Asymmetric Mean Annual Temperature Wavelets Surface Air Layer of Berlin for 1701-2021

The regularities of the dynamics of the average annual temperature of Ber­lin from 1701 to 2021 are revealed.A total of 65 wavelets were received.The temperature has a high quantum certainty,and the change in the aver­age annual temperature of Berlin was identified by a model that contains only two components for prediction.The basis of the forecast at 320 years makes it possible to look into the future until the year 2340.The forecast confirms the conclusions made in the CMIP5 report on global warming.With an increase in the number of components in the model up to five,the forecast is possible only until 2060.Therefore,the model with only two components is workable.The trend is characterized by a modified Man­delbrot equation showing exponential growth with a high growth rate of 1.47421.The wave equation also has an amplitude in the form of the Man­delbrot law(in mathematics,the Laplace law,in biology,the Zipf-Pearl law,in econometrics,the Pareto law),when the exponential growth activity is equal to 1.For 1701,the period of oscillation was 2×60.33333≈120.7 years.By 2021,the period decreased and became equal to 87.6 years.The trend is such that by 2340 the period of oscillation will decrease to 30.2 years.Such an increase in fluctuations indicates an imbalance in climate disturbances in temperature in Berlin.For Berlin,the last three years are characterized by sharp decreases in the average annual temperature from 11.8℃ to 10.5℃,i.e.by 12.4% in 2021.Therefore,the forecast is still unstable,as a further decrease in the average annual temperature of Berlin in the near future may change the picture of the forecast.

以树轮宽度重建公元1558年以来华山5-6月平均温度及20世纪中后期升温

通过对秦岭东端华山地区油松树木年轮宽度序列的分析研究,探讨了华山地区油松对气候环境响应的敏感性,结果表明在华山地区油松对气温和降水的响应均高于华山松,与5～6月平均温度相关较高,且通过了0.01显著性信度检验。在此基础上,我们重建了华山地区1558～2006年间5～6月的平均温度,重建序列的方差解释量达到41%。结果显示:华山过去449年中,大部分年份5～6月平均温度在平均值附近波动,变幅不大;重建序列可与秦岭南五台5～7月温度序列进行良好对比,其年际间相关系数达到了0.49(N=246,p<0.0001)。华山地区20世纪20～30年代初的暖期略偏低;20世纪30年代中期至50年代是整个重建时段中低温持续时间较长的时段;20世纪60年代之后,气温波动平缓;从20世纪70年代开始快速升温,对全球变暖有较强响应。

山西五鹿山油松树轮宽度年表的建立及过去百余年5～6月平均气温变化

利用采自山西五鹿山国家自然保护区内的两组油松样本共79根树芯,建立了研究区1893~2008年的树轮宽度年表。统计相关分析表明,油松树轮宽度生长主要受5~6月平均气温(r=-0.55,p<0.001)和同期降水总量(r=0.38,p<0.001)的共同影响,其中5~6月平均气温对树木径向生长的影响更为显著。因此,五鹿山树轮宽度年表可以用来指示5~6月平均气温的变化。在过去105年的有效年表时段(1904~2008年)里,研究区共出现3个高温时段(1924~1932年、1966~1978年和1999~2002年)和2个低温(1937~1951年和1986~1996年)时段,这些高、低温时段可以与周边其他地区树轮重建的气温序列中的高、低温时段相匹配。自1990年以来研究区气温呈逐步上升趋势,但是这一时段的气温仍在历史气温波动范围之内。空间相关分析表明该树轮宽度年表对研究区及周边较大范围的5~6月平均气温都有一定的指示意义。