Multi-factor analysis of initial poor graft function after orthotopic liver transplantation

BACKGROUND: In the early period of orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT), initial poor graft function (IPGF) is one of the complications which leads to primary graft non-function (PGNF) in serious cases. This study set out to establish the clinical risk factors resulting in IPGF after OLT. METHODS: Eighty cases of OLT were analyzed. The IPGF group consisted of patients with alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and/or aspartate aminotransferase (AST) above 1500 IU/L within 72 hours after OLT, while those in the non-IPGF group had values below 1500 IU/L. Recipient-associated factors before OLT analyzed were age, sex, primary liver disease and Child-Pugh classification; factors analyzed within the peri-operative period were non-heart beating time (NHBT), cold ischemia time (CIT), rewarming ischemic time (RWIT), liver biopsy at the end of cold ischemia; and factors analyzed within 72 hours after OLT were ALT and/or AST values. A logistic regression model was applied to filter the possible factors resulting in IPGF. RESULTS: Donor NHBT, CIT and RWIT were significantly longer in the IPGF group than in the non-IPGF group; in the logistic regression model, NHBT was the risk factor leading to IPGF (P < 0.05), while CIT and RWIT were possible risk factors. In one case in the IPGF group, PGNF appeared with moderate hepatic steatosis. CONCLUSIONS: Longer NHBT is an important risk factor leading to IPGF, while serious steatosis in the donor liver, CIT and RWIT are potential risk factors.

Multi-factor Analysis Model for Improving Profit Management Using Excel in Shellfish Farming Projects

By using a farm's data in Yantai City and the theory of Cost-Volume-Profit analysis and the financial management methods,this paper construct a multi-factor analysis model for improving profit management using Excel 2007 in Shellfish farming projects and describes the procedures to construct a multi-factor analysis model.The model can quickly calculate the profit,improve the level of profit management,find out the breakeven point and enhance the decision-making efficiency of businesses etc.It is also a thought of the application to offer suggestions for government decisions and economic decisions for corporations as a simple analysis tool.While effort has been exerted to construct a four-variable model,some equally important variables may not be discussed sufficiently due to limitation of the paper's space and the authors'knowledge.All variables can be listed in EXCEL 2007 and can be associated in a logical way to manage the profit of shellfish farming projects more efficiently and more practically.

Analysis on the Seismic Response of Soil Slopes Based on the Multi-point Input Method

In general, the seismic response analysis in earthquake engineering assumes that the vibration parameters of the target and the contact surface of the external media are identical,i. e., single point input. However, earthquake energy has an attenuation phenomenon in wave propagation,so a wide range of soil slopes and the external medium contact surface of different input points on motion are not identical. If we consider single point input only, it may not correspond with reality, so it is necessary to carry out research on multi-point input methods. Based on the 2-D slope model,single-point input and multi-point input are performed respectively to analyze and compare their similarities and differences in the perspectives of the characteristics of seismic response of soil layer and plastic zone distribution to provide a reference for the seismic design of slopes. The results show that in the perspective of soil seismic response analysis,the peak acceleration output and peak velocity output under multi-point input are greater than the peak values under single point input at the same monitoring point,the peak appearing time is also earlier than that of the single point input; in terms of the plastic zone distribution,the multi-point effect is manifested as the presence of more obvious tensile shear failures; in the perspective of safety coefficient,the safety coefficient under each multi-point input is smaller than that of single point input,a difference of about 7 % or so. In summary,multi-point input is more reasonable and practical than single point input,so multi-point input should be considered in seismic design.

水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调及驱动力分析

为加深对我国水资源、能源、粮食、生态系统协同演变趋势的认识,构建水资源-能源-粮食-生态多维系统指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型对我国2005—2020年水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调度进行评价,并采用多因素归因分析法进行驱动力分析。结果表明:我国水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统耦合协调度从2005年的0.55增长到2020年的0.84,各地区耦合协调度从勉强协调发展水平过渡到中级协调发展水平,各子系统对耦合协调度上升的驱动分别经历了由粮食子系统到生态子系统再到水资源子系统主导的过程;能源子系统的贡献率虽然比较小,但是未来可能是各地区提升水资源-能源-粮食-生态系统多维系统协调发展水平的突破口。

一测多评法测定法制半夏曲中11种成分含量及其GRA、EW-TOPSIS质量评价

目的采用一测多评(QAMS)法同时测定法制半夏曲中肌苷、鸟苷、腺苷等11种成分含量,并建立其灰色关联度分析(GRA)联合熵权逼近理想解排序分析法(EW-TOPSIS)综合质量评价方法。方法采用Shimadzu C 18色谱柱;乙腈-0.5%醋酸为流动相,梯度洗脱,流速1.0 mL·min-1;检测波长254和290 nm。以对甲氧基肉桂酸乙酯为内参比物质,计算其他10个成分的相对校正因子(RCF),测定各成分含量。采用GRA联合EW-TOPSIS模型对法制半夏曲进行综合质量评价。结果法制半夏曲中11种成分在一定浓度范围内线性关系良好,相关系数均>0.999;平均加样回收率96.94%~100.12%(RSD<2.0%,n=9);QAMS与外标法(ESM)实测值无明显差异。GRA模型相对关联度0.2903~0.6187,EW-TOPSIS模型相对接近度0.2114~0.6343;GRA和EW-TOPSIS模型综合评价结果基本一致。结论QAMS法便捷、准确,可用于法制半夏曲多指标成分定量控制,GRA联合EW-TOPSIS模型可用于法制半夏曲综合质量评价。

ANALYSIS OF PSYCHOLOGIC HEALTH STATE AND INFLUENCING FACTORS IN COLLEGE AND SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS IN SHAANXI PROVINCE

Objective The psychologic health level of college and secondaryschool students and the relevant factors were investigated to scientific basis and guidance for school mental health work.Methods Standard 1251 cases were drawn from 1‰ of students in colleges and middle schools of Shaanxi province.Taking 14 psychic health level indexes in SCL 90 as dependent variable and 109 indexes of psychic health back ground as in dependent variable, multi factor analyses have been made.Results 22.6% of students had relatively serious psychological problems.The score of SCL 90 in females was a little bit higher than that in males.The scores of students at both universities and senior middle schools were higher than that in junior middle schools students.The score of SCL 90 of students who came from the countryside was higher than that of city students.The score of the whole students was higher than that of the normal.The students with psychic problems showed obsession,interpersonal sensitivity,depression,anxiety,paranoia and hostility.Factor analysis showed that influencing factors included history of positive individual risking behavior,physical conditions,grade,address,family influences,menses and sexual prombles,bad relation with others,poor self assessment.Conclusion The psychologic health level of the students investigated is lower than that of the whole society.The factors,which hamper psychic health of students, are biological,psychological and social in nature.

Effect of Multi-parameter Environmental Factors on Cucumber Leaf Surface Wetness

In this study, artificial leaf resistance was used to simulate leaf wetness. Specific to the solar greenhouse environment in Tianjin, microclimate monitoring equipment was installed for the collection of temperature group and humidity group data, as well as solar radiation and leaf wetness in the greenhouse. In order to reduce the complexity of multivariate factor prediction and ensure the richness of selected data types, correlation analysis was made to the 2 groups of data, screening 5 000 groups of data, including the humidity group data RH, RH_(20), RH_(40), temperature group data T, T_(20), T_(40), and solar radiation W. The data were then analyzed by principal component analysis, screening out 4 groups of principal components to show the leaf wetness index.

零碳排放下电-气综合能源系统多能负荷预测

电-气综合能源系统中多能负荷之间的耦合程度不断增加,提升了能源系统调度和运行的难度。为此,对零碳排放下电-气综合能源系统多能负荷预测方法进行了研究。分析零碳排放下电-气综合能源系统的运行架构。以气象因素为影响因子,运用灰色关联度分析法获得多能负荷与各因子的相关性。将相关性分析结果与系统历史多能负荷数据共同作为输入数据,构建基础长短期记忆(LSTM)预测模型。结合樽海鞘群算法(SSA)优化模型关键参数,获得优化LSTM预测模型,实现系统多能负荷预测。试验结果表明:冷负荷与电负荷的关联度为0.88;热负荷与电负荷的关联度为0.681;实际预测平均绝对百分误差低于0.45。该方法预测效果理想,为系统最优调度与运行规划奠定了基础。

Logistic Regression Analysis of Influencing Factors on Serum ALT and HCV RNA Changes in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C

Objective This study was undertaken to investigate the influencing factors on serum ALT level and hepatitis C virus(HCV)RNA titer in chronic hepatitis C(CHC)patients.Methods All patients enrolled into this study were anti-HCV positive.Retrospective tracing method was applied to detect serum ALT level and HCV RNA titer and to collect general information of the patients such as genders,age groups,interferon medication history,infection pathways,height and weight.Then the multi-factor analysis was adopted with the application of binominal logistic regression mode.Results The abnormal rate of ALT level was positively correlated to HCV RNA and gender while negatively correlated to interferon medication history and age group,with Wald value of the 4 factors as 39.604,11.823,18.991 and 7.389,respectively.The positive rate of HCV RNA was negatively correlated to interferon medication history and gender while positively correlated to ALT level,with corresponding Wald value of the 3 factors as81.394,7.618 and 27.562,respectively.Conclusions The normal ALT level in HCV infected patients was associated with viral load,age,gender and interferon medication history,while the normal rate of HCV RNA titer was closely associated with gender,interferon medication history and ALT level.

山东省庆云县2020年-2022年育龄女性孕前保健知识知晓率及其影响因素调查

目的探讨与调查2020年—2022年山东省庆云县育龄女性孕前保健知识知晓率及其影响因素。方法采取便利整群抽样的方法,选取2020年1月—2022年12月在庆云县妇幼保健院进行调查的山东省庆云县孕前育龄女性2883例作为研究对象,调查所有育龄女性的一般资料、保健需求评分、保健知识知晓情况并进行相关性与多因素分析。结果在2883例育龄女性中,对孕前保健概况、孕前保健预防知识、孕前相关疾病治疗知识、孕前保健危险因素的知晓率等孕前保健知识知晓率为92.4%。2883例育龄女性对于生殖安全性、生殖健康教育、生殖健康行为、生殖健康态度等保健需求评分总分为(9.83±0.24)分。Pearson分析显示山东省庆云县2020年—2022年育龄女性孕前保健需求总分与年龄、文化程度、职业状态、来源地等存在相关性(P<0.05)。多元逐步回归分析显示,年龄、文化程度、职业状态、来源地都为影响育龄女性孕前保健服务需求总分的重要因素(P<0.05)。结论山东省庆云县2020年—2022年育龄女性孕前保健知识的知晓率有待提高,保健需求愿望比较强烈,年龄、文化程度、职业状态、来源地都为影响育龄女性孕前保健服务需求总分的重要因素。

A comparative study on crash-influencing factors by facility types on urban expressway

This study aims at identifying crash-influencing factors by facility type of Nagoya Urban Expressway, considering the interaction of geometry, traffic flow, and ambient conditions. Crash rate （CR） model is firstly developed separately at four facility types： basic, merge, and diverge segments and sharp curve. Traffic flows are thereby categorized, and based on the traffic categories, the significances of factors affecting crashes are analyzed by principal component analysis. The results reveal that, the CR at merge segment is significantly higher than those at basic and diverge segments in uncongested flow, while the value is not significantly different at the three facility types in congested flow. In both un- and congested flows, sharp curve has the worst safety performance in view of its highest CR. Regarding influencing factors, geometric design and traffic flow are most significant in un- and congested flows, respectively. As mainline flow increases, the effect of merging ratio affecting crash is on the rise at basic and merge segments as opposed to the decreasing significance of diverging ratio at diverge segment. Mean- while, longer acceleration and deceleration lanes are adverse to safety in uncongested flow, while shorter acceleration and deceleration lanes are adverse in congested flow. Due to its special geometric design, crashes at sharp curve are highly associated with the large centrifugal force and heavy restricted visibility.

基于多因素-多尺度分析的阶跃型滑坡位移预测

为了定量分析阶跃型滑坡位移与诱发因素之间的时滞效应,提高位移预测精度,本文提出新的预测模型并进行对比分析。首先基于时间序列分析将滑坡累计位移分离为趋势项和周期项;然后采用最大信息系数(Cmi)、多元经验模态分解(MEMD)方法进行多因素分析和多尺度分析,构建出多因素-多尺度MEMD预测模型;最后以三峡库区八字门滑坡为例,通过Cmi选取最优滞后期的诱发因素作为模型输入,在用MEMD方法分解多元序列的基础上建立时间多尺度模型,并与单因素-单尺度模型、多因素-单尺度模型及单因素-多尺度EMD(经验模态分解)模型进行对比。结果表明:八字门滑坡降雨和库水位的最优滞后期分别为2 d和4 d;滑坡多元序列经MEMD方法分解后得到3组模态函数,每组均有7个分量,各对应分量的时间尺度一致,其中周期项位移受诱发因素的响应具有时间多尺度特性;多因素-多尺度MEMD预测模型的均方根误差相较于以上3种对比模型分别平均降低49.4%、36.9%和27.4%,平均绝对百分比误差分别平均降低38.0%、26.4%和15.8%。

重症吉兰-巴雷综合征电生理特征以及预后不良相关因素分析

目的分析重症吉兰-巴雷综合征(GBS)患者的电生理特征和引起患者预后不良的相关因素,并评价神经电生理对预后不良的预测价值。方法选取2020年3月-2022年5月收治于我院的78例GBS患者的临床资料,根据病情严重程度分为轻症组(n=52)和重症组(n=26),另根据预后情况分为良好组(n=45)和不良组(n=33);分别对比不同组别的临床资料,比较不同病情程度患者神经电生理特征,对引起预后不良的相关因素进行多因素分析,构建列线图预测模型并进行验证;通过对患者病变特征(ROC)曲线分析电生理特征对预后不良的预测价值。结果比较病情严重程度不同的两组患者的临床资料发现,重症组患者面瘫、胸闷、腹泻、机械通气、自主神经功能障碍、合并其他自身免疫性疾病的发生率显著高于轻症组患者(P<0.05);通过比较两组患者电生理特征发现,重症组的腓总神经传导速率和胫神经运动传导速率显著低于轻症组,而F波异常率和远端复合肌肉动作电位波幅(dCMAP)波幅异常率则显著高于轻症组(P<0.05);单因素以及多因素结果说明,入院前病程>2周、脑脊液蛋白升高、入院时医学研究委员会肌力评分(MRC-Score)≤30、机械通气、合并其他自身免疫性疾病、腓总神经传导速率减慢、胫神经运动传导速率减慢、F波异常率增加、dCMAP波幅异常率增加以及轴索型损伤均为影响预后不良的危险因素(OR值均大于1,P<0.05);列线图预测模型总分613分,对应预后不良概率为74.56%,具有良好的区分度、准确度和有效性;ROC曲线获得腓总神经传导速率、胫神经运动传导速率、F波异常率、dCMAP波幅异常率四者联合预测的ROC曲线下面积、阳/阴性预测值、灵敏度、特异度均明显高于单独预测,具有更优的预测效能。结论分析重症GBS患者的电生理特征有利于对患者病情严重程度进行更清楚的了解,对预后不良具有十分重要的预测价值,值得在临床上推广应用。

基于HPLC-QAMS法多成分含量测定结合化学计量学评价半夏天麻丸质量的研究

目的建立多指标结合化学计量学综合分析半夏天麻丸成分质量及关键指标的方法,为其质量评价提供科学依据。方法采用高效液相色谱一测多评(high performance liquid chromatography-quantitative analysis of multi-components by single-marker,HPLC-QAMS)法建立12批半夏天麻丸11种成分含量测定方法,运用SPSS 26.0和SIMCA 14.0软件对以上指标进行聚类分析(clustering analysis,CA)、主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)及偏最小二乘-判别分析(partial least squares-discriminant analysis,PLS-DA),通过对12批产品的分析,综合评价半夏天麻丸质量及标志性成分。结果建立的11种成分含量测定方法稳定性较好。CA分析可将12批样品聚为三大类,2个主成分可代表11种成分92.142%的信息量,可用2个主成分对半夏天麻丸进行综合评价。根据PLS-DA结果分析,造成其质量差异的指标为橙皮苷、天麻素、柚皮芸香苷、毛蕊异黄酮葡萄糖苷和巴利森苷,可能是影响半夏天麻丸产品质量的差异性标志物。结论本实验首次建立了半夏天麻丸多指标成分质控方法,该方法易操作,重复性与稳定性良好;化学计量学手段也为半夏天麻丸质量控制研究提供了参考依据。

基于FRAM-FAHP的塔吊起重作业事故致因分析

以塔吊起重作业事故为研究对象,将功能共振分析法(FRAM)与模糊层次分析法(FAHP)相融合,采用FRAM-FAHP分析法研究塔吊起重作业过程中的事故演化机制。以广东汕头某项目塔吊起重滑脱事故为例,对塔吊作业的功能耦合过程进行定性和定量分析,确定影响塔吊起重作业的主要失效链接。研究表明:针对目标层塔吊成功起吊,方案层人员功能P_(1)、组织功能P_(3)影响较大,权重分别为0.3890和0.3457。在人员功能P_(1)、组织功能P_(3)中,上下游功能链接F_(3)(O)-F_(4)(I),F_(4)(O)-F_(9)(R)可作为塔吊起重时保障人员安全的关键线路,也可以作为塔吊起重事故的失效功能链接,因此施工企业可通过失效功能链接制定相关安全措施来预防事故发生。

基于HPLC-QAMS多指标成分定量与化学计量学的延丹胶囊质量评价研究

目的采用高效液相色谱一测多评(high performance liquid chromatography-quantitative analysis of multi-components by single marker,HPLC-QAMS)法同时检测延丹胶囊中10种主要成分含量,建立延丹胶囊多组分定量与化学计量学的综合分析方法,构建延丹胶囊质量评控体系。方法采用Hedera ODS-2(C18)色谱柱,乙腈-0.1%冰醋酸为流动相,梯度洗脱,检测波长230 nm(检测3,29-二苯甲酰基栝楼仁二醇和3,29-二苯甲酰基栝楼仁三醇)和280 nm(检测二氢丹参酮Ⅰ、隐丹参酮、丹参酮Ⅰ、丹参酮ⅡA、原阿片碱、延胡索乙素、紫堇碱和四氢小檗碱);选取丹参酮ⅡA为内参比物质,建立其与其他9种成分的相对校正因子,计算各成分含量,同时运用外标法验证所建立HPLC-QAMS法的重复性、合理性和可行性;运用化学计量学方法对10批样品的10种成分含量数据进行分析,挖掘对其质量控制具有显著贡献的主要成分。结果定量分析的10种成分线性关系良好(r>0.999);平均加样回收率96.93%~100.14%(RSD<2.0%);HPLC-QAMS法所测结果与外标法无显著性差异;偏最小二乘-判别分析结果显示丹参酮ⅡA、3,29-二苯甲酰基栝楼仁三醇、丹参酮Ⅰ和延胡索乙素是影响延丹胶囊产品质量的差异性标志物(VIP值>1)。结论所建立的HPLC-QAMS多指标成分定量控制方法操作便捷,重复性与稳定性良好,结果准确可靠,结合化学计量学分析,可用于延丹胶囊的整体质量控制和综合评价。

老年患者麻醉手术中压力性损伤发生情况调查及其预测模型的建立

目的调查老年患者麻醉手术中压力性损伤的发生情况,建立预测风险的列线图模型并进行内部验证。方法回顾性分析2018-02至2020-08在南充市中心医院进行麻醉手术的老年患者327例。收集麻醉手术中可能发生压力性损伤的因素,根据有无压力性损伤分为两组,比较其差异,并采用多因素Logistic回归分析压力性损伤的影响因素,并建立列线图预测模型进行内部验证。结果327例都完成了皮肤情况的观察,观察期间共41例(12.53%)出现压力性损伤。通过LASSO回归模型筛选出9个潜在的影响因素,并行多因素Logisitc回归分析,结果显示,年龄、BMI、吸烟史、手术体位、术中变换体位、手术时间、术中低温、白蛋白水平是老年患者麻醉手术中发生压力性损伤的独立性影响因素(P<0.05)。ROC曲线显示模型预测老年患者麻醉手术中发生压力性损伤的AUC为0.926(95%CI:0.888~0.965);校准曲线和H-L拟合优度检验结果显示,该列线图模型预测的概率与实际概率差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论老年患者麻醉手术中压力性损伤发生率较高,主要受年龄、BMI、吸烟史等因素影响,根据上述因素建立的列线图模型预测麻醉手术中压力性损伤具有较高的准确度与区分度。

重型颅脑损伤患者胃肠功能衰竭风险预测模型的建立

目的建立重型颅脑损伤(sTBI)患者胃肠功能衰竭风险预测模型,并进行验证。方法选择2019年1月至2023年3月达州市中西医结合医院神经外科接诊的147例sTBI患者资料进行分析。收集可能影响sTBI患者胃肠功能衰竭的相关因素,根据急性胃肠道损伤(AGI)分级将患者分为胃肠功能衰竭组与非胃肠功能衰竭组,以LASSO筛选出潜在影响因素后行多因素Logistic回归分析,根据多因素分析结果建立列线图模型并进行验证。结果本研究模型组102例sTBI患者中共有33例(32.35%)出现胃肠功能衰竭,多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示:机械通气情况、休克、通便措施、肺部感染情况、血钠、人肠脂肪酸结合蛋白(iFABP)、D-乳酸及二胺氧化酶(DAO)为sTBI患者胃肠功能衰竭的独立性影响因素(P<0.05)。ROC分析显示模型组曲线下面积(AUC)为0.942,95%CI为0.896~0.988;验证组AUC为0.908,95%CI为0.849~0.966。校准曲线结果显示,预测曲线与标准曲线基本拟合。决策曲线分析结果显示,当列线图模型预测sTBI患者胃肠功能衰竭风险的概率阈值为0.10~0.90时,患者的净收益率大于0。结论sTBI患者胃肠功能衰竭主要受机械通气情况、休克、通便措施等相关因素的影响,本研究基于上述因素建立的列线图预测模型用于预测sTBI患者胃肠功能衰竭具有较高的准确度与区分度。

一测多评法测定大黄碳酸氢钠片中5种游离蒽醌类成分的含量

目的建立一测多评法(QAMS)测定大黄碳酸氢钠片中5种游离蒽醌类成分的含量。方法采用高效液相色谱法,以大黄酚为内参物,确立芦荟大黄素、大黄酸、大黄素和大黄素甲醚与大黄酚的相对校正因子,并与外标法测定结果进行比较,以验证一测多评法在测定该成分的合理性和可行性。结果8批不同生产企业的样品,一测多评法计算值与外标法实测值无明显差异,相对平均偏差均小于1.0%。结论本方法准确可靠,可用于大黄碳酸氢钠片中5种游离蒽醌类成分的含量测定。