Monitoring models for base flow effect and daily variation of dam seepage elements considering time lag effect

Affected by external environmental factors and evolution of dam performance, dam seepage behavior shows nonlinear time-varying characteristics. In this study, to predict and evaluate the long-term development trend and short-term fluctuation of the dam seepage behavior, two monitoring models were developed, one for the base flow effect and one for daily variation of dam seepage elements. In the first model, to avoid the influence of the time lag effect on the evaluation of seepage variation with the time effect component of seepage elements, the base values of the seepage element and the reservoir water level were extracted using the wavelet multi-resolution analysis method, and the time effect component was separated by the established base flow effect monitoring model. For the development of the daily variation monitoring model for dam seepage elements, all the previous factors, of which the measured time series prior to the dam seepage element monitoring time may have certain influence on the monitored results, were considered. Those factors that were positively correlated with the analyzed seepage element were initially considered to be the support vector machine(SVM) model input factors, and then the SVM kernel function-based sensitivity analysis was performed to optimize the input factor set and establish the optimized daily variation SVM model. The efficiency and rationality of the two models were verified by case studies of the water level of two piezometric tubes buried under the slope of a concrete gravity dam.Sensitivity analysis of the optimized SVM model shows that the influences of the daily variation of the upstream reservoir water level and rainfall on the daily variation of piezometric tube water level are processes subject to normal distribution.

Seepage safety monitoring model for an earth rock dam under influence of high-impact typhoons based on particle swarm optimization algorithm

Extreme hydrological events induced by typhoons in reservoir areas have presented severe challenges to the safe operation of hydraulic structures. Based on analysis of the seepage characteristics of an earth rock dam, a novel seepage safety monitoring model was constructed in this study. The nonlinear influence processes of the antecedent reservoir water level and rainfall were assumed to follow normal distributions. The particle swarm optimization （PSO） algorithm was used to optimize the model parameters so as to raise the fitting accuracy. In addition, a mutation factor was introduced to simulate the sudden increase in the piezometric level induced by short-duration heavy rainfall and the possible historical extreme reservoir water level during a typhoon. In order to verify the efficacy of this model, the earth rock dam of the Siminghu Reservoir was used as an example. The piezometric level at the SW1-2 measuring point during Typhoon Fitow in 2013 was fitted with the present model, and a corresponding theoretical expression was established. Comparison of fitting results of the piezometric level obtained from the present statistical model and traditional statistical model with monitored values during the typhoon shows that the present model has a higher fitting accuracy and can simulate the uprush feature of the seepage pressure during the typhoon perfectly.

Effects of modeling means on properties of monitoring models of spot welding quality

Analyzing and modeling the relation between monitoring information during welding and quality information of the joints is the foundation of monitoring resistance spot welding quality. According to the means of modeling, the known models can be divided into three large categories: single linear regression models, multiple linear regression models and multiple non linear models. By modeling the relations between dynamic resistance information and welding quality parameters with different means, this paper analyzes effects of modeling means on performances of monitoring models of resistance spot welding quality. From the test results, the following conclusions can be drawn: By comparison with two other kinds of models, artificial neural network (ANN) model can describe non linear and high coupling relationship between monitoring information and quality information more reasonably, improve performance of monitoring model remarkably, and make the estimated values of welding quality parameters more accurate and reliable.

Analog-experiment analysis of ash-deposition monitoring model of boiler economizers in power plants

Ash deposition is a form of particulate fouling, and appears usually in boiler economizers. The ash deposition increases capital expenditure, energy input and maintenance costs. An analog experiment for monitoring ash deposition was performed from the analogous objective of a 410 t/h boiler economizer to verify the rationality and reliability of the ash-deposition-monitoring model presented in order to increase the security and economy in economizer running. The analog experiment platform is a tube-shell exchanger that conforms well to the conditions of a self-modeling area. The analog flue gas in the shell side is the heated air mixed with ash, and in the tube side the fluid is water heated by the flue gas. The fluid state in the water side and the flue gas side follows the second self-modeling area. A 4-factor-3-level orthogonal table was used to schedule 9 operation conditions of orthogonal experiment, with the 4 factors being heat power, flue gas velocity, ashes grain diameter and adding ashes quantity while the three levels are different values due to different position classes in every factor. The ash deposition thermal resistances is calculated by the model with the measure parameters of temperature and pressure drop. It shows that the values of the ash deposition thermal resistances gradually increase up to a stable state. And the experimental results are reliable by F testing method at α= 0.001. Therefore, the model can be applied in online monitoring of ash deposition in a boiler economizers in power plants and provides scientific decision on ash deposition prediction and sootblowing.

Abnormality monitoring model of cracks in concrete dams

The abnormality monitoring model (AMM) of cracks in concrete dams is established through integrating safety monitoring theories with abnormality diagnosis methods of cracks. In addition, emphasis is placed on the influence of crack depth on crack mouth opening displacement (CMOD). A linear hypothesis is proposed for the propagation process of cracks in concrete based on the fictitious crack model (FCM). Abnormality points are detected through testing methods of dynamical structure mutation and statistical model mutation. The solution of AMM is transformed into a global optimization problem, which is solved by the particle swarm optimization (PSO) method. Therefore, the AMM of cracks in concrete dams is established and solved completely. In the end of the paper, the proposed model is validated by a typical crack at the 105 m elevation of a concrete gravity arch dam.

On the monitoring model of reference point of VLBI antenna

Some insights and analysis are presented concerning the monitoring model of the VLBI(Very Long Baseline Interferometry) antenna,settings of parameters and selection of constraints to the observation equation,which are verified via data simulation analysis to be reasonable and effective.The effects of the number of targets and antenna orientations,the precision of target positioning observations,the observation outliers detection and deletion on the determination precision of antenna parameters are also analyzed,and some preliminary conclusions are given.

RESEARCH ON SEEPAGE MONITORING MODEL OF EARTH-ROCK DAM

With the characteristics of seepage flow in earth-rock dams, a seepagemonitoring model was established based on the finite element method for 3-D seepage flow togetherwith observed data and was used to analyze and monitor the seepage of dams. In order to find out andmonitor the seepage status of the whole dam, the separation of seepage a-mount for dam body, damfoundation and side banks was made theoretically by using the model. Practical example shows thatthe accuracy of computed results is satisfactory and the separation results are more objective.

Ill-conditioned problems of dam safety monitoring models and their processing methods

The focus of this paper is the ill-conditioned problems in the dam safety monitoring model. The reasons to give rise to the ill-conditioned problems in statistical models,deterministic models and hybrid models are analyzed in detail,and the criterions for ill-conditioned models are investigated. It is shown that safety monitoring models are not easy to be ill-conditioned if the number of influence factors is less than seven. Moreover,the models have a high accuracy and can meet the engineering requirements. Another frequently encountered problem in establishing a safety monitoring model is the existence of inflection points,which are often present in the mathematical model for the hydraulic components in deterministic models and hybrid models. The conditions for inflection points are studied and their treatments are suggested. Numerical example indicates that the treatments proposed in this paper are effective in removing the ill-conditioned problems.

Deformation prediction model of concrete face rockfill dams based on an improved random forest model

The unique structure and complex deformation characteristics of concrete face rockfill dams(CFRDs)create safety monitoring challenges.This study developed an improved random forest(IRF)model for dam health monitoring modeling by replacing the decision tree in the random forest(RF)model with a novel M5'model tree algorithm.The factors affecting dam deformation were preliminarily selected using the statistical model,and the grey relational degree theory was utilized to reduce the dimensions of model input variables.Finally,a deformation prediction model of CFRDs was established using the IRF model.The ten-fold cross-validation method was used to quantitatively analyze the parameters affecting the IRF algorithm.The performance of the established model was verified using data from three specific measurement points on the Jishixia dam and compared with other dam deformation prediction models.At point ES-10,the performance evaluation indices of the IRF model were superior to those of the M5'model tree and RF models and the classical support vector regression(SVR)and back propagation(BP)neural network models,indicating the satisfactory performance of the IRF model.The IRF model also outperformed the SVR and BP models in settlement prediction at points ES2-8 and ES4-10,demonstrating its strong anti-interference and generalization capabilities.This study has developed a novel method for forecasting and analyzing dam settlements with practical significance.Moreover,the established IRF model can also provide guidance for modeling health monitoring of other structures.

Study and application of monitoring plane displacement of a similarity model based on time-series images

In order to compensate for the deficiency of present methods of monitoring plane displacement in similarity model tests,such as inadequate real-time monitoring and more manual intervention,an effective monitoring method was proposed in this study,and the major steps of the monitoring method include:firstly,time-series images of the similarity model in the test were obtained by a camera,and secondly,measuring points marked as artificial targets were automatically tracked and recognized from time-series images.Finally,the real-time plane displacement field was calculated by the fixed magnification between objects and images under the specific conditions.And then the application device of the method was designed and tested.At the same time,a sub-pixel location method and a distortion error model were used to improve the measuring accuracy.The results indicate that this method may record the entire test,especially the detailed non-uniform deformation and sudden deformation.Compared with traditional methods this method has a number of advantages,such as greater measurement accuracy and reliability,less manual intervention,higher automation,strong practical properties,much more measurement information and so on.

Parsimonious Model for Blood Glucose Level Monitoring in Type 2 Diabetes patients

To establish the parsimonious model for blood glucose monitoring in patients with type 2 diabetes receiving oral hypoglycemic agent treatment. One hundred and fifty-nine adult Chinese type 2 diabetes patients were randomized to receive rapid-acting or sustained-release gliclazide therapy for 12 weeks.

A novel multimode process monitoring method integrating LCGMM with modified LFDA

Complex processes often work with multiple operation regions, it is critical to develop effective monitoring approaches to ensure the safety of chemical processes. In this work, a discriminant local consistency Gaussian mixture model(DLCGMM) for multimode process monitoring is proposed for multimode process monitoring by integrating LCGMM with modified local Fisher discriminant analysis(MLFDA). Different from Fisher discriminant analysis(FDA) that aims to discover the global optimal discriminant directions, MLFDA is capable of uncovering multimodality and local structure of the data by exploiting the posterior probabilities of observations within clusters calculated from the results of LCGMM. This may enable MLFDA to capture more meaningful discriminant information hidden in the high-dimensional multimode observations comparing to FDA. Contrary to most existing multimode process monitoring approaches, DLCGMM performs LCGMM and MFLDA iteratively, and the optimal subspaces with multi-Gaussianity and the optimal discriminant projection vectors are simultaneously achieved in the framework of supervised and unsupervised learning. Furthermore, monitoring statistics are established on each cluster that represents a specific operation condition and two global Bayesian inference-based fault monitoring indexes are established by combining with all the monitoring results of all clusters. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method are evaluated through UCI datasets, a simulated multimode model and the Tennessee Eastman benchmark process.

Performance evaluation of quality monitor models in spot welding

Performance of quality monitor models in spot welding determines the monitor precision directly, so it’s crucial to evaluate it. Previously, mean square error (MSE) is often used to evaluate performances of models, but it can only show the total errors of finite specimens of models, and cannot show whether the quality information inferred from models are accurate and reliable enough or not. For this reason, by means of measure error theory, a new way to evaluate the performances of models according to the error distributions is developed as follows: Only if correct and precise enough the error distribution of model is, the quality information inferred from model is accurate and reliable.

An aligned mixture probabilistic principal component analysis for fault detection of multimode chemical processes

A novel approach named aligned mixture probabilistic principal component analysis(AMPPCA) is proposed in this study for fault detection of multimode chemical processes. In order to exploit within-mode correlations,the AMPPCA algorithm first estimates a statistical description for each operating mode by applying mixture probabilistic principal component analysis(MPPCA). As a comparison, the combined MPPCA is employed where monitoring results are softly integrated according to posterior probabilities of the test sample in each local model. For exploiting the cross-mode correlations, which may be useful but are inadvertently neglected due to separately held monitoring approaches, a global monitoring model is constructed by aligning all local models together. In this way, both within-mode and cross-mode correlations are preserved in this integrated space. Finally, the utility and feasibility of AMPPCA are demonstrated through a non-isothermal continuous stirred tank reactor and the TE benchmark process.

An Emergency Scenario Reconstruction System Based on ESMM Event Situation Model

In order to keep decision-makers better informed with emergencies, it is useful to retrieve the user-oriented disaster relevant event information in an aggregated results list through meta-search engine. However, emergent event is dynamic which makes it difficult to use fixed search word or word combinations. This paper proposes an event situation monitoring model（ESMM） event detection model, which realizes heuristic query word vector dynamic expanding by adopting emergency fuzzy scenario reasoning ontology cluster. Disaster event facet information automatic searching is discussed as an example in this paper. The experimental results show that the proposed method can increase accuracy and extra clues not supplied by commercial search engines, which can be used as a supplement information source for government and individuals.

Evaluation of health benefit using Ben MAP-CE with an integrated scheme of model and monitor data during Guangzhou Asian Games

Guangzhou is the capital and largest city（land area：7287 km2）of Guangdong province in South China.The air quality in Guangzhou typically worsens in November due to unfavorable meteorological conditions for pollutant dispersion.During the Guangzhou Asian Games in November 2010,the Guangzhou government carried out a number of emission control measures that significantly improved the air quality.In this paper,we estimated the acute health outcome changes related to the air quality improvement during the 2010 Guangzhou Asian Games using a next-generation,fully-integrated assessment system for air quality and health benefits.This advanced system generates air quality data by fusing model and monitoring data instead of using monitoring data alone,which provides more reliable results.The air quality estimates retain the spatial distribution of model results while calibrating the value with observations.The results show that the mean PM2.5concentration in November 2010 decreased by 3.5μg/m^3 compared to that in 2009 due to the emission control measures.From the analysis,we estimate that the air quality improvement avoided 106 premature deaths,1869 cases of hospital admission,and 20,026 cases of outpatient visits.The overall cost benefit of the improved air quality is estimated to be 165 million CNY,with the avoided premature death contributing 90%of this figure.The research demonstrates that Ben MAP-CE is capable of assessing the health and cost benefits of air pollution control for sound policy making.

Analysis method of thermal dam deformation

Based on the internal temperature variation of a dam lagging behind the ambient temperature variation,the ambient temperature of continuous variation is disctetized,and the functional expression of the thermal displacement component of the dam caused by single instantaneous temperature variation is obtained.Considering the temporal and spatial distribution law of the ambient temperature and its relation with air and water temperature,the function is expanded into a Taylor series.As a result,the improved thermal displacement component expression for a dam monitoring model is obtained.