal slip rate 5-10 mm/a.locates in the convergent part among the Xianshuihe fault.

Preliminary results on a near-real-time rock slope damage monitoring system based on relative velocity changes following the September 5,2022 M_(S) 6.8 Luding,China earthquake

Relative seismic velocity change(dv/v)is important for monitoring changes in subsurface material properties and evaluating earthquake-induced rock slope damage in a geological disaster-prone region.In this paper,we present a rapid damage assessment on three slow-moving rock slopes by measuring dv/v decrease caused by the 2022 M_(S) 6.8 Luding earthquake in Southwest China.By applying the stretching method to the cross-correlated seismic wavefields between sensors installed on each slope,we obtain earthquake-induced dv/v decreases of~2.1%,~0.5%,and~0.2%on three slopes at distances ranging from~86 to~370 km to the epicenter,respectively.Moreover,based on seismic data recorded by 16 sensors deployed on the rock slope at a distance of~370 km away from the epicenter,a localized dv/v decease region was observed at the crest of the slope by calculating the spatial dv/v images before and after the earthquake.We also derive an empirical in situ stress sensitivity of -7.29×10^(-8)/Pa by relating the dv/v change to the measured peak dynamic stresses.Our results indicate that a rapid dv/v assessment not only can help facilitate on-site emergency response to earthquakeinduced secondary geological disasters but also can provide a better understanding of the subsurface geological risks under diverse seismic loadings.

Rapid assessment of the September 5,2022 M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake in Sichuan,China

At 12:52,September 5,2022,an M_(S)6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan.The earthquake caused serious casualties and property loss,and was determined to have an epicenter intensity of Ⅸ degree.In this study,we used three earthquake intensity rapid assessment methods(i.e.WFM,BPM and ASM) to evaluate the intensity of this earthquake.Then,we comparatively analyzed the three methods based on strong ground motion observation data and actual intensity maps.The results show that:(1) The earthquake is associated with a southeast-oriented single-sided rupture.The WFM method can only evaluate earthquakes with two-sided ruptures,which has some limitations;(2) The intensity of BPM and ASM was overestimated on the southwest and north sides of the epicenter,but other high-intensity zones were similar to the intensities measured by actual surveys;(3) The residuals of the three intensity assessment methods were all between-0.5 and 1.Although a small number of stations were underestimated,the overall residuals were good,and the residuals gradually approached 0 with the increase of distance;(4) The number of towns and villages evaluated by the three methods in the earthquake area was almost all lower than the field survey results.One exception is the area of Ⅷ degree,where the BPM and ASM were higher than the survey results;(5) The area of the earthquake area evaluated by the three methods was low in Ⅵ and Ⅶ degree,moderate in Ⅷ degree,and low in Ⅸ degree(the area from ASM is similar to the area measured by actual survey).Overall,ASM is applicable to this earthquake intensity assessment.

Focal mechanism of Luding M 6.8 earthquake, September 2022 and analysis of the loading role of the tectonic stress on the seismogenic fault

To reveal the seismogenic mechanism of the Luding earthquake, we employed the 118 China Seismic Network stations to collect the P-wave polarity data from each station, which was then used in the P-wave first motion approach to calculate the focal mechanism solution of the M6.8 Luding earthquake that occurred on September 5,2022. We have also studied the loading effect of tectonic stress on the Luding earthquake fault based on the stress field data for the research area. The results indicate that this earthquake was a strike-slip type, the nodal plane I:strike 167°, dip angle 78°, slip angle 2°;Nodal plane II: strike 77°, dip angle 88°, slip angle 168°. The two fault planes’ instability coefficients of the Luding earthquake are examined considering the region’s background stress field’s condition. The nodal plane I in the Moho circle is discovered to practically coincide with the Coulomb failure line and the tangent point of the Moho circle, indicating that this nodal plane has a high instability coefficient compared to the nodal plane II. The conclusion is that the nodal plane I has a higher likelihood of being the seismogenic fault plane, which is congruent with the seismogenic fault plane suggested by the aftershock distribution, the earthquake radiation energy distribution of a single station, and seismic intensity distribution.The Luding earthquake’s focal mechanism is highly like the theoretical focal mechanism of the fault situated at the location where the Coulomb failure line intersects the Mohr circle, demonstrating that background stress is what caused the earthquake. The substantial fault instability and similarity between the solved and theoretical focal mechanisms make it easier to comprehend the loading effect of tectonic stress on the Luding earthquake fault.

Rupture process and aftershock focal mechanisms of the 2022 M6.8 Luding earthquake in Sichuan

According to the China Earthquake Networks Center,a strong earthquake of M6.8 occurred in Luding County,Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province,China(102.08°E,29.59°N),on September 5,2022,with a focal depth of 16 km.Rapid determination of the source parameters of the earthquake sequence is vital for post-earthquake rescue,disaster assessment,and scientific research.Near-field seismic observations play a key role in the fast and reliable determination of earthquake source parameters.The numerous broadband seismic stations and strong-motion stations recently deployed by the National Earthquake Intensity Rapid Report and Early Warning project have provided valuable real-time near-field observation data.Using these near-field observations and conventional mid-and far-field seismic waveform records,we obtained the focal mechanism solutions of the mainshock and M≥3.0 aftershocks through the waveform fitting method.We were further able to rapidly invert the rupture process of the mainshock.Based on the evaluation of the focal mechanism solution of the mainshock and the regional tectonic setting,we speculate that the Xianshuihe fault formed the seismogenic structure of the M6.8 strong earthquake.The aftershocks formed three spatially separated clusters with distinctly different focal mechanisms,reflecting the segmented nature of the Xianshuihe fault.As more high-frequency information has been applied in this study,the absolute location of the fault rupture is better constrained by the near-field strong-motion data.The rupture process of the mainshock correlates well with the spatial distribution of aftershocks,i.e.,aftershock activities were relatively weak in the maximum slip area,and strong aftershock activities were distributed in the peripheral regions.

Geomorphic and tectonic controls of landslides induced by the 2022 Luding earthquake

On 05 September 2022,an Ms 6.8(Mw 6.6)earthquake occurred in Luding County,Sichuan Province,China,with the epicenter at 29.59°N,102.08°E and a focal depth of approximately 16.0km.Combining field investigations,high-resolution satellite images and multiple datatpes characterizing the seismogenic structure,topography and geology,this study attempts to discuss the influence of geomorphic and tectonic indexes on landslide distribution.The results show that the 2022 Luding earthquake with seismogenic fault at the Moxi fault,was a sinistral strike-slip event that triggered at least 4528landslides over an area of~2000 km2.These landslides span a total area of 28.1 km^(2),and the western section of the seismogenic fault,which serves as the active wall area,is characterized by a higher landslide concentration,especially in the Wandong Basin.The seismogenic fault and lithology influence the regional distribution of landslides,and more landslides occurred closer to the seismogenic fault and in the controlling lithologies of granite and dolomite.Local topography influences the landslide occurrence position on the slope;the eastern section is prone to form landslides in the lower gorge section,and the western section is prone to form landslides in the upper-top section of the gorge.For coseismic landslides in the eastern Baryan Har block,the eastern boundary(Longmenshan fault),where the earthquakes are characterized by thrusts with slight dextral strike-slip movement,could be the primary landslide-prone area;the southern boundary,the Moxi fault and the southern segment of the Xianshuihe fault,with more intensive strikeslip movement,may be the secondary landsideprone area;and the northern boundary is the tertiary landside-prone area.Additionally,the current landslide inventory may be underestimated although this underestimation has limited influence on the results.

Stability of the Hailuogou glacier during the“9.5”Luding Earthquake:a preliminary assessment based on multi-source observations

On 5th September 2022,a magnitude Ms-6.8 earthquake occurred nearby Mt.Gongga,western Sichuan.The stability of the glaciers in east Mt.Gongga close to the epicenter was widely concerned due to the strong shake triggered by the earthquake.Using multi-source observations(including in-situ photographs,remote sensing datasets before and after the event),we carried out a preliminary assessment of the stability and hazard risks of the Hailuogou(HLG)glacier.Triggered by the earthquake,a small block of fractured ice at the lowest part of icefall collapsed.The magnitude of the coseismic ice avalanche was relatively small,which is comparable in size to most ice avalanches over the past seven years,but much less than the previous mapped largest one(03 April 2018,runout~699 m).One most recent large(runout~608 m)ice avalanche occurred between 01 and 04 September,just before the earthquake,likely unloaded large amount of ice mass and made a larger ice avalanche avoided during the earthquake shake.Nevertheless,the momentum of collapsed snow-icerock mass could be safely unloaded over a wide and gentler-slope ice tongue area,limiting its mobility and the risk of a cascading hazard.Glacier-wide surface flow dynamics monitored by Sentinel-1 satellite SAR time series(12 September 2021–19 September 2022)show that HLG glacier velocity was generally consistent before and after the earthquake.The entire HLG glacier exhibited more stable than expected,with almost no abnormal features detected in its upper accumulation part,the lower ice tongue,and its lateral paraglacial slopes.Since the glacier valley has experienced remarkable downwasting and the paraglacial environment has been strongly disturbed and destabilized,we suggested that,to efficiently evaluate glacier-related cascading hazard risks,it is also necessary to systematically combine multi-source observations(e.g.,high-resolution UAV survey,radar/Lidar scan,ground investigation,monitoring and warning systems)to continuously monitor the regional glacier anomalies in the post-earthquake seismic active areas.

Seismicity changes and numerical simulation of coseismic deformation following the 2022 M_(s)6.8 Luding earthquake in Sichuan,China

The Xianshuihe fault is a major tectonic boundary between the Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic and Bayanhar blocks in Southwest China.With an average left-lateral strike-slip movement of 10–15 mm/yr,it is a fast-moving strike-slip continental fault.On September 5,2022,the Ms6.8 Luding earthquake occurred along the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault,reaching a maximum intensity of IX and resulting in a significant number of casualties and severe property damage.This earthquake broke the long-standing seismic quiescence of the Xianshuihe fault,which lasted for more than 40 years,and was followed by a significant number of aftershocks.An outstanding question is how the behavior of the Xianshuihe fault and major earthquakes changed following this mainshock.In this study,we examined the changes in regional seismicity following the Luding earthquake and identified the potential for future strong earthquakes along the Xianshuihe fault.We used a finite element numerical method to simulate the environment of the seismogenic fault and its adjacent areas.In addition,we used the coseismic slip model of the Luding earthquake with the split-node method to calculate how the stress and strain fields in the surrounding area were affected by the2022 mainshock.Coulomb stress changes were resolved in the main faults,and the seismicity of adjacent faults was analyzed in conjunction with the observed seismic data.The results indicate that regional tectonic movement primarily occurred to the southeast along the Moxi segment.The stress field is approximately north-south in tension and east-west in compression.Variation in the stress field in the epicentral region of the Luding earthquake exceeded 1 MPa.The maximum displacement of the coseismic deformation field was concentrated between Moxi town and Tuanjie village,and the Coulomb stress of the fault zone in this region experienced the largest decrease.However,the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relationship at the epicenter and the surrounding area exhibited an abnormal pattern of decrease-decrease-increase,indicating that the regional stress may not be fully released.This earthquake increased the Coulomb stress in other segments of the Xianshuihe,Anninghe,and Daliangshan faults,whereas the Coulomb stress in the Longmenshan and Xiaojinhe fault zones decreased.In addition,it triggered a series of normal-fault,moderate-sized earthquakes in nearby areas.The Dagangshan reservoir,located~20 km from the epicenter of the Luding earthquake,received an increase of~5.3 MPa in the tensile stress along the NWW-SEE direction.The Xiluodu Reservoir,located approximately 225 km from the epicenter,was less affected by this earthquake,and the seismic activity near the reservoir remained relatively unchanged.In this study,post-earthquake seismicity in the vicinity of the Ms6.8 Luding earthquake was analyzed and predicted by numerical simulation,providing a scientific basis for earthquake prediction and disaster reduction.

Rapid estimation of disaster losses for the M6.8 Luding earthquake on September 5,2022

An M6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan Province,China,on September 5,2022.Since towns and villages in the earthquake-stricken area are densely populated,the earthquake caused severe fatalities and economic losses.Rapid estimation of earthquake intensity and disaster losses is significantly important for post-earthquake emergency rescue,scientific anti-seismic deployment,and the reduction of casualties and economic losses.Therefore,we make a preliminary rapid estimation of the earthquake intensity and disaster losses in the aftermath of the Luding earthquake.The seismic intensity represents the distribution of earthquake disasters and the degree of ground damage and can be directly converted from the peak ground velocity(PGV)map.To obtain a reliable PGV distribution map of this earthquake,we combined the finite-fault model constrained by seismic observations,with the complex three-dimensional(3D)geological environment and topographical features to perform strong ground motion simulation.Then,we compared the consistency between the simulated ground motion waveforms and observations,indicating the plausibility and reliability of simulations.In addition,we transformed the PGV simulation results into intensity and obtained a physics-based map of the intensity distribution of the Luding earthquake.The maximum simulated intensity of this earthquake is IX,which is consistent with the maximum intensity determined from the postearthquake field survey.Based on the simulated seismic intensity map of the Luding earthquake and the earthquake disaster loss estimation model,we rapidly estimated the death and economic losses caused by this earthquake.The estimated results show that the death toll caused by this earthquake is probably 50-300,with a mathematic expectation of 89.Thus the government should launch a Level II earthquake emergency response plan.The economic losses are likely to be 10-100 billion RMB,with a mathematical expectation of 23.205 billion RMB.Such seismic intensity simulations and rapid estimation of disaster losses are expected to provide a preliminary scientific reference for governments to carry out the targeted deployment of emergency rescue and post-disaster reconstruction.