Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions ...Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions of seismogenic layers or blocks within the lithosphere. Seismic precursory model of radon gas emanation in the process of earthquake prediction research aims to find out the distinct anomaly variation necessary to correlate radon gas with processes of preparation and realization of tectonic earthquakes in long-term and short-term forecasts tectonic earthquakes. The study involves a radon gas volume analytic model to find the correlation of radon fluctuations to stress drop under compression and dilatation strain condition. Here, we present a mathematical inference by observing radon gas emanation prior to the occurrence of earthquake that may reduce the uncertainties in models and updating their probability distributions in a Bayesian deterministic model. Using Bayesian melding theorem, we implement an inferential framework to understand the process of preparation of tectonic earthquake and concurrent occurrence of radon discharge during a tectonic earthquake phenomena. Bayesian melding for deterministic simulation models was augmented to make use of prior knowledge on correlations between model inputs. The background porosity is used as a priori information for analyzing the block subjected to inelastic strain. It can be inferred that use of probabilistic framework involving exhalation of radon may provide a scenario of earthquake occurrences on recession of the curve that represents a qualitative pattern of radon activity concentration drop, indicating associated stress change within the causative seismogenic fault. Using evidence analysis, we propose a joint conditional probability framework model simulation to understand how a single fracture may be affected in response to an external load and radon anomaly change that can be used to detect the slip, a predictable nature of the causative fault in the subsurface rock.展开更多
目的比较终末期肝病模型(MELD)、MELD-Na模型、iMELD模型评分系统预测慢性肝功能衰竭患者短期(治疗3个月)预后的价值。方法选取159例乙肝后慢性肝衰竭患者,以治疗3个月后患者恢复状态分成存活组(108例)和死亡组(51例)。比较2组治疗前的...目的比较终末期肝病模型(MELD)、MELD-Na模型、iMELD模型评分系统预测慢性肝功能衰竭患者短期(治疗3个月)预后的价值。方法选取159例乙肝后慢性肝衰竭患者,以治疗3个月后患者恢复状态分成存活组(108例)和死亡组(51例)。比较2组治疗前的总胆红素(TBIL)、肌酐(Cr)、凝血酶原时间(PT)、PT的国际标准化比率(INR)、血清钠(Na+)、MELD、MELD-Na和iMELD评分值。计算受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下的面积来进一步评价MELD模型、MELD-Na评分及iMELD评分对乙肝后慢性肝衰竭人工肝治疗3个月后预后的预测价值。结果死亡组较存活组的TBIL(μmol/L:330.9±181.9 vs 245.5±127.7)、Cr(μmol/L:84.9±63.8 vs 81.2±49.3)、INR(2.50±1.01 vs 2.09±0.57)、MELD(26.2±6.5 vs 22.0±5.8)、MELD-Na(35.9±31.5 vs 25.3±8.7)及iMELD评分(49.5±17.4 vs 42.4±10.9)增高,血清Na+水平(mmol/L:131.9±24.1 vs 133.8±11.0)降低(P<0.01)。患者病死率随着MELD、MELD-Na和iMELD评分升高而增加。MELD、MELD-Na及iMELD评分预测乙肝后慢性肝衰竭患者近期死亡危险性的最佳临界值分别为25.8、31.0和53.5。3种评分的曲线下面积(AUC)差异均无统计学意义。结论 MELD、MELD-Na和iMELD评分均能较好地预测肝衰竭患者经过人工肝联合内科综合治疗后的短期临床预后。展开更多
文摘Mathematical models in seismo-geochemical monitoring offer powerful tools for the study and exploration of complex dynamics associated with discharge of radon as the indicator of change of intense-deformed conditions of seismogenic layers or blocks within the lithosphere. Seismic precursory model of radon gas emanation in the process of earthquake prediction research aims to find out the distinct anomaly variation necessary to correlate radon gas with processes of preparation and realization of tectonic earthquakes in long-term and short-term forecasts tectonic earthquakes. The study involves a radon gas volume analytic model to find the correlation of radon fluctuations to stress drop under compression and dilatation strain condition. Here, we present a mathematical inference by observing radon gas emanation prior to the occurrence of earthquake that may reduce the uncertainties in models and updating their probability distributions in a Bayesian deterministic model. Using Bayesian melding theorem, we implement an inferential framework to understand the process of preparation of tectonic earthquake and concurrent occurrence of radon discharge during a tectonic earthquake phenomena. Bayesian melding for deterministic simulation models was augmented to make use of prior knowledge on correlations between model inputs. The background porosity is used as a priori information for analyzing the block subjected to inelastic strain. It can be inferred that use of probabilistic framework involving exhalation of radon may provide a scenario of earthquake occurrences on recession of the curve that represents a qualitative pattern of radon activity concentration drop, indicating associated stress change within the causative seismogenic fault. Using evidence analysis, we propose a joint conditional probability framework model simulation to understand how a single fracture may be affected in response to an external load and radon anomaly change that can be used to detect the slip, a predictable nature of the causative fault in the subsurface rock.
文摘目的比较终末期肝病模型(MELD)、MELD-Na模型、iMELD模型评分系统预测慢性肝功能衰竭患者短期(治疗3个月)预后的价值。方法选取159例乙肝后慢性肝衰竭患者,以治疗3个月后患者恢复状态分成存活组(108例)和死亡组(51例)。比较2组治疗前的总胆红素(TBIL)、肌酐(Cr)、凝血酶原时间(PT)、PT的国际标准化比率(INR)、血清钠(Na+)、MELD、MELD-Na和iMELD评分值。计算受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下的面积来进一步评价MELD模型、MELD-Na评分及iMELD评分对乙肝后慢性肝衰竭人工肝治疗3个月后预后的预测价值。结果死亡组较存活组的TBIL(μmol/L:330.9±181.9 vs 245.5±127.7)、Cr(μmol/L:84.9±63.8 vs 81.2±49.3)、INR(2.50±1.01 vs 2.09±0.57)、MELD(26.2±6.5 vs 22.0±5.8)、MELD-Na(35.9±31.5 vs 25.3±8.7)及iMELD评分(49.5±17.4 vs 42.4±10.9)增高,血清Na+水平(mmol/L:131.9±24.1 vs 133.8±11.0)降低(P<0.01)。患者病死率随着MELD、MELD-Na和iMELD评分升高而增加。MELD、MELD-Na及iMELD评分预测乙肝后慢性肝衰竭患者近期死亡危险性的最佳临界值分别为25.8、31.0和53.5。3种评分的曲线下面积(AUC)差异均无统计学意义。结论 MELD、MELD-Na和iMELD评分均能较好地预测肝衰竭患者经过人工肝联合内科综合治疗后的短期临床预后。
