COVID‑19 and tourism sector stock price in Spain:medium‑term relationship through dynamic regression models

The global pandemic,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),has significantly affected tourism,especially in Spain,as it was among the first countries to be affected by the pandemic and is among the world’s biggest tourist destinations.Stock market values are responding to the evolution of the pandemic,especially in the case of tourist companies.Therefore,being able to quantify this relationship allows us to predict the effect of the pandemic on shares in the tourism sector,thereby improving the response to the crisis by policymakers and investors.Accordingly,a dynamic regression model was developed to predict the behavior of shares in the Spanish tourism sector according to the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the medium term.It has been confirmed that both the number of deaths and cases are good predictors of abnormal stock prices in the tourism sector.

Cyber-physical Modeling Technique based Dynamic Aggregation of Wind Farm Considering LVRT Characteristic

With the increasing penetration of wind power,large-scale integrated wind turbine brings stability and security risks to the power grid.For the aggregated modeling of large wind farms,it is crucial to consider low voltage ride-through(LVRT)characteristics.However,in aggregation methods,the approximate neglect behavior is essential,which leads to inevitable errors in the aggregation process.Moreover,the lack of parameters in practice brings new challenges to the modeling of a wind farm.To address these issues,a novel cyber-physical modeling method is proposed.This method not only overcomes the aggregation problem under the black-box wind farm but also accurately realizes the aggregation error fitting according to the operation data.The simulation results reveal that the proposed method can accurately simulate the dynamic behaviors of the wind farm in various scenarios,whether in LVRT mode or normal mode.

A nonlinear wake model of a wind turbine considering the yaw wake steering

Duo to fluctuations in atmospheric turbulence and yaw control strategies,wind turbines are often in a yaw state.To predict the far wake velocity field of wind turbines quickly and accurately,a wake velocity model was derived based on the method of momentum conservation considering the wake steering of the wind turbine under yaw conditions.To consider the shear effect of the vertical incoming wind direction,a two-dimensional Gaussian distribution function was introduced to model the velocity loss at different axial positions in the far wake region based on the assumption of nonlinear wake expansion.This work also developed a“prediction-correction”method to solve the wake velocity field,and the accuracy of the model results was verified in wake experiments on the Garrad Hassan wind turbine.Moreover,a 33-kW two-blade horizontal axis wind turbine was simulated using this method,and the results were compared with the classical wake model under the same parameters and the computational fluid dynamics(CFD)simulation results.The results show that the nonlinear wake model well reflected the influence of incoming flow shear and yaw wake steering in the wake velocity field.Finally,computation of the wake flow for the Horns Rev offshore wind farm with 80 wind turbines showed an error within 8%compared to the experimental values.The established wake model is less computationally intensive than other methods,has a faster calculation speed,and can be used for engineering calculations of the wake velocity in the far wakefield of wind turbines.

Farm buildings and agri-food transitions in Southern France:Mapping dynamics using a stakeholder-based diagnosis

This study's goal is to present a dynamic portrait of the farm-buildings environment in Occitania,in Southern France,in order to better identify the transitions underway in agri-food chains.To this end,we undertook a ter-ritorial diagnosis based on actor statements,using 28 semi-structured interviews across Occitania.This diagnosis was enriched by graphic modelling,which enabled the spatialization of the dynamics described.We show that the process of standardisation of farm buildings prevails in the majority of the territories studied.This phenomenon has intensified in recent years with the development of vast photovoltaic-roofed sheds,accentuating the farm-land conversion and soil sealing.At the same time,in areas with strong environmental,landscape and heritage contexts,a'new adventure in farm buildings'(2022 survey)is taking shape.It is primarily driven by local short food chains,which rely on self-construction,repurposing and refurbishment,the sharing of tools and equipment,and which favour the use and reuse of local resources.This study shows that farm-buildings dynamics crystallise many challenges confronting the reterritorialisation of agriculture and food production.

A Study on the Role of Tourism in Enhancing Personal Mental Health in the Post-Epidemic Era

With the advent of the post-epidemic era,a great wave of tourism has been ushered in everywhere.The relationship between tourism and mental health has become a hot topic in society.This paper investigates the enhancement of people’s mental health after tourism through social survey.Using Hangzhou as the sample collection site,this paper conducted a study on the role of tourism in enhancing personal mental health through descriptive analysis,factor analysis and structural equation modeling,and further specifically analyzed the role of mediating variables.The results showed that:(1)The purpose of tourism is to relax and relieve stress,and the effectiveness of tourism is mainly reflected in the alleviation of emotional conditions;(2)Factor Analysis reduced the dimensionality of personal mental health indicators,and finally obtained four factors,among which the comprehensive behavioral ability and physiological manifestation had the best improvement effect after tourism;(3)The structural equation model shows that the enhancing effect of tourism on mental health originates from the factor of inner psychological characteristic,and this factor works through two paths:Inner Psychological Characteristic-Social Adaptability-Physiological Manifestations-Enhancement of Mental Health by Tourism,and Inner Psychological Characteristic-Comprehensive Behavioral Ability-Enhancement of Mental Health by Tourism;(4)Tourism has an enhancing effect on personal mental health,and the enhancing effect is most significant among the middle-aged and young people who are unmarried and do not have children yet.These results have been reasonably analyzed and explained,and relevant suggestions are put forward.

基于PSModel的海上风电场全电磁暂态建模与仿真

开发有效的风机电磁暂态模型是进行海上风电并网研究的基础。根据不同生产厂家所提供的直驱风机模型,提出了一种基于厂家黑盒模型的直驱风机电磁暂态建模方法。利用厂家所提供的模型测试数据解析风机的故障响应特性,推导了不同厂家在电压故障下有功和无功功率响应表达式,包括故障期间的穿越控制过程及不同过程间的暂态切换策略。提出了加权平均压降的风电场等值方法,采用自主研发的全电磁暂态仿真软件(power system model,PSModel)对我国广东某海上风电场进行全电磁暂态建模。根据稳态潮流及暂态特性结果验证了模型可通过系统测试,且有效实现了海上风电场的全电磁暂态建模,从而为该风场接入大电网后的安全稳定分析提供了研究基础。

Research on the Coupled and Coordinated Development of Tourism and Transport in Chengdu City

Based on a total of 16 indicators selected from the tourism and transport industries,an evaluation index system of the coupling and coordination development level of tourism and transport is constructed.The entropy value method and the coupling coordination degree model are used to conduct an empirical study on the development level and coupling coordination level of the transport and tourism industries in Chengdu City from 2011 to 2020.The results show that,on the whole,the coupling coordination degree of transport and tourism in Chengdu is poor and has been in a state of mild to moderate dysfunction.The development level of tourism lagged behind the development of transport from 2011 to 2012,and the two were in a state of mild dysfunction.However,from 2013 onwards,the development level of tourism was prioritized over the development level of transport.This shift caused the coupling coordination degree of the two industries to decline sharply to 0.23305 in 2013.The development level of the tourism industry increased again,reaching 0.34206 in 2019,which marked an improvement.Consequently,the coordination degree of the transport and tourism industries evolved from moderate dislocation to mild dislocation.Finally,the results of the empirical research are analyzed,and corresponding suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable growth of the transport and tourism industries in Chengdu City.These suggestions aim to improve the coupled and coordinated development level of the two industries.

Construction of Risk Assessment Application Model of Epidemic Disease in Large-scale Pig Farms

The application model of epidemic disease assessment technology for Web-based large-scale pig farm was expounded from the identification of epidemic disease risk factors, construction of risk assessment model and development of risk assessment system. The assessed pig farm uploaded the epidemic disease risk data information through on-line answering evaluating questionnaire to get the immediate evaluation report. The model could enhance the risk communication between pig farm veterinarian, manager and veterinary experts to help farm system understand and find disease risk factors, assess and report the potential high risk items of the pig farm in the three systems of engineering epidemic disease prevention technology, biological safety and immune monitoring, and promote the improvement and perfection of epidemic disease prevention and control measures.

The Evolution of Organic Carbon in Chinese Mollisol Under Different Farming Systems: Validation and Prediction by Using Century Model

Soil organic carbon （SOC） is an important indicator of soil degradation process. In this study, the long-term SOC evolution in Chinese mollisol farmland was simulated and predicted by validating, analyzing, processing and assorting concerning data, based on clarifying parameters of Century model need, combined with best use of recorded data of field management, observed data of long-term experiments, climate, soil, and biology, and achieved results from Hailun Agro-Ecological Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results were showed as follows： Before reclamation, SOC content was around 58.00 g kg^-1, SOC content dropped quickly in early years, and then decreased slowly after reclamation. SOC content was around 34.00 g kg^-1 with a yearly average rate of 8.91‰ decrease before long-term experiments was established. After a long-term experiment, SOC would change under different farming systems. Shift farming system changed as follows： By 20-year model simulation, SOC content decreased from 34.03 to 30.19 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 5.97‰; by 100-year model simulation, SOC content decreased to 24.31 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 3.36‰. Organic farming system changed as follows： By 20-year model simulation, SOC content decreased slowly from 34.03 to 33.39 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 0.95‰, 5‰ less than that of shift farming system; by 100-year model simulation, SOC content decreased to 32.21 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 0.55‰. ＂Petroleum＂ farming system changed as follows： By 20-year model simulation, SOC content decreased from 34.03 to 32.88 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 1.72‰, much more than that of organic farming system; by 100-year model simulation, SOC content decreased to 30.89 g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 0.96‰. Combined ＂petroleum＂-organic farming system changed as follows： By 20-year model simulation, SOC content was increased slightly; by 100-year model simulation, SOC content increased from 34.03 to 34.41g kg^-1, with a yearly average rate of 0.11‰. The above results provided an optimal way for maintaining SOC in Chinese mollisol farmland： To increase, as much as possible within agro-ecosystem, soil organic matter returns such as crop stubble, crop litter, crop straw or stalk, and manure, besides applying chemical nitrogen and phosphorous, which increased system productivity and maintained SOC content as well. Also, the results provided a valuable methodology both for a study of CO2 sequestration capacity and for a target fertility determination in Chinese mollisol.

Analysis of Social Integration Models of Tourism Labor Migrants——A Case Study of Jiuhua Mountain of Anhui Province, China

The grounded theory of qualitative methods was applied to researching the social integration of tourism la-bor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain of Anhui Province, China. The research was conducted based on the in-depth in-terviewing of 15 samples, open-consultation and the analysis of secondhand data. The integration models of tourism labor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain were formed through four processes including theoretic sampling, cod-ing-analysis, cross-tabulation and contextualization. The result shows that modes of production and life styles decide self-integration orientation of tourism labor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain. Cultural differences are fundamental dis-similarity between tourism labor migrants and natives. There are three kinds of integration models including rapid, free and gradually advancing integration. The differences among different types of migrants’ integration models are re-markable. Taking the working integration as the abscissa and taking the life integration as the coordinate, an "S" model of integration matrix appears in the gradually advancing integration of intermediate and high administers from the working to the life which should be paid special attention to.

Adaptation models of mountain glacier tourism to climate change: a case study of Mt. Yulong Snow scenic area

Mountain glaciers have an obvious location advantage and tourist market condition over polar and high latitude glaciers. Due to the enormous economic benefit and heritage value, some mountain glaciers will always receive higher attention from commercial media, government departments and mountain tourists in China and abroad. At present, more than 100 glaciers have been devel- oped successfully as famous tourist destinations all over the world. However, global climate change seriously affects mountain glaciers and its surrounding environment. According to the current accelerated retreat trend, natural and cultural landscapes of some glaciers will be weakened, even disappear in the future. Climate change will also inevitably affect mountain ecosystems, and tourism routes under ice and glacier experience activities in these ecosystems. Simultaneously, the disappearance of mountain glaciers will also lead to a clear reduction of tourism and local economic benefits. Based on these reasons, this paper took Mr. Yulong Snow scenic area as an example and analyzed the retreat trend of a typical glacier. We then put forward some scientific and rational response mechanisms and adaptation models based on climate change in order to help future sustainable development of mountain glacier tourism.

Attractive Model and Marketing Implications of Theme Shopping Tourism Destination

This paper discusses the definition and connotation of Theme Shopping Tourism(TST) destination,and reveals the attractive distance of TST destination based on the utility function derived from the supposed demand function.An attractive model is deduced.According to this attractive model,it is can be known that the attractive distance is related to the price difference of the theme commodities between TST destination and tourist origin place,the average expenditure of transport,the demand elasticity of price,the actual price of sightseeing spot,the critical price that a tourist will afford,the number of nights that a tourist stays on the TST destination and the price level of accommodation in the TST destination.The change mechanism of attractive distance of TST destinations is revealed in this paper,and implications on TST marketing are put forward.First,theme commodities should be luxuries.Second,lower price is the primary pulling factor of theme shopping tourism.Third,the route combining with sightseeing spots is beneficial to shopping tourism.At last,TST development is one way of rejuvenating the falling destinations.

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Rainfed Farming Systems: A Modeling Framework for Scaling-Out Climate Smart Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Improving agricultural water productivity, under rainfed or irrigated conditions, holds significant scope for addressing climate change vulnerability. It also offers adaptation capacity needs as well as water and food security in the southern African region. In this study, evidence for climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in rainfed agricultural systems is explored through modeling predictions of crop yield, soil moisture and excess water for potential harvesting. The study specifically presents the results of climate change impacts under rainfed conditions for maize, sorghum and sunflower using soil-water-crop model simulations, integrated based on daily inputs of rainfall and evapotranspiration disaggregated from GCM scenarios. The research targets a vast farming region dominated by heavy clay soils where rainfed agriculture is a dominant practice. The potential for improving soil water productivity and improved water harvesting have been explored as ways of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. This can be utilized to explore and design appropriate conservation agriculture and adaptation practices in similar agro-ecological environments, and create opportunities for outscaling for much wider areas. The results of this study can suggest the need for possible policy refinements towards reducing vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in rainfed farming systems.

Evaluation of Tourism Status in Sustainable Rural Development by Reynard Model (Case Study: Pa Ghaleh Village, Mamasani County, Iran)

The greatest service industry and income gainer throughout the world occupies a special role and position in developing geographical areas. This study attempts to use “Reynard” model to investigate the role of tourism and its effects on the development of rural settlements with emphasis on Pa Ggaleh Village, which is one of the environs in Mamasani, Iran. Due to its historical and religious attractions and natural and cultural landscapes, this village is highly significant and has the potential to become a tourism hub and attract tourists. The methodology applied in this research is cross-sectional. Tourism potentials of Pa Ghaleh village are identified and evaluated in this study. Geological maps, topographies and field data are used to evaluate the district attractions. Their tourism potentials are also evaluated and rated using Reynard model. According to the sub-criteria of rarity and historical geography, the research results indicate that scientific value has the highest rank. In other words, tourism places in Pa Ghaleh village include 72% of scientific value, 0.59% of added value and 0.57% of compound value.

Rural Tourism Development in China:Principles,Models and the Future

Rural tourism in China,has undergone a rapid development in the last three decades.It is an emerging and effective catalyst that promotes industrial restructuring,agricultural development and the upgrading of rural areas.However,there remains little understanding about the core issues of rural tourism in China:the exact connotation,the principles,the development models and the future directions.This review paper identifies the key issues based on literature analysis,national statistics and press reports to form a general picture of the past,the current and the future prospects of China's rural tourism.The paper firstly addresses the definition,content and principles of rural tourism,and then provides an overview and brief evaluation of the progress and the current development models in China.Finally,based on the analysis of the experiences and problems,the authors sum up with five pathways of the future development of China's rural tourism from the perspective of rural tourism resources,product,market and promotion.

Carrying capacity of water environment in public tourism resources based on matter-element model

When water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction is studied, the two action subjects of tourists and local residents should be discussed, and comprehensive consideration must be given to the influence of these two on water environment. On the basis of water resource carrying capacity and water quality carrying capacity, water environmental carrying capacity index of public resource tourist attraction was constructed, the model for the water environmental carrying capacity of public resource tourist attraction was established on the basis of matter-element model and analytical hierarchy process. By applying this method, water environmental carrying capacity situation of a certain public resource tourist attraction can be gained, moreover, situations about several aspects of water environmental carrying capacity can be evaluated.

An Analysis on Rural Tourism Development Model in Yi County of Huangshan City

The Yi County's rural tourism model has changed a lot,gradually transferring from the single model to the composite model,which integrates sightseeing,touring,entertainment,leisure,vocation,and shopping. This article mainly focuses on the rural tourism development model. Yi County is a typical case for others,which gives a new development model.

Exploitation Countermeasures of Farming Culture Tourism in the Dabie Mountains: Thinking on the Investigation of Hani Terrace Tourism Development in Yunan Province

Farming culture is the main part of Chinese outstanding traditional culture and also the important spiritual and cultural resources to construct the core values of the Chinese nation. In the new era, fully exploring and making full use of farming culture resources has important practical significance for the protection, inheritance and innovation of Chinese excellent traditional culture. The rapid development and successful brand shaping of Hani terrace tourism could provide experience for the exploration and utilization of farming culture tourism resources in other areas of China. Based on the analysis of development process of Hani terrace tourism as well as the successful experience of other regions for reference, ideas of developing farming culture tourism in the Dabie Mountains were proposed.

Construction of Agricultural Tourism Product Model Based on Experience Economy

Experience economy is a new economic development tendency after agricultural economy, industrial economy and service economy. Tourism consumption shows new characteristics in experience economy. Agricultural tourism product coincides with these characteristics, it is necessary to establish a model of agricultural tourism products based on experience economy. It is a model of wide range, strong personality and participation.

Empirical Study on the Benefit Increase of New Contract Farming 1+3+X Model

For a long time,the development model of traditional rice planting industry has been single,linear,and focusing on production first and then market.However,with the low price of rice,such problems as slow technological upgrading,meager profits,and unstable rice quality in the primary industry planting units and farmers have become increasingly prominent.The integration and development of the rural primary,secondary,and tertiary industries and industrial integration have the same root.They are integrated industrial development based on technological or model innovation,vertical and horizontal integration.Three agricultural leading companies(Nanjing Tianwei Agricultural Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing CHYKINGYOUNG Biological Technology Co.,Ltd.,and Jiangsu Jingshan Eco-organic Agriculture Co.,Ltd.)established an industrialization complex,and used their respective technical,operational,and market advantages to integrate and form a rice contract farming 1+3+X model.This model effectively integrates scattered rice planting,rice processing,and rice sales in Nanjing City of Jiangsu Province,and Chuzhou City of Anhui Province,and unifies planting regulations and supply of production materials,safeguards the supply of green and high-quality rice and realizes high quality and high price.In addition,it integrates farmers into the entire industrial chain of contract farming,summons up the production enthusiasm of farmers and greatly increases their income from planting production.