Inventory Management and Demand Forecasting Improvement of a Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Networks

Forecasting is predicting or estimating a future event or trend.Supply chains have been constantly growing in most countries ever since the industrial revolution of the 18th century.As the competitiveness between supply chains intensifies day by day,companies are shifting their focus to predictive analytics techniques to minimize costs and boost productivity and profits.Excessive inventory(overstock)and stock outs are very significant issues for suppliers.Excessive inventory levels can lead to loss of revenue because the company's capital is tied up in excess inventory.Excess inventory can also lead to increased storage,insurance costs and labor as well as lower and degraded quality based on the nature of the product.Shortages or out of stock can lead to lost sales and a decline in customer contentment and loyalty to the store.If clients are unable to find the right products on the shelves,they may switch to another vendor or purchase alternative items.Demand forecasting is valuable for planning,scheduling and improving the coordination of all supply chain activities.This paper discusses the use of neural networks for seasonal time series forecasting.Our objective is to evaluate the contribution of the correct choice of the transfer function by proposing a new form of the transfer function to improve the quality of the forecast.

Influence of Farmer Capacity Building in Institutional Linkages on Performance of Smallholder Irrigation Projects in Migori County, Kenya

The smallholder irrigation sector in Kenya is considered inadequately developed. The study views unawareness of critical success factors in the smallholder irrigation sector as contributing to poor performance of smallholder irrigation projects. Consequently, the study investigated influence of farmer capacity building in institutional linkages on performance of smallholder irrigation projects in Migori County, Kenya. The study embraced a pragmatic view of philosophy, and used cross sectional and correlation research design. The target population was 2815, and comprised farmers drawn from fifteen smallholder irrigation projects that receive water from River Kuja through Lower Kuja Project. The sample size was 341. The study used systematic random sampling procedure to draw the sample, and collected data using questionnaire. Data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The study established that farmer capacity building in institutional linkages has a significant influence on performance of smallholder irrigation projects (r = 0.803, R2 = 0.645, F (5, 331) = 120.254 and p < 0.000 < 0.05). Thus, the study recommends that Migori County Government come up with policies that link smallholder irrigation projects in Lower Kuja Project to institutions that provide land ploughing services, certified seeds and fertilisers, control of crop pests and diseases, transportation of farm produce and marketing of farm produce.

Designing Textile Architectures for High Energy-Efficiency Human Body Sweat-and Cooling-Management

Thermal management of textiles requires local microclimate control over heat and wet dissipation to create a comfortable thermal-wet environment at the interface of the human body and clothing.Herein,we design a fabric capable of both sweat-and cooling-management using a knitted fabric featuring a bilayer structure consisting of hydrophobic polyethylene terephthalate and hydrophilic cellulose fibers to simultaneously achieve high infrared(IR)transmittance and good thermal-wet comfort.The IR transmission of this cooling textile increased by~twofold in the dry state and~eightfold in the wet state compared to conventional cotton fabric.When the porosity changes from 10 to 47%with the comparison of conventional cotton fabric and our cooling textile,the heat flux is increased from 74.4 to 152.3 W/cm^(2).The cooling effect of the cooling fabric is 105%greater than that of commercial cotton fabric,which displays a better thermal management capacity for personal cooling.This bilayer design controls fast moisture transfer from inside out and provides thermal management,demonstrating high impact not only for garments,but also for other systems requiring heat regulation,such as buildings,which could mitigate energy demand and ultimately contribute to the relief of global energy and climate issues.