Effects of Minimum Wage Hikes on the Formalization of Employment

Despite the intention of minimum wage policy to maintain the living standards of low-income groups in the formal sector, this paper has found that the actual result of this policy produces the ＂big push＂ impact on China＇s economy under certain conditions, i.e. it is conducive to achieving the equilibrium of high wage, high consumption and formalization. The result shows that the elasticity of income growth from raising the minimum wage standard is greater for formal sector employees than for informal sector employees and is characterized by a U-shaped pattern in terms of quantiles. Thus, minimum wage hikes have widened wage gaps between and within sectors. Rising minimum wage standards greatly stimulate consumption with each 10% increase expected to bring about an additional urban household consumption of about 1.167 billion yuan in the surveyed four provinces. With local minimum wage hikes, the formal sector of wholesale and retail, hotel and catering services expands and the informal sector contracts, while the real estate sector experiences a ＂reverse formalization＂ trend. Based on the ＂big push theory＂, this paper concludes that against the backdrop of extensive, frequent and substantial minimum wage hikes, demand and sector TFP growth are the major causes of sector heterogeneity.

Estimating the Relative Level of Minimum Wage in China

It is generally believed in existing literature that China＇s minimum wage is too low and must be raised substantially. Such a view is highly misleading given the inconsistent statistical standards for minimum and average wages. In order to ensure comparability, this paper has adjusted the statistical scope for minimum and average wages respectively. If employees of urban private and self-employed businesses are included in calculating the average wage, the minimum-to-average wage ratio will increase by about 0.06; if the minimum wage standards of various localities include personal contributions to social insurance and the housing fund, the minimum-to-average wage ratio will increase by 0.008; if overtime pay is deducted from the average wage, the minimum-to-average wage ratio will further increase by around O. 06.In addition, if the median wage is used in place of the average wage, the minimum-to-average wage ratio will increase by at least 0.08. After these adjustments, China＇s minimum-to-average wage ratio for 2013 will increase from 0.28 to 0.49, which is within the range of between 0.40 and 0.60 that is recognized internationally as reasonable. Our analysis suggests that as far as the immediate interests of workers are concerned, it is more imperative to unify the statistical approaches for minimum and average wages in China than to raise the minimum wage standard. In order to achieve the expected effect, simply raising the minimum wage alone is not enough. What is also necessary is to enhance supervision and inspection on compliance by firms with the minimum wage policy, particularly the overtime pay regulations. An alternative is to replace monthly minimum wage with hourly minimum wage.

Analyzing the Impacts of Minimum Wage Standards on Reducing the Working Poor in China

During the past decades, the transformation of the labor market has significantly impacted on workers＇ wage structures and their employment in China. Along with the widening wage gaps and the growing income inequalities, the size of non-standard jobs expanded rapidly in China＇s urban labor market. As a result of this, the concept of working poor has become increasingly applicable to social and labor market realities in China, Based on the household survey data and by using quantitative analysis, this paper attempts to examine the interaction between the compulsory minimum wage standards and the working poor in the period of China＇s economic transition. The results show that for those whose monthly wages higher than the compulsory minimum wage standards were less likely to work poor and that workers with wages lower than the minimum wage floor were vulnerable to working poor, which supported the expectation that the implementation of compulsory minimum wages would help to reduce the risk of being a member among the working poor in China＇s urban labor market.

Minimum Wage Standard in China

On July 1st,at least six Chinese provinces and cities would raise the minimum wages from today.In 2010,each province and city in China has begun to increase the lowest monthly salary for employers.

The Determinants of China's Minimum Wage Rates

We use a highly disaggregated panel of macro data and minimum wages at the county level to investigate the processes behind minimum wage adjustments in China.Relying on random effects models,spatial econometrics techniques,and multilevel analyses,we document that a comparatively small number of economic variables-including the local price level and GDP per capita-are important determinants of minimum wage rates.Interactions between adjacent counties and counties of the same administrative type,and centralized mechanisms,particularly at the provincial level,also play an important role in explaining the variance in minimum wage rates across counties.Finally,we show that China's provinces are the key players for setting minimum wage rates and that,when they do so,they are not uniform in the way they weigh different economic variables.

Minimum Wages,Cost-Price Pass-Through and Real Welfare Effect of Households

The minimum wage policy should take into account production costs of enterprises and welfare benefits of families.This paper describes the pass-through process of the minimum wage costs in the enterprise sector and the household sector by building a theoretical model,investigates the impact of the minimum wage adjustment on urban household consumption utility and its price pass-through mechanism from the perspective of living costs based on several sets of databases,such as household survey,supermarket prices and industrial enterprises for the first time,and further estimates the net welfare changes including income compensation and consumption utility loss.The findings of the study are as below:(1)The price transfer behavior of enterprises is the main cause of the loss of household consumption utility.The average wage level and labor costs of enterprises rise with the increase of minimum wages.Both the cost-price pass-through elasticity estimated based on the theoretical model and the minimum wage price elasticity coefficient obtained by empirical estimation show that the price transfer behavior of enterprises leads to the rise of final consumer prices;(2)With a 10% increase in minimum wages,the overall household living costs increase by 2.47%-6.76%,and the economic living costs increase by about 122-334 yuan per quarter,among which the living costs are most affected in terms of food,shoes and clothing;(3)Under the combined effect of income compensation and consumption utility loss,the bottom 20% of households and middle 60% of households will get 658 yuan and 469-556 yuan per quarter,respectively.The findings of this paper are conducive to improving the supporting minimum wage policy by taking a number of measures simultaneously,so as to provide a path reference for promoting the realization of Chinese modernization and expanding domestic demand for common prosperity for all.

Minimum Wage Regulation in China and Its Applications to Migrant Workers in the Urban Labor Market

Using data at micro and city levels, the present paper explores the policy evolution of the minimum wage system in China, and examines its coverage for migrant workers. The analysis indicates that minimum wage policy has been substantially improved in terms of both coverage and the level of the minimum wage standard, but that the current policy tool that relies on the monthly wage rate is not effective. Because migrant workers tend to work more hours, use of an hourly wage rate is more appropriate than a monthly wage rate.

Employment and Working Hour Effects of Minimum Wage Increase:Evidence from China

Using a difference-in-differences model, the present paper provides empirical evidence of minimum wage effects on employment and working hours in China. The results show that male employment is not affected by a minimum wage increase, although men ＂s working hours do increase. In contrast, female employment is more likely to be negatively affected by a minimum wage increase, while their working hours remain unchanged. This may lead to women being in a more disadvantaged position in the workforee, and adopting a monthly minimum wage may induce firms to extend men＇s working hours. Therefore, to better protect disadvantaged workers, we suggest that minimum wage regulation should focus on the target group of less-educated women, and that a unified minimum hourly wage needs to be set for both full-time and part-time workers. Meanwhile, the importance of human capital accumulation shouM be addressed in alleviating the negative effects of minimum wage increases.

Employment Effects of Minimum Wage Regulation and Cross Effect of the Employment Contracts Law

Non-linear programming analysis suggests that employment effects of minimum wage regulation are the result not only of the regulation itself but also of the external regulatory environment. At a certain level, the regulatory environment intensifies the effect on employment of minimum wage regulation. Empirical studies based on survey data from 439 enterprises in Guangdong and Fujian show that minimum wage rises had a greater impact on the employment of rural migrant workers in 2008 than in 2007, although no significant change was observed among workers who were permanent urban residents. Further analysis shows that the greater impact on migrant workers derives mainly from the strengthened regulatory environment brought about by the Employment Contracts Law. The permanent urban workforce has not been similarly affected because their interests have been given priority under the dual employment system. This reminds us that the employment effects of the Employment Contracts Law may be realized indirectly through other regulatory measures, including strengthened minimum wage regulation.

What Drives Chinese Firms'Export Sophistication?A Perspective from the Rise of Minimum Wages

This paper re-examines the driving factors behind the upgrading of China s export sophistication.Based on county-level minimum wages and firm-level export data for 2000-2013,this paper finds that the labor cost shocks caused by rising minimum wages have a significant positive impact on Chinese firms'export sophistication.Channel tests show that the positive effect of rising minimum wages on firms'export sophistication derives from the exit of less sophisticated products and the reallocation of the relative share of surviving products,rather than introducing new highly sophisticated products.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that rising minimum wages have a greater impact on export sophistication for low-wage firms,domestic firms,and labor-intensive firms.This paper has implications for developing countries regarding the transition from a low-cost labor trade model to a sophistication-driven trade model.

Indonesia’s Cheap Wages Regime:The Political Economy of Minimum Wages Policy under Jokowi Presidency

Indonesia’s new wage policy mechanism made a new history since Joko Widodo(Jokowi)became President.The first minimum wages policy in Indonesia was implemented in 1969 in which the determination comes from society^monthly necessities through a discussion involving labor,employer,and state,it is known that the determination is no longer using aforementioned variables but it is rather based on a market-standard formula.This paper exploring the logic political-economic of wage policies implementation based on neoliberalism in the first presidency of Jokowi,which has implications for affirming cheap wages policies.This research uses a qualitative method by comparing two regions with different economic bases,namely Bekasi as the largest industrial area in Southeast Asia and Yog-yakarta as the province with the highest national economy inequality and the cheapest national minimum wage representation.The findings of this research show that this new wage formulation is emerged from the ideology of corporatism that takes place in every power transfer process and has the implication of reinforcing wage inequality that occurs in the local context in Indonesia.Politically,this regulation eliminates the democratic mechanism in the form of tripartite through a survey of monthly necessities which is carried out by labor,government and employer every year and has divided the strength of trade unions in fighting for the determination of decent wages.

Estimating the effect of minimum wage on firm profitability in China

Using the firm-level panel datasets and hand-collected data on county level minimum wage,this paper estimates the effect of minimum wage on firm profitability.As firms may take time to adjust in response to changes in minimum wage,this paper estimates a dynamic panel model with lagged minimum wage.To capture the heterogeneous effect of minimum wage on profitability,this paper further estimates quantile regression dynamic panel model.The estimation results suggest that the effect on firm profitability of minimum wage in the current year is negative across the whole conditional distribution of profitability and it exhibits an inverted-U shape across conditional quantiles.The effect on profitability of lagged minimum wage is positive at the 5th,10th,15th quantiles,negative at the 90th and 95th quantiles,and not significant at other quantiles.Turning to the overall effect on profitability of minimum wage,we find that minimum wage exerts significantly negative effect on profitability at the 5th quantile and quantiles higher than 40th and the absolute value of the effect of minimum wage increases with these quantiles.For other quantiles,the overall effect of minimum wage on profitability is negligible.

Will Freezing the Minimum Wage Help?

Plagued by the recent global financial turmoil,some Chinese enterprises,particu-larly labor-intensive small and medium-sized ones,are in difficulty,and this

最低工资上调如何影响会计稳健性?

最低工资制度是政府管制劳动力市场、保护劳动者权益的重要手段,会对经济活动产生广泛而深远的影响。利用2008—2020年沪深A股上市公司和各城市最低工资数据,从会计稳健性视角考察最低工资上调对企业会计信息披露的影响。研究发现:最低工资上调显著提高了企业的会计稳健性,且该结论在经过一系列稳健性测试后仍然成立。作用机制检验结果表明,最低工资上调主要通过优化人力资源质量和降低企业风险承担水平促进了会计稳健性的提升。异质性分析显示,当企业劳动密集特征较强、平均工资较低、所处地区劳动力市场竞争激烈以及财务状况不佳时,最低工资上调对会计稳健性的提升作用更加显著。经济后果检验表明,在最低工资上调的环境下,企业可通过提高会计稳健性获得更多的银行贷款。

最低工资标准上升会促进上市公司金融化吗?

最低工资标准作为政府干预劳动力市场的重要手段,对保障低收入者收入和生活水平具有重要意义。本文从虚拟经济的视角理解最低工资标准制度在微观层面的传导机制,构建了最低工资标准与上市公司金融化的分析框架。研究发现:地区最低工资标准水平越高,上市公司的金融化水平越高。在经过工具变量法、GMM估计、Heckman两阶段模型等内生性测试之后,上述结论依然成立;在民营企业、劳动密集度高、成本转嫁能力弱、地区金融市场环境发达的样本中,最低工资标准对企业金融化行为的促进作用更强。本文拓展了在中国经济转型背景下“劳动与金融”领域的研究框架,对于全面认识最低工资标准政策的实施效果有着重要的意义。

最低工资如何影响企业污染物排放

现有对最低工资影响的研究主要关注其经济影响,忽视了其社会影响。本文分析了最低工资对企业污染物排放的影响。研究发现,提高最低工资显著降低了企业二氧化硫的排放。机制分析显示,提高最低工资并没有减少企业总产值,也没有使企业因劳动力成本竞争劣势而忽视环境治理,而是促使企业用设备代替劳动力从而使工业煤炭使用减少。这表明最低工资主要通过改变要素投入结构从源头上减少了企业二氧化硫的排放。本文的研究有利于更全面地理解最低工资的影响,对最低工资的制定有重要借鉴意义。

最低工资调整对区域创新影响的实证研究

基于2005—2020年省级面板数据,实证考察了最低工资对区域创新的影响及其作用机制。考虑到最低工资与创新之间可能存在互为因果的关系,用滞后一期的最低工资作为工具变量来解决这一问题。实证结果发现,最低工资促进了区域创新,其影响机制是要素替代效应和人力资本积累效应。稳健性分析表明,最低工资与区域创新之间确实存在正向因果关系。而异质性分析则表明,最低工资对区域创新的影响存在明显的区域差异,这一影响在东部地区最为显著,西部地区次之,最弱的是中部地区。政府应该加大教育投资,提高劳动力质量,进一步优化教育和人力资本结构,通过相关政策激励企业根据自身实际情况开展在职培训,提高员工技能水平和人力资本积累,破除影响劳动力流动的障碍,促进劳动力在不同行业和地区间的流动,加快不同知识、思想和观念的沟通、碰撞与交流,提高不同技能劳动力的互补性,从而激励创新。

负担还是红利:最低工资政策如何影响城商行信贷风险

基于2006—2021年中国124家城商行数据,采用处理效应模型,实证检验地方政府上调省内最低工资标准对城商行信贷风险的影响。结果表明,尽管红利效应本身大于负担效应,但由于城商行资产端的对公贷款多、零售贷款少,负担效应的总体影响大于红利效应,因而最低工资政策整体上表现为加剧城商行信贷风险。宏观层面上,经济政策不确定性的上升,会加剧最低工资政策对城商行的冲击;微观层面上,优化零售转型,增加资产端的零售贷款配置比例,有助于城商行抵御最低工资政策的冲击。进一步研究发现,地方政府上调省内最低工资标准的同时,配合性地采取严监管、降税费、稳增长政策,抑或提高最低工资调标的独立性,均有助于抑制上述政策对城商行信贷风险造成的冲击。建议城商行积极推进零售转型,以应对未来可能面临的冲击,同时建议地方政府提高最低工资调标的独立性,并进行合理的政策搭配。

最低工资标准提升对女性育儿时间的影响研究

当前我国经济面临着较为复杂的外部发展环境和内部多重挑战,这使我国低收入家庭尤其女性家庭成员存在较大的收入不确定性,这些变化将会对女性的工作(有酬劳动)和育儿(照料子女)的选择产生深刻影响。尽管已有研究广泛探讨了女性所面临的工作-育儿冲突问题,但现实生活中我国女性在二者之间究竟会作何选择并可能引致何种后果则少有文献涉及。文章借助最低工资政策的实施,构建理论模型刻画女性在面临增收机会情境下育儿时间的选择机制,以期加深理解低收入女性在工作和育儿之间的权衡难题。文章还利用子女的未来健康状况变化进一步考察女性育儿时间决策的后果,为上述问题的分析提供补充证据。在此基础上,采用2004—2015年中国健康与营养调查数据和同期各区县的最低工资标准进行系统的实证检验。结果显示最低工资标准提升对低收入女性育儿时间具有显著负向影响,该结论在经过一系列内生性分析和稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明最低工资标准提升主要通过提高女性参与劳动的概率和工作时间产生作用,这一结论为低收入女性用工作替代育儿的事实提供了直接证据。异质性分析表明:处于生育平稳期、子女年龄为4~6岁或父辈健康状况较好的女性因具有更高的育儿弹性,育儿时间受到的负向影响更强,同时技能水平更低或工作搜寻难度更小的女性育儿时间同样也更容易受到最低工资政策的不利影响。进一步研究发现最低工资标准提升对短期内子女的身心健康具有显著负向影响,且均可归因于女性育儿时间的减少,这也为文章中的核心结论提供了补充性证据。据此建议政府部门推动建立父亲育儿假制度,加强对托儿机构的普遍监管和支持,鼓励企业为女性群体提供灵活的工作时间和工作模式,聚焦低技能、低学历女性群体的职业技能培训和教育提升,增强其就业竞争力,同时加强最低工资政策的执行力度,确保小时工资标准得到遵守,防止企业延长工作时间。这些措施有助于弥补女性育儿时间减少导致的不利后果,构建合理的生育支持政策体系。

最低工资制度的上海经验:理论渊源与实践探索

我国已批准1928年《确定最低工资办法公约》(第26号),但我国的最低工资制度与国际劳工组织提倡的“体面的生活工资”有所不同。上海自1993年开始实行最低工资制度,与其他省市在制度设计上有一定的差异,始终保持着“显著的一致性”。作为协调劳动关系三方委员会中的劳方代表,上海市总工会在参与最低工资标准调整过程中,对接国际劳工标准,结合地方工作实践,采用定期调查、量化分析、情景模拟等方式开展决策咨询研究,探索建立与上海经济发展相适应的最低工资标准调整机制。