Statistical regression models are input-oriented estimation models that account for observation errors. On the other hand, an output-oriented possibility regression model that accounts for system fluctuations is propo...Statistical regression models are input-oriented estimation models that account for observation errors. On the other hand, an output-oriented possibility regression model that accounts for system fluctuations is proposed. Furthermore, the possibility Markov chain is proposed, which has a disidentifiable state (posterior) and a nondiscriminable state (prior). In this paper, we first take up the entity efficiency evaluation problem as a case study of the posterior non-discriminable production possibility region and mention Fuzzy DEA with fuzzy constraints. Next, the case study of the ex-ante non-discriminable event setting is discussed. Finally, we introduce the measure of the fuzzy number and the equality relation and attempt to model the possibility Markov chain mathematically. Furthermore, we show that under ergodic conditions, the direct sum state can be decomposed and reintegrated using fuzzy OR logic. We had already constructed the Possibility Markov process based on the indifferent state of this world. In this paper, we try to extend it to the indifferent event in another world. It should be noted that we can obtain the possibility transfer matrix by full use of possibility theory.展开更多
This paper studies the strong law of large numbers and the Shannom-McMillan theorem for Markov chains field on Cayley tree. The authors first prove the strong law of large number on the frequencies of states and order...This paper studies the strong law of large numbers and the Shannom-McMillan theorem for Markov chains field on Cayley tree. The authors first prove the strong law of large number on the frequencies of states and orderd couples of states for Markov chains field on Cayley tree. Then they prove the Shannon-McMillan theorem with a.e. convergence for Markov chains field on Cayley tree. In the proof, a new technique in the study the strong limit theorem in probability theory is applied.展开更多
Modeling urban land-use dynamics is critical for urban experts’and infrastructure managers’planning.This study attempts to explore the land-use/land-cover(LULC)dynamics of Gondar using satellite images from 1984 to ...Modeling urban land-use dynamics is critical for urban experts’and infrastructure managers’planning.This study attempts to explore the land-use/land-cover(LULC)dynamics of Gondar using satellite images from 1984 to 2020.Markov-Chain and Cellular Automata(MC-CA)models have been recognized as performing well in predicting urban land-use change.However,only a few models work in Ethiopia in general,and no study in Gondar has applied this approach to study urban land-use patterns.Therefore,Gondar land-use/land cover changes of Gondar were predicted using the MC-CA model in IDRISI.The built-up area in Gondar city covered 1413 ha(3%of the total area)in 1984 and increased to 2380 ha(5%)in 1994;21153 ha(45.5%)in 2004;22622 ha(48.7%)in 2014;and 23427 ha(50.5%)in 2020.The area has been predicted to reach 57.5%in the 2050s,showing a faster increase that will cause a very vast loss of farmland.This will increase urban sprawl challenges as well as overall environmental disequilibrium in the preceding decade.Thus,innovative and careful structures and systems in urban planning are required to secure a sustainable urban future and to make our cities livable and competitive in the paradigm of sustainable cities.展开更多
The properties of generalized flip Markov chains on connected regular digraphs are discussed.The 1-Flipper operation on Markov chains for undirected graphs is generalized to that for multi-digraphs.The generalized 1-F...The properties of generalized flip Markov chains on connected regular digraphs are discussed.The 1-Flipper operation on Markov chains for undirected graphs is generalized to that for multi-digraphs.The generalized 1-Flipper operation preserves the regularity and weak connectivity of multi-digraphs.The generalized 1-Flipper operation is proved to be symmetric.Moreover,it is presented that a series of random generalized 1-Flipper operations eventually lead to a uniform probability distribution over all connected d-regular multi-digraphs without loops.展开更多
A nonhomogeneous Markov chain is applied to the study of the air quality classification in Mexico City when the so-called criterion pollutants are used. We consider the indices associated with air quality using two re...A nonhomogeneous Markov chain is applied to the study of the air quality classification in Mexico City when the so-called criterion pollutants are used. We consider the indices associated with air quality using two regulations where different ways of classification are taken into account. Parameters of the model are the initial and transition probabilities of the chain. They are estimated under the Bayesian point of view through samples generated directly from the corresponding posterior distributions. Using the estimated parameters, the probability of having an air quality index in a given hour of the day is obtained.展开更多
This paper explores the current English vocabulary teaching classroom based on an eco-linguistic perspective and the Markov chain,points out the ecological imbalance in the English vocabulary classroom,and proposes me...This paper explores the current English vocabulary teaching classroom based on an eco-linguistic perspective and the Markov chain,points out the ecological imbalance in the English vocabulary classroom,and proposes measures to solve the problem and strategies to build an ecological English vocabulary learning classroom,in order to provide some reference for future English vocabulary curriculum reform and curriculum design.In this paper,a random sample of 20 students from each class was taken from an advanced arts class and an advanced science class.The results show that after a semester of teaching process,the overall English scores of the arts and science classes improved,and since,the arts classes improved more and the teachers’teaching quality was better.展开更多
现有安全稳定控制系统(简称稳控系统)的可靠性评估方法本质上属于静态建模,由于未能体现系统内各装置老化和检修等动态过程,在一定程度上影响了评估结果的准确性。为此,文中提出一种基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MC...现有安全稳定控制系统(简称稳控系统)的可靠性评估方法本质上属于静态建模,由于未能体现系统内各装置老化和检修等动态过程,在一定程度上影响了评估结果的准确性。为此,文中提出一种基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)的稳控系统动态可靠性评估方法。首先针对失效过程,构建四状态非齐次马尔可夫模型来模拟装置老化过程,并给出各状态评判方法;其次针对修复过程,分析不同检修策略对装置状态转移的影响以体现状态检修的差异性;最后考虑稳控装置状态转移过程的时序或条件相关性,对稳控系统可靠性进行动态建模。以实际稳控系统为例,仿真对比不同检修策略下的可靠性,并对模型参数进行灵敏度分析。评估结果表明,该方法可以求解稳控系统的时变可用度,用于指导稳控装置现场合理检修。展开更多
为提高智能网联(connected and automated,CA)卡车、小车及人工驾驶卡车、小车的混合流道路通行能力,提出基于排强度和渗透率的CA车辆单独编队和合作编队策略.分别设计两种策略下混合流车辆跟驰模式,推导出基于改进Markov模型,涵盖CA车...为提高智能网联(connected and automated,CA)卡车、小车及人工驾驶卡车、小车的混合流道路通行能力,提出基于排强度和渗透率的CA车辆单独编队和合作编队策略.分别设计两种策略下混合流车辆跟驰模式,推导出基于改进Markov模型,涵盖CA车辆渗透率和排强度的车辆状态转移概率;分析两种策略下CA车辆队列分布,建立各策略下的混合流道路容量模型,并通过理论证明和仿真实验予以验证.结果表明,与不编队策略相比,两种策略下道路容量分别提高1.23%~49.62%和1.47%~60.34%,合作编队策略与单独编队策略相比能将道路容量再提高11%;当CA车辆渗透率大于50%和排强度大于0时,编队策略对道路容量的提升效果更显著,容量能提高13.27%~60.34%;单独编队策略下CA小车和CA卡车最大队列规模分别为8辆和6辆,合作编队下CA车辆最大队列规模为8辆.展开更多
目的 针对妇幼卫生纵向数据的任意缺失模式,采用多重填补方法进行填补,探求最佳填补结果,以便对数据作进一步分析与研究。方法 运用SAS9.0 ,采用多重填补方法Markov China Monte Carlo(MCMC)模型对缺失数据进行多次填补并综合分析。...目的 针对妇幼卫生纵向数据的任意缺失模式,采用多重填补方法进行填补,探求最佳填补结果,以便对数据作进一步分析与研究。方法 运用SAS9.0 ,采用多重填补方法Markov China Monte Carlo(MCMC)模型对缺失数据进行多次填补并综合分析。结果 填补5次所得结果最优。结论 多重填补方法可以处理有缺失数据资料中的许多普遍问题,可提高统计效率,尤其是MCMC模型在处理复杂的缺失数据上,优势明显。展开更多
文摘Statistical regression models are input-oriented estimation models that account for observation errors. On the other hand, an output-oriented possibility regression model that accounts for system fluctuations is proposed. Furthermore, the possibility Markov chain is proposed, which has a disidentifiable state (posterior) and a nondiscriminable state (prior). In this paper, we first take up the entity efficiency evaluation problem as a case study of the posterior non-discriminable production possibility region and mention Fuzzy DEA with fuzzy constraints. Next, the case study of the ex-ante non-discriminable event setting is discussed. Finally, we introduce the measure of the fuzzy number and the equality relation and attempt to model the possibility Markov chain mathematically. Furthermore, we show that under ergodic conditions, the direct sum state can be decomposed and reintegrated using fuzzy OR logic. We had already constructed the Possibility Markov process based on the indifferent state of this world. In this paper, we try to extend it to the indifferent event in another world. It should be noted that we can obtain the possibility transfer matrix by full use of possibility theory.
文摘This paper studies the strong law of large numbers and the Shannom-McMillan theorem for Markov chains field on Cayley tree. The authors first prove the strong law of large number on the frequencies of states and orderd couples of states for Markov chains field on Cayley tree. Then they prove the Shannon-McMillan theorem with a.e. convergence for Markov chains field on Cayley tree. In the proof, a new technique in the study the strong limit theorem in probability theory is applied.
文摘Modeling urban land-use dynamics is critical for urban experts’and infrastructure managers’planning.This study attempts to explore the land-use/land-cover(LULC)dynamics of Gondar using satellite images from 1984 to 2020.Markov-Chain and Cellular Automata(MC-CA)models have been recognized as performing well in predicting urban land-use change.However,only a few models work in Ethiopia in general,and no study in Gondar has applied this approach to study urban land-use patterns.Therefore,Gondar land-use/land cover changes of Gondar were predicted using the MC-CA model in IDRISI.The built-up area in Gondar city covered 1413 ha(3%of the total area)in 1984 and increased to 2380 ha(5%)in 1994;21153 ha(45.5%)in 2004;22622 ha(48.7%)in 2014;and 23427 ha(50.5%)in 2020.The area has been predicted to reach 57.5%in the 2050s,showing a faster increase that will cause a very vast loss of farmland.This will increase urban sprawl challenges as well as overall environmental disequilibrium in the preceding decade.Thus,innovative and careful structures and systems in urban planning are required to secure a sustainable urban future and to make our cities livable and competitive in the paradigm of sustainable cities.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11671258)。
文摘The properties of generalized flip Markov chains on connected regular digraphs are discussed.The 1-Flipper operation on Markov chains for undirected graphs is generalized to that for multi-digraphs.The generalized 1-Flipper operation preserves the regularity and weak connectivity of multi-digraphs.The generalized 1-Flipper operation is proved to be symmetric.Moreover,it is presented that a series of random generalized 1-Flipper operations eventually lead to a uniform probability distribution over all connected d-regular multi-digraphs without loops.
文摘A nonhomogeneous Markov chain is applied to the study of the air quality classification in Mexico City when the so-called criterion pollutants are used. We consider the indices associated with air quality using two regulations where different ways of classification are taken into account. Parameters of the model are the initial and transition probabilities of the chain. They are estimated under the Bayesian point of view through samples generated directly from the corresponding posterior distributions. Using the estimated parameters, the probability of having an air quality index in a given hour of the day is obtained.
文摘This paper explores the current English vocabulary teaching classroom based on an eco-linguistic perspective and the Markov chain,points out the ecological imbalance in the English vocabulary classroom,and proposes measures to solve the problem and strategies to build an ecological English vocabulary learning classroom,in order to provide some reference for future English vocabulary curriculum reform and curriculum design.In this paper,a random sample of 20 students from each class was taken from an advanced arts class and an advanced science class.The results show that after a semester of teaching process,the overall English scores of the arts and science classes improved,and since,the arts classes improved more and the teachers’teaching quality was better.
文摘现有安全稳定控制系统(简称稳控系统)的可靠性评估方法本质上属于静态建模,由于未能体现系统内各装置老化和检修等动态过程,在一定程度上影响了评估结果的准确性。为此,文中提出一种基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)的稳控系统动态可靠性评估方法。首先针对失效过程,构建四状态非齐次马尔可夫模型来模拟装置老化过程,并给出各状态评判方法;其次针对修复过程,分析不同检修策略对装置状态转移的影响以体现状态检修的差异性;最后考虑稳控装置状态转移过程的时序或条件相关性,对稳控系统可靠性进行动态建模。以实际稳控系统为例,仿真对比不同检修策略下的可靠性,并对模型参数进行灵敏度分析。评估结果表明,该方法可以求解稳控系统的时变可用度,用于指导稳控装置现场合理检修。
文摘为提高智能网联(connected and automated,CA)卡车、小车及人工驾驶卡车、小车的混合流道路通行能力,提出基于排强度和渗透率的CA车辆单独编队和合作编队策略.分别设计两种策略下混合流车辆跟驰模式,推导出基于改进Markov模型,涵盖CA车辆渗透率和排强度的车辆状态转移概率;分析两种策略下CA车辆队列分布,建立各策略下的混合流道路容量模型,并通过理论证明和仿真实验予以验证.结果表明,与不编队策略相比,两种策略下道路容量分别提高1.23%~49.62%和1.47%~60.34%,合作编队策略与单独编队策略相比能将道路容量再提高11%;当CA车辆渗透率大于50%和排强度大于0时,编队策略对道路容量的提升效果更显著,容量能提高13.27%~60.34%;单独编队策略下CA小车和CA卡车最大队列规模分别为8辆和6辆,合作编队下CA车辆最大队列规模为8辆.
文摘目的 针对妇幼卫生纵向数据的任意缺失模式,采用多重填补方法进行填补,探求最佳填补结果,以便对数据作进一步分析与研究。方法 运用SAS9.0 ,采用多重填补方法Markov China Monte Carlo(MCMC)模型对缺失数据进行多次填补并综合分析。结果 填补5次所得结果最优。结论 多重填补方法可以处理有缺失数据资料中的许多普遍问题,可提高统计效率,尤其是MCMC模型在处理复杂的缺失数据上,优势明显。
