On the relation of moderate-short term anomaly of earth resistivity to earthquake

1139 moderate-short term anomalies of earth resistivity before 196 earthquakes with magnitude M_s=3.2-7.9 (the Ms≥4.0 event accounting for 94%) are studied in this paper, the results are concluded as following: ①There is a nonlinear function between anomaly time and magnitude of earthquake. For earthquakes Ms≤5.0 or so anomaly time linearly increases quickly with magnitude increasing; for earthquakes 5.0<M_s<6.5 the increasing rate of the time with magnitude increasing gradually become small; for earthquakes M_≥6.5 the rate is quite small.②There is a nonlinear exponential function between anomaly amplitude and magnitude. For earthquakes Ms≤5.0 or so the amplitude increases slowly with the increasing of magnitude, for earthquakes 5.0<M_s<6.5 the increasing of the amplitude is gradually accelerated with magnitude increasing; for earthquakes M_s≥6.5 the increasing is accelerated quickly with magnitude increasing. The two non-linear functions mentioned above are interpreted qualitatively, and the mechanism of this phenomenon is discussed based on the model of rheomorphic medium.

Studies on hybridization effects of different geographic populations of Chlamys farreri Ⅱ.The medium-term growth and development of Chlamys farreri populations from China and Russia and their reciprocal crosses

Based on the research of juvenile (2, 3, 4 months) growth and survival of three populations of two different geographic areas in Chlamys farreri from Russian and China and their F1 hybrids derived from Chinese cultural population (CC) (?) × Russian population (RW) (?) , Chinese wild population (CW) (?) × Russian population (RW) (?), Russian population (RW) (?) × Chinese wild population (CW) (?) , the study of the medium-term (6, 8, 10, 12 months) growth and development of Chlamys farreri was carried out. The four determined results indicated that there existed different extent heterosis (3% -52%) for the growth in three types of F1 hybrids, and the offspring derived from CC(?) ×R(?) had a stronger heterosis among the crosses at the medium-term; the uptrend among traits are wet weight >shell width>shell length> shell height, Chinese cultural population could be recognized as excellent parent, and seasonal variations influence very much on the daily increment and growth rate of each trait of Chlamys farreri and it is only able to survive and could barely grow in winter (6-8 months), but grows fast in temperate season (10-12 months).

ENSO hindcast skill of the IAP-DecPreS near-term climate prediction system:comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization

本文使用中国科学院大气物理研究所近期气候预测系统IAP-DecPreS,评估了全场初始化和异常场初始化对ENSO的预测技巧。结果表明:采用异常场初始化方法对典型ENSO和El NioModoki的预报技巧均优于采用全场初始化方法的预报技巧。采用异常场初始化方法的回报结果能超前10个月回报强ENSO事件,超前4-7个月回报相对较弱的ENSO事件。采用异常场初始化方法对El Nio Modoki和典型ENSO的预报技巧相当。此外,采用异常场初始化方法的回报结果能超前1-4个月模拟出典型ENSO和El NioModoki的冬季海表面温度、降水以及大气环流异常的主要空间分布特征。

ANALYSIS ON SHORT-TERM PRECURSORY ANOMALIES AND SEQUENCE CHARACTERISTIC OF NINGLANG EARTHQUAKE 1998

From Octobet 1998 to January 1999,5 earthquakes ( M s≥5) occurred between Ninglang and Yanyuan counties (27°07′～27°12′N,100°40′～101°00′E area).They were situated in 140km southwest of the Xichang.Among them,the largest one is M s 6 2 on November 19,1998.Based on small seismic data by the seismic remote sensing station of Xichang and the seismological station of Muli,and regional observation data,passing through careful observation and scientific analyses,we had made better forecasts before the earthquakes.That results obvious social benefits.By processing data of precursory earthquakes,such as,original observation data of total geomagnetic intensity from the station of Xichang,pressure capacitance stressometer and quartz horizaontal pendulum tiltmeter from the Xiaomiao station of Xichang,we summarized the sequence characteristics of the series earthquakes.The information about short\|term anomaly of gruond strain,total geomagnetic intensity and ground tilt before the earthquake is emphatically explained.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF SHORT TERM EFFECT OF SST ANOMALIES

Using a 5-layer P- o mixed coordinates primitive equations model, a process of heavy rain is simulated that occurred over the middle-and lower-reaches of the Changjiang River on July 1- 2, 1991 and numerical experiments are done of the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over different waters on the precipitation. The result has shown that the appearance of SST anomaly is followed in a short term (2 or 3 days) by. A change in the pattern of circulation as well as in precipitation to some extent.

Short-term and imminent geomagnetic anomalies of the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake and exploration on earthquake forecast

The diurnal variation of the geomagnetic vertical component is exhibited mainly by changes of phase and amplitude before strong earthquakes. Based on data recorded by the network of geomagnetic observatories in China for many years, the anomalous features of the appearance time of the minima of diurnal variations （i.e, low-point time） of the geo- magnetic vertical components and the variation of their spatial distribution （i.e, phenomena of low-point displacement） have been studied before the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The strong aftershocks after two months＇ quiescence of M6 aftershocks of the Ms8.0 event were forecasted based on these studies. There are good correlativities between these geomagnetic anoma- lies and occurrences of earthquakes. It has been found that most earthquakes occur near the boundary line of sudden changes of the low-point time and generally within four days before or after the 27th or 41st day counting from the day of the appearance of the anomaly. In addition, the imminent anomalies in diurnal-variation amplitudes near the epicentral areas have also been studied before the Wenchuan earthquake.

ANALYSES OF ERRORS IN MEDIUM-TERM NUMERICAL FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 1998

By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast cannot have large improvement by translational corrections. (2) The important cause for the ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast to have errors in 1998 is that the astronomical tide is not included in the model. (3) Two indexes are found from which it can be judged that ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast will have errors if the astronomical tide is ignored in the model : ① When the 54.7?line under the moon of the nodical month astronomical singularities coincides with the trough-line of the subtropical jet flow from 50癊 to 150癊 on the 500 hPa level at 2000 L.T. of the same day, and is approximately vertical (α>60? with the isotherm, then the day 0 2 days after the appearance of the nodical month astronomical singularities is defined as the initial day. Then in three successive days after the initial day, ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast of the northern latitude of the 588 line at 120 癊 will have continuous errors as large as two latitudes (7/9). Otherwise, it won’t have continuous errors (13/13). ② Otherwise, if the 54.7 ?line is in the range of a low pressure between two high pressures, then there is a dispersive error on the day of the nodical month astronomical singularities (5/7). There is not any error (6/6) otherwise.

Stroke: Medium and long-term mortality and associated factors in French-speaking West Africa, case of Benin

Introduction: Stroke is the leading cause of mortality and physical disability in sub-Saharan Africa. Objective: Determining medium-term and long-term mortality for stroke and identifying associated factors. Method: It consists in a cross-sectional, prospective, descriptive and analytical study that was conducted from April 1 to August 31, 2013 in the Neurology Department of CNHU-HKM in Cotonou. It involved patients who have known stroke for at least 6 months, and were all admitted and discharged later on. The disease survivors were re-contacted and examined again at home or at hospital. Then, the number of deceased was systematically recorded with precision of death time-limit. Results: The overall mortality rate was 29%. Mortality was higher with patients over 70 years with a frequency of 57.1%. The medium-term mortality rate was 25% against 4% for long-term. The average time-limit for death occurrence after the vascular incident was 7 months ± 6.4 months. Prognostic factors of mortality were: the age of the patient (IC95% = 7.73 [1.49 - 39.99], p = 0.015 ), marital status (IC95% = 0.27 [0.08 to 0.94], p = 0.039 ) and the presence of aphasia (IC95% = 5.52 [1.45 to 20.94 ], p = 0.012). Conclusion: Stroke mortality still remains significant, even after the patients have been discharged from hospital. A good psychological family support and efficient aphasia coverage are essential for its reduction.

Medium-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Multivariable Linear and Non-Linear Regression

Medium-term forecasting is an important category of electric load forecasting that covers a time span of up to one year ahead. It suits outage and maintenance planning, as well as load switching operation. We propose a new methodol-ogy that uses hourly daily loads to predict the next year hourly loads, and hence predict the peak loads expected to be reached in the next coming year. The technique is based on implementing multivariable regression on previous year's hourly loads. Three regression models are investigated in this research: the linear, the polynomial, and the exponential power. The proposed models are applied to real loads of the Jordanian power system. Results obtained using the pro-posed methods showed that their performance is close and they outperform results obtained using the widely used ex-ponential regression technique. Moreover, peak load prediction has about 90% accuracy using the proposed method-ology. The methods are generic and simple and can be implemented to hourly loads of any power system. No extra in-formation other than the hourly loads is required.

Medium Term Load Forecasting for Jordan Electric Power System Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm Based on Least Square Regression Methods

This paper presents a technique for Medium Term Load Forecasting (MTLF) using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm based on Least Squares Regression Methods to forecast the electric loads of the Jordanian grid for year of 2015. Linear, quadratic and exponential forecast models have been examined to perform this study and compared with the Auto Regressive (AR) model. MTLF models were influenced by the weather which should be considered when predicting the future peak load demand in terms of months and weeks. The main contribution for this paper is the conduction of MTLF study for Jordan on weekly and monthly basis using real data obtained from National Electric Power Company NEPCO. This study is aimed to develop practical models and algorithm techniques for MTLF to be used by the operators of Jordan power grid. The results are compared with the actual peak load data to attain minimum percentage error. The value of the forecasted weekly and monthly peak loads obtained from these models is examined using Least Square Error (LSE). Actual reported data from NEPCO are used to analyze the performance of the proposed approach and the results are reported and compared with the results obtained from PSO algorithm and AR model.

Long Term Application of a Vehicle-Based Health Monitoring System to Short and Medium Span Bridges and Damage Detection Sensitivity

Largest portion of the bridge stock in almost any country and bridge owning organisation consists on ordinary bridges that has short or medium spans and are now deteriorating due to aging, etc. Therefore, it is becoming an important social concern to develop and put to practical use simple and efficient health monitoring systems for existing short and medium span (10 - 30 m) bridges. In this paper, one practical solution to the problem for condition assessment of short and medium span bridges was discussed. A vehicle-based measurement with a public bus as part of a public transit system (called “Bus monitoring system”) has been developed to be capable of detecting damage that may affect the structural safety of a bridge from long term vibration measurement data collected while the vehicle (bus) crossed the target bridges. This paper systematically describes how the system has been developed. The bus monitoring system aims to detect the transition from the damage acceleration period, in which the structural safety of an aged bridge declines sharply, to the deterioration period by continually monitoring the bridge of interest. To evaluate the practicality of the newly developed bus monitoring system, it has been field-tested over a period of about four years by using an in-service fixed-route bus operating on a bus route in the city of Ube, Yamaguchi Prefecture, Japan. The verification results thus obtained are also described in this paper. This study also evaluates the sensitivity of “characteristic deflection”, which is a bridge (health) condition indicator used by the bus monitoring system, in damage detection. Sensitivity of “characteristic deflection” is verified by introducing artificial damage into a bridge that has ended its service life and is awaiting removal. As the results, it will be able to make a rational long-term health monitoring system for existing short and mediumspan bridges, and then the system helps bridge administrators to establish the rational maintenance strategies.

Study on Medium- and Long-term Strong Earthquake msk Along the Zhangjiakou-Penglai Fault Zone

The Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone lies in the northern part of North China Plain and extends along the Zhangjiakou-Huailai-Sanhe-Tianjin-Bohai Sea-Penglai-Yantai-North Huanghai Sea line, it is about 900 km long and some 250-km wide in a northwest direction. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M 8.0 and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquakes occurred in the fault zone. In this paper an analysis of Gutenberg- Richter’s empirical relation and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments of the fault zone separated by the 117°line indicates that they obey a Poison process and, hence, a calculation from it yields a cumulative probability of strong earthquake occurrence along the two segments before 2010, i. e. the probability of M6.0 earthquake occurrence is 0.80 along the eastern segment and the probability of M7. 0 earthquake occurrence is 0.76 along the western segment of the fault zone.

POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SHORT-TERM CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN EAST ASIA VIA SNOW COVER ON THE TIBETAN PLATEAU

Snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) has been shown to be essential for the East Asian summer monsoon.In this paper, we demonstrate that tropical cyclone(TC) 04B(1999) in the northern Indian Ocean, which made landfall during the autumn of 1999, may have contributed to climate anomalies over East Asia during the following spring and summer by increasing snow cover on the TP. Observations indicate that snow cover on the TP increased markedly after TC 04B(1999) made landfall in October of 1999. Sensitivity experiments, in which the TC was removed from a numerical model simulation of the initial field, verified that TC 04B(1999) affected the distribution as well as increased the amount of snow on the TP. In addition, the short-term numerical modeling of the climate over the region showed that the positive snow cover anomaly induced negative surface temperature, negative sensible heat flux, positive latent heat flux, and positive soil temperature anomalies over the central and southern TP during the following spring and summer. These climate anomalies over the TP were associated with positive(negative) summer precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River valley(along the southeastern coast of China).

Research on TSIP method for medium－term earthquake prediction

This paper introduces the space increased probability of strong earthquakes (SIP)-a new design based on the algorithm CN of time increased probability of strong earthquake (TIP). The authors have done a prediction research passing in review of eight strong earthquakes with M>6 in the last 20 years in East China. The result shows that six of the eight strong earthquakes were in the space-time domain of the time and space probability of strong earthquake (TSIP) prediction. The prediction accuracy is 75%, the space-time domain rate of the TSIP precaution is 5%, the diagnosed value of R is 0. 70. So the TSIP as a method of medium-term earthquake prediction has good practicality, efficiency and prospects of applying.

The Study of Medium- and Short-term Prediction for Artux Earthquake (M_S=6.9) and Usunan Earthquake (M_S=5.8)

In this paper, the process of medium- and short-term prediction (submitted in special cards) of the Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and the Usurian earthquake (MS=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The imminent seismic risk regions are judged based on long- and medium-term seismic risk regions and annual seismic risk regions determined by national seismologic analysis, combined with large seismic situation analysis. We trace and analyze the seismic situation in large areas, and judge principal risk regions or belts of seismic activity in a year, by integrating the large area’s seismicity with geodetic deformation evolutional characteristics. As much as possible using information, we study synthetically observational information for long-medium- and short-term (time domain) and large-medium -small dimensions (space domain), and approach the forecast region of forthcoming earthquakes from the large to small magnitude. A better effect has been obtained. Some questions about earthquake prediction are discussed.

“Small earthquake modulation window” and its applications in medium－term prediction

Based on the observations of many years, it has been found that “small earthquake modulation windows” exist inthe situation of some special geological structures, which respond sensitively to the variations of regional stressfields and the activities of earthquake swarms greater than moderate strong magnitude, and can supply some precursory information. More than two “small earthquake modulation windows” can also provide a general orientation of the first main earthquake of a earthquake cluster. Compared with “seismic window” based on frequency itis no doubt that the “modulation-window” has an unique characteristic of applicational significance to mediumterm earthquake prediction with a time scale of two or three years.

Study on medium-short term earthquake forecast in Yunnan Province by precursory events

The medium-short term forecast for a certain kinds of main earthquake events might be possible with the time-to-failure method presented by Varnes (1989), Bufe and Varnes (1993), which is to simulate an accelerative releasing model of precursory earthquake energy. By fitting the observed data with the theoretical formula, a medium-short term forecast technique for the main shock events could be established, by which the location, time and magnitude of the main shock could be determined. The data used in the paper are obtained from the earthquake catalogue recorded by Yunnan Regional Seismological Network with a time coverage of 1965~2002. The statistical analyses for the past 37 years show that the data of M2.5 earthquakes were fairly complete. In the present paper, 30 main shocks occurred in Yunnan region were simulated. For 25 of them, the forecasting time and magnitude from the simulation of precursory sequence are very close to the actual values with the precision of about 0.57 (magnitude unit). Suppose that the last event of the precursory sequence is known, then the time error for the forecasting main shock is about 0.64 year. For the other 5 main shocks, the simulation cannot be made due to the insufficient precursory events for the full determination of energy accelerating curve or disturbance to the energy-release curve. The results in the paper indicate that there is no obviously linear relation in the optimal searching radius for the main shock and the precursory events because Yunnan is an active region with damage earthquakes and moderate and small earthquakes. However, there is a strong correlation between the main shock moment and the coefficient k/m. The optimal fitting range for the forecasting time and magnitude can be further reduced using the relation between the main shock moment lgM0 and the coefficient lgk/m and the value range of the restricting index m, by which the forecast precision of the simulated main shock can be improved. The time-to-failure method is used to fit 30 main shocks in the paper and more than 80% of them have acquired better results, indicating that the method is prospective for its ability to forecast the known main shock sequence. Therefore, the prospect is cheerful to make medium-short term forecast for the forthcoming main shocks by the precursory events.

Total Hip Replacement: Short- and Medium-Term Morbidity and Mortality in the Department of Orthopedic Traumatology of Donka University Hospital, Guinea-Conakry

Introduction: Total hip prostheses are a reliable means of treating hip disorders. It is indicated when pain and reduced mobility of the hip become incompatible with the patient’s daily activities. In low-income countries, the risk factors for hip disease are numerous, but the means for its management, such as total hip prostheses, are not. The aim of this work was to determine the morbi-mortality of total hip prostheses in the short and medium term in our department and to review the literature. Patients and Method: This was a prospective and descriptive study over a period of 9 years. It involved 50 THPs performed on 45 patients. Patients who had received a THP and were followed up for at least two years were included. We excluded patients who were lost to follow-up. The Moore-type posterolateral minimally invasive approach was used. Complications were investigated from the immediate postoperative period and in the medium term. The final functional results were evaluated according to the Postel Merle d’Aubigné score. Results: We performed 50 THPs out of 750 procedures, i.e. , 6.6%. The indications were: primary coxarthrosis 60%, necrosis of the femoral head 26%, post-infectious balloon hip 4%, and pseudarthrosis of the femoral neck 10%. The average time to the consultation was 2.4 years with extremes of 1 and 5 years. According to the terrain, sickle cell disease represented 18%, tuberculosis 12%. Postoperative complications were lameness 12%, dislocation 6%, suppuration 6%, death 4%, peri-prosthetic fracture 8%, loosening 2%, peri-articular ossification 2%, and paralysis of the external popliteal nerve 2%. Conclusion: Whoever performs a THP is obliged to monitor the patient as long as he/she is alive. Complications are possible at any time and can negatively change the assigned goal and force the surgeon to be expensive and sometimes inconclusive secondary interventions.

Determination of Regions With Medium-Term Risk of Strong Earthquakes: Pre-warning Active Faults

To predict the area with frequent seismicity and the future risky region of strong earthquakes on the time scale of one or several years is a very important and urgent problem that needs to be solved.On the basis of active fault research,pre-warning active faults that have been active recently will be discussed; then the medium-term risky region of strong earthquakes will be delimited around the pre-warning active faults.This method proves to be effective.