In this article, we develop and analyze a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study the resurgence of dengue. We also explore the large population asymptotic behavior of probabilistic model of dengue using th...In this article, we develop and analyze a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study the resurgence of dengue. We also explore the large population asymptotic behavior of probabilistic model of dengue using the law of large numbers (LLN). Initially, we calculate and estimate the probabilities of dengue extinction and major outbreak occurrence using multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes. Subsequently, we apply the LLN to examine the convergence of the stochastic model towards the deterministic model. Finally, theoretical numerical simulations are conducted exploration to validate our findings. Under identical conditions, our numerical results demonstrate that dengue could vanish in the stochastic model while persisting in the deterministic model. The highlighting of the law of large numbers through numerical simulations indicates from what population size a deterministic model should be considered preferable.展开更多
Under a very general condition （TNC condition） we show that the spectral radius of the kernel of a general branching process is a threshold parameter and hence plays a role as the basic reproduction number in usual ...Under a very general condition （TNC condition） we show that the spectral radius of the kernel of a general branching process is a threshold parameter and hence plays a role as the basic reproduction number in usual CMJ processes. We discuss also some properties of the extinction probability and the generating operator of general branching processes. As an application in epidemics, in the final section we suggest a generalization of SIR model which can describe infectious diseases transmission in an inhomogeneous population.展开更多
Strong law of large numbers is a fundamental theory in probability and statistics. When the measure tool is nonadditive, this law is very different from additive case. In 2010 Chen investigated the strong law of large...Strong law of large numbers is a fundamental theory in probability and statistics. When the measure tool is nonadditive, this law is very different from additive case. In 2010 Chen investigated the strong law of large numbers under upper probabilityVby assumingVis continuous. This assumption is very strong. Upper probabilities may not be continuous. In this paper we prove the strong law of large numbers for an upper probability without the continuity assumption whereby random variables are quasi-continuous and the upper probability is generated by a weakly compact family of probabilities on a complete and separable metric sample space.展开更多
文摘In this article, we develop and analyze a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study the resurgence of dengue. We also explore the large population asymptotic behavior of probabilistic model of dengue using the law of large numbers (LLN). Initially, we calculate and estimate the probabilities of dengue extinction and major outbreak occurrence using multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes. Subsequently, we apply the LLN to examine the convergence of the stochastic model towards the deterministic model. Finally, theoretical numerical simulations are conducted exploration to validate our findings. Under identical conditions, our numerical results demonstrate that dengue could vanish in the stochastic model while persisting in the deterministic model. The highlighting of the law of large numbers through numerical simulations indicates from what population size a deterministic model should be considered preferable.
文摘Under a very general condition （TNC condition） we show that the spectral radius of the kernel of a general branching process is a threshold parameter and hence plays a role as the basic reproduction number in usual CMJ processes. We discuss also some properties of the extinction probability and the generating operator of general branching processes. As an application in epidemics, in the final section we suggest a generalization of SIR model which can describe infectious diseases transmission in an inhomogeneous population.
文摘Strong law of large numbers is a fundamental theory in probability and statistics. When the measure tool is nonadditive, this law is very different from additive case. In 2010 Chen investigated the strong law of large numbers under upper probabilityVby assumingVis continuous. This assumption is very strong. Upper probabilities may not be continuous. In this paper we prove the strong law of large numbers for an upper probability without the continuity assumption whereby random variables are quasi-continuous and the upper probability is generated by a weakly compact family of probabilities on a complete and separable metric sample space.
