Analysis of debris flow control effect and hazard assessment in Xinqiao Gully,Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake area based on numerical simulation

Xinqiao Gully is located in the area of the 2008 Wenchuan M_(s)8.0 earthquake in Sichuan province,China.Based on the investigation of the 2023"6-26"Xinqiao Gully debris flow event,this study assessed the effectiveness of the debris flow control project and evaluated the debris flow hazards.Through field investigation and numerical simulation methods,the indicators of flow intensity reduction rate and storage capacity fullness were proposed to quantify the effectiveness of the engineering measures in the debris flow event.The simulation results show that the debris flow control project reduced the flow intensity by41.05%to 64.61%.The storage capacity of the dam decreases gradually from upstream to the mouth of the gully,thus effectively intercepting and controlling the debris flow.By evaluating the debris flow of different recurrence intervals,further measures are recommended for managing debris flow events.

Astronomic background of global huge earthquakes at beginning of 21st century

Since the beginning of the 21st century,major earthquakes have frequently occurred worldwide.To explore the impact of astronomical factors on earthquakes,in this study,the statistical analysis method of correlation is used to systematically analyze the effects of astronomical factors,such as solar activity,Earth’s rotation,lunar declination angle,celestial tidal force,and other phenomena on M≥8 global earthquakes at the beginning of the 21st century.With regard to solar activity,this study focuses on the analysis of the 11-year and century cycles of solar activity.The causal relationship of the Earth’s rotation is not obvious in this work and previous works;in contrast,the valley period of the solar activity century cycle may be an important astronomical factor leading to the frequent occurrence of global earthquakes at the beginning of the 21st century.This topic warrants further study.

A swallow-tail type catastrophic model of earthquake process

This paper considers the effects of damage softening and hydraulic softening on fault zone media and provides a nonlinear mechanics model of fault earthquake. Taking far field displacement,stiffness ratio and permeation parameter as control variables, we obtain a swallowtail type catastrophic model of earthquakes. Then, by this model, we study the effects of permeation, far field displacement and stiffness ratio on the preparation and the occurrence of earthquakes.

Surface Rupture and Co-seismic Displacement Produced by the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake of May ^(12)th,2008,Sichuan,China:Eastwards Growth of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

An earthquake of Ms 8 struck Wenchuan County, western Sichuan, China, on May 12^th, 2008 and resulted in long surface ruptures （〉300 km）. The first-hand observations about the surface ruptures produced by the earthquake in the worst-hit areas of Yingxiu, Beichuan and Qingchuan, ascertained that the causative structure of the earthquake was in the central fault zones of the Longmenshan tectonic belt. Average co-seismic vertical displacements along the individual fault of the Yingxiu-Beiehuan rupture zone reach 2.514 m and the cumulative vertical displacements across the central and frontal Longmenshan fault belt is about 5-6 m. The surface rupture strength was reduced from north of Beichuan to Qingchuan County and shows 2-3 m dextral strike-slip component. The Wenchuan thrust-faulting earthquake is a manifestation of eastward growth of the Tibetan Plateau under the action of continuous convergence of the Indian and Eurasian continents.

Preliminary Results of In-situ Stress Measurements along the Longmenshan Fault Zone after the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake

Four months after the Wenchuan Ms 8 earthquake in western Sichuan, China, in situ stress measurements were carried out along the Longmenshan fault zone with the purpose of obtaining stress parameters for earthquake hazard assessment. In-situ stresses were measured in three new boreholes by using overcoring with the piezomagnetic stress gauges for shallow depths and hydraulic fracturing for lower depths. The maximum horizontal stress in shallow depths （-20 m） is about 4.3 MPa, oriented N19°E, in the epicenter area at Yingxiu Town, about 9.7 MPa, oriented N51°W, at Baoxing County in the southwestern Longmenshan range, and about 2.6 MPa, oriented N39°E, near Kangding in the southernmost zone of the Longmenshan range. Hydraulic fracturing at borehole depths from 100 to 400 m shows a tendency towards increasing stress with depth. A comparison with the results measured before the Wenchuan earthquake along the Longmenshan zone and in the Tibetan Plateau demonstrates that the stress level remains relatively high in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan range, and is still moderate in the epicenter zone. These results provide a key appraisal for future assessment of earthquake hazards of the Longmenshan fault zone and the aftershock occurrences of the Wenchuan earthquake.

Dextral-Slip Thrust Faulting and Seismic Events of the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake,Longmenshan Mountains,Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Dextral-slip thrust movement of the Songpan-Garze terrain over the Sichuan block caused the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 and offset the Central Longmenshan Fault （CLF） along a distance of -250 km. Displacement along the CLF changes from Yingxiu to Qingchuan. The total oblique slip of up to 7.6 m in Yingxiu near the epicenter of the earthquake, decreases northeastward to 5.3 m, 6.6 m, 4.4 m, 2.5 m and 1.1 m in Hongkou, Beichuan, Pingtong, Nanba and Qingchuan, respectively. This offset apparently occurred during a sequence of four reported seismic events, EQ1-EQ4, which were identified by seismic inversion of the source mechanism. These events occurred in rapid succession as the fault break propagated northeastward during the earthquake. Variations in the plunge of slickensides along the CLF appear to match these events. The Mw 7.5 EQ1 event occurred during the first 0-10 s along the Yingxiu-Hongkou section of the CLF and is characterized by 1.7 m vertical slip and vertical slickensides. The Mw 8.0 EQ2 event, which occurred during the next 10-42 s along the Yingxiu-Yanziyan section of the CLF, is marked by major dextralslip with minor thrust and slickensides plunging 25°-35° southwestward. The Mw 7.5 EQ3 event occurred during the following 42-60 s and resulted in dextral-slip and slickensides plunging 10° southwestward in Beichuan and plunging 73° southwestward in Hongkou. The Mw 7.7 EQ4 event, which occurred during the final 60-95 s along the Beichuan-Qingchuan section of the CLF, is characterized by nearly equal values of dextral and vertical slips with slickensides plunging 45°-50° southwestward. These seismic events match and evidently controlled the concentrations of landslide dams caused by the Wenchuan earthquake in Longmenshan Mountains.

Tectonic Stress State Changes Before and After the Wenchuan M_s 8.0 Earthquake in the Eastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

Crustal tectonic activities are essentially the consequences of the accumulation and release of in situ stress. Therefore, studying the stress state near active faults is important for understanding crustal dynamics and earthquake occurrences. In this paper, using in situ stress measurement results obtained by hydraulic fracturing in the vicinity of the Longmenshan fault zone before and after the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake and finite element modeling, the variation of stress state before and after the Wenchuan M. 8.0 earthquake is investigated. The results show that the shear stress, which is proportional to the difference between principal stresses, increases with depth and distance from the active fault in the calm period or after the earthquakes, and tends to approach to the regional stress level outside the zone influenced by the fault. This distribution appears to gradually reverse with time and the change of fault properties such as frictional strength. With an increase in friction coefficient, low stress areas are reduced and areas with increased stress accumulation are more obvious near the fault. In sections of the fault with high frictional strengths, in situ stress clearly increases in the fault. Stress accumulates more rapidly in the fault zone relative to the surrounding areas, eventually leading to a stress field that peaks at the fault zone. Such a reversal in the stress field between the fault zone and surrounding areas in the magnitude of the stress field is a potential indicator for the occurrence of strong earthquakes.

Analysis of the Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake's Co-seismic Stress and Displacement Change by Using the Finite Element Method

The variation of in situ stress before and after earthquakes is an issue studied by geologists. In this paper, on the basis of the fault slip dislocation model of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake, the changes of co-seismic displacement and the distribution functions of stress tensor around the Longmen Shan fault zone are calculated. The results show that the co-seismic maximum surface displacement is 4.9 m in the horizontal direction and 6.5 m in the vertical direction, which is almost consistent with the on-site survey and GPS observations. The co-seismic maximum horizontal stress in the hanging wall and footwall decreased sharply as the distance from the Longmen Shan fault zone increased. However, the vertical stress and minimum horizontal stress increased in the footwall and in some areas of the hanging wall. The study of the co-seismic displacement and stress was mainly focused on the long and narrow region along the Longmen Shan fault zone, which coincides with the distribution of the earthquake aftershocks. Therefore, the co-seismic stress only affects the aftershocks, and does not affect distant faults and seismic activities. The results are almost consistent with in situ stress measurements at the two sites before and after Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. Along the fault plane, the co-seismic shear stress in the dip direction is larger than that in the strike direction, which indicates that the faulting mechanism of the Longmen Shan fault zone is a dominant thrust with minor strike-slipping. The results can be used as a reference value for future studies of earthquake mechanisms.

Anomalous phenomena in DC–ULF geomagnetic daily variation registered three days before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan M_S 8.0 earthquake

The hourly data of the vertical Z and the horizontal H components of 37 ground-based DC-ULF geomagnetic stations are examined during 20 April-12 May 2008. On 9 May 2008, three days before the Wenchuan MS 8.0 shock, anomalies-a double low-point and a decreased amplitude-are registered on the curves of the Z component at 25 stations in a large-scale area surrounding the Wenchuan epicentral area. The H component shows none of the double low-point phenomenon but does exhibit a reduced magnitude at the same time. The geomagnetic index Kp is also examined and indicates that the anomalies appear at a solar quiet period. The appearing time shift(Tzs) between the first low-point on May 9 and the minimum point occurring time of May 1-5, 2008 is also checked.The results show that Tzs is on the order of 1-2 hours earlier or later than usual and there is a 2-6 hours’ gap between these two lowpoints. However, there is still a transition area which includes the epicenter where Tzs=0. Variation amplitude examined on vertical Z increases as the distance from the epicenter decreases. An Earth-air-ionosphere model has been employed to investigate a possible mechanism of this phenomenon and positive results have been unexpectedly attained. All these above-related results tend to prove that the variations of the Z and H on May 9, 2008 during the solar quiet period are probably associated with the forthcoming Wenchuan MS 8.0 earthquake.

Co- and post-seismic vertical displacements of Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake near Beichuan

Co- and post-seismic vertical displacements of the Wenchuan earthquake derived from two measurements in 2008 and 2010 along two partly-damaged leveling lines near the epicenter show the following features： Co-seismic displacement at Beichuan-Yingxiu fault was as large as 4. 711 m near Beichuan, where the maximum observed fault offset was 5.1 m. In contrast, the observed co-seismic offset of the Qingchuan fault in Pingwu County was only 0. 064 m. During 2008 - 2010, the post-seismic displacement rate was 5 - 27 mm/a near Beichuan-Yingxiu fault in Beichuan area, 20.6 mrn/a at Jiangyou-Guangyuan fault near Dakang, and only 0.2 - 1.3 mm/a at Qingehuan fault near Gucheng.

Preparatory mechanism of Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake evidenced by crust-deformation data

Some crustal-deformation data related to the Ms8.0 Wenchuan in 2008, was described and a model that is capable of explaining the observed deformation features is presented. The data include ： pre-earthquake uplift in an area south of the epicenter obtained by repeated-leveling measurements ; pre-earthquake horizontal deformation by GPS observation during two periods in Sichuan-Yunnan area;vertical deformation along a short cross-fault leveling line in the epicenter area; and co-seismic near-field vertical and horizontal crustal-move- ment data by GPS. The model is basically ＂elastic-rebound＂, but involves a zone between two local faults that was squeezed out at the time of earthquake. ：

Mercury indicating inflow zones and ruptures along the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake fault

During the Wenchuan Fault Scientific Drilling Project,we determined the values of total mercury(HgT)and gaseous elemental mercury(GEM) from drilled cores and drilling mud,respectively.Geochemical analysis shows HgT values ranging from 0.24 to 6.45 ng/g for the Penguan complex and from 2.90 to 137.54 ng/g for T3 sediment.The average levels of HgT for the Penguan complex and T3 sediments are 1.81 ± 0.26 ng/g and23.96 ± 4.80 ng/g,respectively.Major anomalous peaks of HgT appear at depth of 614,731,993 and 1,107 m,which correspond to the long-term high seismic activity during crustal deformation in response to tectonic stresses.Gaseous elemental mercury dissolved in drilling mud was also analyzed.We found fluid inflow zones with high GEM at depths of 590-750 m,suggesting that fluid-filled ruptures exist in the LMS fault zone.It indicates that mercury provides geochemical evidence for inflow zones and ruptures/fault zones in the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake fault.

Anomalous tremor before 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake: a review

In this paper we give a review of several previously published papers on anomalous tremors observed before the 2008 Ms8.0 Weuchuan earthquake. Based on the observed time and frequency shifts between coastal and inland stations, we discussed some methods to distinguish different kinds of microseisms, and speculated that a pre-earthquake typhoon might have caused a ＂mainland-originated microseism＂ which in turn trig- gered the earthquake.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of VTEC anomalies before Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake

GPS and the COD VTEC data were studied in search of ionospheric VTEC changes in space and time that might be associated with the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake on 12 May,2008. The result shows several significant anomalous decreases at 12：00 UT- 16：00 UT on April 29 and an anomalously increase at 14：00 UT - 18：00 UT on May 9. The anomalies had two humps, that were located on both sides of the geomagnetic equator and had a tendency of drifting towards the equator. Since the observed anomalies cannot be attributed to any other causes and since they occurred close to the time of the earthquake, we consider them to be possibly premonitory to the earthquake.

Research on the Dynamic Change of Regional Stress Fields before the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

Using the digital telemetric seismic waveform data of Chengdu and Kunming, this article studies the focal mechanism solutions and the apparent stress values of a large number of small earthquakes, and then analyzes the dynamic variation of regional stress fields and the spatio- temporal distribution of apparent stress values. The annual variation values of the azimuth of average principal stress field before the May 12, 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in the Sichuan-Yunnan region were 58° from 2003 to 2004, 85° from 2003 to 2005,61° from 2006 to 2007 and 90° from 2006 to April 2008 respectively. In recent years, deflection or disturbances occurred in the azimuth of the average principal stress field in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Analysis shows that this may be related to the change of stress field states of crustal blocks before and after the December 26, 2004 Ms9.0 Sumatra earthquake and the 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. The ratio of thrust-type earthquakes in the Sichnan-Qinghai block was on the higher side in the period from 2006 to 2007, and the source faulting type of the regional moderate and small earthquakes had changed before the Ms8.0 Wenchnan earthquake. The change of state of the stress field is consistent with the changes in block displacement fields revealed by GPS data and the crustal shortening velocity vertical to the Longmenshan fault zone. Based on the radiation energy calculated from all bands of the seismic waveform, the value of apparent stress σapp is obtained. The fluctuation shape of the fitting trend of the apparent stress is related to the intensity of regional seismicity. It reveals that the micro- dynamic fluctuation process of the regional stress value is similar to the azimuth transition of the regional principal compressive stress field, which can be used to probe for pregnant physical processes. Areas with a higher value of apparent stress σapp are possible areas of potential seismic risk. It can be seen from the spatial distribution of the medium and shortterm apparent stress σapp before the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, the Longmenshan fault zone is in a low stress distribution area, and the relatively high apparent stress is in the peripheral area. These images may show medium and short-term locking phenomena near the seismogenic tectonics of the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. For example, changes with time of the focal parameter consistency of the sub-blocks in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, continual increase of thrust-type earthquakes in the Sichuan-Qinghai block and the appearance of spatial distribution areas of high apparent σapp stress. The work on this aspect was continued after the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, and the results seem to be shown a clearer relationship between these phenomena and future great earthquakes.

The Dynamic Characteristics of Strain Fields and Crustal Movement before the Wenchuan Earthquake (M_S=8.0)

In this paper, we analyze the crustal movements, strain field changes and large scale dynamic characteristics of horizontal deformation before the Wenchuan earthquake （ Ms = 8.0） using GPS data obtained from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China. The following issues are discussed. First, the strain fields of the Longmeushan fault zone located at the epicenter show slow accumulation, because of the tectonic dynamics process subjected to the eastward movement of the Bayan Har block. Second, the different movements between the Longmenshan fault and South China block are smaller than the errors of GPS observation. Third, the high value of compressive strain （2004 - 2007） is located at the epicenter, which shows that the local squeezing action is stronger than before. Fourth, the data from GPS reference stations in the Chinese Mainland show that crustal shortening is faster than before in the north-eastern direction, which is part of the background of the local tectonic dynamics increase in the Longmenshan fault zone.

Exploration of Suspected Surface Ruptures of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake at Frontal Areas of Longmenshan Using Shallow Seismic Reflection

The great M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008 was generated by abrupt faulting in the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault along the Longmenshan fault zone. The earthquake not only produced surface ruptures along the Yingxiu-Beichuan and Guanxian-Jiangyou faults,but also surface ruptures,arching of highway pavement,sand-boils and waterspouts in various degrees in areas such as Shifang and Mianzhu on the Chengdu Plain. To understand the shallow geological structures under the surface rupture zone,a 6350m long high-resolution shallow seismic reflection profile in near-EW direction was performed. This profile is located at Shigu town,Shifang city,where a suspected earthquake surface rupture zone was discovered. In this study,a group interval of 3m,shotpoint interval of 18m,and a 300-channel 25-fold observation system were used. In consideration of both near-surface reflections and dipping interface imaging,we adopted the split-spread geometry and asymmetrical zero-offset receiving technique. To better suppress random-noise and raise the signal-to-noise ratio of seismic data,30 times vertical stacking of vibrator signals was made for each common-shot gather after correlation of individual records. By using the above work method and spread geometry,we obtained high-resolution images of structures in the depth range of 15m～800m after data processing. The result shows the existence of buried thrust faults thrusting to the plain area and back-thrust faults under the surface rupture zone. It also shows that the activity of the buried thrust faults may be the main cause for folding and deformation in near-surface strata and coseismic surface rupturing.

Improvement of instantaneous positioning by spatial stacking and modified sidereal filtering methods with application to the 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

We obtained several displacement time series from the Sichuan permanent GPS net and processed the 1-Hz data observed during a few days before the 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake by double-difference instantaneous positioning technique. We filtered the data by the spatial stacking and the modified sidereal filte- ring methods to reduce correlation bias in space and time. The results indicate that these methods can improve the precision significantly.

Characteristics of the May 12,2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake Sequence and Discussion on Relevant Problems

The aftershock activity of the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 Earthquake Sequence shows an obvious segmented feature. Most of the large aftershocks were distributed in the north and south parts of the aftershock zone. Thrusting was dominant with a small amount of strike-slip component in the south part. The aftershock activity decayed gradually, presenting the sequence features of a mainshock-aftershock pattern. The north part was the ending area of the malnshock fracture where strike-slipping was dominant, showing an obvious swarm feature. Therefore it became the major area for large aftershocks. The modulation of the earth tide on aftershock activity is remarkable; most large aftershocks occur during the period of flood and neap tide. The time period around 16：00 was the dominant occurring time for large aftershocks. The p-value, a parameter of modified Omori formula, increases gradually with time, and reaches about 1 at the end. Based on previous study, the sequence patterns, magnitude of maximum aftershock, as well as the duration of aftershock activity has been discussed. The primary results also show that the magnitude difference between the maiushock and the maximum aftershock is proportional to the rupture size of the maiushock for huge earthquakes of about Ms8.0. This means that when the magnitudes of the earthquakes are nearly the same, large rupture size corresponds to sufficient energy release.

Analysis of main shock of thrust fault earthquake by catastrophe theory

The relationship between work and energy increment of a thrust fault system with quasi-static deformation can be decomposed into two parts： volume strain energy and deviation stress energy. The relationship between work and energy increment of the deviation stress of a simplified thrust fault system is analyzed based on the catastrophe theory. The research indicates that the characteristics displayed by the fold catastrophe model can appropriately describe the condition of earthquake generation, the evolvement process of main shock of thrust fault earthquake, and some important aftershock proper- ties. The bigger the surrounding press of surrounding rock is, the bigger the maximum principal stress is, the smaller the incidences of the potential thrust fault surface are, and the smaller the ratio between the tangential stiffness of surrounding rock and the slope is, which is at the inflexion point on the softened zone of the fault shearing strength curve. Thus, when earthquake occurrs, the larger the elastic energy releasing amount of sur- rounding rock is, the bigger the earthquake magnitude is, the larger the half distance of fault dislocation is, and the larger the displacement amplitude of end face of surrounding rock is. Fracturing and expanding the fault rock body and releasing the volume strain energy of surrounding rock during the earthquake can enhance the foregoing effects to- gether.