Synergistic Effect of the Planetary-scale Disturbance, Typhoon and Meso-β-scale Convective Vortex on the Extremely Intense Rainstorm on 20 July 2021 in Zhengzhou

On 20 July 2021,northern Henan Province in China experienced catastrophic flooding as a result of an extremely intense rainstorm,with a record-breaking hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm during 0800–0900 UTC and daily accumulated rainfall in Zhengzhou City exceeding 600 mm(“Zhengzhou 7.20 rainstorm”for short).The multi-scale dynamical and thermodynamical mechanisms for this rainstorm are investigated based on station-observed and ERA-5 reanalysis datasets.The backward trajectory tracking shows that the warm,moist air from the northwestern Pacific was mainly transported toward Henan Province by confluent southeasterlies on the northern side of a strong typhoon In-Fa(2021),with the convergent southerlies associated with a weaker typhoon Cempaka(2021)concurrently transporting moisture northward from South China Sea,supporting the rainstorm.In the upper troposphere,two equatorward-intruding potential vorticity(PV)streamers within the planetary-scale wave train were located over northern Henan Province,forming significant divergent flow aloft to induce stronger ascending motion locally.Moreover,the converged moist air was also blocked by the mountains in western Henan Province and forced to rise so that a deep meso-β-scale convective vortex(MβCV)was induced over the west of Zhengzhou City.The PV budget analyses demonstrate that the MβCV development was attributed to the positive feedback between the rainfall-related diabatic heating and high-PV under the strong upward PV advection during the Zhengzhou 7.20 rainstorm.Importantly,the MβCV was forced by upper-level larger-scale westerlies becoming eastward-sloping,which allowed the mixtures of abundant raindrops and hydrometeors to ascend slantwise and accumulate just over Zhengzhou City,resulting in the record-breaking hourly rainfall locally.

MAINTAINABLE MECHANISM OF MESO-β SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM

By means of the Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5(MM5)with a horizontal resolution of 20 km.the maintainable mechanism of Meso-β scale Convective System(Mβ CS)has been investigated on the basis of simulation of the temporal and spatial thermodynamics structure of the MβCS which occurred in Wuhan and its surroundings on 21 July 1998.The occurrence of the significant warm-core in the center of the MβCS happened in Changjiang River Basin between the Mufu Mountain and the Dabie Mountain.To the southern side of the MβCS,there exist the southwest low-level jet(LLJ)and the vertical secondary circulation in the low and middle troposphere respectively.In respect to the northern of the MβCS,the northwest jet emerges in the upper troposphere,accompanied with cold and dry atmosphere downdrafts,resulting in another secondary circulation.The foregoing mentioned vertical wind shear provides a favorable dynamical environment for the intensification and maintenance of the MβCS.Equally important,the latent heat release associated with the MβCS produces the warm center in the middle troposphere and the pressure falls.The pressure drop then accelerates air parcels toward the low leading to strong convergence as well as the intensified convection,establishing a positive feedback between the convection and the latent heat release,which is the thermodynamic mechanism of the development and maintenance of the MβCS.

Numerical Simulation of Microphysics in Meso-β-Scale Convective Cloud System Associated with a Mesoscale Convective Complex

Numerical simulation of meso-β-scale convective cloud systems associated with a PRE-STORM MCC case has been carried out using a 2-D version of the CSU Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) nonhydrostatic model with parameterized microphysics. It is found that the predicted meso-r-scale convective phenomena arc basically unsteady under the situation of strong shear at low-levels, while the meso-β-scale convective system is maintained up to 3 hours or more. The meso -β- scale cloud system exhibits characteristics of a multi-celled convective storm in which the meso-r-scale convective cells have lifetime of about 30 min. Pressure perturbation depicts a meso-low after a half hour in the low levels. As the cloud system evolves, the meso-low intensifies and extends to the upshear side and covers the entire domain in the mid-lower levels with the peak values of 5-8 hPa. Temperature perturbation depicts a warm region in the middle levels through the entire simulation period. The meso-r-scale warm cores with peak values of 4-8 ℃ are associated with strong convective cells. The cloud top evaporation causes a stronger cold layer around the cloud top levels.Simulation of microphysics exhibits that graupel is primarily concentrated in the strong convective cells forming the main source of convective rainfall after one hour of simulation time. Aggregates are mainly located in the stratiform region and decaying convective cells which produce the stratiform rainfall. Riming of the ice crystals is the predominant precipitation formation mechanism in the convection region, whereas aggregation of ice crystals is the predominant one in the stratiform region, which is consistent with observations. Sensitivity experiments of ice-phase mierophysical processes show that the microphysical structures of the convective cloud system can be simulated better with the diagnosed aggregation collection efficiencies.

Convective Scale Structure and Evolution of a Squall Line Observed by C-Band Dual Doppler Radar in an Arid Region of Northwestern China

A long-lived and loosely organized squall line moved rapidly across U¨ru¨mqi, the capital city of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China on 26 June 2005, generating hail and strong winds. The squall line was observed by a dual Doppler radar system in a field experiment conducted in 2004 and 2005 by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and the local meteorological bureau in northwestern China. The 3D wind fields within the squall line were retrieved through dual Doppler analyses and a variational Doppler radar analysis system （VDRAS）. The formation and structure of the squall line as well as the genesis and evolution of embedded convective cells were investigated. During its life period, the squall line consisted of six storm cells extending about 100 km in length, and produced hail of about 25 mm in diameter and strong surface winds up to 11 m s^-1. Radar observations revealed a broad region of stratiform rain in a meso-β cyclone, with the squall line located to the west of this. Two meso-γ scale vortices were found within the squall line. Compared to typical squall lines in moist regions, such as Guangdong Province and Shanghai, which tend to be around 300–400 km in length, have echo tops of 17–19 km, and produce maximum surface winds of about 25 m s^-1 and temperature variations of about 8-C this squall line system had weaker maximum reflectivity （55 dBZ）, a lower echo top （13 km） and smaller extension （about 100 km）, relatively little stratiform rainfall preceding the convective line, and a similar moving speed and temperature variation at the surface.

Advanced Method for Forecasting and Warning of Severe Convective Weather and Local-scale Hazards

Hurricane Ida ferociously affected many south-eastern and eastern parts of the United States,making it one of the strongest hurricanes in recent years.Advanced forecast and warning tool has been used to track the path of the ex-Hurricane,Ida,as it left New Orleans on its way towards the northeast,accurately predicting significant supercell development above New York City on September 01,2021.This advanced method accurately detected the area with the highest possible level of convective instability with 24-h lead time and even Level 5,devised in the categorical outlooks legend of the system.Therefore,an extreme level implied a very high probability of the local-scale hazard occurring above the NYC.Cloud model output fields(updrafts and downdrafts,wind shear,near-surface convergence,the vertical component of relative vorticity)show the rapid development of a strong supercell storm with rotating updrafts and a mesocyclone.The characteristic hook-shaped echo signature visible in the reflectivity patterns indicates a signal for a highly precipitable(HP)supercell with the possibility of tornado initiation.Open boundary conditions represent a good basis for simulating a tornado that evolved from a supercell storm,initialized with initial data obtained from a real-time simulation in the period when the bow echo and tornado-like signature occurred.Тhe modeled results agree well with the observations.

A Numerical Verification of Self-Similar Multiplicative Theory for Small-Scale Atmospheric Turbulent Convection

The self-similar multiplicative theory(SSM theory), aims to interpret the scaling behavior of the temperature structure function. In the present paper, the author report results from a numerical simulation of atmospheric turbulent convection in order to verify this theory. The simulation was based on a shell model which was deduced from simplified atmospheric convection equations. The numerical results agreed well with the theory prediction of scaling law from the first order to the eighth order. They also showed that the prediction of this theory was better than that given by the Kolmogorov's theory in 1941, log-normal, and β model theories.

Lie Group Analysis for the Effects of Variable Fluid Viscosity and Thermal Radiation on Free Convective Heat and Mass Transfer with Variable Stream Condition

Natural convective boundary layer flow and heat and mass transfer of a fluid with variable viscosity and thermal radiation over a vertical stretching surface in the presence of suction/injection is investigated by Lie group analysis. Fluid viscosity is assumed to vary as a linear function of temperature. The symmetry groups admitted by the corresponding boundary value problem are obtained by using a special form of Lie group transformations viz. scaling group of transformations. An exact solution is obtained for translation symmetry and numerical solutions for scaling symmetry. The effects of fluid viscosity and thermal radiation on the dimensionless velocity, temperature and concentration profiles are shown graphically. Comparisons with previously published works are performed and excellent agreement between the results is obtained. The conclusion is drawn that the flow field and temperature profiles are significantly influenced by these parameters.

Development of the Convective Boundary Layer Capping with a Thick Neutral Layer in Badanjilin:Observations and Simulations

In this study, the development of a convective boundary layer （CBL） in the Badaujilin region was investigated by comparing the observation data of two cases. A deep neutral layer capped a CBL that occurred on 30 August 2009. This case was divided into five sublayers from the surface to higher atmospheric elevations： surface layer, mixed layer, inversion layer, neutral layer, and sub-inversion layer. The development process of the CBL was divided into three stages： S1, S2, and S3. This case was quite different from the development of the three-layer CBL observed on 31 August 2009 because the mixed layer of the five-layer CBL （CBL5） eroded the neutral layer during S2. The specific initial structure of the CBL5 was correlated to the synoptic background of atmosphere during nighttime. The three-stage development process of the CBL5 was confirmed by six simulations using National Center for Atmospheric Research （USA） large-eddy simulation （NCAR-LES）, and some of its characteristics are presented in detail.

Analysis on the Meso-scale System Activity and the Structure Characteristics of A Short-time Rainstorm

By using the rainfall data in the regional automatic station,FY-2E satellite data,NCEP reanalysis data,the evolution features and the structure characteristics of a meso-scale convective system(MCS) which happened on May 6 in 2010 in Loudi City of Hunan Province were analyzed.The results showed that MCS was the important influence system for the generation and development of strong precipitation.The equivalent blackbody brightness temperature(TBB) field of satellite inversion could directly reflect the convective activity of cumulus,the precipitation distribution and the intensity characteristics in the rainstorm process.TBB low value belt had the good corresponding relationship with the rainstorm falling zone.The disturbance flow field and the height field which passed Barnes band-pass wave filtering represented that there existed the obvious high-layer anticyclonic circulation and the low-layer cyclonic circulation near the rainstorm zone.The divergence in the high layer and the convergence in the low layer enhanced the occurrence and development of MCS.In addition,the disturbance temperature field revealed the main source of energy which the occurrence and development of strong convective weather needed.

Analysis on the Meso-scale Characteristics of a Hail Process in Linyi Area

[Objective] The research aimed to study the meso-scale characteristics of a hail process in Linyi area. [Method] By comprehensively using MICAPS conventional observation data, automatic encryption ground station, MM5 model product and Doppler weather radar data, a strong convective hail weather process which happened in Shandong Peninsula and southeast of Shandong on May 30, 2010 was analyzed. The circulation background and physical mechanism of strong convection weather occurrence, the features of meso- and micro-scale systems were discussed. Some occurrence and development rules of such weather were found. [Result] The strong convective weather was mainly affected by the cold vortex and translot. The high-altitude northwest airflow, low-level southwest airflow, dry and cold air at the high layer, warm and wet air at the low layer, forward-tilting trough caused the strong convective weather. The radar echo analysis showed that the radar echo in the process belonged to the typical multi-monomer windstorm echo, and the strong echo zone was in the forefront of echo. When the convection development was the strongest, the echo intensity reached 65 dBz, and the echo top height surpassed 11 km. As the development of windstorm monomer, the big-value zone of vertical liquid water content product had the jumping formation and disappearance. Moreover, there was obvious weak echo zone. The windstorm monomer moved to the southeast direction as the precipitation system. In the right front of monomer moving direction, there was hook echo feature. The evolution characteristics of radial speed field at the different elevation angles before and after the hail weather occurrence were analyzed. It was found that the radial speed field had some premonitory variations before the hail weather occurrence. Doppler radar product was used to improve the initial field of MM5 model, which could improve the forecast effect in the certain degree and the accuracy of short-time forecast and nowcasting. [Conclusion] The research accumulated the experience for the short-term forecast and nowcasting work of strong convective weather in future.

一次冷涡背景下次天气尺度系统对强对流环境场的影响

在同一东北冷涡背景下,2016年6月12—13日山西境内连续2 d出现强对流天气,12日为分散性对流而13日为大范围强对流。基于多源资料通过对比探讨次天气尺度系统及其演变对风暴环境进而对风暴结构的影响,得出以下结论:(1)两日风暴强度和风暴结构差异显著。6月12日对流孤立分散且回波强度小于55 dBZ,而13日准线性风暴发展成尺度较大的弓形回波引发大范围强对流天气,回波强度达60 dBZ。(2)此次过程的关键影响系统为冷涡背景下的次天气尺度低涡。12日次天气尺度低压扰动开始出现,距离远而未影响山西;13日低压扰动东移发展为次天气尺度切断低涡,低涡相关的地面冷锋及850 hPa切变线触发山西上游对流。(3)12日低层水汽含量低,0~3 km垂直风切变弱,13日低涡前偏南水汽输送使低层显著增湿,叠加中层干冷空气形成不稳定层结,受低涡影响0~3 km风垂直切变增强至5.0×10-3s-1,冷锋触发的对流风暴在上述环境下强烈发展并产生阵风锋,阵风锋组织风暴形成飑线,冷池与0~3 km风切变相互作用使飑线维持。(4)13日有利于飑线发展的环境要素与东北冷涡西侧的次天气尺度切断低涡系统密切相关,次天气尺度低涡是飑线形成发展的关键系统。

基于WRF模式的好溪流域致洪暴雨千米尺度预报研究

鉴于好溪流域内多山地和丘陵,梅汛期和台汛期常突发强暴雨,致使其千米尺度下的数值预报难度较大的问题,选取好溪流域2015~2020年的10场致洪暴雨事件,利用中尺度数值天气预报模式WRF和GFS预报数据进行6、30、54 h的回顾性预报,并测试了5种云微物理参数化方案的敏感性。结果表明,在千米尺度下,WRF模式模拟的降雨量偏小,对山区的预报效果优于河谷地区;Lin方案的整体预报效果最佳,而WSM3方案最差;选取的10场极端降水事件受到台风和西南低空急流等异常天气的影响,Lin方案和WSM5方案适用性较好;WRF模式对暴雨的预报效果优于大暴雨。研究结果对于提高山区小流域致洪降雨的模拟和预报精度具有借鉴意义。

GOES-16 ABI观测和ERA5全天空模拟亮温揭示的热带对流水平特征尺度对比分析

本研究通过将GOES-16 ABI观测亮温和ERA5再分析资料的全天空模拟亮温进行对比分析,发现观测亮温和模拟亮温对流低值区位置大体接近,也能够定性反映出对流从发展到减弱的日变化过程,但亮温低值区域的强度存在较大差异。即使把高分辨率ABI通道13观测亮温平均到ERA5分辨率(0.25°×0.25°),在热带对流区的低亮温强度仍然高于ERA5全天空模拟亮温。因此利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)和离散傅里叶变换(Discrete Fourier Transform,DFT)对任意选择的两对流区域内的观测和模拟亮温进行了尺度分析和对比。在其中对流较强的区域内,当ABI观测亮温的主成分分量从1增加到9时,水平特征尺度从700 km逐渐减小到150 km。ERA5全天空模拟亮温从主成分1增加到4时,水平特征尺度从950 km减小到270 km空间尺度,但当主成分4增加到9时,特征尺度几乎不变。在对流较弱的另一区域也能够发现ERA5模拟亮温对对流水平特征尺度有明显高估。ERA5模拟亮温各主成分的相位和观测亮温存在2 h以内的误差。由于ERA5全天空模拟亮温低值区与ERA5云冰路径大值区吻合度较高,由此可以推测ERA5云冰路径误差是造成ERA5全天空模拟亮温与ABI观测亮温差别的主要原因之一。

华南地区对流性和大尺度降水特征分析

华南是中国年降水量最多的区域之一。在全球变暖的背景下,降水在区域和尺度上已发生较大的变化,干湿季降水的范围在扩大,华南区域性极端降水事件的影响范围呈显著上升趋势,但不同的降水类型变化及影响并不相同。为进一步了解华南地区不同类型降水在全球变暖背景下如何响应变化,本文基于ERA5再分析降水资料采用线性相关、趋势分析、小波分析等方法研究了1960-2022年华南地区对流性降水和大尺度降水特征。研究表明:(1)华南冬季以大尺度降水为主,其他季节以对流性降水为主。(2)华南对流性降水和大尺度降水在冬季均呈增加趋势,其他季节对流性降水大部分呈减少趋势。冬季华南对流性降水在20世纪80年代至21世纪初存在较为显著的2~4年周期变化;春季对流性降水在20世纪90年代至21世纪初存在由偏多转偏少的年代际特征;在秋季,显著的周期变化主要在20世纪90年代以前。大尺度降水周期变化特征除冬季外,其余季节均与对流性降水较为一致。(3)广东和广西4-10月的总降水主要是对流性降水产生(对流性降水占总降水的65%左右),8月占比最多(广东71.8%,广西69.0%);海南前汛期对流性降水占比(5月最高80%以上)明显高于后汛期,即使进入秋冬季,对流性降水占比依然维持在50%左右。(4)海南对流性降水和大尺度降水的日变化强度最强,广西的对流性降水强度最弱。广东、广西和海南的降水最强时段分别发生在13:00(北京时,下同)-17:00、15:00-17:00和14:00-16:00。大尺度降水广东集中在09:00-17:00;广西地区从04:00开始加强,午后开始减弱,最强时段为10:00前后;海南在8月前最强时段为12:00-17:00,9月下旬后最强时段为15:00-16:00。综上分析可见,不同季节不同类型的降水表现特征并不相同,因此今后降水研究中有必要继续考虑不同类型降水的影响。

Scaling Laws Behind Penetrative Turbulence:History and Perspectives

An unstably stratified flow entering into a stably stratified flow is referred to as penetrative convection,which is crucial to many physical processes and has been thought of as a key factor for extreme weather conditions.Past theoretical,numerical,and experimental studies on penetrative convection are reviewed,along with field studies providing insights into turbulence modeling.The physical factors that initiate penetrative convection,including internal heat sources,nonlinear constitutive relationships,centrifugal forces and other complicated factors are summarized.Cutting-edge methods for understanding transport mechanisms and statistical properties of penetrative turbulence are also documented,e.g.,the variational approach and quasilinear approach,which derive scaling laws embedded in penetrative turbulence.Exploring these scaling laws in penetrative convection can improve our understanding of large-scale geophysical and astrophysical motions.To better the model of penetrative turbulence towards a practical situation,new directions,e.g.,penetrative convection in spheres,and radiation-forced convection,are proposed.

一次高原地区强降水过程的对流可分辨尺度集合预报评估

利用FNL(Final Reanalysis Data)、ERA5(ECMWF Reanalysis V5)再分析资料和GPM(Global Precipitation Measurement)全球逐半小时降水数据,选取我国西南高原地区一次强降水过程,研究了对流尺度集合预报中两种初始扰动方法BGM(Breeding Growth Mode)和LBGM法(Local Breeding Growth Mode)对复杂地形强降水的预报能力。基于对象诊断的MODE(Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation)方法评估了模式对降水对象的位置、结构、强度的模拟能力,并与TS(Threat Score)等评分方法进行对比分析,综合评估模式预报性能,表明:(1)基于BGM和LBGM法生成初始扰动的集合预报系统BGM-EPS和LBGM-EPS,集合平均预报对24 h各个量级降水评分均优于控制预报,且暴雨的TS评分LBGM-EPS优于BGM-EPS;(2)整体上,WRF模式能够较好捕获降水对象,尤其是对于高原山地复杂地形的降水预报效果很好,LBGM-EPS在降水目标的整体相似度表现上优于BGM-EPS,且从扰动总能量随预报时间的演变中能看出LBGM较BGM扰动总能量更大,更能代表预报误差的增长,突出LBGM方法在对流尺度集合预报中表示强对流能力的优势;(3)与传统TS评分等检验方法相比,MODE法更能反映降水预报的空间位置信息,在卷积半径和降水阈值相同情况下,基于LBGM方法的集合平均预报识别降水对象的效果更佳。

INTERMITTENCY AND SCALING IN TURBULENT CONVECTION

Both the velocity and temperature measurements taken in turbulent Rayleigh-B'enard convection experiments have been analyzed. It is found that both the velocity and temperature fluctuations are intermittent and can be well-described by the She-Leveque hierarchical structure. A positive correlation between the vertical velocity and the temperature differences is found both at the center, near the sidewall and near the bottom of the convection cell, supporting that buoyancy is significant in the Bolgiano regime. Moreover, the intermittent nature of the temperature fluctuations in the Bolgiano regime can be attributted to the variations in the temperature dissipation rate. However, the relations between the velocity and temperature structure functions and their correlations implied by the Bolgiano-Obukhov scaling are not supported by experimental measurements.

Parametric resonances of convection belt system

Based on the Coriolis acceleration and the Lagrangian strain formula, a gen- eralized equation for the transverse vibration system of convection belts is derived using Newton＇s second law. The method of multiple scales is directly applied to the govern- ing equations, and an approximate solution of the primary parameter resonance of the system is obtained. The detuning parameter, cross-section area, elastic and viscoelastic parameters, and axial moving speed have a significant influences on the amplitudes of steady-state response and their existence boundaries. Some new dynamical phenomena are revealed.

Model Uncertainty Representation for a Convection-Allowing Ensemble Prediction System Based on CNOP-P

Formulating model uncertainties for a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system(CAEPS)is a much more challenging problem compared to well-utilized approaches in synoptic weather forecasting.A new approach is proposed and tested through assuming that the model uncertainty should reasonably describe the fast nonlinear error growth of the convection-allowing model,due to the fast developing character and strong nonlinearity of convective events.The Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameters(CNOP-P)is applied in this study.Also,an ensemble approach is adopted to solve the CNOP-P problem.By using five locally developed strong convective events that occurred in pre-rainy season of South China,the most sensitive parameters were detected based on CNOP-P,which resulted in the maximum variations in precipitation.A formulation of model uncertainty is designed by adding stochastic perturbations into these sensitive parameters.Through comparison ensemble experiments by using all the 13 heavy rainfall cases that occurred in the flood season of South China in 2017,the advantages of the CNOP-P-based method are examined and verified by comparing with the well-utilized stochastically perturbed physics tendencies(SPPT)scheme.The results indicate that the CNOP-P-based method has potential in improving the under-dispersive problem of the current CAEPS.