Investigation into Recent Temperature and Rainfall Trends in Mali Using Mann-Kendall Trend Test: Case Study of Bamako

Rainfall and temperature variability analysis is important for researchers and policy formulators in making critical decisions on water availability and use in communities. The Western Sahel, which comprises Mali is considered as one of the vulnerable regions to climate change, and also encountered the challenges of climatic shocks such as flood and drought. This research therefore sought to investigate climate change effects on hydrological events and trends in Sahelian rainfall intensity using Bamako (Mali) as a case study from 1991 to 2020, as limited data availability did not allow an extended period of study. Monthly observed data provided by MALI-METEO was used to validate daily rainfalls data from African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) satellite-based rainfall product on monthly basis. The validated model performance used Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBAIS) and gave results of 0.904 and 1.0506 respectively. Trends in annual maximum temperatures and rainfalls were analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test. The result indicated that the trend in annual maximum rainfalls was decreasing, while annual total rainfall was increasing but not significant at 5% significance level. The rate of increase in annual total rainfalls was 0.475 mm/year according to the observed annual rainfall series and decreased to 0.68 mm/year in annual maximum. The analysis further found that annual maximum temperatures were increasing at the rate of 0.03°C/year at 5% significance level. To provide more accurate climate predictions, it is recommended that further studies on rainfall and temperature with data sets spanning 60 - 90 years be carried out.

基于Mann-Kendall方法的闽江流域降水趋势分析

基于闽江流域1965年~2020年逐日降水资料,利用Mann-Kendall方法进行趋势分析。结果表明:①闽江流域1965年~2020年平均降水量约为1653 mm,有明显的时间规律和区域分布特点。汛期降水量占全年降水量的70%左右,降水在空间上呈现由上游至下游,从西北至东南减少的趋势;②闽江流域全年降水量呈上升趋势,但趋势不显著。汛期及非汛期期间内,多数站点的降水量呈现递增变化,少数站点表现为弱减少;③闽江流域汛期有雨日的日平均雨强有增加趋势,提高了洪水风险,增加了防洪难度。

伊犁河谷旅游气候变化特征分析——基于Mann-Kendall检验

旅游气候对旅游业发展的影响显著,分析旅游气候规律对于科学合理制定旅游业发展对策具有重要意义。基于Mann-Kendall检验伊犁河谷旅游气候变化规律,发现近59年来伊犁河谷年平均气温总趋势呈现波动升高态势,年降水量略呈波动增长趋势,年平均风速呈波动减小趋势,平均相对湿度变化幅度较小;气温、降水呈“V”型变化趋势;各县市年平均气温均表现为波动增长趋势,但其年平均气温差异较大,且风寒指数、着衣指数差异较大,对旅游具有一定区域性影响。

浅谈Mann-Kendall法分析蚌埠市降水量变化趋势

研究降水的趋势演变规律一直以来都是水文、气象领域的热点,其研究结果对于地区防洪减灾具有非常重要的意义,可以为降水和水资源长期预测提供依据,也为水资源合理开发与利用提供了参考。以安徽省蚌埠水文局辖区内23个水文基本雨量站1950—2022年各月、年降水量资料序列为基础,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法,分析了蚌埠市近73年春、夏、秋、冬四季及年降水量序列的趋势。分析结果为淮河流域蚌埠-洪泽湖区间降水预测及水资源合理调配等提供了最新的理论依据。

基于Mann-Kendall和Wavelet分析的唐山市近60年来降水量时空变化研究

降水量时空变化研究,对了解和预测气候变化趋势、合理规划水资源,以及应对极端天气事件具有重要意义。基于唐山市12个标准气象站点的1961-2020年观测资料,采用Mann-Kendall和Wavelet方法相结合的方式,对唐山市降水量时变性进行分析。结果表明,近60年来研究区降水量变化斜率为-1.59mm/a,经Mann-Kendall检测的趋势值Sen’slo值为-1.23mm/a;年际降水量于2014年发生突变,但并不显著;利用Wavelet分析发现,区域降水量存在1~8、7~10、14~16年的变化周期。

基于Sen+Mann-Kendall陕西省植被覆盖度时空变化规律研究

研究长时段、多尺度植被覆盖度时空格局变化及其影响因素对于监测陕西省环境变化,保障生态环境高质量发展具有重要意义。基于MOD17A3H数据、采用Sen趋势分析以及Mann-Kendall显著性检验,对陕西省2000—2019年植被覆盖度时空格局变化进行研究。结果表明:时间上,2010—2019年陕西省植被覆盖度呈波动增长趋势,植被生长环境不断改善;空间上,自北向南,植被覆盖度整体呈低-高-低-高分布,植被覆盖度年际变化趋势呈增-减-增-减分布,两者空间上具有一定互补性;Sen+Mann-Kendall方法对于异常值不敏感,对于数据分布无要求,可以广泛应用到植被覆盖度变化趋势分析中。

基于Mann-Kendall趋势检验的城市能源碳达峰评估方法

能源是城市碳排放的重要组成,评估城市能源碳达峰是践行国家“双碳”战略的必要手段.为此,针对城市能源的碳排放水平,提出了一种基于Mann-Kendall趋势检验的能源碳达峰评估方法.通过构建涵盖能源碳排放量、清洁能源发电量、交通电能替代量等要素的碳监测体系,结合历史数据计算城市的能源碳排放总量.鉴于能源碳排放具有季节性和随机性,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法,建立城市能源碳达峰判断模型,衡量不同时期区域碳排放水平.以上海某行政区为例,从年度、季度视角,判断该区域的能源碳达峰状态.计算结果表明,基于年度数据,该地区在2020年已实现能源碳达峰;基于季度数据,夏季与秋季已实现能源碳达峰,春季和冬季仍处于平台期.该方法可应用于评估城市级的碳达峰状态,为检验各省市的碳达峰进程提供参考.

基于Mann-Kendall法的祖厉河流域水沙特征及趋势分析

为了探究半干旱黄土区水沙特征及变化趋势,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,对祖厉河流域2001—2016年的降水量、径流量与输沙量进行了分析研究。结果表明:研究期内年降水量呈不明显增加趋势,年变化幅度为1.83 mm/a,汛期降水量呈减少趋势,年变化幅度为-2.01 mm/a;年径流量与汛期径流量变化曲线基本一致,总体都呈显著波动下降趋势(P<0.05),径流量年变化幅度为-3.85×10^(6) m^(3)/a,汛期径流量年变化幅度为-2.729×10^(6) m^(3)/a,二者突变时间均在2013年左右,突变以后UF k值超过95%的信度线(α=0.05),呈现急剧减少趋势;输沙量和径流量呈现相似的显著减少趋势,年输沙量与汛期输沙量变化曲线基本一致,年输沙量和汛期输沙量年变化幅度均为-1.06×10^(6) t/a,二者突变开始时间均在2011—2012年之间,2014年以后UF k值超过95%的信度线(α=0.05),呈急剧减少趋势。

基于Mann-Kendall和小波功率谱的丹东市近35年降水量变化特征解析

为探究丹东市降水时空变化规律,以1986—2020年站点观测资料和降水栅格数据为基础,运用Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet分析和统计方法,研究了该地降水倾向趋势、变化周期及空间分布。结果显示,丹东近35年来平均降水量以3.79mm/a的速率增加,但趋势不显著。降水变化具有多个短震荡周期,主周期为6a,在2000年发生弱突变。受季风与地形影响,降水量呈现中高周低分布,空间差异为823~1098mm。文章揭示了近35年丹东降水量变化特征,可为区域水资源管理提供参考依据。

基于Mann-Kendall法的西宁市降水量变化规律分析

利用青海省西宁市4个气象站60年的降水资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验方法分析了降水量的年际、年代际变化特征及趋势,研究了该地区多年降水量的时程变化规律并得出该地区降水相关特征量的变化特征。结果表明:西宁地区年降水量整体呈现上升趋势,降水量的季节性差异较大,汛期表现出较为明显的上升趋势;年降水日数也呈现上升趋势,但上升趋势不显著;西宁市降水量在2005年发生突变。分析结果可为西宁市未来降水资源合理利用、洪涝灾害防治等工作提供参考依据。

A method to predict rockburst using temporal trend test and its application

Rockbursts have become a significant hazard in underground mining,underscoring the need for a robust early warning model to ensure safety management.This study presents a novel approach for rockburst prediction,integrating the Mann-Kendall trend test(MKT)and multi-indices fusion to enable real-time and quantitative assessment of rockburst hazards.The methodology employed in this study involves the development of a comprehensive precursory index library for rockbursts.The MKT is then applied to analyze the real-time trend of each index,with adherence to rockburst characterization laws serving as the warning criterion.By employing a confusion matrix,the warning effectiveness of each index is assessed,enabling index preference determination.Ultimately,the integrated rockburst hazard index Q is derived through data fusion.The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a warning effectiveness of 0.563 for Q,surpassing the performance of any individual index.Moreover,the model’s adaptability and scalability are enhanced through periodic updates driven by actual field monitoring data,making it suitable for complex underground working environments.By providing an efficient and accurate basis for decision-making,the proposed model holds great potential for the prevention and control of rockbursts.It offers a valuable tool for enhancing safety measures in underground mining operations.

Aquifer Test求群孔抽水试验水文地质参数

在水文地质条件复杂的地区,往往采用大型的群孔抽水试验充分揭露含水层特征,获取水文地质参数。用Aquifer Test软件求解水文地质参数,则方便实用、简捷高效,可快速输出拟合图形和求参结果。Aquifer Test提供了丰富的求参方案,求参必须结合当地当时的水文地质条件实际情况考虑,选择适合的方案和时空数据求取水文地质参数。

基于Mann-Kendall法的流域降雨与地下水位时空变化特征研究

降水量在空间和时间上的变化会影响水资源的可用性,导致农业、生态和基础设施受损。在区域和局部尺度上,降雨均有增加和减少的趋势。降雨强度增加可能导致山洪暴发,降水减少也会影响水的可用性和水质。如何预测降水量在时空中的变化趋势具有重要意义。采用Mann-Kendall方法对河北某区域降雨量变化趋势及特征进行分析,并分析观测井的降雨量与地下水水位之间的关系,研究成果可知:4个观测台站中,H台站接收的年降雨量最大,最大值达到了5 153 mm,而K-K台站最大降雨量仅次于H站台,为3 598 mm。地下水位变化与降雨变化趋势相同。可为相关工程提供参考。

Failure characterization of fully grouted rock bolts under triaxial testing

Confining stresses serve as a pivotal determinant in shaping the behavior of grouted rock bolts.Nonetheless,prior investigations have oversimplified the three-dimensional stress state,primarily assuming hydrostatic stress conditions.Under these conditions,it is assumed that the intermediate principal stress(σ_(2))equals the minimum principal stress(σ_(3)).This assumption overlooks the potential variations in magnitudes of in situ stress conditions along all three directions near an underground opening where a rock bolt is installed.In this study,a series of push tests was meticulously conducted under triaxial conditions.These tests involved applying non-uniform confining stresses(σ_(2)≠σ_(3))to cubic specimens,aiming to unveil the previously overlooked influence of intermediate principal stresses on the strength properties of rock bolts.The results show that as the confining stresses increase from zero to higher levels,the pre-failure behavior changes from linear to nonlinear forms,resulting in an increase in initial stiffness from 2.08 kN/mm to 32.51 kN/mm.The load-displacement curves further illuminate distinct post-failure behavior at elevated levels of confining stresses,characterized by enhanced stiffness.Notably,the peak load capacity ranged from 27.9 kN to 46.5 kN as confining stresses advanced from σ_(2)=σ_(3)=0 to σ_(2)=20 MPa and σ_(3)=10 MPa.Additionally,the outcomes highlight an influence of confining stress on the lateral deformation of samples.Lower levels of confinement prompt overall dilation in lateral deformation,while higher confinements maintain a state of shrinkage.Furthermore,diverse failure modes have been identified,intricately tied to the arrangement of confining stresses.Lower confinements tend to induce a splitting mode of failure,whereas higher loads bring about a shift towards a pure interfacial shear-off and shear-crushed failure mechanism.

Development of multi-functional anchorage support dynamic-static coupling performance test system and its application

In underground engineering with complex conditions,the bolt(cable)anchorage support system is in an environment where static and dynamic stresses coexist,under the action of geological conditions such as high stresses and strong disturbances and construction conditions such as the application of high prestress.It is essential to study the support components performance under dynamic-static coupling conditions.Based on this,a multi-functional anchorage support dynamic-static coupling performance test system(MAC system)is developed,which can achieve 7 types of testing functions,including single component performance,anchored net performance,anchored rock performance and so on.The bolt and cable mechanical tests are conducted by MAC system under different prestress levels.The results showed that compared to the non-prestress condition,the impact resistance performance of prestressed bolts(cables)is significantly reduced.In the prestress range of 50–160 k N,the maximum reduction rate of impact energy resisted by different types of bolts is 53.9%–61.5%compared to non-prestress condition.In the prestress range of 150–300 k N,the impact energy resisted by high-strength cable is reduced by76.8%–84.6%compared to non-prestress condition.The MAC system achieves dynamic-static coupling performance test,which provide an effective means for the design of anchorage support system.

C-CORE:Clustering by Code Representation to Prioritize Test Cases in Compiler Testing

Edge devices,due to their limited computational and storage resources,often require the use of compilers for program optimization.Therefore,ensuring the security and reliability of these compilers is of paramount importance in the emerging field of edge AI.One widely used testing method for this purpose is fuzz testing,which detects bugs by inputting random test cases into the target program.However,this process consumes significant time and resources.To improve the efficiency of compiler fuzz testing,it is common practice to utilize test case prioritization techniques.Some researchers use machine learning to predict the code coverage of test cases,aiming to maximize the test capability for the target compiler by increasing the overall predicted coverage of the test cases.Nevertheless,these methods can only forecast the code coverage of the compiler at a specific optimization level,potentially missing many optimization-related bugs.In this paper,we introduce C-CORE(short for Clustering by Code Representation),the first framework to prioritize test cases according to their code representations,which are derived directly from the source codes.This approach avoids being limited to specific compiler states and extends to a broader range of compiler bugs.Specifically,we first train a scaled pre-trained programming language model to capture as many common features as possible from the test cases generated by a fuzzer.Using this pre-trained model,we then train two downstream models:one for predicting the likelihood of triggering a bug and another for identifying code representations associated with bugs.Subsequently,we cluster the test cases according to their code representations and select the highest-scoring test case from each cluster as the high-quality test case.This reduction in redundant testing cases leads to time savings.Comprehensive evaluation results reveal that code representations are better at distinguishing test capabilities,and C-CORE significantly enhances testing efficiency.Across four datasets,C-CORE increases the average of the percentage of faults detected(APFD)value by 0.16 to 0.31 and reduces test time by over 50% in 46% of cases.When compared to the best results from approaches using predicted code coverage,C-CORE improves the APFD value by 1.1% to 12.3% and achieves an overall time-saving of 159.1%.

Unbound^(28)O,the heaviest oxygen isotope observed:a cutting-edge probe for testing nuclear models

The beyond-dripline oxygen isotopes^(27,28)O were recently observed at RIKEN,and were found to be unbound decaying into^(24)O by emitting neutrons.The unbound feature of the heaviest oxygen isotope,^(28)O,provides an excellent test for stateof-the-art nuclear models.The atomic nucleus is a self-organized quantum manybody system comprising specific numbers of protons Z and neutrons N.

Urea breath test for Helicobacter pylori infection in adult dyspeptic patients: A meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy

BACKGROUND Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori)infection has been well-established as a significant risk factor for several gastrointestinal disorders.The urea breath test(UBT)has emerged as a leading non-invasive method for detecting H.pylori.Despite numerous studies confirming its substantial accuracy,the reliability of UBT results is often compromised by inherent limitations.These findings underscore the need for a rigorous statistical synthesis to clarify and reconcile the diagnostic accuracy of the UBT for the diagnosis of H.pylori infection.AIM To determine and compare the diagnostic accuracy of 13C-UBT and 14C-UBT for H.pylori infection in adult patients with dyspepsia.METHODS We conducted an independent search of the PubMed/MEDLINE,EMBASE,and Cochrane Central databases until April 2022.Our search included diagnostic accuracy studies that evaluated at least one of the index tests(^(13)C-UBT or ^(14)C-UBT)against a reference standard.We used the QUADAS-2 tool to assess the methodo-logical quality of the studies.We utilized the bivariate random-effects model to calculate sensitivity,specificity,positive and negative test likelihood ratios(LR+and LR-),as well as the diagnostic odds ratio(DOR),and their 95%confidence intervals.We conducted subgroup analyses based on urea dosing,time after urea administration,and assessment technique.To investigate a possible threshold effect,we conducted Spearman correlation analysis,and we generated summary receiver operating characteristic(SROC)curves to assess heterogeneity.Finally,we visually inspected a funnel plot and used Egger’s test to evaluate publication bias.endorsing both as reliable diagnostic tools in clinical practice.CONCLUSION In summary,our study has demonstrated that ^(13)C-UBT has been found to outperform the ^(14)C-UBT,making it the preferred diagnostic approach.Additionally,our results emphasize the significance of carefully considering urea dosage,assessment timing,and measurement techniques for both tests to enhance diagnostic precision.Nevertheless,it is crucial for researchers and clinicians to evaluate the strengths and limitations of our findings before implementing them in practice.

Evaluation of urea breath test as a diagnostic tool for Helicobacter pylori infection in adult dyspeptic patients

In this editorial,we discuss the article in the World Journal of Gastroenterology.The article conducts a meta-analysis of the diagnostic accuracy of the urea breath test(UBT),a non-invasive method for detecting Helicobacter pylori(H.pylori)infection in humans.It is based on radionuclide-labeled urea.Various methods,both invasive and non-invasive,are available for diagnosing H.pylori infection,inclu-ding endoscopy with biopsy,serology for immunoglobulin titers,stool antigen analysis,and UBT.Several guidelines recommend UBTs as the primary choice for diagnosing H.pylori infection and for reexamining after eradication therapy.It is used to be the first choice non-invasive test due to their high accuracy,specificity,rapid results,and simplicity.Moreover,its performance remains unaffected by the distribution of H.pylori in the stomach,allowing a high flow of patients to be tested.Despite its widespread use,the performance characteristics of UBT have been inconsistently described and remain incompletely defined.There are two UBTs available with Food and Drug Administration approval:The 13C and 14C tests.Both tests are affordable and can provide real-time results.Physicians may prefer the 13C test because it is non-radioactive,compared to 14C which uses a radioactive isotope,especially in young children and pregnant women.Although there was heterogeneity among the studies regarding the diagnostic accuracy of both UBTs,13C-UBT consistently outperforms the 14C-UBT.This makes the 13C-UBT the preferred diagnostic approach.Furthermore,the provided findings of the meta-analysis emphasize the significance of precise considerations when choosing urea dosage,assessment timing,and measurement techniques for both the 13C-UBT and 14C-UBT,to enhance diagnostic precision.

Infectious Disease Update in Obstetrics: A Modern Approach to the Patient with a Positive Screening Test for Syphyilis in Pregnancy

Screening for maternal syphilis has been an essential component of routine antenatal screening tests in most countries for many years. This is not only because of the virulence of the spirochete which causes the infection but also because of its vertical transmission rate and the potential severe adverse complications/morbidity that can result from its transmission to the fetus. Although the incidence of maternal syphilis and its fetal sequalae in low-income countries has been considerable for several years, the disease has been almost non-existent in high income countries with wide antenatal screening coverage and effective treatment programmes for Syphilis. The recent alarming increase in the incidence of maternal syphilis in high income countries has spawned a renewed public health interest in the infection, with several countries updating and strengthening public health guidance in an attempt to stem this dramatic trend. This is a short clinical update for the practising obstetrician on how to manage the antenatal patient with a positive syphilis screening test.