China＇s Energy Strategy Adjustment under Energy Conservation and Carbon Emission Constraints

The periodic character of economic development and energy demand, the basic national policy of saving energy and reducing emissions, and the constraints of curbing global warming and reducing greenhouse gas emissions all necessitate corresponding adjustments to China＇s energy strategy, and especially its energy structure strategy. The previous energy strategy focused primarily on energy reserves and production, i.e., focused on energy supply in order to meet energy demand. In response to global climate change, the readjustment of China＇s energy strategy has become imperative： on the one hand, the government needs to engage in serious management of both energy supply and energy demand to meet China＇s energy demand; on the other, it needs to reduce CO： emissions and make this a constraint on meeting energy demand. In our study, through establishing an optimal model, we get the optimal energy structure allowing for energy conservation and emission constraints; then we proceed, by means of a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model, to estimate the impact of rising energy costs as a result of changes in energy structure on the macro-economy. Our research results show that the government＇s plan for renewable energy has a positive impact on reducing CO2 emissions. However, rising energy costs as a result of changes in the energy structure under carbon emission constraints negatively affects macro-economic performance. As many important Chinese industries depend heavily on coal and thermoelectricity, the room for CO2 emission reductions is limited at the present stage. Instead, the government should pay attention to realizing CO2 emission reductions in other fields of economic life.

The Social Welfare Housing Project and Its Effects in China

It was planned to build 36 million units of social welfare housing during the twelve-five2011-2015 in China.This paper introduces the estimation of owner occupied dwelling sector and develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for China's real estate and macro-economy,to simulate the policy effects.The simulation results show that this policy can meet the increased requirements of housing demand due to fast urbanization and improvement of living conditions,therefore it will effectively cool down the price boom of housing market.Meanwhile,although the investment on social welfare housing will reduce the investment on other sectors,it will still stimulate GDP growth.

The Dynamic Impact of Structural Oil Price Shocks on the Macroeconomy

In this paper,we apply the structural vector autoregression(SVAR)model to decompose the international oil price shock into oil supply shocks,aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks,and then use the DCC-GARCH model to analyse the dynamic correlations between these three kinds of oil price shocks and the macroeconomic variables of several oil importing and exporting countries.To quantify the intensity of the effect of oil shocks on these variables,we propose a measure,conditional expectation(Co E),to capture the percent change of the economic variable under oil price shocks relative to the median state.The time-varying copula model is employed to estimate the proposed measure through time.The empirical results show that,for instance,the impacts of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables are different in different periods,showing the time-varying characteristics.Additionally,the impacts of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables show great differences and some similarities among different countries.Finally,we give some policy suggestions for these countries,in particular for China’s special results.