Is Model Parameter Error Related to a Significant Spring Predictability Barrier for El Nio events? Results from a Theoretical Model

Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant ＂spring predictability barrier＂ （SPB） for El Nio events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air-sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caused a very small prediction error and consequently failed to yield a significant SPB. Subsequently, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） approach was used to study the effect of the optimal mode （CNOP-P） of the uncertainties of the two parameters on the SPB and to demonstrate that the CNOP-P errors neither presented a unified season-dependent evolution for different El Nio events nor caused a large prediction error, and therefore did not cause a significant SPB. The parameter errors played only a trivial role in yielding a significant SPB. To further validate this conclusion, the authors investigated the effect of the optimal combined mode （i.e. CNOP error） of initial and model errors on SPB. The results illustrated that the CNOP errors tended to have a significant season-dependent evolution, with the largest error growth rate in the spring, and yielded a large prediction error, inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors, rather than model parameter errors, may be the dominant source of uncertainties that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events. These results indicate that the ability to forecast ENSO could be greatly increased by improving the initialization of the forecast model.

Extraction of temperature dependences of small-signal model parameters in SiGe HBT HICUM model

In this work, temperature dependences of small-signal model parameters in the SiGe HBT HICUM model are presented. Electrical elements in the small-signal equivalent circuit are first extracted at each temperature, then the temperature dependences are determined by the series of extracted temperature coefficients, based on the established temperature for- mulas for corresponding model parameters. The proposed method is validated by a 1x 0.2 x 16 μm2 SiGe HBT over a wide temperature range （from 218 K to 473 K）, and good matching is obtained between the extracted and modeled resuits. Therefore, we believe that the proposed extraction flow of model parameter temperature dependence is reliable for characterizing the transistor performance and guiding the circuit design over a wide temperature range.

Model Parameter Transfer for Gear Fault Diagnosis under Varying Working Conditions

Gear fault diagnosis technologies have received rapid development and been effectively implemented in many engineering applications.However,the various working conditions would degrade the diagnostic performance and make gear fault diagnosis(GFD)more and more challenging.In this paper,a novel model parameter transfer(NMPT)is proposed to boost the performance of GFD under varying working conditions.Based on the previous transfer strategy that controls empirical risk of source domain,this method further integrates the superiorities of multi-task learning with the idea of transfer learning(TL)to acquire transferable knowledge by minimizing the discrepancies of separating hyperplanes between one specific working condition(target domain)and another(source domain),and then transferring both commonality and specialty parameters over tasks to make use of source domain samples to assist target GFD task when sufficient labeled samples from target domain are unavailable.For NMPT implementation,insufficient target domain features and abundant source domain features with supervised information are fed into NMPT model to train a robust classifier for target GFD task.Related experiments prove that NMPT is expected to be a valuable technology to boost practical GFD performance under various working conditions.The proposed methods provides a transfer learning-based framework to handle the problem of insufficient training samples in target task caused by variable operation conditions.

Model Optimization of Litter Size and Genetic Analyses of Model Parameters in Sows

According to two properties of the life cycle and to fluctuation with parities, four mathemati- cal models, the Poisson cycle model, the cubic polyno- mial model, the modified quadratic polynomial model- I artd the modified quadratic polynomial model-H, were used to fit the records of litter size in Jiangquhai sows. From the viewpoint of statistics and biological significance, the modified quadratic polynomial mod- el-I was found to be the optimum model. A single traitanimal model and DFREML procedures were further used to estimate the heritability values of optimum model parameters. The results show that the heritabili- ty values for the coefficients A and B and the herita- bility value for the acme of the model pure quadric curve are larger than the heritability value for the litter size. This suggests that selection for model parameters may be more effective than direct selection for litter size.

Seismological model parameters for northeastern and its surrounding region of India

A point source seismological model is used in this study to model the available strong motion accelerograms recorded by 17 events and to calculate three seismological model parameters, the source, path, and quality factor. Due to the paucity of recorded events, this is the first time these model parameters have been obtained for the northeastern and its surrounding region of India. The quality factors of the horizontal and vertical components of recorded events with corresponding standard deviations are QH（f） = 188.55f0.94, σ-1 value （25, 0.025） and Qv（f） = 169.76f0.93,σs value （20, 0.03）, respectively. The source parameter stress drop values （△σ-） vary within 124 180 bars for the subduction region and 80 169 bars for the active region. The Kappa factors for the horizontal and vertical components of recorded events on the soft rock site are 0.06 and 0.05, respectively. These seismological model parameters obtained in this study will be useful for future work deriving a ground motion attenuation relation based on a spectral model. Finally, these results are useful for seismic hazard assessment of a region having sparsely recorded events.

A 3D attention U-Net network and its application in geological model parameterization

To solve the problems of convolutional neural network–principal component analysis(CNN-PCA)in fine description and generalization of complex reservoir geological features,a 3D attention U-Net network was proposed not using a trained C3D video motion analysis model to extract the style of a 3D model,and applied to complement the details of geologic model lost in the dimension reduction of PCA method in this study.The 3D attention U-Net network was applied to a complex river channel sandstone reservoir to test its effects.The results show that compared with CNN-PCA method,the 3D attention U-Net network could better complement the details of geological model lost in the PCA dimension reduction,better reflect the fluid flow features in the original geologic model,and improve history matching results.

A new approach for separating mixed model parameters:application to simultaneous inversion of earthquake source parameters

A method for simultaneous determination of mixed model parameters,which have different physical dimensions or different responses to data,is presented.Mixed parameter estimation from observed data within a single model space shows instabilities and trade-offs of the solutions. We separate the model space into N-subspaces based on their physical properties or computational convenience and solve the N-subspaces systems by damped least-squares and singular-value decomposition. Since the condition number of each subsystem is smaller than that of the single global system,the approach can greatly increase the stability of the inversion. We also introduce different damping factors into the subsystems to reduce the tradeoffs between the different parameters. The damping factors depend on the conditioning of the subsystems and may be adequately chosen in a range from 0.1 % to 10 % of the largest singular value. We illustrate the method with an example of simultaneous determination of source history,source geometry,and hypocentral location from regional seismograms,although it is applicable to any geophysical inversion.

A New Model Parameter Identification Technique for Magnetorheological Dampers

Magnetorheological （MR） Dampers offer rapid variation in damping properties, making them ideal in semi-active control of structures. They potentially offer highly reliable operation and can be viewed as fail safe, in that in the worst case, they become passive dampers. Perfect understanding of the response is necessary when implementing these in operation in conjunction with a control mechanism. There are many models used to predict the behavior of MR dampers. One of these is the Bouc-Wen model. It is extremely popular as it is numerically tractable, very versatile and can exhibit a wide range of hysteretic behavior. It is necessary to first identify the characteristic parameters of the model before response prediction is possible. However, characteristic parameters identification of the Bouc-Wen model needs an experimental base, which has its own limitations. The extraction of these characteristic parameters by trial and error and optimization techniques leaves significant difference between observed and simulated results. This paper deals with a new approach to extract characteristic parameters for the Bouc-Wen model.

Implication of community-level ecophysiological parameterization to modelling ecosystem productivity:a case study across nine contrasting forest sites in eastern China

Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods.

Convolution Neural Network-based Load Model Parameter Selection Considering Short-term Voltage Stability

The recently proposed ambient signal-based load modeling approach offers an important and effective idea to study the time-varying and distributed characteristics of power loads.Meanwhile,it also brings new problems.Since the load model parameters of power loads can be obtained in real-time for each load bus,the numerous identified parameters make parameter application difficult.In order to obtain the parameters suitable for off-line applications,load model parameter selection(LMPS)is first introduced in this paper.Meanwhile,the convolution neural network(CNN)is adopted to achieve the selection purpose from the perspective of short-term voltage stability.To begin with,the field phasor measurement unit(PMU)data from China Southern Power Grid are obtained for load model parameter identification,and the identification results of different substations during different times indicate the necessity of LMPS.Meanwhile,the simulation case of Guangdong Power Grid shows the process of LMPS,and the results from the CNNbased LMPS confirm its effectiveness.

A comparative study of different online model parameters identification methods for lithium-ion battery

Precise states estimation for the lithium-ion battery is one of the fundamental tasks in the battery management system(BMS),where building an accurate battery model is the first step in model-based estimation algorithms.To date,although the comparative studies on different battery models have been performed intensively,little attention is paid to the comparison among different online parameters identification methods regarding model accuracy,robustness ability,adaptability to the different battery operating conditions and computation cost.In this paper,based on the Thevenin model,the three most widely used online parameters identification methods,including extended Kalman filter(EKF),particle swarm optimization(PSO),and recursive least square(RLS),are evaluated comprehensively under static and dynamic tests.It is worth noting that,although the built model’s terminal voltage may well follow a measured curve,these identified model parameters may significantly out of reasonable range,which means that the error between measured and predicted terminal voltage cannot be seen as a gist to determine which model is the most accurate.To evaluate model accuracy more rigorously,battery state-of-charge(SOC)is further estimated based on identified model parameters under static and dynamic tests.The SOC prediction results show that EKF and RLS algorithms are more suitable to be used for online model parameters identification under static and dynamic tests,respectively.Moreover,the random offset is added into originally measured data to verify the robustness ability of different methods,whose results indicate EKF and RLS have more satisfactory ability against imprecisely sampled data under static and dynamic tests,respectively.Considering model accuracy,robustness ability,adaptability to the different battery operating conditions and computation cost simultaneously,EKF is recommended to be adopted to establish battery model in real application among these three most widely used methods.

Assessing model parameters sensitivity and uncertainty of streamflow,sediment,and nutrient transport using SWAT

The objectives of this study were to(1)simulate streamflow,total sediment(TS),total phosphorus(TP),and total nitrogen(TN)loads;and(2)use the sequential uncertainty fitting(SUFI-2)algorithm to quantify the model parameter sensitivity and uncertainty in simulating streamflow,TS,TP,and TN loads using Soil and Water Assessment(SWAT)model in Big Sunflower River watershed(BSRW).The model was calibrated from 1996 to 2003 and validated from 2004 to 2010 for daily streamflow,TS load,TP load,and TN load.The model performed well simulating daily streamflow(R^2=0.58-0.75,NSE=0.47-0.75),TS load(R^2=0.50-0.72,NSE=0.47-0.66),and TP load(R^2=0.79-0.82,NSE=0.73-0.77),and the model performance was slightly low for TN load(R^2=0.13-0.31,NSE=
0.09 to 0.07).This study determined that parameter uncertainty was greatest for simulating TN load(p-factor=0.48,r-factor=1.25)and that parameter uncertainty was lowest for simulating streamflow(p-factor=0.70-0.78,r-factor=1.18-1.19).Output uncertainty was much greater during peak streamflow and peak pollutant loads compared to periods of low streamflow and low pollutant loads.The sensitivity analyses found that streamflow was most sensitive to Manning’s roughness coefficient for the main channel(CH_N2),TS load was most sensitive the peak rate adjustment factor for sediment routing in the tributary channels(ADJ_PKR),TP load was most sensitive to the Phosphorus enrichment ratio for loading with sediments(ERORGP),and TN load was most sensitive to the denitrification exponential rate coefficient(CDN).Uncertainty was found to be much greater during peak streamflow and peak pollutant loads compared to periods of low streamflow and low pollutant loads.

Parameter sensitivity study of the biogeochemical model in the China coastal seas

In order to develop a coupled basin scale model of ocean circulation and biogeochemical cycling,we present a biogeochemical model including 12 components to study the ecosystem in the China coastal seas（CCS）.The formulation of phytoplankton mortality and zooplankton growth are modified according to biological characteristics of CCS.The four sensitivity biological parameters,zooplankton assimilation efficiency rate（ZooAE_N）,zooplankton basal metabolism rate（ZooBM）,maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton（μ_（20）） and maximum chlorophyll to carbon ratio（Chl2C_m） are obtained in sensitivity experiments for the phytoplankton,and experiments about the parameter μ_（20＇）,half-saturation for phytoplankton NO_3 uptake（K_（NO_3）） and remineralization rate of small detritusN（SDeRRN） are conducted.The results demonstrate that the biogeochemical model is quite sensitive to the zooplankton grazing parameter when it ranges from 0.1 to 1.2 d^（-1）.The K_（NO_3） and SDeRRN also play an important role in determining the nitrogen cycle within certain ranges.The sensitive interval of KNO_3 is from 0.1 to 1.5（mmol/m^3）^（-1）,and interval of SEdRRN is from 0.01 and 0.1 d^（-1）.The observational data from September 1998 to July 2000 obtained at SEATS station are used to validate the performance of biological model after parameters optimization.The results show that the modified model has a good capacity to reveal the biological process features,and the sensitivity analysis can save computational resources greatly during the model simulation.

Parameter Selection and Performance Analysis of Mobile Terminal Models Based on Unity3D

Mobile platform is now widely seen as a promising multimedia service with a favorable user group and market prospect. To study the influence of mobile terminal models on the quality of scene roaming, a parameter setting platform of mobile terminal models is established to select the parameter selection and performance index on different mobile platforms in this paper. This test platform is established based on model optimality principle, analyzing the performance curve of mobile terminals in different scene models and then deducing the external parameter of model establishment. Simulation results prove that the established test platform is able to analyze the parameter and performance matching list of a mobile terminal model.

Fifth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems (5th-CASAM-N): II. Paradigm Application to a Bernoulli Model Comprising Uncertain Parameters

This work presents the application of the recently developed “Fifth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems (5th-CASAM-N)” to a simplified Bernoulli model. The 5th-CASAM-N builds upon and incorporates all of the lower-order (i.e., the first-, second-, third-, and fourth-order) adjoint sensitivities analysis methodologies. The Bernoulli model comprises a nonlinear model response, uncertain model parameters, uncertain model domain boundaries and uncertain model boundary conditions, admitting closed-form explicit expressions for the response sensitivities of all orders. Illustrating the specific mechanisms and advantages of applying the 5th-CASAM-N for the computation of the response sensitivities with respect to the uncertain parameters and boundaries reveals that the 5th-CASAM-N provides a fundamental step towards overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF MULTI-CONSTITUENT WATER QUALITY MODEL FOR THE LIANGXI RIVER BY MARQUARDT METHOD

A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Marquardt Method (i. e.,Dampled Least Square Method) while initial values inoptimization are produced by Monte-Carlo Method. The Potential ofthe method as a parameter estimation aid is demonstrated for theapplication to the Liangyi Rver, JiangSu Province of China and by aspecial comparison with Gauss Method.

Bayesian model averaging(BMA)for nuclear data evaluation

To ensure agreement between theoretical calculations and experimental data,parameters to selected nuclear physics models are perturbed and fine-tuned in nuclear data evaluations.This approach assumes that the chosen set of models accurately represents the‘true’distribution of considered observables.Furthermore,the models are chosen globally,indicating their applicability across the entire energy range of interest.However,this approach overlooks uncertainties inherent in the models themselves.In this work,we propose that instead of selecting globally a winning model set and proceeding with it as if it was the‘true’model set,we,instead,take a weighted average over multiple models within a Bayesian model averaging(BMA)framework,each weighted by its posterior probability.The method involves executing a set of TALYS calculations by randomly varying multiple nuclear physics models and their parameters to yield a vector of calculated observables.Next,computed likelihood function values at each incident energy point were then combined with the prior distributions to obtain updated posterior distributions for selected cross sections and the elastic angular distributions.As the cross sections and elastic angular distributions were updated locally on a per-energy-point basis,the approach typically results in discontinuities or“kinks”in the cross section curves,and these were addressed using spline interpolation.The proposed BMA method was applied to the evaluation of proton-induced reactions on ^(58)Ni between 1 and 100 MeV.The results demonstrated a favorable comparison with experimental data as well as with the TENDL-2023 evaluation.

A modified lumped parameter model of distribution transformer winding

The modelling of the distribution transformer winding is the starting point and serves as important basis for the transformer characteristics analysis and the lightning pulse response prediction.A distributed parameters model can depict the winding characteristics accurately,but it requires complex calculations.Lumped parameter model requires less calculations,but its applicable frequency range is not wide.This paper studies the amplitude-frequency characteristics of the lightning wave,compares the transformer modelling methods and finally proposes a modified lumped parameter model,based on the above comparison.The proposed model minimizes the errors provoked by the lumped parameter approximation,and the hyperbolic functions of the distributed parameter model.By this modification it becomes possible to accurately describe the winding characteristics and rapidly obtain the node voltage response.The proposed model can provide theoretical and experimental support to lightning protection of the distribution transformer.

Parameter identifications for a rotor system based on its finite element model and with varying speeds

In order to achieve prediction for vibration of rotating machinery, an accurate finite element （FE） model and an efficient parameter identification method of the rotor system are required. In this research, a test rig is used as a prototype of a rotor system to validate a novel parameter identification technique based on an FE model. Rotor shaft vibration at varying operating speeds is measured and correlated with the FE results. Firstly, the theories of the FE modelling and identification technique are introduced. Then disk unbalance parameter, stiffness and damping coefficients of the bearing supports on the test rig are identified. The calculated responses of the FE model with identified parameters are studied in comparison with the experimental results.

Parameterizing sea surface temperature cooling induced by tropical cyclones using a multivariate linear regression model

Combining a linear regression and a temperature budget formula, a multivariate regression model is proposed to parameterize and estimate sea surface temperature（SST） cooling induced by tropical cyclones（TCs）. Three major dynamic and thermodynamic processes governing the TC-induced SST cooling（SSTC）, vertical mixing, upwelling and heat flux, are parameterized empirically using a combination of multiple atmospheric and oceanic variables：sea surface height（SSH）, wind speed, wind curl, TC translation speed and surface net heat flux. The regression model fits reasonably well with 10-year statistical observations/reanalysis data obtained from 100 selected TCs in the northwestern Pacific during 2001–2010, with an averaged fitting error of 0.07 and a mean absolute error of 0.72°C between diagnostic and observed SST cooling. The results reveal that the vertical mixing is overall the pre dominant process producing ocean SST cooling, accounting for 55% of the total cooling. The upwelling accounts for 18% of the total cooling and its maximum occurs near the TC center, associated with TC-induced Ekman pumping. The surface heat flux accounts for 26% of the total cooling, and its contribution increases towards the tropics and the continental shelf. The ocean thermal structures, represented by the SSH in the regression model,plays an important role in modulating the SST cooling pattern. The concept of the regression model can be applicable in TC weather prediction models to improve SST parameterization schemes.