The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a lo...The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional ＂yield impact of meteorological factor （YIMF）＂ or ＂yield impact of weather factor＂ to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change （YICC）, which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields （PUAY） of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.展开更多
In order to explore the method and index of potato fine drought forecast in central Inner Mongolia,based on the data of potato yield and precipitation in Wuchuan County of Hohhot City,Guyang County of Baotou City,and ...In order to explore the method and index of potato fine drought forecast in central Inner Mongolia,based on the data of potato yield and precipitation in Wuchuan County of Hohhot City,Guyang County of Baotou City,and Chayou Middle Banner of Ulan Qab City from 1979 to 2013,the relationship between precipitation anomaly percentage and meteorological yield during potato growth period in central Inner Mongolia was analyzed by regression analysis.According to the precipitation anomaly percentage meteorological drought index,the light drought,medium drought and heavy drought indexes of the seedling stage and flowering stage in the above-mentioned areas were obtained as follows:-5%--25%,-25%--40%,and<-40%,respectively.The results show that the models are more accurate in determining the yield reduction caused by drought,and can well predict the occurrence of drought.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40231006 the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences under Grant No. 2006CB400503the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Science under Grant No. KZCX- SW-218.
文摘The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional ＂yield impact of meteorological factor （YIMF）＂ or ＂yield impact of weather factor＂ to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change （YICC）, which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields （PUAY） of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.
基金Supported by Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia,China(2018MS03003)。
文摘In order to explore the method and index of potato fine drought forecast in central Inner Mongolia,based on the data of potato yield and precipitation in Wuchuan County of Hohhot City,Guyang County of Baotou City,and Chayou Middle Banner of Ulan Qab City from 1979 to 2013,the relationship between precipitation anomaly percentage and meteorological yield during potato growth period in central Inner Mongolia was analyzed by regression analysis.According to the precipitation anomaly percentage meteorological drought index,the light drought,medium drought and heavy drought indexes of the seedling stage and flowering stage in the above-mentioned areas were obtained as follows:-5%--25%,-25%--40%,and<-40%,respectively.The results show that the models are more accurate in determining the yield reduction caused by drought,and can well predict the occurrence of drought.
