ANALYSIS ON INTRA-ANNUAL INHOMOGENEITY OF RAINSTORM EVENTS IN GUANGXI

Based on the daily precipitation data of 83 stations in Guangxi and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1979 through 2008, the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and variation of the rainstorm concentration degree(RCD) and the rainstorm concentration period(RCP) are analyzed by using the methods of Monte Carlo test etc. The results are shown as follows. The rainstorm events are concentrated in April-September, taking up about 90% of the yearly rainfall total, and the percentages of rainstorms in the annual total precipitation have an increasing tendency. RCD in the east of Guangxi is larger than that in the west. The RCP in the northeast and southwest of Guangxi is later than that in the other regions, and has the earliest onset in the northern mountainous regions of Baise and southeast Guangxi. The RCD exhibits an increasing tendency in the northwest and the coastal region while showing a decreasing tendency in the other regions. On a long-term basis, the RCP in the east and coastal region has a postponing trend but tends to be earlier in the other regions. The proposed mechanism is as follows: If the geopotential height in the south of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the West Pacific has a highly negative anomaly in winter, the western Pacific subtropical high will be strong in summer, which increases the RCD in Guangxi. If the geopotential height has a highly positive anomaly in winter, the subtropical high will have a significant periodic oscillation in summer, which decreases the RCD in Guangxi. The value of RCD is high(low) in the area of northern mountainous regions of Guangxi and Beihai in strong(weak) South China Sea summer monsoon years, while in the other areas, the value of RCD is low(high).

Study on the Variation Characteristics of Precipitation Concentration Degree in Guangxi under the Background of Global Climate Becoming Warm

Based on the daily precipitation data of 87 meteorological observation stations in Guangxi during 1961-2008,the variation characteristics of precipitation concentration degree(PCD) in Guangxi were counted and analyzed by using Monte Carlo test method.The results showed that the climate warming in most areas of Guangxi was very obvious,and the annual precipitation concentration degree increased gradually from the northeast to the southwest in Guangxi.The precipitation concentration period was from the middle of April to the end of August and delayed from the northeast to the southwest in Guangxi.In the background which the global climate became warm,the annual precipitation in most areas of Guangxi had the trend which the precipitation concentrated strengthening.It was said that the probability of flood disaster had the increase trend.The precipitation concentration period had the earlier trend,which was more obvious in the north than in the south of Guangxi.The rainstorm concentration degree in the northwest of Guangxi and few parts had the decrease trend and had the increase trend in other areas.It was said that the probabilities of flood and mud-rock flow disasters increased.The rainstorm concentration periods in most areas had the later trend.

Empirical Likelihood Based Goodness-of-fit Testing for Generalized Linear Mixed Models

In this paper, we propose a bias-corrected empirical likelihood （BCEL） ratio to construct a goodness- of-fit test for generalized linear mixed models. BCEL test maintains the advantage of empirical likelihood that is self scale invariant and then does not involve estimating limiting variance of the test statistic to avoid deteri- orating power of test. Furthermore, the bias correction makes the limit to be a process in which every variable is standard chi-squared. This simple structure of the process enables us to construct a Monte Carlo test proce- dure to approximate the null distribution. Thus, it overcomes a problem we encounter when classical empirical likelihood test is used, as it is asymptotically a functional of Gaussian process plus a normal shift function. The complicated covariance function makes it difficult to employ any approximation for the null distribution. The test is omnibus and power study shows that the test can detect local alternatives approaching the null at parametric rate. Simulations are carried out for illustration and for a comparison with existing method.

Mechanism of capture section affecting an intake for atmosphere-breathing electric propulsion

Atmosphere-Breathing Electric Propulsion(ABEP)can compensate for lost momentum of spacecraft operating in Very Low Earth Orbit(VLEO)which has been widely concerned due to its excellent commercial potential.It is a key technology to improve the capture efficiency of intakes,which collect and compress the atmosphere for ABEP.In this paper,the mechanism of the capture section affecting capture efficiency is investigated by Test Particle Monte Carlo(TPMC)simulations with 3D intake models.The inner surface smoothness and average collision number are determined to be key factors affecting capture efficiency,and a negative effect growth model is accordingly established.When the inner surface smoothness is less than 0.2,the highest capture efficiency and its corresponding average collision number interval are independent of the capture section’s geometry and its mesh size.When the inner surface smoothness is higher than 0.2,the capture efficiency will decrease by installing any capture section.Based on the present results,the manufacturing process and material selection are suggested to be prioritized during the intake geometry design in engineering projects.Then,the highest capture efficiency can be achieved by adjusting the length and mesh size of the capture section.

A Fault Sample Simulation Approach for Virtual Testability Demonstration Test

Virtual testability demonstration test has many advantages,such as low cost,high efficiency,low risk and few restrictions.It brings new requirements to the fault sample generation.A fault sample simulation approach for virtual testability demonstration test based on stochastic process theory is proposed.First,the similarities and differences of fault sample generation between physical testability demonstration test and virtual testability demonstration test are discussed.Second,it is pointed out that the fault occurrence process subject to perfect repair is renewal process.Third,the interarrival time distribution function of the next fault event is given.Steps and flowcharts of fault sample generation are introduced.The number of faults and their occurrence time are obtained by statistical simulation.Finally,experiments are carried out on a stable tracking platform.Because a variety of types of life distributions and maintenance modes are considered and some assumptions are removed,the sample size and structure of fault sample simulation results are more similar to the actual results and more reasonable.The proposed method can effectively guide the fault injection in virtual testability demonstration test.

The GWmodel R package:further topics for exploring spatial heterogeneity using geographically weighted models

In this study,we present a collection of local models,termed geographically weighted(GW)models,which can be found within the GWmodel R package.A GW model suits situations when spatial data are poorly described by the global form,and for some regions the localized fit provides a better description.The approach uses a moving window weighting technique,where a collection of local models are estimated at target locations.Commonly,model parameters or outputs are mapped so that the nature of spatial heterogeneity can be explored and assessed.In particular,we present case studies using:(i)GW summary statistics and a GW principal components analysis;(ii)advanced GW regression fits and diagnostics;(iii)associated Monte Carlo significance tests for non-stationarity;(iv)a GW discriminant analysis;and(v)enhanced kernel bandwidth selection procedures.General Election data-sets from the Republic of Ireland and US are used for demonstration.This study is designed to complement a companion GWmodel study,which focuses on basic and robust GW models.