Currently, the estimated value of the effective reproduction number (ERN), which is an index for grasping the COVID-19 infection status, is used for important planning and evaluation of infection prevention measures. ...Currently, the estimated value of the effective reproduction number (ERN), which is an index for grasping the COVID-19 infection status, is used for important planning and evaluation of infection prevention measures. Since ERN in the Sequential SIR model fluctuates in multiple dimensions due to changes in the surrounding environment, it is difficult to set the appropriate accuracy of the uncertainty region of the estimated data. The challenge in this study is to build a mathematical model of infectious disease according to the characteristics and data characteristics of the infectious disease and select an appropriate estimation method. Highly accurate quantitative research that analyzes the validity of “how infectious diseases prevail” from an academic point of view is the key to prediction and estimation in appropriate infection situation analysis. In this study, we adopted a statistical multivariate analysis method (T method) that enables evaluation and prediction of important factors related to ERN estimation and analysis of phenomena that change in real time (time series analysis). It was clarified that it is possible to estimate with higher accuracy by applying the T method to the estimated value of ERN by the current SIR mathematical model.展开更多
We introduce the so-called naive tests and give a brief review of the new developments. Naive testing methods are easy to understand and perform robustly, especially when the dimension is large. We focus mainly on rev...We introduce the so-called naive tests and give a brief review of the new developments. Naive testing methods are easy to understand and perform robustly, especially when the dimension is large. We focus mainly on reviewing some naive testing methods for the mean vectors and covariance matrices of high-dimensional populations, and we believe that this naive testing approach can be used widely in many other testing problems.展开更多
文摘Currently, the estimated value of the effective reproduction number (ERN), which is an index for grasping the COVID-19 infection status, is used for important planning and evaluation of infection prevention measures. Since ERN in the Sequential SIR model fluctuates in multiple dimensions due to changes in the surrounding environment, it is difficult to set the appropriate accuracy of the uncertainty region of the estimated data. The challenge in this study is to build a mathematical model of infectious disease according to the characteristics and data characteristics of the infectious disease and select an appropriate estimation method. Highly accurate quantitative research that analyzes the validity of “how infectious diseases prevail” from an academic point of view is the key to prediction and estimation in appropriate infection situation analysis. In this study, we adopted a statistical multivariate analysis method (T method) that enables evaluation and prediction of important factors related to ERN estimation and analysis of phenomena that change in real time (time series analysis). It was clarified that it is possible to estimate with higher accuracy by applying the T method to the estimated value of ERN by the current SIR mathematical model.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11301063 and 11571067)Science and Technology Development Foundation of Jilin (Grant No. 20160520174JH)Science and Technology Foundation of Jilin during the "13th Five-Year Plan"
文摘We introduce the so-called naive tests and give a brief review of the new developments. Naive testing methods are easy to understand and perform robustly, especially when the dimension is large. We focus mainly on reviewing some naive testing methods for the mean vectors and covariance matrices of high-dimensional populations, and we believe that this naive testing approach can be used widely in many other testing problems.
