Approach of technical decision-making by element flow analysis and Monte-Carlo simulation of municipal solid waste stream

This paper deals with the procedure and methodology which can be used to select the optimal treatment and disposal technology of municipal solid waste （MSW）, and to provide practical and effective technical support to policy-making, on the basis of study on solid waste management status and development trend in China and abroad. Focusing on various treatment and disposal technologies and processes of MSW, this study established a Monte-Carlo mathematical model of cost minimization for MSW handling subjected to environmental constraints. A new method of element stream （such as C, H, O, N, S） analysis in combination with economic stream analysis of MSW was developed. By following the streams of different treatment processes consisting of various techniques from generation, separation, transfer, transport, treatment, recycling and disposal of the wastes, the element constitution as well as its economic distribution in terms of possibility functions was identified. Every technique step was evaluated economically. The Mont-Carlo method was then conducted for model calibration. Sensitivity analysis was also carried out to identify the most sensitive factors. Model calibration indicated that landfill with power generation of landfill gas was economically the optimal technology at the present stage under the condition of more than 58% of C, H, O, N, S going to landfill. Whether or not to generate electricity was the most sensitive factor. If landfilling cost increases, MSW separation treatment was recommended by screening first followed with incinerating partially and composting partially with residue landfilling. The possibility of incineration model selection as the optimal technology was affected by the city scale. For big cities and metropolitans with large MSW generation, possibility for constructing large-scale incineration facilities increases, whereas, for middle and small cities, the effectiveness of incinerating waste decreases.

Probabilistic analysis of embankment slope stability in frozen ground regions based on random finite element method

Prediction on the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields of embankment and cutting slopes is essential to the assessment on evolution of melting zone and natural permafrost table, which is usually a key factor for permafrost embankment design in frozen ground regions. The prediction may be further complicated due to the inherent uncertainties of material properties. Hence, stochastic analyses should be conducted. Firstly, Karhunen-Loeve expansion is applied to attain the random fields for hydraulic and thermal conductions. Next, the mixed-form modified Richards equation for mass transfer （i.e., mass equation） and the heat transport equation for heat transient flow in a variably saturated frozen soil are combined into one equation with temperature unknown. Furthermore, the finite element formulation for the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields is derived. Based on the random fields, the stochastic finite element analyses on stability of embankment are carried out. Numerical results show that stochastic analyses of embankment stability may provide a more rational picture for the distribution of factors of safety （FOS）, which is definitely useful for embankment design in frozen ground regions.

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Offshore Structures

During the life of an offshore structure, its structural strength declines due to various kinds of damages related to the time factor. In this paper, four major kinds of damages, including damages caused by fatigue, dent, corrosion and marine life, are discussed. Based on these analyses, formulas for the evaluation of the damaged structure reliability are derived. Furthermore the computer program ISM for the analysis of structural reliability is developed by the use of Advanced First Order Second Moment method and Monte-Carlo Importance Sampling method. The reliability of a turbular joint and a beam are studied as numerical examples. The results show that the theory and the analysis method given in this paper are reasonable and effective.

A novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics through options pricing analysis

We propose a novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics using option pricing theory.The problem of valuing the inherent real optionality a coal producer has when mining and processing thermal coal is modelled as pricing spread options of three assets under the stochastic volatility model.We derive a three-dimensional Fast Fourier Transform(“FFT”)lower bound approximation to value the inherent real optionality and for robustness check,we compare the semi-analytical pricing accuracy with the Monte Carlo simulation.Model parameters are estimated from the historical monthly data,and stochastic volatility parameters are obtained by matching the Kurtosis of the low-ash diff data to the Kurtosis of the stochastic volatility process which is assumed to follow Cox–Ingersoll–Ross(“CIR”)model.

Global optimum of microstructure parameters in the CMWP line-profile-analysis method by combining Marquardt-Levenberg and Monte-Carlo procedures

Line profile analysis of X-ray and neutron diffraction patterns is a powerful tool for determining the microstructure of crystalline materials. The Convolutional-Multiple-Whole-Profile (CMWP) procedure is based on physical profile functions for dislocations, domain size, stacking faults and twin boundaries. Order dependence, strain anisotropy, hkl dependent broadening of planar defects and peak shape are used to separate the effect of different lattice defect types. The Marquardt-Levenberg (ML) numerical optimiza-tion procedure has been used successfully to determine crystal defect types and densities. However, in more complex cases like hexagonal materials or multiple phases the ML procedure alone reveals uncer-tainties. In a new approach the ML and a Monte-Carlo statistical method are combined in an alternative manner. The new CMWP procedure eliminates uncertainties and provides globally optimized parameters.

Monte-Carlo Studies and Computer Modelling of Multi-wavelength Pyrometry

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AN IMPROVED M-C METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY

An improved Monte-Carlo method for the failure calculation of structure is proposed.The present method can determine whether some sample points are in the safe region without doing structural analysis,so the calculation work is greatly reduced compared with the ordinary M-C method.Finally,the new M-C method is applied to reliability analysis of frame and the torsional buckling reliability analysis of cylindrical shells.

基于响应表面法的汽轮机叶片随机响应特性分析

为了满足二回路汽轮机叶片可靠性设计的要求,在概率有限元的基础上引入响应表面法,考虑汽轮机叶片材料参数和载荷参数的随机性,计算得到叶片的随机响应的统计特性及累计概率分布函数,并对叶片的可靠性进行分析。采用概率敏感性分析方法,分析随机响应变量相对于随机输入变量的概率灵敏度。最后,通过对叶片结构响应与随机输入变量散点图的分析,给出关于如何提高叶片可靠度的建议。计算结果表明,该方法计算速度快,计算量小,精度高。

Simulation of failure process of jointed rock

A modified discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) algorithm was proposed to simulate the failure behavior of jointed rock. In the proposed algorithm, by using the Monte-Carlo technique, random joint network was generated in the domain of interest. Based on the joint network, the triangular DDA block system was automatically generated by adopting the advanced front method. In the process of generating blocks, numerous artificial joints came into being, and once the stress states at some artificial joints satisfy the failure criterion given beforehand, artificial joints will turn into real joints. In this way, the whole fragmentation process of rock mass can be replicated. The algorithm logic was described in detail, and several numerical examples were carried out to obtain some insight into the failure behavior of rock mass containing random joints. From the numerical results, it can be found that the crack initiates from the crack tip, the growth direction of the crack depends upon the loading and constraint conditions, and the proposed method can reproduce some complicated phenomena in the whole process of rock failure.

Using radium isotopes to evaluate the uncertainty of submarine groundwater discharge in the northeast and entirety of Daya Bay

Submarine groundwater discharge(SGD),which can be traced using naturally occurring radium isotopes,has been recognized as a significant nutrient source and land-ocean interaction passage for the coastal waters of the Daya Bay,China.However,uncertainties in assessing SGD fluxes must still be discussed in detail.In this study,we attempted to utilize the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainties of radium-derived SGD flux in the northeast and entirety of the Daya Bay.The results show that the uncertainties of the SGD estimate in the northeast bay are very sensitive to variations in excess radium inventories as well as radium inputs from bottom sediments,while the uncertainties of the SGD estimate for the entire bay are strongly affected by fluctuations in radium inputs from bottom sediments and radium end-members of SGD.This study will help to distinguish the key factors controlling the accuracy of SGD estimates in similar coastal waters.

Reliability analysis of reinforced concrete columns under combined seismic and blast loads

It is possible for certain building structures to encounter both the seismic load and blast load during their service life.With the development of the economy and the increase of security demand,the need for design of building structures against multi-hazard is becoming more and more obvious.Therefore,the damage analysis of building structures under the combined action of multiple hazards has become a very urgent requirement for disaster prevention and reduction.In this paper,the refined finite element model of reinforced concrete(RC)columns is established by using the explicit dynamic analysis software LS-DYNA.Combined with the Monte Carlo method,the damage law of RC columns under the combined action of random single earthquake or explosion disaster and multi-hazard is studied,and the damage groups are distinguished according to the damage index.Based on the support vector machine(SVM)algorithm,the dividing line between different damage degree groups is determined,and a rapid method for determining the damage degree of RC columns under the combined seismic and blast loads is proposed.Finally,suggestions for the design of RC column against multi-disaster are put forward.

Evaluating the treatment of E-waste──a case study of discarded refrigerators

Disassembly and recycling of E-waste creates a series of environmental problems. The selection of a technologically reliable, environmentally friendly, economically affordable and socially acceptable recycling technology for E-waste is a significant question. This study establishes a Monte-Carlo mathematical model of cost minimization, given the constraints of environmentally sound handling of the e-waste, in the context of Crystal Ball risk assessment and evaluation software. By following the streams of the different treatment processes, which consist of various technologies including disassembly, recycling and disposal, the econom-ics of various possibilities were identified and the optimal recycling technology proposed. The key factors of the proposed scenarios were determined by using sensitivity analysis. The results of this study show that, for discarded refrigerators, the operating life span plays the key role. The model supports maintenance and resale of the short lived refrigerators. For the longer lived refrigerators material recycling is recommended by the model. Sensitivity analysis shows that purchase cost, plastic sale price, condenser sale price and disassembly costs are the main effects. This study provides a significant technical support for policy making in E-waste management.