We proposed an enhanced image binarization method.The proposed solution incorporates Monte-Carlo simulation into the local thresholding method to address the essential issues with respect to complex background,spatial...We proposed an enhanced image binarization method.The proposed solution incorporates Monte-Carlo simulation into the local thresholding method to address the essential issues with respect to complex background,spatially-changed illumination,and uncertainties of block size in traditional method.The proposed method first partitions the image into square blocks that reflect local characteristics of the image.After image partitioning,each block is binarized using Otsu’s thresholding method.To minimize the influence of the block size and the boundary effect,we incorporate Monte-Carlo simulation into the binarization algorithm.Iterative calculation with varying block sizes during Monte-Carlo simulation generates a probability map,which illustrates the probability of each pixel classified as foreground.By setting a probability threshold,and separating foreground and background of the source image,the final binary image can be obtained.The described method has been tested by benchmark tests.Results demonstrate that the proposed method performs well in dealing with the complex background and illumination condition.展开更多
An analysis of the radar backscattering from the ocean surface covered by oil spill is presented using a mi- crowave scattering model and Monte-Carlo simulation. In the analysis, a one-dimensional rough sea sur- face ...An analysis of the radar backscattering from the ocean surface covered by oil spill is presented using a mi- crowave scattering model and Monte-Carlo simulation. In the analysis, a one-dimensional rough sea sur- face is numerically generated with an ocean waveheight spectrum for a given wind velocity. A two-layered medium is then generated by adding a thin oil layer on the simulated rough sea surface. The electric fields backscattered from the sea surface with two-layered medium are computed with the method of moments (MoM), and the backscattering coefficients are statistically obtained with N independent samples for each oil-spilled surface using the Monte-Carlo technique for various conditions of surface roughness, oil-layer thickness, frequency, polarization and incidence angle. The numerical simulation results are compared with theoretical models for clean sea surfaces and SAR images of an off-spilled sea surface caused by the Hebei (Hebei province, China) Spirit oil tanker in 2007. Further, conditions for better oil spill extraction are sought by the numerical simulation on the effects of wind speed and oil-layer thickness at different inci- dence angles on the backscattering coefficients.展开更多
A new hybrid method, Monte-Carlo-Heat-Flux (MCHF) method, was presented to analyze the radiative heat transfer of participating medium in a three-dimensional rectangular enclosure using combined the Monte-Carlo meth...A new hybrid method, Monte-Carlo-Heat-Flux (MCHF) method, was presented to analyze the radiative heat transfer of participating medium in a three-dimensional rectangular enclosure using combined the Monte-Carlo method with the heat flux method. Its accuracy and reliability was proved by comparing the computational results with exact results from classical "Zone Method".展开更多
Monte-Carlo method is used for estimating coalbed methane (CBM) resources in key coal mining areas of China. Monte-Carlo method is shown to be superior to the traditional volumetric method with constant parameters i...Monte-Carlo method is used for estimating coalbed methane (CBM) resources in key coal mining areas of China. Monte-Carlo method is shown to be superior to the traditional volumetric method with constant parameters in the calculation of CBM resources. The focus of the article is to introduce the main algorithm and the realization of functions estimated by Monte-Carlo method, including selection of parameters, determination of distribution function, generation of pseudo-random numbers, and evaluation of the parameters corresponding to pseudo-random numbers. A specified software on the basis of Monte-Carlo method is developed using Visual C++ for the assessment of the CBM resources. A case study shows that calculation results using Monte-Carlo method have smaller error range in comparison with those using volumetric method.展开更多
The following article has been retracted due to the investigation of complaints received against it. Mr. Mohammadali Ghorbani (corresponding author and also the last author) cheated the author’s name: Alireza Heidari...The following article has been retracted due to the investigation of complaints received against it. Mr. Mohammadali Ghorbani (corresponding author and also the last author) cheated the author’s name: Alireza Heidari. The scientific community takes a very strong view on this matter and we treat all unethical behavior such as plagiarism seriously. This paper published in Vol.3 No.3, 260-265, 2012, has been removed from this site.展开更多
Based on protein-DNA complex crystal structural data in up-to-date Nucleic Acid Database,the related parameters of DNA Kinetic Structure were investigated by Monte-Carlo Multiple Integrals on the base of modified DNA ...Based on protein-DNA complex crystal structural data in up-to-date Nucleic Acid Database,the related parameters of DNA Kinetic Structure were investigated by Monte-Carlo Multiple Integrals on the base of modified DNA structure statistical mechanical model,and time complexity and precision were analyzed on the calculated results.展开更多
Combined with current specifications and stress characteristics of concrete filled steel tubular (CFST) arch bridges, the determination principle of safe-middle-failure threestage mode is given. Accordingly, damage ...Combined with current specifications and stress characteristics of concrete filled steel tubular (CFST) arch bridges, the determination principle of safe-middle-failure threestage mode is given. Accordingly, damage probability and failure probability and the corresponding reliability indices are calculated; a direct relationship between reliability indices and three-stage working status is made. Based on the three-stage working mode, a combined FNM (finite element-neural network- Monte-Carlo simulation) method is put forward to estimate the reliability of existing bridges. According to time-dependent reliability theory, subsequent service time is divided into several stages; minimum samples required by the Monte-Carlo method are generated by random sampling; training samples are calculated by the finite element method, and the training samples are extended by the neural network; failure probability and damage probability are calculated by the Monte-Carlo method. Thus, time dependent reliability indices are obtained, and the working status is judged. A case study is investigated to estimate the reliability of an actual bridge by the FNM method. The bridge is a CFST arch bridge with an 83.6 m span and it has been in operation for 10 years. According to analysis results, in the tenth year, the example bridge is still in safe status. This conclusion is consistent with the facts, which proves the feasibility of the FNM method for estimating the reliability of existing bridges.展开更多
Based on the observation of importance sampling and second order information about the failure surface of a structure, an importance sampling region is defined in V-space which is obtained by rotating a U-space at the...Based on the observation of importance sampling and second order information about the failure surface of a structure, an importance sampling region is defined in V-space which is obtained by rotating a U-space at the point of maximum likelihood. The sampling region is a hyper-ellipsoid that consists of the sampling ellipse on each plane of main curvature in V-space. Thus, the sampling probability density function can be constructed by the sampling region center and ellipsoid axes. Several examples have shown the efficiency and generality of this method.展开更多
This paper deals with the procedure and methodology which can be used to select the optimal treatment and disposal technology of municipal solid waste (MSW), and to provide practical and effective technical support ...This paper deals with the procedure and methodology which can be used to select the optimal treatment and disposal technology of municipal solid waste (MSW), and to provide practical and effective technical support to policy-making, on the basis of study on solid waste management status and development trend in China and abroad. Focusing on various treatment and disposal technologies and processes of MSW, this study established a Monte-Carlo mathematical model of cost minimization for MSW handling subjected to environmental constraints. A new method of element stream (such as C, H, O, N, S) analysis in combination with economic stream analysis of MSW was developed. By following the streams of different treatment processes consisting of various techniques from generation, separation, transfer, transport, treatment, recycling and disposal of the wastes, the element constitution as well as its economic distribution in terms of possibility functions was identified. Every technique step was evaluated economically. The Mont-Carlo method was then conducted for model calibration. Sensitivity analysis was also carried out to identify the most sensitive factors. Model calibration indicated that landfill with power generation of landfill gas was economically the optimal technology at the present stage under the condition of more than 58% of C, H, O, N, S going to landfill. Whether or not to generate electricity was the most sensitive factor. If landfilling cost increases, MSW separation treatment was recommended by screening first followed with incinerating partially and composting partially with residue landfilling. The possibility of incineration model selection as the optimal technology was affected by the city scale. For big cities and metropolitans with large MSW generation, possibility for constructing large-scale incineration facilities increases, whereas, for middle and small cities, the effectiveness of incinerating waste decreases.展开更多
Prediction on the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields of embankment and cutting slopes is essential to the assessment on evolution of melting zone and natural permafrost table, which is usually a key factor for permafros...Prediction on the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields of embankment and cutting slopes is essential to the assessment on evolution of melting zone and natural permafrost table, which is usually a key factor for permafrost embankment design in frozen ground regions. The prediction may be further complicated due to the inherent uncertainties of material properties. Hence, stochastic analyses should be conducted. Firstly, Karhunen-Loeve expansion is applied to attain the random fields for hydraulic and thermal conductions. Next, the mixed-form modified Richards equation for mass transfer (i.e., mass equation) and the heat transport equation for heat transient flow in a variably saturated frozen soil are combined into one equation with temperature unknown. Furthermore, the finite element formulation for the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields is derived. Based on the random fields, the stochastic finite element analyses on stability of embankment are carried out. Numerical results show that stochastic analyses of embankment stability may provide a more rational picture for the distribution of factors of safety (FOS), which is definitely useful for embankment design in frozen ground regions.展开更多
An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i...An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.展开更多
A Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate gradual fracture of fiber in a single filament composite with the increase of virtual stress. A simple computational algorithm is developed to judge where breaking point will h...A Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate gradual fracture of fiber in a single filament composite with the increase of virtual stress. A simple computational algorithm is developed to judge where breaking point will happen in the composite and a probability model based on Weibull- distribution is designed to calculate the average fragment length by producing stable and uniform random number in (0, 1). Compared to the published experiment results, the simulating average fragment length is quite perfect.展开更多
The Monte- Carlo method is used to simulate the surface fatigue crack growth rate for offshore structural steel E36-Z35, and to determine the distributions and relevance of the parameters in the Paris equation. By thi...The Monte- Carlo method is used to simulate the surface fatigue crack growth rate for offshore structural steel E36-Z35, and to determine the distributions and relevance of the parameters in the Paris equation. By this method, the time and cost of fatigue crack propagation testing can be reduced. The application of the method is demonstrated by use of four sets of fatigue crack propagation data for offshore structural steel E36-Z35. A comparison of the test data with the theoretical prediction for surface crack growth rate shows the application of the simulation method to the fatigue crack propagation tests is successful.展开更多
The paper presents a method of numerical solution of the Schrodinger equation, which combines the finite-difference and Monte-Carlo approaches. The resulting method was effective and economical and, to a certain exten...The paper presents a method of numerical solution of the Schrodinger equation, which combines the finite-difference and Monte-Carlo approaches. The resulting method was effective and economical and, to a certain extent, not improved, <em>i</em>.<em>e</em>. optimal. The method itself is formalized as an algorithm for the numerical solution of the Schrodinger equation for a molecule with an arbitrary number of quantum particles. The method is presented and simultaneously illustrated by examples of solving the one-dimensional and multidimensional Schrodinger equation in such problems: linear one-dimensional oscillator, hydrogen atom, ion and hydrogen molecule, water, benzene and metallic hydrogen.展开更多
A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Mar...A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Marquardt Method (i. e.,Dampled Least Square Method) while initial values inoptimization are produced by Monte-Carlo Method. The Potential ofthe method as a parameter estimation aid is demonstrated for theapplication to the Liangyi Rver, JiangSu Province of China and by aspecial comparison with Gauss Method.展开更多
Atomic growth process and structure of Amorphous Electroless Coating have been studied, using Monte-Carlo simulation method. The simulation results of amorphous Ni80P20 coating show that PDFs are in accordance with pr...Atomic growth process and structure of Amorphous Electroless Coating have been studied, using Monte-Carlo simulation method. The simulation results of amorphous Ni80P20 coating show that PDFs are in accordance with practical values. The migrations of adatoms in coating's growth are different from that of solidification of amorphous materials. In some cases, the migrated adatoms in the process of growth of amorphous coating are not enough to occupy all vacancies and traps, so the amorphous coating is micro-porous. The immovable probability k and the largest migration distance of adatoms, which lie on the electroless bath components, affect the PDF, volume density and microporosity remarkably.展开更多
The present research relies on a cascade control approach through the Monte-Carlo based method in the presence of uncertainties to evaluate the performance of the real overactuated space systems.A number of potential ...The present research relies on a cascade control approach through the Monte-Carlo based method in the presence of uncertainties to evaluate the performance of the real overactuated space systems.A number of potential investigations in this area are first considered to prepare an idea with respect to state-of-the-art.The insight proposed here is organized to present attitude cascade control approach including the low thrust in connection with the high thrust to be implemented,while the aforementioned Monte-Carlo based method is carried out to guarantee the approach performance.It is noted that the investigated outcomes are efficient to handle a class of space systems presented via the center of mass and the moments of inertial.And also a number of profiles for the thrust vector and the misalignments as the disturbances all vary in its span of nominal variations.The acquired results are finally analyzed in line with some well-known benchmarks to verify the approach efficiency.The key core of finding in the research is to propose a novel 3-axis control approach to deal with all the mentioned uncertainties of space systems under control,in a synchronous manner,as long as the appropriate models in the low-high thrusts are realized.展开更多
An improved Monte-Carlo method for the failure calculation of structure is proposed.The present method can determine whether some sample points are in the safe region without doing structural analysis,so the calculati...An improved Monte-Carlo method for the failure calculation of structure is proposed.The present method can determine whether some sample points are in the safe region without doing structural analysis,so the calculation work is greatly reduced compared with the ordinary M-C method.Finally,the new M-C method is applied to reliability analysis of frame and the torsional buckling reliability analysis of cylindrical shells.展开更多
For solving higher dimensional diffusion equations with an inhomogeneous diffusion coefficient,Monte Carlo(MC) techniques are considered to be more effective than other algorithms, such as finite element method or f...For solving higher dimensional diffusion equations with an inhomogeneous diffusion coefficient,Monte Carlo(MC) techniques are considered to be more effective than other algorithms, such as finite element method or finite difference method. The inhomogeneity of diffusion coefficient strongly limits the use of different numerical techniques. For better convergence, methods with higher orders have been kept forward to allow MC codes with large step size. The main focus of this work is to look for operators that can produce converging results for large step sizes. As a first step, our comparative analysis has been applied to a general stochastic problem.Subsequently, our formulization is applied to the problem of pitch angle scattering resulting from Coulomb collisions of charge particles in the toroidal devices.展开更多
基金Project(2018YFC1505401)supported by the National Key R&D Program of ChinaProject(41702310)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China+1 种基金Project(SKLGP2017K014)supported by the Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geo-environment Protection,ChinaProject(2018JJ3644)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China
文摘We proposed an enhanced image binarization method.The proposed solution incorporates Monte-Carlo simulation into the local thresholding method to address the essential issues with respect to complex background,spatially-changed illumination,and uncertainties of block size in traditional method.The proposed method first partitions the image into square blocks that reflect local characteristics of the image.After image partitioning,each block is binarized using Otsu’s thresholding method.To minimize the influence of the block size and the boundary effect,we incorporate Monte-Carlo simulation into the binarization algorithm.Iterative calculation with varying block sizes during Monte-Carlo simulation generates a probability map,which illustrates the probability of each pixel classified as foreground.By setting a probability threshold,and separating foreground and background of the source image,the final binary image can be obtained.The described method has been tested by benchmark tests.Results demonstrate that the proposed method performs well in dealing with the complex background and illumination condition.
基金The Project "Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System (PM57041)" funded by the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs of Korean Governmentthe Project "Cooperation on the Development of Basic Technologies for the Yellow Sea and East China Sea Operational Oceanographic System (YOOS)" funded by CKJORC and the Basic Research Projects (PE98731, PG47770 and PE98732) of the Korea Institute Ocean Science and Technologysupport by the PASCO Corporation,Japan is also apreciated
文摘An analysis of the radar backscattering from the ocean surface covered by oil spill is presented using a mi- crowave scattering model and Monte-Carlo simulation. In the analysis, a one-dimensional rough sea sur- face is numerically generated with an ocean waveheight spectrum for a given wind velocity. A two-layered medium is then generated by adding a thin oil layer on the simulated rough sea surface. The electric fields backscattered from the sea surface with two-layered medium are computed with the method of moments (MoM), and the backscattering coefficients are statistically obtained with N independent samples for each oil-spilled surface using the Monte-Carlo technique for various conditions of surface roughness, oil-layer thickness, frequency, polarization and incidence angle. The numerical simulation results are compared with theoretical models for clean sea surfaces and SAR images of an off-spilled sea surface caused by the Hebei (Hebei province, China) Spirit oil tanker in 2007. Further, conditions for better oil spill extraction are sought by the numerical simulation on the effects of wind speed and oil-layer thickness at different inci- dence angles on the backscattering coefficients.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50464004)
文摘A new hybrid method, Monte-Carlo-Heat-Flux (MCHF) method, was presented to analyze the radiative heat transfer of participating medium in a three-dimensional rectangular enclosure using combined the Monte-Carlo method with the heat flux method. Its accuracy and reliability was proved by comparing the computational results with exact results from classical "Zone Method".
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40730422)the Foundation of China University of Mining & Technology (No. OF061003)State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources (No. GPMR2007-11)
文摘Monte-Carlo method is used for estimating coalbed methane (CBM) resources in key coal mining areas of China. Monte-Carlo method is shown to be superior to the traditional volumetric method with constant parameters in the calculation of CBM resources. The focus of the article is to introduce the main algorithm and the realization of functions estimated by Monte-Carlo method, including selection of parameters, determination of distribution function, generation of pseudo-random numbers, and evaluation of the parameters corresponding to pseudo-random numbers. A specified software on the basis of Monte-Carlo method is developed using Visual C++ for the assessment of the CBM resources. A case study shows that calculation results using Monte-Carlo method have smaller error range in comparison with those using volumetric method.
文摘The following article has been retracted due to the investigation of complaints received against it. Mr. Mohammadali Ghorbani (corresponding author and also the last author) cheated the author’s name: Alireza Heidari. The scientific community takes a very strong view on this matter and we treat all unethical behavior such as plagiarism seriously. This paper published in Vol.3 No.3, 260-265, 2012, has been removed from this site.
基金Supported by Inner Mongolia Natural Science Foundation(200711020112)Innovation Fundation of Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology (2009NC064)~~
文摘Based on protein-DNA complex crystal structural data in up-to-date Nucleic Acid Database,the related parameters of DNA Kinetic Structure were investigated by Monte-Carlo Multiple Integrals on the base of modified DNA structure statistical mechanical model,and time complexity and precision were analyzed on the calculated results.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.10672060)
文摘Combined with current specifications and stress characteristics of concrete filled steel tubular (CFST) arch bridges, the determination principle of safe-middle-failure threestage mode is given. Accordingly, damage probability and failure probability and the corresponding reliability indices are calculated; a direct relationship between reliability indices and three-stage working status is made. Based on the three-stage working mode, a combined FNM (finite element-neural network- Monte-Carlo simulation) method is put forward to estimate the reliability of existing bridges. According to time-dependent reliability theory, subsequent service time is divided into several stages; minimum samples required by the Monte-Carlo method are generated by random sampling; training samples are calculated by the finite element method, and the training samples are extended by the neural network; failure probability and damage probability are calculated by the Monte-Carlo method. Thus, time dependent reliability indices are obtained, and the working status is judged. A case study is investigated to estimate the reliability of an actual bridge by the FNM method. The bridge is a CFST arch bridge with an 83.6 m span and it has been in operation for 10 years. According to analysis results, in the tenth year, the example bridge is still in safe status. This conclusion is consistent with the facts, which proves the feasibility of the FNM method for estimating the reliability of existing bridges.
文摘Based on the observation of importance sampling and second order information about the failure surface of a structure, an importance sampling region is defined in V-space which is obtained by rotating a U-space at the point of maximum likelihood. The sampling region is a hyper-ellipsoid that consists of the sampling ellipse on each plane of main curvature in V-space. Thus, the sampling probability density function can be constructed by the sampling region center and ellipsoid axes. Several examples have shown the efficiency and generality of this method.
基金Project Supported by Tsinghua Research Foundation (No. Jc2003010).
文摘This paper deals with the procedure and methodology which can be used to select the optimal treatment and disposal technology of municipal solid waste (MSW), and to provide practical and effective technical support to policy-making, on the basis of study on solid waste management status and development trend in China and abroad. Focusing on various treatment and disposal technologies and processes of MSW, this study established a Monte-Carlo mathematical model of cost minimization for MSW handling subjected to environmental constraints. A new method of element stream (such as C, H, O, N, S) analysis in combination with economic stream analysis of MSW was developed. By following the streams of different treatment processes consisting of various techniques from generation, separation, transfer, transport, treatment, recycling and disposal of the wastes, the element constitution as well as its economic distribution in terms of possibility functions was identified. Every technique step was evaluated economically. The Mont-Carlo method was then conducted for model calibration. Sensitivity analysis was also carried out to identify the most sensitive factors. Model calibration indicated that landfill with power generation of landfill gas was economically the optimal technology at the present stage under the condition of more than 58% of C, H, O, N, S going to landfill. Whether or not to generate electricity was the most sensitive factor. If landfilling cost increases, MSW separation treatment was recommended by screening first followed with incinerating partially and composting partially with residue landfilling. The possibility of incineration model selection as the optimal technology was affected by the city scale. For big cities and metropolitans with large MSW generation, possibility for constructing large-scale incineration facilities increases, whereas, for middle and small cities, the effectiveness of incinerating waste decreases.
基金supported by the National 973 Project of China (No. 2012CB026104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51378057)
文摘Prediction on the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields of embankment and cutting slopes is essential to the assessment on evolution of melting zone and natural permafrost table, which is usually a key factor for permafrost embankment design in frozen ground regions. The prediction may be further complicated due to the inherent uncertainties of material properties. Hence, stochastic analyses should be conducted. Firstly, Karhunen-Loeve expansion is applied to attain the random fields for hydraulic and thermal conductions. Next, the mixed-form modified Richards equation for mass transfer (i.e., mass equation) and the heat transport equation for heat transient flow in a variably saturated frozen soil are combined into one equation with temperature unknown. Furthermore, the finite element formulation for the coupled thermal-hydraulic fields is derived. Based on the random fields, the stochastic finite element analyses on stability of embankment are carried out. Numerical results show that stochastic analyses of embankment stability may provide a more rational picture for the distribution of factors of safety (FOS), which is definitely useful for embankment design in frozen ground regions.
基金Project(51606225) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2016JJ2144) supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(502221703) supported by Graduate Independent Explorative Innovation Foundation of Central South University,China
文摘An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.
文摘A Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate gradual fracture of fiber in a single filament composite with the increase of virtual stress. A simple computational algorithm is developed to judge where breaking point will happen in the composite and a probability model based on Weibull- distribution is designed to calculate the average fragment length by producing stable and uniform random number in (0, 1). Compared to the published experiment results, the simulating average fragment length is quite perfect.
文摘The Monte- Carlo method is used to simulate the surface fatigue crack growth rate for offshore structural steel E36-Z35, and to determine the distributions and relevance of the parameters in the Paris equation. By this method, the time and cost of fatigue crack propagation testing can be reduced. The application of the method is demonstrated by use of four sets of fatigue crack propagation data for offshore structural steel E36-Z35. A comparison of the test data with the theoretical prediction for surface crack growth rate shows the application of the simulation method to the fatigue crack propagation tests is successful.
文摘The paper presents a method of numerical solution of the Schrodinger equation, which combines the finite-difference and Monte-Carlo approaches. The resulting method was effective and economical and, to a certain extent, not improved, <em>i</em>.<em>e</em>. optimal. The method itself is formalized as an algorithm for the numerical solution of the Schrodinger equation for a molecule with an arbitrary number of quantum particles. The method is presented and simultaneously illustrated by examples of solving the one-dimensional and multidimensional Schrodinger equation in such problems: linear one-dimensional oscillator, hydrogen atom, ion and hydrogen molecule, water, benzene and metallic hydrogen.
文摘A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Marquardt Method (i. e.,Dampled Least Square Method) while initial values inoptimization are produced by Monte-Carlo Method. The Potential ofthe method as a parameter estimation aid is demonstrated for theapplication to the Liangyi Rver, JiangSu Province of China and by aspecial comparison with Gauss Method.
文摘Atomic growth process and structure of Amorphous Electroless Coating have been studied, using Monte-Carlo simulation method. The simulation results of amorphous Ni80P20 coating show that PDFs are in accordance with practical values. The migrations of adatoms in coating's growth are different from that of solidification of amorphous materials. In some cases, the migrated adatoms in the process of growth of amorphous coating are not enough to occupy all vacancies and traps, so the amorphous coating is micro-porous. The immovable probability k and the largest migration distance of adatoms, which lie on the electroless bath components, affect the PDF, volume density and microporosity remarkably.
文摘The present research relies on a cascade control approach through the Monte-Carlo based method in the presence of uncertainties to evaluate the performance of the real overactuated space systems.A number of potential investigations in this area are first considered to prepare an idea with respect to state-of-the-art.The insight proposed here is organized to present attitude cascade control approach including the low thrust in connection with the high thrust to be implemented,while the aforementioned Monte-Carlo based method is carried out to guarantee the approach performance.It is noted that the investigated outcomes are efficient to handle a class of space systems presented via the center of mass and the moments of inertial.And also a number of profiles for the thrust vector and the misalignments as the disturbances all vary in its span of nominal variations.The acquired results are finally analyzed in line with some well-known benchmarks to verify the approach efficiency.The key core of finding in the research is to propose a novel 3-axis control approach to deal with all the mentioned uncertainties of space systems under control,in a synchronous manner,as long as the appropriate models in the low-high thrusts are realized.
基金The proiect of the National Natnral Science Eoundation of China
文摘An improved Monte-Carlo method for the failure calculation of structure is proposed.The present method can determine whether some sample points are in the safe region without doing structural analysis,so the calculation work is greatly reduced compared with the ordinary M-C method.Finally,the new M-C method is applied to reliability analysis of frame and the torsional buckling reliability analysis of cylindrical shells.
基金supported in part by the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan under PPCR programsupported by the National Magnetic Confinement Fusion Program under Grant No.2013GB104004Fundamental Research Fund for Chinese Central Universities
文摘For solving higher dimensional diffusion equations with an inhomogeneous diffusion coefficient,Monte Carlo(MC) techniques are considered to be more effective than other algorithms, such as finite element method or finite difference method. The inhomogeneity of diffusion coefficient strongly limits the use of different numerical techniques. For better convergence, methods with higher orders have been kept forward to allow MC codes with large step size. The main focus of this work is to look for operators that can produce converging results for large step sizes. As a first step, our comparative analysis has been applied to a general stochastic problem.Subsequently, our formulization is applied to the problem of pitch angle scattering resulting from Coulomb collisions of charge particles in the toroidal devices.