Modelling the dead fuel moisture content in a grassland of Ergun City,China

The dead fuel moisture content(DFMC)is the key driver leading to fire occurrence.Accurately estimating the DFMC could help identify locations facing fire risks,prioritise areas for fire monitoring,and facilitate timely deployment of fire-suppression resources.In this study,the DFMC and environmental variables,including air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,solar radiation,rainfall,atmospheric pressure,soil temperature,and soil humidity,were simultaneously measured in a grassland of Ergun City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China in 2021.We chose three regression models,i.e.,random forest(RF)model,extreme gradient boosting(XGB)model,and boosted regression tree(BRT)model,to model the seasonal DFMC according to the data collected.To ensure accuracy,we added time-lag variables of 3 d to the models.The results showed that the RF model had the best fitting effect with an R2value of 0.847 and a prediction accuracy with a mean absolute error score of 4.764%among the three models.The accuracies of the models in spring and autumn were higher than those in the other two seasons.In addition,different seasons had different key influencing factors,and the degree of influence of these factors on the DFMC changed with time lags.Moreover,time-lag variables within 44 h clearly improved the fitting effect and prediction accuracy,indicating that environmental conditions within approximately 48 h greatly influence the DFMC.This study highlights the importance of considering 48 h time-lagged variables when predicting the DFMC of grassland fuels and mapping grassland fire risks based on the DFMC to help locate high-priority areas for grassland fire monitoring and prevention.

Prediction model of moisture content of dead fine fuel in forest plantations on Maoer Mountain,Northeast China

Preventing and suppressing forest fires is one of the main tasks of forestry agencies to reduce resource loss and requires a thorough understanding of the importance of factors affecting their occurrence.This study was carried out in forest plantations on Maoer Mountain in order to develop models for predicting the moisture content of dead fine fuel using meteorological and soil variables.Models by Nelson(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)and Van Wagner and Pickett(Can For Service 33,1985)describing the equilibrium moisture content as a function of relative humidity and temperature were evaluated.A random forest and generalized additive models were built to select the most important meteorological variables affecting fuel moisture content.Nelson’s(Can J For Res 14:597-600,1984)model was accurate for Pinus koraiensis,Pinus sylvestris,Larix gmelinii and mixed Larix gmelinii—Ulmus propinqua fuels.The random forest model showed that temperature and relative humidity were the most important factors affecting fuel moisture content.The generalized additive regression model showed that temperature,relative humidity and rain were the main drivers affecting fuel moisture content.In addition to the combined effects of temperature,rainfall and relative humidity,solar radiation or wind speed were also significant on some sites.In P.koraiensis and P.sylvestris plantations,where soil parameters were measured,rain,soil moisture and temperature were the main factors of fuel moisture content.The accuracies of the random forest model and generalized additive model were similar,however,the random forest model was more accurate but underestimated the effect of rain on fuel moisture.

Feasibility of measuring moisture content of green sand by a low frequency multiprobe detector based on dielectric characteristics

Green sand is a mixture of silica sand,bentonite,water and coal powder,and other additives.Moisture content is an important index to characterize the properties of green sand.Based on the dielectric characteristics of green sand and transmission line theory,a method for rapidly measuring the moisture content of green sand by means of a low frequency multiprobe detector was proposed.A system was constructed,where six detectors with different arrangements and probes were designed.The experimental results showed that the voltage difference of transmission line increases with the increasing frequency before 29 MHz while decreases after 35 MHz.A voltage difference platform occurs in the range of 29-35 MHz,which is suitable for measuring the moisture content due to its insensitivity to frequency.The electric field intensity gradually decreases with the increase of the probe depth,and the intensity of central probe is always greater than that of the edge probe.When the distance of the probe away from the sand sample surface is 80 mm,the electric field intensity of the edge probe is found to be very weak.The optimal excitation frequency for measuring the moisture content of green sand is 29-33 MHz.The optimal detector is the one with one center probe and three edge probes,and their lengths are 80 mm and 60 mm,respectively.The distance between the center and edge probes is 25 mm,and the diameter of probes is 5 mm.Taking the voltage difference of transmission line,bentonite content,coal powder content and compactability as parameters of the input layer,and the moisture content as a parameter of the output layer,a three-layer BP artificial neural network model for predicting the moisture content of green sand was constructed according to the experimental results at 33 MHz.The prediction error of the model is not higher than 3.3% when the moisture content of green sand is within the range of 3wt.%-7wt.%.

A Novel Interacting Multiple-Model Method and Its Application to Moisture Content Prediction of ASP Flooding

In this paper,an interacting multiple-model(IMM)method based on datadriven identification model is proposed for the prediction of nonlinear dynamic systems.Firstly,two basic models are selected as combination components due to their proved effectiveness.One is Gaussian process(GP)model,which can provide the predictive variance of the predicted output and only has several optimizing parameters.The other is regularized extreme learning machine(RELM)model,which can improve the overfitting problem resulted by empirical risk minimization principle and enhances the overall generalization performance.Then both of the models are updated continually using meaningful new data selected by data selection methods.Furthermore,recursive methods are employed in the two models to reduce the computational burden caused by continuous renewal.Finally,the two models are combined in IMM algorithm to realize the hybrid prediction,which can avoid the error accumulation in the single-model prediction.In order to verify the performance,the proposed method is applied to the prediction of moisture content of alkali-surfactant-polymer(ASP)flooding.The simulation results show that the proposed model can match the process very well.And IMM algorithm can outperform its components and provide a nice improvement in accuracy and robustness.

Theoretical modeling of the effects of temperature and moisture content on the acoustic velocity of Pinus resinosa wood

To investigate the effects of temperature and moisture content(MC) on acoustic wave velocity(AWV)in wood,the relationships between wood temperature,MC,and AWV were theoretically analyzed.According to the theoretical propagation characteristics of the acoustic waves in the wood mixture and the differences in velocity among various media(including ice,water,pure wood or oven-dried wood),theoretical relationships of temperature,MC,and AWV were established,assuming that the samples in question were composed of a simple mixture of wood and water or of wood and ice.Using the theoretical model,the phase transition of AWV in green wood near the freezing point(as derived from previous experimental results) was plausibly described.By comparative analysis between theoretical and experimental models for American red pine(Pinus resinosa) samples,it was established that the theoretically predicted AWV values matched the experiment results when the temperature of the wood was below the freezing point of water,with an averageprediction error of 1.66%.The theoretically predicted AWV increased quickly in green wood as temperature decreased and changed suddenly near 0 °C,consistent with the experimental observations.The prediction error of the model was relatively large when the temperature of the wood was above the freezing point,probably due to an overestimation of the effect of the liquid water content on the acoustic velocity and the limited variables of the model.The high correlation between the predicted and measured acoustic velocity values in frozen wood samples revealed the mechanisms of temperature,MC,and water status and how these affected the wood(particularly its acoustic velocity below freezing point of water).This result also verified the reliability of a previous experimental model used to adjust for the effect of temperature during field testing of trees.

Distribution prediction of moisture content of dead fuel on the forest floor of Maoershan national forest, China using a LoRa wireless network

The moisture content of dead forest fuel is an important indicator of risk levels of forest fires and prediction of fire spread. Moisture distribution is important to determine wild fire rating. However, it is often difficult to predict moisture distribution because of a complex terrain, changeable environments and low cover of commercial communication signals inside the forest. This study proposes a moisture content prediction system composed of environmental data collected using a long range radio frequency band 433 MHz wireless sensor network and data processing for moisture prediction based on a BP (back-propagation) neural network. In the fall of 2019, twenty nodes for the collection of environmental data were placed in four forest stands of Maoershan National Forest for a month;7440 sets of data including temperature, humidity, wind speed and air pressure were obtained. Half the data were used as a training set, the other as a testing set for a BP neural network. The results show that the average absolute error between the predicted value and the real value of moisture content of fuels of Larix gmelini, Betula platyphylla, Juglans mandshurica, and Quercus mongolica stands was 0.94%, 0.21%, 0.86%, 0.97%, respectively. The prediction accuracy was relatively high. The proposed distributed moisture content prediction method has the advantages of wide coverage and good real-time performance;at the same time, it is not limited by commercial signals and so it is especially suitable for forest fire prediction in remote mountainous areas.

Effects of Moisture Content and Plasticity Index on Duncan-Chang Model Parameters of Hydraulic Fill Soft Soil

In order to explore the effects of moisture content and plasticity index on Duncan-Chang model parameters?K,n,?C?and?Rf,?we selected 8 groups of soft soil with water content of 69.1%?-?94.3% and plasticity index of 32.2?-?54.1 for triaxial unconsolidated undrained shear test. The results show that?Cuu,?K?and?n?values all showed a downward trend, and?Rf?variation was not obvious with the increase of moisture content. The variation rule of each parameter is not obvious with the increase of plasticity index. When moisture content is constant,?Cuu?and?n?values do not change much,?K?increases with the increase of plasticity index within the range of 70%?-?80% moisture content, and does not change much with the increase of plasticity index when moisture content is greater than 80%,?Rf?has no obvious rule.?When the plasticity index is constant,?Cuu,?Kand?n?decrease with the increase of moisture content,?Rf?has no obvious rule. The maximum value of?Cuu?is 20.18?kPa, the minimum is 3.72?kPa, and the maximum to minimum ratio is 5.42. The maximum value of?K?is 0.517, the minimum is 0.022, and the maximum to minimum ratio is 23.5. The maximum value of?n?is 1.198, the minimum is 0.150, and the maximum to minimum ratio is 7.99. The maximum value of?Rf?is 0.872, the minimum is 0.679, and the maximum to minimum ratio is 1.28.

Diurnal variation models for fine fuel moisture content in boreal forests in China

Studying diurnal variation in the moisture content of fine forest fuel(FFMC)is key to understanding forest fire prevention.This study established models for predicting the diurnal mean,maximum,and minimum FFMC in a boreal forest in China using the relationship between FFMC and meteorological variables.A spline interpolation function is proposed for describing diurnal variations in FFMC.After 1 day with a 1 h field measurement data testing,the results indicate that the accuracy of the sunny slope model was 100%and 84%when the absolute error was<3%and<10%,respectively,whereas the accuracy of the shady slope model was 72%and 76%when the absolute error was<3%and<10%,respectively.The results show that sunny slope and shady slope models can predict and describe diurnal variations in fine fuel moisture content,and provide a basis for forest fire danger prediction in boreal forest ecosystems in China.

Technical Research for Detector of Grain Moisture Content Based on Error Compensation

According to the existing method including testing the frequency and establishing the relationship between moisture content and frequency, a corresponding instrument was designed. In order to further improve the accuracy and rapidity of the system, a new approach to describe the relationship between the measurement error and the temperature was proposed. The error band could be obtained and divided into several parts（based on the range of temperature） to indicate the error value that should compensate the grain moisture content for the changes in temperature. By calculating the error band at the maximum and the minimum operating temperatures, as well as by determining the error compensation value from the error band based on the measurement moisture content, the final effective result was derived.

A Survey of Sediment Fineness and Moisture Content in the Soyang Lake Floodplain Using GPS Data

Soyang Lake is the largest lake in Republic of Korea bordering Chuncheon,Yanggu,and Inje in Gangwon Province.It is widely used as an environmental resource for hydropower,flood control,and water supply.Therefore,we conducted a survey of the floodplain of Soyang Lake to analyze the sediments in the area.We used global positioning system(GPS)data and aerial photography to monitor sediment deposits in the Soyang Lake floodplain.Data from three GPS units were compared to determine the accuracy of sampling location measurement.Sediment samples were collected at three sites:two in the eastern region of the floodplain and one in the western region.A total of eight samples were collected:Three samples were collected at 10 cm intervals to a depth of 30 cm from each site of the eastern sampling point,and two samples were collected at depths of 10 and 30 cm at the western sampling point.Samples were collected and analyzed for vertical and horizontal trends in particle size and moisture content.The sizes of the sediment samples ranged from coarse to very coarse sediments with a negative slope,which indicate eastward movement from the breach.The probability of a breach was indicated by the high water content at the eastern side of the floodplain,with the eastern sites showing a higher probability than the western sites.The results of this study indicate that analyses of grain fineness,moisture content,sediment deposits,and sediment removal rates can be used to understand and predict the direction of breach movement and sediment distribution in Soyang Lake.

Resistivity is used as a tool to evaluate the variability of soil water content

Resistivity is used to evaluate soil water content(SWC),which has the advantages of not causing soil disturbance and in low price.It is an effective way to assess the SWC variability.This paper aims to evaluate the variability of loess slope SWC through the change of resistivity.It provides a simple way for long term SWC monitoring to solve the expensive cost of deploying moisture sensors.In this context,geoelectric and environmental factors such as soil temperature and SWC were monitored for three years.The prediction model of apparent resistivity and SWC was calibrated.The post processing of geoelectric data was introduced.In addition,the SWC collected by Time-Domain Reflectometry(TDR)was used to verify the feasibility of electrical resistivity tomography(ERT)data.The SWC variability in the process of rainfall,the evolution of four seasons,and the alternation of drying and wetting were evaluated.The research results show that:i)the SWC monitored by ERT and TDR can reflect the response and hysteretic effect of water content at 0.5-3.0 m depth.ii)The moisture content monitored by ERT reflects that the soil is relatively wet in summer and autumn and dry in winter and spring.iii)From 2017 to 2020,the SWC increased in August,and the soil became dry in January.iv)Two areas with high SWC and three areas with low SWC on loess slope are reflected by resistivity.The outcome can provide the change information of SWC to a great extent without excavating boreholes.

Permittivity models for determination of moisture content in Hevea Rubber Latex

The commercial open-ended coaxial probe(Agilent 85070E)is the most commonly used sensor to determine the permittivity of wet materials.This paper extends the usability and applicability of the sensor to the estimation of moisture content in Hevea Rubber Latex.The dielectric constant and loss factor were measured using the commercial probe whilst the moisture contents were obtained using the standard oven drying method.Comparison results were obtained between the different dielectric models to predict moisture content in latex.Both the dielectric constant and the loss factor of rubber latex linearly increased with moisture content at all selected frequencies.Calibration equations were established to relate both the dielectric constant and the loss factor with moisture content.These equations were used to predict moisture content in Hevea latex from measured values of the dielectric constant and the loss factor.The lowest mean relative error between actual and predicted moisture contents was 0.02 at 1 GHz when using the Cole-Cole dielectric constant calibration equation.

Sauna Technique, Drying Kinetic Modeling and Effectiveness on Solar Drying Compared with Direct Drying in Drying Process of <i>Kappaphycus striatum</i>in Selakan Island Malaysia

A sauna drying technique—the solar drier was designed and imposed, constructed and tested for drying of seaweed. The seaweed moisture content was decreased around 50% in 2-day sauna. Kinetic curves of drying of seaweed were known to be used in this system. The non-linear regression procedure was used to fit three different drying models. The models were compared with experimental data of red seaweed being dried on the daily average of air temperature about 40℃. The fit quality of the models was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Bias Error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The highest values of R2 (0.99027), the lowest MBE (0.00044) and RMSE (0.03039) indicated that the Page model was the best mathematical model to describe the drying behavior of sauna dried seaweed. The percentage of the saved time using this technique was calculated at 57.9% on the average solar radiation of about 500 W/m2 and air flow rate of 0.056 kg/s.

Establishment of soil moisture model based on hyperspectral data and growth parameters of winter wheat

Large area of soil moisture status diagnosis based on plant canopy spectral data remains one of the hot spots of agricultural irrigation.However,the existing soil water prediction model constructed by the spectral parameters without considering the plant growth process will inevitably increase the prediction errors.This study carried out research on the correlations among spectral parameters of the canopy of winter wheat,crop growth process,and soil water content,and finally constructed the soil water content prediction model with the growth days parameter.The results showed that the plant water content of winter wheat tended to decrease during the whole growth period.The plant water content had the best correlations with the soil water content of the 0-50 cm soil layer.At different growth stages,even if the soil water content was the same,the plant water content and characteristic spectral reflectance were also different.Therefore,the crop growing days parameter was added to the model established by the relationships between characteristic spectral parameters and soil water content to increase the prediction accuracy.It is found that the determination coefficient(R^(2))of the models built during the whole growth period was greatly increased,ranging from 0.54 to 0.60.Then,the model built by OSAVI(Optimized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index)and Rg/Rr,two of the highest precision characteristic spectral parameters,were selected for model validation.The correlation between OSAVI and soil water content,Rg/Rr,and soil water content were still significant(p<0.05).The R^(2),MAE,and RMSE validation models were 0.53 and 0.58,3.19 and 2.97,4.76 and 4.41,respectively,which was accurate enough to be applied in a large-area field.Furthermore,the upper and lower irrigation limit of OSAVI and Rg/Rr were put forward.The research results could guide the agricultural production of winter wheat in northern China.

木材气干密度与基本密度关系模型比较

木材密度包括基本密度、气干密度等,在12%含水率条件下的气干密度(D12)较常用,因此有必要将木材气干密度换算为基本密度(Db)。目前利用木材气干密度计算基本密度的模型有Reyes、Chave、Simpson和Vieilledent模型等,然而这些模型预测结果不完全一致。利用中国林业科学研究院木材工业研究所(Research Institute of Wood Industry,Chinese Academy of Forestry,CRIWI)和法国农业国际合作研究发展中心(French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development,CIRAD)的木材D12和Db数据,首先基于CRIWI的木材密度数据建立D12与Db的关系模型,然后将CRIWI和CIRAD的D12数据分别代入Reyes模型、Chave模型、Simpson模型、Vieilledent模型和新建模型,获得每个树种木材Db的预测值,并根据Db预测值和实测值计算残差绝对值均值。不同模型残差绝对值均值比较结果表明:Reyes模型在利用CRIWI和CIRAD的木材密度数据时预测Db的准确性都比较高,适用性最广;Simpson模型、新建模型在D12高于1.0 g/cm3时预测Db的准确性降低。

基于Landsat8与Sentinel-1遥感图像融合的土壤含水率反演模型

针对当前运用单一光学卫星反演土壤含水率时易受到云的影响,单一SAR卫星反演土壤含水率时易受到地表粗糙度和植被影响的问题,以内蒙古河套灌区沙壕渠为研究区域,以4个深度的土壤含水率为研究对象,分别采用主成分分析(PCA)、施密特正交变换(GS)融合Landsat8和Sentinel-1图像以减少云、植被、土壤粗糙度的影响,并对融合后的图像质量进行评价,然后用融合图像的灰度构建1134种遥感指数,基于相关系数分析、变量投影重要性分析、灰色关联分析3种变量筛选方法与BP神经网络(BP)、极限学习机(ELM)、随机森林(RF)、支持向量机(SVM)4种机器学习算法的耦合模型反演沙壕渠土壤含水率。研究结果表明:经PCA、GS融合后的融合图像可同时保持Sentinel-1和Landsat8图像的优势,并成功定量反演土壤含水率。基于融合图像构建的三维指数普遍比二维指数对土壤含水率更敏感。在表层土壤含水率反演中,基于GS融合的VIP-ELM模型精度最高(决定系数R2=0.66,均方根误差(RMSE)为1.35%)。将GS融合的VIP-ELM模型应用于其他土壤深度含水率的反演后发现,20~40 cm反演精度最高(R2=0.79,RMSE为0.94%),其次是0~10 cm、40~60 cm、10~20 cm。该研究可为多源卫星图像融合反演土壤含水率提供参考。

基于FA-BP神经网络的生姜干燥含水率预测

为探索生姜的干燥特性,并实现生姜干燥的含水率预测,研究了不同干燥温度(50、55、60℃)、干燥风速(1.0、2.0、3.0m/s)、切片长度(30、35、40mm)对生姜干燥时间和干燥速率的影响。结合BP神经网络自适应能力、泛化能力、学习能力强和萤火虫算法(FA)参数少、寻优能力强、收敛速度快等特点,将干燥温度、干燥风速、切片长度和干燥时间作为输入层,隐藏层个数为10,输出层为生姜的含水率,搭建一个拓扑结构为“4-10-1”的FA-BP神经网络模型。研究结果表明:干燥温度、干燥风速、切片长度都是影响生姜含水率的关键因素,增加干燥风速、提高干燥温度和减少切片长度能有效缩短生姜的干燥时间,提高干燥效率。选用萤火虫算法优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值,减少了神经网络的训练时间,提高了精准度,其含水率预测值与试验值之间的决定系数R2=0.999 02,均方根误差RMSE为0.002 99,含水率预测结果准确且迅速,能够为生姜干燥过程中的含水率在线预测提供科学依据。

烘丝筒出口叶丝含水率预测模型研究

烘丝的最佳工艺参数难以确认,且叶丝含水率预测误差较大。为了在信息技术方面辅助提升烟草成品质量,研究基于极限学习机(ELM)的烘丝筒出口叶丝含水率预测模型。选取叶丝烘丝过程中松散回潮、预混柜、润叶加料等工艺阶段环境温度、湿度、加水比例等工艺参数。通过随机森林方法,将处理后有效数据中的各烘丝工艺参数以平均精准度逐渐减少顺序进行重新排序,筛选出对烘丝筒叶丝含水率预测作用较大的烘丝工艺参数。将筛选后的烘丝工艺参数作为ELM的输入数据,获取叶丝含水率预测结果。以含水率预测平均绝对误差最小为差分进化算法的适应度函数,优化ELM的隐含层神经元数量,提升烘丝筒出口叶丝含水率预测精度。试验结果表明,该模型可实现烘丝筒出口叶丝含水率预测,且预测误差小于0.3%,预测精度高。该研究有助于提升烟草质量。

双组分织物含水率的微波谐振腔法测量技术

针对染整过程中多组分织物含水率准确检测问题,提出了一套基于微波谐振腔法的织物含水率检测系统。首先,基于Bruggeman-Hanai介电混合模型,结合织物结构特征建立了单组分织物含水率与介电常数的关系模型;通过考虑织物厚度与多组分织物组分配比的影响,建立了双组分织物含水率介电常数模型。接着,开展湿度均匀的纯棉、涤纶、混纺织物的介电常数测量实验,采用贝塞尔拟合方法,得到双组分织物介电常数模型的系数,从而获得了不同材质、厚度、组分配比下织物含水率与介电常数的关系模型。通过比较实验织物样品含水率与理论模型预测结果发现,二者吻合较好,均方根误差小于5%,从而验证了双组分织物含水率介电模型的可行性,为后续纺织品含水率检测提供技术支撑。

花椒热风-微波组合干燥失水特性研究

花椒热风干燥降速期水分含量低,水分扩散慢,导致热风干燥耗时长。为提高干燥效率,并通过热风与微波组合干燥,分别进行热风干燥、微波干燥和热风-微波组合干燥实验,探究不同干燥参数对花椒失水特性的影响,以确定合理的干燥转换临界点和最优组合干燥模型,并将傅里叶准则数(F_(0))引入Fick第二扩散定律方程,求解有效水分扩散系数(D_(eff))。研究结果表明:热风和微波单独干燥时,升高风温风速和增加微波功率均有利于缩短干燥时间;热风-微波组合干燥花椒时,热风段转微波段的最佳目标含水率即为热风干燥的临界点含水率(65%(w.b)),且高热风温度和高微波功率均可使微波干燥段获得高失水速率;热风-微波组合干燥花椒热风段和微波段对应的最优模型分别为Wang and Singh模型和Page模型,D_(eff)范围分别为1.908×10^(-9)~3.547×10^(-9)m^(2)/s和1.883×10^(-8)~3.321×10^(-8)m^(2)/s。热风-微波组合干燥方式能够显著提高干燥效率,促进花椒内部水分扩散,干燥模型可为优化干燥工艺和设计干燥设备提供理论依据。