Hydrological models are very useful tools for evaluating water resources, and the hydroclimatic hazards associated with the water cycle. However, their calibration and validation require the use of performance criteri...Hydrological models are very useful tools for evaluating water resources, and the hydroclimatic hazards associated with the water cycle. However, their calibration and validation require the use of performance criteria which choice is not straightforward. This paper aims to evaluate the influence of the performance criteria on water balance components and water extremes using two global rainfall-runoff models (HBV and GR4J) over the Ouémé watershed at the Bonou and Savè outlets. Three (3) Efficacy criteria (Nash, coefficient of determination, and KGE) were considered for calibration and validation. The results show that the Nash criterion provides a good assessment of the simulation of the different parts of the hydrograph. KGE is better for simulating peak flows and water balance elements than other efficiency criteria. This study could serve as a basis for the choice of performance criteria in hydrological modelling.展开更多
Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate c...Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.展开更多
文摘Hydrological models are very useful tools for evaluating water resources, and the hydroclimatic hazards associated with the water cycle. However, their calibration and validation require the use of performance criteria which choice is not straightforward. This paper aims to evaluate the influence of the performance criteria on water balance components and water extremes using two global rainfall-runoff models (HBV and GR4J) over the Ouémé watershed at the Bonou and Savè outlets. Three (3) Efficacy criteria (Nash, coefficient of determination, and KGE) were considered for calibration and validation. The results show that the Nash criterion provides a good assessment of the simulation of the different parts of the hydrograph. KGE is better for simulating peak flows and water balance elements than other efficiency criteria. This study could serve as a basis for the choice of performance criteria in hydrological modelling.
文摘Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.
文摘目的探讨血清免疫球蛋白A(immunoglobulin A,IgA)、免疫球蛋白G(immunoglobulin G,IgG)、免疫球蛋白M(immunoglobulin M,IgM)及胆红素检测在乙型肝炎诊断中的应用效果。方法选取2019年5月—2021年3月赣州市南康区第一人民医院收治的60例乙型肝炎患者作为观察组,选取60名同期健康体检者作为对照组,通过免疫散射比浊法测定2组患者血清中IgA、IgG、IgM及胆红素含量。通过Pearson相关性考察,分析IgA、IgG、IgM与胆红素水平的相关性。绘制受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC),考察IgA、IgG、IgM及胆红素对乙型肝炎的诊断价值。结果观察组患者血清中IgA、IgG、IgM及胆红素水平明显高于对照组(P<0.05);Pearson相关性分析表明,IgA、IgG、IgM与胆红素水平呈正相关(P<0.05);ROC曲线下,IgA、IgG、IgM、胆红素及联合检测的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)面积分别为0.769、0.783、0.738、0.801及0.878,IgA、IgG、IgM及胆红素联合检测方式的灵敏度、特异度均高于单一检测。结论血清IgA、IgG、IgM及胆红素与乙型肝炎的发生发展关系密切,4项指标联合诊断价值较高,对疾病防治具有重要意义。
