Emoti-Shing: Detecting Vishing Attacks by Learning Emotion Dynamics through Hidden Markov Models

This study examines vishing, a form of social engineering scam using voice communication to deceive individuals into revealing sensitive information or losing money. With the rise of smartphone usage, people are more susceptible to vishing attacks. The proposed Emoti-Shing model analyzes potential victims’ emotions using Hidden Markov Models to track vishing scams by examining the emotional content of phone call audio conversations. This approach aims to detect vishing scams using biological features of humans, specifically emotions, which cannot be easily masked or spoofed. Experimental results on 30 generated emotions indicate the potential for increased vishing scam detection through this approach.

Fully Polarimetric Land Cover Classification Based on Hidden Markov Models Trained with Multiple Observations

A land cover classification procedure is presented utilizing the information content of fully polarimetric SAR images. The Cameron coherent target decomposition (CTD) is employed to characterize each pixel, using a set of canonical scattering mechanisms in order to describe the physical properties of the scatterer. The novelty of the proposed classification approach lies on the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) to uniquely characterize each type of land cover. The motivation to this approach is the investigation of the alternation between scattering mechanisms from SAR pixel to pixel. Depending on the observations-scattering mechanisms and exploiting the transitions between the scattering mechanisms we decide upon the HMM-land cover type. The classification process is based on the likelihood of observation sequences been evaluated by each model. The performance of the classification approach is assessed my means of fully polarimetric SLC SAR data from the broader area of Vancouver, Canada and was found satisfactory, reaching a success from 87% to over 99%.

Hidden Markov Models for Automatic Speech Recognition

In this paper the authors look into the problem of Hidden Markov Models （HMM）： the evaluation, the decoding and the learning problem. The authors have explored an approach to increase the effectiveness of HMM in the speech recognition field. Although hidden Markov modeling has significantly improved the performance of current speech-recognition systems, the general problem of completely fluent speaker-independent speech recognition is still far from being solved. For example, there is no system which is capable of reliably recognizing unconstrained conversational speech. Also, there does not exist a good way to infer the language structure from a limited corpus of spoken sentences statistically. Therefore, the authors want to provide an overview of the theory of HMM, discuss the role of statistical methods, and point out a range of theoretical and practical issues that deserve attention and are necessary to understand so as to further advance research in the field of speech recognition.

An Intrusion Detection Method Based on Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models

This paper presents an anomaly detection approach to detect intrusions into computer systems. In this approach, a hierarchical hidden Markov model （HHMM） is used to represent a temporal profile of normal behavior in a computer system. The HHMM of the norm profile is learned from historic data of the system＇s normal behavior. The observed behavior of the system is analyzed to infer the probability that the HHMM of the norm profile supports the observed behavior. A low probability of support indicates an anomalous behavior that may result from intrusive activities. The model was implemented and tested on the UNIX system call sequences collected by the University of New Mexico group. The testing results showed that the model can clearly identify the anomaly activities and has a better performance than hidden Markov model.

Analysis of reactive routing protocols for mobile ad hoc networks in Markov models

Mobile ad hoc networks （MANETs） have become a hot issue in the area of wireless networks for their non-infrastructure and mobile features. In this paper, a MANET is modeled so that the length of each link in the network is considered as a birthdeath process and the space is reused for n times in the flooding process, which is named as an n-spatiai reuse birth-death model （n-SRBDM）. We analyze the performance of the network under the dynamic source routing protocol （DSR） which is a famous reactive routing protocol. Some performance parameters of the route discovery are studied such as the probability distribution and the expectation of the flooding distance, the probability that a route is discovered by a query packet with a hop limit, the probability that a request packet finds a τ-time-valid route or a symmetric-valid route, and the average time needed to discover a valid route. For the route maintenance, some parameters are introduced and studied such as the average frequency of route recovery and the average time of a route to be valid. We compare the two models with spatial reuse and without spatial reuse by evaluating these parameters. It is shown that the spatial reuse model is much more effective in routing.

Hidden Markov Models to Estimate the Lagged Effects of Weather on Stroke and Ischemic Heart Disease

The links between low temperature and the incidence of disease have been studied by many researchers. What remains still unclear is the exact nature of the relation, especially the mechanism by which the change of weather effects on the onset of diseases. The existence of lag period between exposure to temperature and its effect on mortality may reflect the nature of the onset of diseases. Therefore, to assess lagged effects becomes potentially important. The most of studies on lags used the method by Lag-distributed Poisson Regression, and neglected extreme case as random noise to get correlations. In order to assess the lagged effect, we proposed a new approach, i.e., Hidden Markov Model by Self Organized Map (HMM by SOM) apart from well-known regression models. HMM by SOM includes the randomness in its nature and encompasses the extreme cases which were neglected by auto-regression models. The daily data of the number of patients transported by ambulance in Nagoya, Japan, were used. SOM was carried out to classify the meteorological elements into six classes. These classes were used as “states” of HMM. HMM was used to describe a background process which might produce the time series of the incidence of diseases. The background process was considered to change randomly weather states, classified by SOM. We estimated the lagged effects of weather change on the onset of both cerebral infarction and ischemic heart disease. This fact is potentially important in that if one could trace a path in the chain of events leading from temperature change to death, one might be able to prevent it and avert the fatal outcome.

Morpho-Syntactic Tagging of Text in “Baoule” Language Based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM)

The label text is a very important tool for the automatic processing of language. It is used in several applications such as morphological and syntactic text analysis, index-ing, retrieval, finished networks deterministic (in which all combinations of words that are accepted by the grammar are listed) or by statistical grammars (e.g., an n-gram in which the probabilities of sequences of n words in a specific order are given), etc. In this article, we developed a morphosyntactic labeling system language “Baoule” using hidden Markov models. This will allow us to build a tagged reference corpus and rep-resent major grammatical rules faced “Baoule” language in general. To estimate the parameters of this model, we used a training corpus manually labeled using a set of morpho-syntactic labels. We then proceed to an improvement of the system through the re-estimation procedure parameters of this model.

Hidden Markov Models and Self-Organizing Maps Applied to Stroke Incidence

Several studies were devoted to investigate the effects of meteorological factors on the occurrence of stroke. Regression models had been mostly used to assess the correlation between weather and stroke incidence. However, these methods could not describe the process proceeding in the back-ground of stroke incidence. The purpose of this study was to provide a new approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and self-organizing maps (SOM), interpreting the background from the viewpoint of weather variability. Based on meteorological data, SOM was performed to classify weather patterns. Using these classes by SOM as randomly changing “states”, our Hidden Markov Models were constructed with “observation data” that were extracted from the daily data of emergency transport at Nagoya City in Japan. We showed that SOM was an effective method to get weather patterns that would serve as “states” of Hidden Markov Models. Our Hidden Markov Models provided effective models to clarify background process for stroke incidence. The effectiveness of these Hidden Markov Models was estimated by stochastic test for root mean square errors (RMSE). “HMMs with states by SOM” would serve as a description of the background process of stroke incidence and were useful to show the influence of weather on stroke onset. This finding will contribute to an improvement of our understanding for links between weather variability and stroke incidence.

Application of Hidden Markov Models in Stock Forecasting

In this paper,we tested our methodology on the stocks of four representative companies:Apple,Comcast Corporation(CMCST),Google,and Qualcomm.We compared their performance to several stocks using the hidden Markov model(HMM)and forecasts using mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).For simplicity,we considered four main features in these stocks:open,close,high,and low prices.When using the HMM for forecasting,the HMM has the best prediction for the daily low stock price and daily high stock price of Apple and CMCST,respectively.By calculating the MAPE for the four data sets of Google,the close price has the largest prediction error,while the open price has the smallest prediction error.The HMM has the largest prediction error and the smallest prediction error for Qualcomm’s daily low stock price and daily high stock price,respectively.

Modelling Land Use/Land Cover Change of River Rwizi Catchment, South-Western Uganda Using GIS and Markov Chain Model

Analysis of catchment Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is a vital tool in ensuring sustainable catchment management. The study analyzed land use/land cover changes in the Rwizi catchment, south western Uganda from 1989-2019 and projected the trend by 2040. Landsat images, field observations, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were used to collect data. Changes in cropland, forestland, built up area, grazing land, wetland and open water bodies were analyzed in ArcGIS version 10.2.2 and ERDAS IMAGINE 14 software and a Markov chain model. All the LULC classes increased in area except grazing land. Forest land and builtup area between 2009-2019 increased by 370.03% and 229.53% respectively. Projections revealed an increase in forest land and builtup area by 2030 and only built up area by 2040. LULCC in the catchment results from population pressure, reduced soil fertility and high value of agricultural products.

Development of diabetic complications and influencing factors among 32653 type 2 diabetes patients:retrospective cohort study using a multi-state Markov

Background:Patients with type 2 diabetes are at high risk for developing multiple chronic complications.However,there is a lack of studies of the cumulative number of diabetic complications in China.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was performed from 2009 to 2021.Type 2 diabetes patients who were first diagnosed after the age of 35 years between January 1,2009,and December 31,2017,were included.Five states were defined according to the number of chronic complications:no(S0),one(S1),two(S2),three(S3),and four or more complications(S4).A multi-state Markov model was constructed to estimate transition probability,transition intensity,mean sojourn time,and the possible factors for each state.Results:The study included 32653 type 2 diabetes patients(mean age,59.59 years;15929(48.8%)male),and mean follow-up time of 7.75 years.In all,4375 transitions were observed.The 12-year transition probability of from state S0 to S1 was the lowest at 16.4%,while that from S2 to S3 was the highest,at 45.6%.Higher fasting blood glucose,lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol,higher total cholesterol,and an unhealthy diet were associated with higher risk of progression from S0 to S1.Being female,less than 60 years old,weekly physical activity,and vegetarian diet decreased this risk.Being female and less than 60 years old reduced the likelihood of transition from S1 to S2,whereas lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol increased this likelihood.Conclusions:Following the occurrence of two complications in type 2 diabetes patients,the risk for accumulating a third complication within a short time is significantly increased.It is important to take advantage of the stable window period when patients have fewer than two complications,strengthen the monitoring of blood glucose and blood lipids,and encourage patients to maintain good living habits to prevent further deterioration.

Recent Applications of Hidden Markov Models in Computational Biology

This paper examines recent developments and applications of Hidden MarkovModels (HMMs) to various problems in computational biology, including multiple sequence alignment,homology detection, protein sequences classification, and genomic annotation.

Tandem hidden Markov models using deep belief networks for offline handwriting recognition

Unconstrained offiine handwriting recognition is a challenging task in the areas of document analysis and pattern recognition. In recent years, to sufficiently exploit the supervisory information hidden in document images, much effort has been made to integrate multi-layer perceptrons （MLPs） in either a hybrid or a tandem fashion into hidden Markov models （HMMs）. However, due to the weak learnability of MLPs, the learnt features are not necessarily optimal for subsequent recognition tasks. In this paper, we propose a deep architecture-based tandem approach for unconstrained offiine handwriting recognition. In the proposed model, deep belief networks arc adopted to learn the compact representations of sequential data, while HMMs are applied for （sub-）word recognition. We evaluate the proposed model on two publicly available datasets, i.e., RIMES and IFN/ENIT, which are based on Latin and Arabic languages respectively, and one dataset collected by ourselves called Devanagari （all Indian script）. Extensive experiments show the advantage of the proposed model, especially over the MLP-HMMs taudem approaches.

Hidden Markov Models:Inverse Filtering,Belief Estimation and Privacy Protection

A hidden Markov model(HMM)comprises a state with Markovian dynamics that can only be observed via noisy sensors.This paper considers three problems connected to HMMs,namely,inverse filtering,belief estimation from actions,and privacy enforcement in such a context.First,the authors discuss how HMM parameters and sensor measurements can be reconstructed from posterior distributions of an HMM filter.Next,the authors consider a rational decision-maker that forms a private belief(posterior distribution)on the state of the world by filtering private information.The authors show how to estimate such posterior distributions from observed optimal actions taken by the agent.In the setting of adversarial systems,the authors finally show how the decision-maker can protect its private belief by confusing the adversary using slightly sub-optimal actions.Applications range from financial portfolio investments to life science decision systems.

Hidden Markov Models with Factored Gaussian Mixtures Densities

We present a factorial representation of Gaussian mixture models for observation densities in Hidden Markov Models(HMMs), which uses the factorial learning in the HMM framework. We derive the reestimation formulas for estimating the factorized parameters by the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. We conduct several experiments to compare the performance of this model structure with Factorial Hidden Markov Models(FHMMs) and HMMs, some conclusions and promising empirical results are presented.

Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000,respectively,by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model,and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model.The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices.Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development:1) urban development following existing trends;and 2) under a strict farmland control.The simulations suggested that under either mode,urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses.This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015,and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland.The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County,Changping District and Fangshan District.Also,the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing,suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.

Bi-dimension decomposed hidden Markov models for multi-person activity recognition

We present a novel model for recognizing long-term complex activities involving multiple persons. The proposed model, named ‘decomposed hidden Markov model’ (DHMM), combines spatial decomposition and hierarchical abstraction to capture multi-modal, long-term dependent and multi-scale characteristics of activities. Decomposition in space and time offers conceptual advantages of compaction and clarity, and greatly reduces the size of state space as well as the number of parameters. DHMMs are efficient even when the number of persons is variable. We also introduce an efficient approximation algorithm for inference and parameter estimation. Experiments on multi-person activities and multi-modal individual activities demonstrate that DHMMs are more efficient and reliable than familiar models, such as coupled HMMs, hierarchical HMMs, and multi-observation HMMs.

Customer Segment Prediction on Retail Transactional Data Using K-Means and Markov Model

Retailing is a dynamic business domain where commodities and goods are sold in small quantities directly to the customers.It deals with the end user customers of a supply-chain network and therefore has to accommodate the needs and desires of a large group of customers over varied utilities.The volume and volatility of the business makes it one of the prospectivefields for analytical study and data modeling.This is also why customer segmentation drives a key role in multiple retail business decisions such as marketing budgeting,customer targeting,customized offers,value proposition etc.The segmentation could be on various aspects such as demographics,historic behavior or preferences based on the use cases.In this paper,historic retail transactional data is used to segment the custo-mers using K-Means clustering and the results are utilized to arrive at a transition matrix which is used to predict the cluster movements over the time period using Markov Model algorithm.This helps in calculating the futuristic value a segment or a customer brings to the business.Strategic marketing designs and budgeting can be implemented using these results.The study is specifically useful for large scale marketing in domains such as e-commerce,insurance or retailers to segment,profile and measure the customer lifecycle value over a short period of time.

Differential colour-ring loss among Dalmatian Pelican(Pelecanus crispus) colonies and its consequence on survival estimates

The analysis of bird ringing data often comes with some potential sources of error and bias,as ring wear and/or loss could affect mark-recapture analyses and produce erroneous estimates of survival.Furthermore,ring wear and loss rates may differ between and within species based on the habitat they use or the species’ life-history traits and behaviour as well as the type of the ring.In this study we use resighting data from a long-term double marking experiment to directly estimate the rate of colour-ring loss among different Dalmatian Pelican colonies over time,evaluate any possible factors that could contribute to differential ring loss and assess how it may bias the results of mark-resighting analyses.Based on 14,849 resightings from 1275 individuals and using multi-state continuous-time hidden Markov models(HMMs) we showed that probability of ring loss was markedly different among colonies,ranging from 0.10 to 0.42 within the first year of marking,whereas the cumulative probability of losing a ring after ten years ranged 0.64 to 0.99.These rates are among the highest estimated when compared to previous studies in waterbirds.Our approach assessing the intra-specific variance in ring loss provided several factors potentially involved,such as the use of glue and the fledgling age accuracy and we could further hypothesise the effect of environmental factors.Finally,our results showed that ring loss can be a significant challenge for the assessment of the species’ population dynamics using mark-recapture methods as survival was consistently underestimated when not accounting for ring loss and varied significantly among different colonies.

A Study on the Impact of Voice-to-Text Technology on Academic Achievement of the Hearing-Impaired

Hearing loss is a significant barrier to academic achievement,with hearing-impaired(HI)individuals often facing challenges in speech recognition,language development,and social interactions.Lip-reading,a crucial skill for HI individuals,is essential for effective communication and learning.However,the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the challenges faced by HI individuals,with the face masks hindering lip-reading.This literature review explores the relationship between hearing loss and academic achievement,highlighting the importance of lip-reading and the potential of artificial intelligence(AI)techniques in mitigating these challenges.The introduction of Voice-to-Text(VtT)technology,which provides real-time text captions,can significantly improve speech recognition and academic performance for HI students.AI models,such as Hidden Markov models and Transformer models,can enhance the accuracy and robustness of VtT technology in diverse educational settings.Furthermore,VtT technology can facilitate better teacher-student interactions,provide transcripts of lectures and classroom discussions,and bridge the gap in standardized testing performance between HI and hearing students.While challenges and limitations exist,the successful implementation of VtT technology can promote inclusive education and enhance academic achievement.Future research directions include popularizing VtT technology,addressing technological barriers,and customizing VtT systems to cater to individual needs.