Hydrological models are very useful tools for evaluating water resources, and the hydroclimatic hazards associated with the water cycle. However, their calibration and validation require the use of performance criteri...Hydrological models are very useful tools for evaluating water resources, and the hydroclimatic hazards associated with the water cycle. However, their calibration and validation require the use of performance criteria which choice is not straightforward. This paper aims to evaluate the influence of the performance criteria on water balance components and water extremes using two global rainfall-runoff models (HBV and GR4J) over the Ouémé watershed at the Bonou and Savè outlets. Three (3) Efficacy criteria (Nash, coefficient of determination, and KGE) were considered for calibration and validation. The results show that the Nash criterion provides a good assessment of the simulation of the different parts of the hydrograph. KGE is better for simulating peak flows and water balance elements than other efficiency criteria. This study could serve as a basis for the choice of performance criteria in hydrological modelling.展开更多
Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate c...Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.展开更多
Alzheimer s disease,among the most common neurodegenerative disorders,is chara cterized by progressive cognitive impairment.At present,the Alzheimer’s disease main risk remains genetic ris ks,but major environmental ...Alzheimer s disease,among the most common neurodegenerative disorders,is chara cterized by progressive cognitive impairment.At present,the Alzheimer’s disease main risk remains genetic ris ks,but major environmental fa ctors are increasingly shown to impact Alzheimer’s disease development and progression.Microglia,the most important brain immune cells,play a central role in Alzheimer’s disease pathogenesis and are considered environmental and lifestyle"sensors."Factors like environmental pollution and modern lifestyles(e.g.,chronic stress,poor dietary habits,sleep,and circadian rhythm disorde rs)can cause neuroinflammato ry responses that lead to cognitive impairment via microglial functioning and phenotypic regulation.However,the specific mechanisms underlying interactions among these facto rs and microglia in Alzheimer’s disease are unclear.Herein,we:discuss the biological effects of air pollution,chronic stress,gut micro biota,sleep patterns,physical exercise,cigarette smoking,and caffeine consumption on microglia;consider how unhealthy lifestyle factors influence individual susceptibility to Alzheimer’s disease;and present the neuroprotective effects of a healthy lifestyle.Toward intervening and controlling these environmental risk fa ctors at an early Alzheimer’s disease stage,understanding the role of microglia in Alzheimer’s disease development,and to rgeting strategies to to rget microglia,co uld be essential to future Alzheimer’s disease treatments.展开更多
BACKGROUND Oncostatin M(OSM)is a pleiotropic cytokine which is implicated in the path-ogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease(IBD).AIM To evaluate the prognostic role of OSM in IBD patients.METHODS Literature search wa...BACKGROUND Oncostatin M(OSM)is a pleiotropic cytokine which is implicated in the path-ogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease(IBD).AIM To evaluate the prognostic role of OSM in IBD patients.METHODS Literature search was conducted in electronic databases(Google Scholar,Embase,PubMed,Science Direct,Springer,and Wiley).Studies were selected if they reported prognostic information about OSM in IBD patients.Outcome data were synthesized,and meta-analyses were performed to estimate standardized mean differences(SMDs)in OSM levels between treatment responders and non-res-ponders and to seek overall correlations of OSM with other inflammatory bio-markers.RESULTS Sixteen studies(818 Crohn’s disease and 686 ulcerative colitis patients treated with anti-tumor necrosis factor-based therapies)were included.OSM levels were associated with IBD severity.A meta-analysis found significantly higher OSM levels in non-responders than in responders to therapy[SMD 0.80(0.33,1.27);P=0.001],in non-remitters than in remitters[SMD 0.75(95%CI:0.35 to 1.16);P<0.0001]and in patients with no mucosal healing than in those with mucosal heal-ing[SMD 0.63(0.30,0.95);P<0.0001].Area under receiver operator curve values showed considerable variability between studies but in general higher OSM levels were associated with poor prognosis.OSM had significant correlations with Simple Endoscopic Score of Crohn’s disease[r=0.47(95%CI:0.25 to 0.64);P<0.0001],Mayo Endoscopic Score[r=0.35(95%CI:0.28 to 0.41);P<0.0001],fecal calprotectin[r=0.19(95%CI:0.08 to 0.3);P=0.001],C-reactive protein[r=0.25(95%CI:0.11 to 0.39);P<0.0001],and platelet count[r=0.28(95%CI:0.17 to 0.39);P<0.0001].CONCLUSION OSM is a potential candidate for determining the severity of disease and predicting the outcomes of anti-tumor necrosis factor-based therapies in IBD patients.展开更多
Based on 2022 and 2023 hydrometric data and satellite images (Sentinel 2022, SPOT 2010), this study aims to present the Nokoué Lake and its channels’ re-cent hydromorphological characteristics. Integrating flow,...Based on 2022 and 2023 hydrometric data and satellite images (Sentinel 2022, SPOT 2010), this study aims to present the Nokoué Lake and its channels’ re-cent hydromorphological characteristics. Integrating flow, tributary morphology, and topography data determined specific power values along the axes studied. The values obtained range from 2.69 to 12.92 W/m2 for Ouémé River and 2.46 to 10.99 W/m2 for Sô River. The resulting water erosion on banks and bottoms is of linear, areolar, or gully and claw types. Lake bathymetry varies from -0.5 to -2.6 m (low flow period) and -1 to -4 m;in the Ouémé, Sô, and Totchè rivers, it varies from -5 m to -7 m, reaching -10 m at the Cotonou channel entrance (flood period). Bathymetric profiles reveal varied “U”, “V” and “Intermediate” bottom morphologies, influenced by erosion/sedimentation processes and human activities. The flow facies identified are lentic in the northern tributaries and lotic in the Cotonou and Totchè canals. Spatial analysis identified nine (09) thematic classes. In 2022, the surface area of the water body has increased from 274 km2 at low water to 280 km2 at high water, whereas in 2010 (a recent year of exceptional flooding), the surface area was 270 km2 at low water and 277 km2 at high water. Significant changes in land use are observed between 2010 and 2022. The floodplain area decreased slightly, from 421 km2 in 2010 (year of exceptional flooding) to 419 km2 in 2022. The evolution of land use shows a progressive expansion of the urban environment to the detriment of the natural environment. In the medium to long term, this trend could threaten the hydromorphological balance and even the existence of this important lagoon ecosystem.展开更多
The unique structure and complex deformation characteristics of concrete face rockfill dams(CFRDs)create safety monitoring challenges.This study developed an improved random forest(IRF)model for dam health monitoring ...The unique structure and complex deformation characteristics of concrete face rockfill dams(CFRDs)create safety monitoring challenges.This study developed an improved random forest(IRF)model for dam health monitoring modeling by replacing the decision tree in the random forest(RF)model with a novel M5'model tree algorithm.The factors affecting dam deformation were preliminarily selected using the statistical model,and the grey relational degree theory was utilized to reduce the dimensions of model input variables.Finally,a deformation prediction model of CFRDs was established using the IRF model.The ten-fold cross-validation method was used to quantitatively analyze the parameters affecting the IRF algorithm.The performance of the established model was verified using data from three specific measurement points on the Jishixia dam and compared with other dam deformation prediction models.At point ES-10,the performance evaluation indices of the IRF model were superior to those of the M5'model tree and RF models and the classical support vector regression(SVR)and back propagation(BP)neural network models,indicating the satisfactory performance of the IRF model.The IRF model also outperformed the SVR and BP models in settlement prediction at points ES2-8 and ES4-10,demonstrating its strong anti-interference and generalization capabilities.This study has developed a novel method for forecasting and analyzing dam settlements with practical significance.Moreover,the established IRF model can also provide guidance for modeling health monitoring of other structures.展开更多
文摘Hydrological models are very useful tools for evaluating water resources, and the hydroclimatic hazards associated with the water cycle. However, their calibration and validation require the use of performance criteria which choice is not straightforward. This paper aims to evaluate the influence of the performance criteria on water balance components and water extremes using two global rainfall-runoff models (HBV and GR4J) over the Ouémé watershed at the Bonou and Savè outlets. Three (3) Efficacy criteria (Nash, coefficient of determination, and KGE) were considered for calibration and validation. The results show that the Nash criterion provides a good assessment of the simulation of the different parts of the hydrograph. KGE is better for simulating peak flows and water balance elements than other efficiency criteria. This study could serve as a basis for the choice of performance criteria in hydrological modelling.
文摘Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m<sup>2</sup> by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,Nos.82071190 and 82371438(to LC)Innovative Strong School Project of Guangdong Medical University,No.4SG21230G(to LC)Scientific Research Foundation of Guangdong Medical University,No.GDMUM2020017(to CL)。
文摘Alzheimer s disease,among the most common neurodegenerative disorders,is chara cterized by progressive cognitive impairment.At present,the Alzheimer’s disease main risk remains genetic ris ks,but major environmental fa ctors are increasingly shown to impact Alzheimer’s disease development and progression.Microglia,the most important brain immune cells,play a central role in Alzheimer’s disease pathogenesis and are considered environmental and lifestyle"sensors."Factors like environmental pollution and modern lifestyles(e.g.,chronic stress,poor dietary habits,sleep,and circadian rhythm disorde rs)can cause neuroinflammato ry responses that lead to cognitive impairment via microglial functioning and phenotypic regulation.However,the specific mechanisms underlying interactions among these facto rs and microglia in Alzheimer’s disease are unclear.Herein,we:discuss the biological effects of air pollution,chronic stress,gut micro biota,sleep patterns,physical exercise,cigarette smoking,and caffeine consumption on microglia;consider how unhealthy lifestyle factors influence individual susceptibility to Alzheimer’s disease;and present the neuroprotective effects of a healthy lifestyle.Toward intervening and controlling these environmental risk fa ctors at an early Alzheimer’s disease stage,understanding the role of microglia in Alzheimer’s disease development,and to rgeting strategies to to rget microglia,co uld be essential to future Alzheimer’s disease treatments.
文摘BACKGROUND Oncostatin M(OSM)is a pleiotropic cytokine which is implicated in the path-ogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease(IBD).AIM To evaluate the prognostic role of OSM in IBD patients.METHODS Literature search was conducted in electronic databases(Google Scholar,Embase,PubMed,Science Direct,Springer,and Wiley).Studies were selected if they reported prognostic information about OSM in IBD patients.Outcome data were synthesized,and meta-analyses were performed to estimate standardized mean differences(SMDs)in OSM levels between treatment responders and non-res-ponders and to seek overall correlations of OSM with other inflammatory bio-markers.RESULTS Sixteen studies(818 Crohn’s disease and 686 ulcerative colitis patients treated with anti-tumor necrosis factor-based therapies)were included.OSM levels were associated with IBD severity.A meta-analysis found significantly higher OSM levels in non-responders than in responders to therapy[SMD 0.80(0.33,1.27);P=0.001],in non-remitters than in remitters[SMD 0.75(95%CI:0.35 to 1.16);P<0.0001]and in patients with no mucosal healing than in those with mucosal heal-ing[SMD 0.63(0.30,0.95);P<0.0001].Area under receiver operator curve values showed considerable variability between studies but in general higher OSM levels were associated with poor prognosis.OSM had significant correlations with Simple Endoscopic Score of Crohn’s disease[r=0.47(95%CI:0.25 to 0.64);P<0.0001],Mayo Endoscopic Score[r=0.35(95%CI:0.28 to 0.41);P<0.0001],fecal calprotectin[r=0.19(95%CI:0.08 to 0.3);P=0.001],C-reactive protein[r=0.25(95%CI:0.11 to 0.39);P<0.0001],and platelet count[r=0.28(95%CI:0.17 to 0.39);P<0.0001].CONCLUSION OSM is a potential candidate for determining the severity of disease and predicting the outcomes of anti-tumor necrosis factor-based therapies in IBD patients.
文摘Based on 2022 and 2023 hydrometric data and satellite images (Sentinel 2022, SPOT 2010), this study aims to present the Nokoué Lake and its channels’ re-cent hydromorphological characteristics. Integrating flow, tributary morphology, and topography data determined specific power values along the axes studied. The values obtained range from 2.69 to 12.92 W/m2 for Ouémé River and 2.46 to 10.99 W/m2 for Sô River. The resulting water erosion on banks and bottoms is of linear, areolar, or gully and claw types. Lake bathymetry varies from -0.5 to -2.6 m (low flow period) and -1 to -4 m;in the Ouémé, Sô, and Totchè rivers, it varies from -5 m to -7 m, reaching -10 m at the Cotonou channel entrance (flood period). Bathymetric profiles reveal varied “U”, “V” and “Intermediate” bottom morphologies, influenced by erosion/sedimentation processes and human activities. The flow facies identified are lentic in the northern tributaries and lotic in the Cotonou and Totchè canals. Spatial analysis identified nine (09) thematic classes. In 2022, the surface area of the water body has increased from 274 km2 at low water to 280 km2 at high water, whereas in 2010 (a recent year of exceptional flooding), the surface area was 270 km2 at low water and 277 km2 at high water. Significant changes in land use are observed between 2010 and 2022. The floodplain area decreased slightly, from 421 km2 in 2010 (year of exceptional flooding) to 419 km2 in 2022. The evolution of land use shows a progressive expansion of the urban environment to the detriment of the natural environment. In the medium to long term, this trend could threaten the hydromorphological balance and even the existence of this important lagoon ecosystem.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51979224)the China National Funds for Distinguished Young Scientists(Grant No.52125904).
文摘The unique structure and complex deformation characteristics of concrete face rockfill dams(CFRDs)create safety monitoring challenges.This study developed an improved random forest(IRF)model for dam health monitoring modeling by replacing the decision tree in the random forest(RF)model with a novel M5'model tree algorithm.The factors affecting dam deformation were preliminarily selected using the statistical model,and the grey relational degree theory was utilized to reduce the dimensions of model input variables.Finally,a deformation prediction model of CFRDs was established using the IRF model.The ten-fold cross-validation method was used to quantitatively analyze the parameters affecting the IRF algorithm.The performance of the established model was verified using data from three specific measurement points on the Jishixia dam and compared with other dam deformation prediction models.At point ES-10,the performance evaluation indices of the IRF model were superior to those of the M5'model tree and RF models and the classical support vector regression(SVR)and back propagation(BP)neural network models,indicating the satisfactory performance of the IRF model.The IRF model also outperformed the SVR and BP models in settlement prediction at points ES2-8 and ES4-10,demonstrating its strong anti-interference and generalization capabilities.This study has developed a novel method for forecasting and analyzing dam settlements with practical significance.Moreover,the established IRF model can also provide guidance for modeling health monitoring of other structures.