Better use of experience from other reservoirs for accurate production forecasting by learn-to-learn method

To assess whether a development strategy will be profitable enough,production forecasting is a crucial and difficult step in the process.The development history of other reservoirs in the same class tends to be studied to make predictions accurate.However,the permeability field,well patterns,and development regime must all be similar for two reservoirs to be considered in the same class.This results in very few available experiences from other reservoirs even though there is a lot of historical information on numerous reservoirs because it is difficult to find such similar reservoirs.This paper proposes a learn-to-learn method,which can better utilize a vast amount of historical data from various reservoirs.Intuitively,the proposed method first learns how to learn samples before directly learning rules in samples.Technically,by utilizing gradients from networks with independent parameters and copied structure in each class of reservoirs,the proposed network obtains the optimal shared initial parameters which are regarded as transferable information across different classes.Based on that,the network is able to predict future production indices for the target reservoir by only training with very limited samples collected from reservoirs in the same class.Two cases further demonstrate its superiority in accuracy to other widely-used network methods.

Generalized load graphical forecasting method based on modal decomposition

In a“low-carbon”context,the power load is affected by the coupling of multiple factors,which gradually evolves from the traditional“pure load”to the generalized load with the dual characteristics of“load+power supply.”Traditional time-series forecasting methods are no longer suitable owing to the complexity and uncertainty associated with generalized loads.From the perspective of image processing,this study proposes a graphical short-term prediction method for generalized loads based on modal decomposition.First,the datasets are normalized and feature-filtered by comparing the results of Xtreme gradient boosting,gradient boosted decision tree,and random forest algorithms.Subsequently,the generalized load data are decomposed into three sets of modalities by modal decomposition,and red,green,and blue(RGB)images are generated using them as the pixel values of the R,G,and B channels.The generated images are diversified,and an optimized DenseNet neural network was used for training and prediction.Finally,the base load,wind power,and photovoltaic power generation data are selected,and the characteristic curves of the generalized load scenarios under different permeabilities of wind power and photovoltaic power generation are obtained using the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise algorithm.Based on the proposed graphical forecasting method,the feasibility of the generalized load graphical forecasting method is verified by comparing it with the traditional time-series forecasting method.

Introduction to the Special Issue on Hybrid Intelligent Methods for Forecasting in Resources and Energy Field

Precise resources and energy forecasting are important to facilitate the decision-making process in order to achieve higher efficiency and reliability in energy system planning,maintenance,operation,security,and so on.In the past decades,many resources and energy forecasting models have been continuously proposed to increase the forecasting accuracy,especially intelligence models(e.g.,artificial neural networks,support vector regression,evolutionary computation models,etc.).Meanwhile,due to the great development of optimization methods(e.g.,quadratic programming method,differential empirical mode method,evolutionary algorithms,etc.),many novel hybrid methods combined with the above-mentioned intelligent-optimization-based methods have also been proposed to achieve satisfactory forecasting accuracy levels.It is worthwhile to explore the tendency and development of intelligent-optimization-based hybrid methodologies and to enrich their practical performances,particularly for resources and energy forecasting.

A comparison study on structure-function relationship of polysaccharides obtained from sea buckthorn berries using different methods:antioxidant and bile acid-binding capacity

In this study,the structural characters,antioxidant activities and bile acid-binding ability of sea buckthorn polysaccharides(HRPs)obtained by the commonly used hot water(HRP-W),pressurized hot water(HRP-H),ultrasonic(HRP-U),acid(HRP-C)and alkali(HRP-A)assisted extraction methods were investigated.The results demonstrated that extraction methods had significant effects on extraction yield,monosaccharide composition,molecular weight,particle size,triple-helical structure,and surface morphology of HRPs except for the major linkage bands.Thermogravimetric analysis showed that HRP-U with filamentous reticular microstructure exhibited better thermal stability.The HRP-A with the lowest molecular weight and highest arabinose content possessed the best antioxidant activities.Moreover,the rheological analysis indicated that HRPs with higher galacturonic acid content and molecular weight showed higher viscosity and stronger crosslinking network(HRP-C,HRP-W and HRP-U),which exhibited stronger bile acid binding capacity.The present findings provide scientific evidence in the preparation technology of sea buckthorn polysaccharides with good antioxidant and bile acid binding capacity which are related to the structure affected by the extraction methods.

Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics

Since the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex terrain areas,there is a deficiency of relevant research,operational techniques,and experience.This made providing meteorological services for this event particularly challenging.The China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre,achieved breakthroughs in research on short-and medium-term deterministic and ensemble numerical predictions.Several key technologies crucial for precise winter weather services during the Winter Olympics were developed.A comprehensive framework,known as the Operational System for High-Precision Weather Forecasting for the Winter Olympics,was established.Some of these advancements represent the highest level of capabilities currently available in China.The meteorological service provided to the Beijing 2022 Games also exceeded previous Winter Olympic Games in both variety and quality.This included achievements such as the“100-meter level,minute level”downscaled spatiotemporal resolution and forecasts spanning 1 to 15 days.Around 30 new technologies and over 60 kinds of products that align with the requirements of the Winter Olympics Organizing Committee were developed,and many of these techniques have since been integrated into the CMA’s operational national forecasting systems.These accomplishments were facilitated by a dedicated weather forecasting and research initiative,in conjunction with the preexisting real-time operational forecasting systems of the CMA.This program represents one of the five subprograms of the WMO’s high-impact weather forecasting demonstration project(SMART2022),and continues to play an important role in their Regional Association(RA)II Research Development Project(Hangzhou RDP).Therefore,the research accomplishments and meteorological service experiences from this program will be carried forward into forthcoming highimpact weather forecasting activities.This article provides an overview and assessment of this program and the operational national forecasting systems.

Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM_(2.5)Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.

Hybrid Strategy of Partitioned and Monolithic Methods for Solving Strongly Coupled Analysis of Inverse and Direct Piezoelectric and Circuit Coupling

The inverse and direct piezoelectric and circuit coupling are widely observed in advanced electro-mechanical systems such as piezoelectric energy harvesters.Existing strongly coupled analysis methods based on direct numerical modeling for this phenomenon can be classified into partitioned or monolithic formulations.Each formulation has its advantages and disadvantages,and the choice depends on the characteristics of each coupled problem.This study proposes a new option:a coupled analysis strategy that combines the best features of the existing formulations,namely,the hybrid partitioned-monolithic method.The analysis of inverse piezoelectricity and the monolithic analysis of direct piezoelectric and circuit interaction are strongly coupled using a partitioned iterative hierarchical algorithm.In a typical benchmark problem of a piezoelectric energy harvester,this research compares the results from the proposed method to those from the conventional strongly coupled partitioned iterative method,discussing the accuracy,stability,and computational cost.The proposed hybrid concept is effective for coupled multi-physics problems,including various coupling conditions.

Comparison among the UECM Model, and the Composite Model in Forecasting Malaysian Imports

For more than a century, forecasting models have been crucial in a variety of fields. Models can offer the most accurate forecasting outcomes if error terms are normally distributed. Finding a good statistical model for time series predicting imports in Malaysia is the main target of this study. The decision made during this study mostly addresses the unrestricted error correction model (UECM), and composite model (Combined regression—ARIMA). The imports of Malaysia from the first quarter of 1991 to the third quarter of 2022 are employed in this study’s quarterly time series data. The forecasting outcomes of the current study demonstrated that the composite model offered more probabilistic data, which improved forecasting the volume of Malaysia’s imports. The composite model, and the UECM model in this study are linear models based on responses to Malaysia’s imports. Future studies might compare the performance of linear and nonlinear models in forecasting.

Enhancing Deep Learning Soil Moisture Forecasting Models by Integrating Physics-based Models

Accurate soil moisture(SM)prediction is critical for understanding hydrological processes.Physics-based(PB)models exhibit large uncertainties in SM predictions arising from uncertain parameterizations and insufficient representation of land-surface processes.In addition to PB models,deep learning(DL)models have been widely used in SM predictions recently.However,few pure DL models have notably high success rates due to lacking physical information.Thus,we developed hybrid models to effectively integrate the outputs of PB models into DL models to improve SM predictions.To this end,we first developed a hybrid model based on the attention mechanism to take advantage of PB models at each forecast time scale(attention model).We further built an ensemble model that combined the advantages of different hybrid schemes(ensemble model).We utilized SM forecasts from the Global Forecast System to enhance the convolutional long short-term memory(ConvLSTM)model for 1–16 days of SM predictions.The performances of the proposed hybrid models were investigated and compared with two existing hybrid models.The results showed that the attention model could leverage benefits of PB models and achieved the best predictability of drought events among the different hybrid models.Moreover,the ensemble model performed best among all hybrid models at all forecast time scales and different soil conditions.It is highlighted that the ensemble model outperformed the pure DL model over 79.5%of in situ stations for 16-day predictions.These findings suggest that our proposed hybrid models can adequately exploit the benefits of PB model outputs to aid DL models in making SM predictions.

A Deep Learning Approach for Forecasting Thunderstorm Gusts in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region

Thunderstorm gusts are a common form of severe convective weather in the warm season in North China,and it is of great importance to correctly forecast them.At present,the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts is mainly based on traditional subjective methods,which fails to achieve high-resolution and high-frequency gridded forecasts based on multiple observation sources.In this paper,we propose a deep learning method called Thunderstorm Gusts TransU-net(TGTransUnet)to forecast thunderstorm gusts in North China based on multi-source gridded product data from the Institute of Urban Meteorology(IUM)with a lead time of 1 to 6 h.To determine the specific range of thunderstorm gusts,we combine three meteorological variables:radar reflectivity factor,lightning location,and 1-h maximum instantaneous wind speed from automatic weather stations(AWSs),and obtain a reasonable ground truth of thunderstorm gusts.Then,we transform the forecasting problem into an image-to-image problem in deep learning under the TG-TransUnet architecture,which is based on convolutional neural networks and a transformer.The analysis and forecast data of the enriched multi-source gridded comprehensive forecasting system for the period 2021–23 are then used as training,validation,and testing datasets.Finally,the performance of TG-TransUnet is compared with other methods.The results show that TG-TransUnet has the best prediction results at 1–6 h.The IUM is currently using this model to support the forecasting of thunderstorm gusts in North China.

Stability Analysis and Performance Evaluation of Additive Mixed-Precision Runge-Kutta Methods

Additive Runge-Kutta methods designed for preserving highly accurate solutions in mixed-precision computation were previously proposed and analyzed.These specially designed methods use reduced precision for the implicit computations and full precision for the explicit computations.In this work,we analyze the stability properties of these methods and their sensitivity to the low-precision rounding errors,and demonstrate their performance in terms of accuracy and efficiency.We develop codes in FORTRAN and Julia to solve nonlinear systems of ODEs and PDEs using the mixed-precision additive Runge-Kutta(MP-ARK)methods.The convergence,accuracy,and runtime of these methods are explored.We show that for a given level of accuracy,suitably chosen MP-ARK methods may provide significant reductions in runtime.

CALTM:A Context-Aware Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting Model

Time series data plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems.Traffic flow forecasting represents a precise estimation of future traffic flow within a specific region and time interval.Existing approaches,including sequence periodic,regression,and deep learning models,have shown promising results in short-term series forecasting.However,forecasting scenarios specifically focused on holiday traffic flow present unique challenges,such as distinct traffic patterns during vacations and the increased demand for long-term forecastings.Consequently,the effectiveness of existing methods diminishes in such scenarios.Therefore,we propose a novel longterm forecasting model based on scene matching and embedding fusion representation to forecast long-term holiday traffic flow.Our model comprises three components:the similar scene matching module,responsible for extracting Similar Scene Features;the long-short term representation fusion module,which integrates scenario embeddings;and a simple fully connected layer at the head for making the final forecasting.Experimental results on real datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms other methods,particularly in medium and long-term forecasting scenarios.

A Review on Sources,Extractions and Analysis Methods of a Sustainable Biomaterial:Tannins

Condensed and hydrolysable tannins are non-toxic natural polyphenols that are a commercial commodity industrialized for tanning hides to obtain leather and for a growing number of other industrial applications mainly to substitute petroleum-based products.They are a definite class of sustainable materials of the forestry industry.They have been in operation for hundreds of years to manufacture leather and now for a growing number of applications in a variety of other industries,such as wood adhesives,metal coating,pharmaceutical/medical applications and several others.This review presents the main sources,either already or potentially commercial of this forestry by-materials,their industrial and laboratory extraction systems,their systems of analysis with their advantages and drawbacks,be these methods so simple to even appear primitive but nonetheless of proven effectiveness,or very modern and instrumental.It constitutes a basic but essential summary of what is necessary to know of these sustainable materials.In doing so,the review highlights some of the main challenges that remain to be addressed to deliver the quality and economics of tannin supply necessary to fulfill the industrial production requirements for some materials-based uses.

High-Order Decoupled and Bound Preserving Local Discontinuous Galerkin Methods for a Class of Chemotaxis Models

In this paper,we explore bound preserving and high-order accurate local discontinuous Galerkin(LDG)schemes to solve a class of chemotaxis models,including the classical Keller-Segel(KS)model and two other density-dependent problems.We use the convex splitting method,the variant energy quadratization method,and the scalar auxiliary variable method coupled with the LDG method to construct first-order temporal accurate schemes based on the gradient flow structure of the models.These semi-implicit schemes are decoupled,energy stable,and can be extended to high accuracy schemes using the semi-implicit spectral deferred correction method.Many bound preserving DG discretizations are only worked on explicit time integration methods and are difficult to get high-order accuracy.To overcome these difficulties,we use the Lagrange multipliers to enforce the implicit or semi-implicit LDG schemes to satisfy the bound constraints at each time step.This bound preserving limiter results in the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker condition,which can be solved by an efficient active set semi-smooth Newton method.Various numerical experiments illustrate the high-order accuracy and the effect of bound preserving.

Review of Collocation Methods and Applications in Solving Science and Engineering Problems

The collocation method is a widely used numerical method for science and engineering problems governed by partial differential equations.This paper provides a comprehensive review of collocation methods and their applications,focused on elasticity,heat conduction,electromagnetic field analysis,and fluid dynamics.The merits of the collocation method can be attributed to the need for element mesh,simple implementation,high computational efficiency,and ease in handling irregular domain problems since the collocation method is a type of node-based numerical method.Beginning with the fundamental principles of the collocation method,the discretization process in the continuous domain is elucidated,and how the collocation method approximation solutions for solving differential equations are explained.Delving into the historical development of the collocation methods,their earliest applications and key milestones are traced,thereby demonstrating their evolution within the realm of numerical computation.The mathematical foundations of collocation methods,encompassing the selection of interpolation functions,definition of weighting functions,and derivation of integration rules,are examined in detail,emphasizing their significance in comprehending the method’s effectiveness and stability.At last,the practical application of the collocation methods in engineering contexts is emphasized,including heat conduction simulations,electromagnetic coupled field analysis,and fluid dynamics simulations.These specific case studies can underscore collocation method’s broad applicability and effectiveness in addressing complex engineering challenges.In conclusion,this paper puts forward the future development trend of the collocation method through rigorous analysis and discussion,thereby facilitating further advancements in research and practical applications within these fields.

Weather-Driven Solar Power Forecasting Using D-Informer:Enhancing Predictions with Climate Variables

Precise forecasting of solar power is crucial for the development of sustainable energy systems.Contemporary forecasting approaches often fail to adequately consider the crucial role of weather factors in photovoltaic(PV)power generation and encounter issues such as gradient explosion or disappearance when dealing with extensive time-series data.To overcome these challenges,this research presents a cutting-edge,multi-stage forecasting method called D-Informer.This method skillfully merges the differential transformation algorithm with the Informer model,leveraging a detailed array of meteorological variables and historical PV power generation records.The D-Informer model exhibits remarkable superiority over competing models across multiple performance metrics,achieving on average a 67.64%reduction in mean squared error(MSE),a 49.58%decrease in mean absolute error(MAE),and a 43.43%reduction in root mean square error(RMSE).Moreover,it attained an R2 value as high as 0.9917 during the winter season,highlighting its precision and dependability.This significant advancement can be primarily attributed to the incorporation of a multi-head self-attention mechanism,which greatly enhances the model’s ability to identify complex interactions among diverse input variables,and the inclusion of weather variables,enriching the model’s input data and strengthening its predictive accuracy in time series analysis.Additionally,the experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Investigating Periodic Dependencies to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasting

With a further increase in energy flexibility for customers,short-term load forecasting is essential to provide benchmarks for economic dispatch and real-time alerts in power grids.The electrical load series exhibit periodic patterns and share high associations with metrological data.However,current studies have merely focused on point-wise models and failed to sufficiently investigate the periodic patterns of load series,which hinders the further improvement of short-term load forecasting accuracy.Therefore,this paper improved Autoformer to extract the periodic patterns of load series and learn a representative feature from deep decomposition and reconstruction.In addition,a novel multi-factor attention mechanism was proposed to handle multi-source metrological and numerical weather prediction data and thus correct the forecasted electrical load.The paper also compared the proposed model with various competitive models.As the experimental results reveal,the proposed model outperforms the benchmark models and maintains stability on various types of load consumers.

An Evidence-Based CoCoSo Framework with Double Hierarchy Linguistic Data for Viable Selection of Hydrogen Storage Methods

Hydrogen is the new age alternative energy source to combat energy demand and climate change.Storage of hydrogen is vital for a nation’s growth.Works of literature provide different methods for storing the produced hydrogen,and the rational selection of a viable method is crucial for promoting sustainability and green practices.Typically,hydrogen storage is associated with diverse sustainable and circular economy(SCE)criteria.As a result,the authors consider the situation a multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)problem.Studies infer that previous models for hydrogen storage method(HSM)selection(i)do not consider preferences in the natural language form;(ii)weights of experts are not methodically determined;(iii)hesitation of experts during criteria weight assessment is not effectively explored;and(iv)three-stage solution of a suitable selection of HSM is unexplored.Driven by these gaps,in this paper,authors put forward a new integrated framework,which considers double hierarchy linguistic information for rating,criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation(CRITIC)for expert weight calculation,evidence-based Bayesian method for criteria weight estimation,and combined compromise solution(CoCoSo)for ranking HSMs.The applicability of the developed framework is testified by using a case example of HSM selection in India.Sensitivity and comparative analysis reveal the merits and limitations of the developed framework.

A Novel Hybrid Ensemble Learning Approach for Enhancing Accuracy and Sustainability in Wind Power Forecasting

Accurate wind power forecasting is critical for system integration and stability as renewable energy reliance grows.Traditional approaches frequently struggle with complex data and non-linear connections. This article presentsa novel approach for hybrid ensemble learning that is based on rigorous requirements engineering concepts.The approach finds significant parameters influencing forecasting accuracy by evaluating real-time Modern-EraRetrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2) data from several European Wind farms usingin-depth stakeholder research and requirements elicitation. Ensemble learning is used to develop a robust model,while a temporal convolutional network handles time-series complexities and data gaps. The ensemble-temporalneural network is enhanced by providing different input parameters including training layers, hidden and dropoutlayers along with activation and loss functions. The proposed framework is further analyzed by comparing stateof-the-art forecasting models in terms of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE),respectively. The energy efficiency performance indicators showed that the proposed model demonstrates errorreduction percentages of approximately 16.67%, 28.57%, and 81.92% for MAE, and 38.46%, 17.65%, and 90.78%for RMSE for MERRAWind farms 1, 2, and 3, respectively, compared to other existingmethods. These quantitativeresults show the effectiveness of our proposed model with MAE values ranging from 0.0010 to 0.0156 and RMSEvalues ranging from 0.0014 to 0.0174. This work highlights the effectiveness of requirements engineering in windpower forecasting, leading to enhanced forecast accuracy and grid stability, ultimately paving the way for moresustainable energy solutions.

Bound-Preserving Discontinuous Galerkin Methods with Modified Patankar Time Integrations for Chemical Reacting Flows

In this paper,we develop bound-preserving discontinuous Galerkin(DG)methods for chemical reactive flows.There are several difficulties in constructing suitable numerical schemes.First of all,the density and internal energy are positive,and the mass fraction of each species is between 0 and 1.Second,due to the rapid reaction rate,the system may contain stiff sources,and the strong-stability-preserving explicit Runge-Kutta method may result in limited time-step sizes.To obtain physically relevant numerical approximations,we apply the bound-preserving technique to the DG methods.Though traditional positivity-preserving techniques can successfully yield positive density,internal energy,and mass fractions,they may not enforce the upper bound 1 of the mass fractions.To solve this problem,we need to(i)make sure the numerical fluxes in the equations of the mass fractions are consistent with that in the equation of the density;(ii)choose conservative time integrations,such that the summation of the mass fractions is preserved.With the above two conditions,the positive mass fractions have summation 1,and then,they are all between 0 and 1.For time discretization,we apply the modified Runge-Kutta/multi-step Patankar methods,which are explicit for the flux while implicit for the source.Such methods can handle stiff sources with relatively large time steps,preserve the positivity of the target variables,and keep the summation of the mass fractions to be 1.Finally,it is not straightforward to combine the bound-preserving DG methods and the Patankar time integrations.The positivity-preserving technique for DG methods requires positive numerical approximations at the cell interfaces,while Patankar methods can keep the positivity of the pre-selected point values of the target variables.To match the degree of freedom,we use polynomials on rectangular meshes for problems in two space dimensions.To evolve in time,we first read the polynomials at the Gaussian points.Then,suitable slope limiters can be applied to enforce the positivity of the solutions at those points,which can be preserved by the Patankar methods,leading to positive updated numerical cell averages.In addition,we use another slope limiter to get positive solutions used for the bound-preserving technique for the flux.Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the good performance of the proposed schemes.