Since 2008,the economic volume of the United States has gradually decreased from 30% of world GDP to 20%-25%,and China has risen from 7% to 15%.However,face at a fast-growing economy,China's stock market has been ...Since 2008,the economic volume of the United States has gradually decreased from 30% of world GDP to 20%-25%,and China has risen from 7% to 15%.However,face at a fast-growing economy,China's stock market has been sluggish,contrast strongly to the US's thriving stock market.This paper studies the correlation between stock market and macroeconomy,based on the perspective of stock market and macroeconomy between China and the United States.This article takes China and the United States from 1999 to early 2017 as the time frame.Choosing the Shanghai Stock Exchange securities market,the S&P 500 index and the macroeconomy indicators and policies of China and the United States as research objects,using a comparative method to study the interactive relationship between the two major economies.In addition,this paper analyzes the parts of macroeconomy and microlisted companies in economic and financial theory,and innovatively applies the four different aspects of macroeconomy of total seven indicators to more fully represent the macroeconomy.This paper establishes the VAR model,impulsive response,and variance decomposition to explore the interaction between trends of the stock market and macroeconomic trends.The research results show that the stock market trend is positively related to the macroeconomic trend.China's stock market is greatly affected by capital,and the reason why the US stock market can develop better under the condition that the macroeconomic development is not as good as China's,because of the unique status of the US dollar.Finally,this paper combines descriptive analysis and empirical analysis results to propose policy recommendations for China's stock market and macroeconomic development.展开更多
In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external ...In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external pressure it faces,and the supporting policies.Due to the economic recovery and the base effect,China’s real GDP growth rate is projected to reach above 8.0%in 2021,and the quarterly growth rate will drop from 18.3%in Q1 to 5.0%in Q4,showing a declining trend.Based on qualitative assessments and statistical forecasts,this report puts forward some policy suggestions.展开更多
The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, th...The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World WarII. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China wasthe first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, andto resume work and production. China’s economic recovery andreconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for theglobal economy. The content of this report mainly includes thefollowing two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend andrecovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of theepidemic;the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- tolong-term development. We focus on four issues: the progressand nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage;major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery inthe next stage;how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects;and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges,to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. Inview of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect ofChina’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forwardpolicy recommendations accordingly.展开更多
This year,China’s macroeconomy will face several particular questions:What will China do to restructure its economy and transform its growth model? Will the ongoing recovery be as bumpy as last year? Will soaring hou...This year,China’s macroeconomy will face several particular questions:What will China do to restructure its economy and transform its growth model? Will the ongoing recovery be as bumpy as last year? Will soaring housing prices be successfully checked? Will the inflation rate become lower in the second half than the first as expected?展开更多
To many, the indices behind the macroeconomy are figures that are seen but not always fully understood. Zhong Wei, professor at the Finance Studies Research Center, Beijing Normal University, speaks to Talents magazin...To many, the indices behind the macroeconomy are figures that are seen but not always fully understood. Zhong Wei, professor at the Finance Studies Research Center, Beijing Normal University, speaks to Talents magazine, a Beijing-based publication, and explains what lies behind these figures and what they really mean. Excerpts follow:展开更多
文摘Since 2008,the economic volume of the United States has gradually decreased from 30% of world GDP to 20%-25%,and China has risen from 7% to 15%.However,face at a fast-growing economy,China's stock market has been sluggish,contrast strongly to the US's thriving stock market.This paper studies the correlation between stock market and macroeconomy,based on the perspective of stock market and macroeconomy between China and the United States.This article takes China and the United States from 1999 to early 2017 as the time frame.Choosing the Shanghai Stock Exchange securities market,the S&P 500 index and the macroeconomy indicators and policies of China and the United States as research objects,using a comparative method to study the interactive relationship between the two major economies.In addition,this paper analyzes the parts of macroeconomy and microlisted companies in economic and financial theory,and innovatively applies the four different aspects of macroeconomy of total seven indicators to more fully represent the macroeconomy.This paper establishes the VAR model,impulsive response,and variance decomposition to explore the interaction between trends of the stock market and macroeconomic trends.The research results show that the stock market trend is positively related to the macroeconomic trend.China's stock market is greatly affected by capital,and the reason why the US stock market can develop better under the condition that the macroeconomic development is not as good as China's,because of the unique status of the US dollar.Finally,this paper combines descriptive analysis and empirical analysis results to propose policy recommendations for China's stock market and macroeconomic development.
基金Beijing Research Centre of the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era[Grant No.19LLLJA001].
文摘In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external pressure it faces,and the supporting policies.Due to the economic recovery and the base effect,China’s real GDP growth rate is projected to reach above 8.0%in 2021,and the quarterly growth rate will drop from 18.3%in Q1 to 5.0%in Q4,showing a declining trend.Based on qualitative assessments and statistical forecasts,this report puts forward some policy suggestions.
基金This research is supported by Beijing Research Centre of the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era[Grant No.19LLLJA001].
文摘The year 2020 is bound to be a very special year in the history ofChina’s and the world’s economy. The sudden onslaught ofCOVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on China’s macroeconomy andits market participants. Also, the global economic and trade system has tipped into the most severe downturn since World WarII. The macro stimulus policy packages launched by various countries are of an epic scale, in a way rarely seen before. China wasthe first to be hit by the epidemic, to contain the epidemic, andto resume work and production. China’s economic recovery andreconstruction are of landmark and leading significance for theglobal economy. The content of this report mainly includes thefollowing two aspects: one is to forecast the basic trend andrecovery potential of China’s economy under the impact of theepidemic;the other is to provide applicable policy recommendations for post-epidemic economic rehabilitation and its mid- tolong-term development. We focus on four issues: the progressand nature of China’s economic recovery at the current stage;major challenges and risks facing China’s economic recovery inthe next stage;how to design policies of a sizable scale and policy mechanisms to achieve desired effects;and whether the existing policy is sufficient to cope with various risks and challenges,to enhance resilience and re-consolidate economic foundations. Inview of this, the report presents the forecast and prospect ofChina’s core macroeconomic indicators in 2020 and puts forwardpolicy recommendations accordingly.
文摘This year,China’s macroeconomy will face several particular questions:What will China do to restructure its economy and transform its growth model? Will the ongoing recovery be as bumpy as last year? Will soaring housing prices be successfully checked? Will the inflation rate become lower in the second half than the first as expected?
文摘To many, the indices behind the macroeconomy are figures that are seen but not always fully understood. Zhong Wei, professor at the Finance Studies Research Center, Beijing Normal University, speaks to Talents magazine, a Beijing-based publication, and explains what lies behind these figures and what they really mean. Excerpts follow:
