DIAGNOSIS OF NWP SYSTEMATIC FORECAST ERRORS IN ZONAL MEAN CIRCULATION

It is proved in this paper that NWP systematic forecast errors in the zonal mean circulation are due to the difference in westerly acceleration process during the forecasting period between model and real atmospheres. Those forcing factors which evoke the zonal mean wind variation can be split into various linear terms according to the non-acceleration theorem in a primitive equation system,By applying this tech- nique to the diagnosis of the forecast produets of the T42L9 model in January 1992 and in July 1992, it is indicated that the model has the ability to forecast the zonal mean wind to a reasonable extent, but there are still some errors in several places,especially in the upper troposphere and lower strato- sphere in the mid-latitude region as well as near the surface.The results of analysis by employing this scheme reveal the reason responsible for the systematic forecast errors of the zonal mean wind in the model and the possible way of improving it. It is also shown that non-acceleration theorem can be used as an efficient tool to diagnose the physical processes of NWP models.

Contract System for Circulation of the Right to Rural Land Contractual Management

From the perspective of civil subject theory,law of value,comparative law and history of laws,the thesis expounds that the contract on the transfer of the contractual right of rural lands is in nature a civil contract instead of an administrative one.Then it explores the defects in the contract from the viewpoint of legal value goal,contract law and legal sociology,that is,the relevant provisions in Rural Land Contract Law and Explanations of Supreme People's Court about the Issues concerning the Laws Applicable to the Trial of Cases of Disputes over Rural Land Contracting go against the principle of free contracting and run counter to the legal value goal of justice,so they do not achieve good implementing effect.Finally,the thesis demonstrates and makes some practical legislative proposals to perfect the contract system for circulation of the right to operate constructed rural lands,aiming at improving the circulation rate through perfecting the contract of the right to rural land contractual management,solving the disputes in rural lands circulation and safeguarding the legitimate rights of the farmers.

Dust Storms in North China in 2002: A Case Study of the Low Frequency Oscillation

The low frequency oscillation in both hemispheres and its possible role in the dust weather storm events over North China in 2002 are analyzed as a case study. Results show that the Aleutian Low is linked with the Circumpolar Vortex in the Southern Hemisphere on a 30-60-day oscillation, with a weak Circumpolar Vortex tending to deepen the Aleutian Low which may be helpful for the generation of dust storm events. The possible mechanism behind this is the inter-hemispheric interaction of the mean meridional circulation, with the major variability over East Asia. The zonal mean westerly wind at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in the upper level troposphere may lead that of the Northern Hemisphere, which then impacts the local circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the low frequency oscillation teleconnection is one possible linkage in the coupling between the Southern Hemisphere circulation and dust events over North China. However, the interannual variation of the low frequency oscillation is unclear.

MODULATION OF ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL AND MECHANICAL FORCINGS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF MEAN MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION

Upon investigating the relative locations of internal and external forcing and the resultant mean meridional circula- tion,it was found that thermal forcing and mechanical forcing for the formation of atmospheric mean meridional circu- lation are modulated by a certain ratio.This ratio is determined by the inherent baroclinity,static stability and absolute vorticity of the atmosphere. By employing a parameterization scheme for radiative heating and condensation heating,together with the analysis data of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts,the mean meridional circulation for January was simulated numerically.It was found that latent heat release in the tropics may result in the formation of double-layered Hadley circulation,so do the eddy momentum transfer processes.On the other hand,mean meridional circulations in ex- tra-tropics are mainly determined by external momentum forcing and atmospheric properties of eddy momentum and heat transfer.

ZONAL MEAN STRUCTURES OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TROPOSPHERE

The study of mean circulation fields requires evaluation of eddy foreings in the atmosphere.Due to the difficulty in calculating the eddy forcings on theory,the mean state equations including the eddy forcings were used mostly for diagnostic studies only.Using the geostrophic perturbation solutions obtained by McHall (1991a),we may deal with theoretically the eddy fluxes and their convergence.This allows us to employ the mean state equations for the study of mean circulation fields.It will be found that the time averaged zonal mean structure and circulation of the troposphere at middle and high latitudes can be reproduced basically in terms of the mass and momentum balances in geostrophic wave circulations.

A spectral model based on atmospheric self-memorization principle

Based on the atmospheric self_memorization principle, a complex memory function was introduced and the spectral form of atmospheric self_memorial equation was derived. Setting up and solving the equation constitute a new approach of the numerical weather prediction. Using the spectral model T42L9 as a dynamic kernel, a global self_memorial T42 model (SMT42) was established, with which twelve cases of 30_d integration experiments were carried out. Compared with the T42L9, the SMT42 is much better in 500 hPa forecast not only for daily circulation but also for monthly mean circulation. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of forecast for monthly mean circulation has been improved to 0.42, increased by 0.05, and the root_mean_square error (RMSE) has been reduced from 6.09 to 4.03 dagpm.