基于改进N-K模型的地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合研究

为预防和控制地铁盾构掘进施工过程中的关键安全风险,并精准判断哪些风险耦合情境是导致事故发生的显著情境,提出改进N-K模型研究地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合;综合运用文献研究、事故案例、专家访谈等方法,辨识地铁盾构掘进的关键安全风险因素;基于N-K模型提出新的地铁盾构掘进安全风险耦合评估模型,并选用安全事故案例验证该模型的适用性。结果表明:辨识得到地铁盾构掘进关键安全风险因素清单,包括4类一级风险因素,21个二级风险因素;地铁盾构掘进施工安全风险随着耦合因素种类的增加而变大,4因素风险耦合值最高,3因素风险耦合值次之,双因素风险耦合值最低,作业人员安全意识薄弱和机械故障参与作用的耦合情境更容易发生安全事故。

基于DEMATEL/N-K的机坪管制系统运行风险因素耦合分析

为了分析机坪管制系统风险因素的耦合性,将决策实验室分析(DEMATEL)模型与N-K模型相结合形成新的风险因素耦合分析模型。首先,利用N-K模型对2017—2019年机坪管制运行不安全事件进行耦合分析,计算不同耦合方式的耦合值;然后,利用DEMATEL模型计算安全风险因素的影响度和被影响度,确定要素的中心度排序,通过DEMATEL模型得到的综合影响矩阵计算可达矩阵,用来分析风险因素的可达性,最后,利用风险因素耦合值对各风险节点的中心度进行修正,获得关键的风险因素。基于实际运行数据,通过DEMATEL/N-K模型分析机坪管制系统的关键风险因素。结果表明,人为因素和机械因素之间的耦合程度明显更高,即更容易导致事故的发生,其中地面保障人员操作出错或未有效观察航空器造成航空器或地面保障设备故障是重点防控的对象。此外,在夜晚或雨天等视线条件下工作,更容易发生不安全事件,应当采取措施控制此类风险。

融合N-K模型的复杂网络船舶自沉事故风险因素耦合分析

为定量分析船舶自沉风险因素间的影响关系,识别导致船舶自沉事故的关键因素,科学预防事故的发生,引入融合N-K模型的复杂网络研究船舶自沉事故风险耦合。首先结合中国海事局公布的136起船舶自沉事故案例,分析事故致因,将船舶自沉事故风险因素归纳为4个一级风险因素和15个二级风险因素,运用N-K模型计算出一级风险因素风险耦合的发生概率和风险值;然后,以二级风险因素为节点、致因关联为边,构建危险因子的关联网络,通过风险可达性分析和网络节点中心度分析,探究危险因子的作用机制,对危险因子进行初步识别,并以N-K模型计算的耦合值对节点中心度进行改进,获得最终的关键风险因素;最后,挖掘船舶自沉事故致因网络的凝聚子群并进行分析,得到密度矩阵,确定风险关联性最强的二级风险因素,以期从事故源头上采取有效措施,为船舶自沉事故的科学预防提供有益参考。结果表明:船舶自沉事故的发生与风险耦合值成正比,耦合因素越多则风险值越大;人的因素和船舶因素风险耦合易导致船舶自沉事故;导致船舶自沉事故的关键风险因素为安全意识淡薄、公司未履责、船舶管理不到位、公司管理不到位、船舶故障、船舶不适航,其中安全意识淡薄与其他风险关联性最大,须重点防范。

基于N-K模型的石化储罐事故风险耦合度分析

为预防石化储罐事故,通过收集212份石化储罐事故报告,将事故风险因素归纳为人为、设备、环境、管理4个类别,利用N-K模型分析事故风险因素之间的耦合作用,并运用N-K模型计算各种耦合模式下的风险耦合度,得出了石化储罐事故风险因素的耦合关系及耦合作用规律。结果表明,随着参与耦合的因素增多,风险耦合值总体呈现上升趋势;人为因素与其它因素耦合更容易导致事故;石化储罐区事故各风险因素之间的耦合作用程度相比其它行业更高。研究结果可为石化企业储罐事故管控提供依据和参考。

An Extended Bivariate T-Distribution Type Symmetry Model for Square Contingency Tables

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new model of asymmetry for square contingency tables with ordered categories. The new model may be appropriate for a square contingency table if it is reasonable to assume an underlying bivariate t-distribution with different marginal variances having any degrees of freedom. As the degrees of freedom becomes larger, the proposed model approaches the extended linear diagonals-parameter symmetry model, which may be appropriate for a square table if it is reasonable to assume an underlying bivariate normal distribution. The simulation study based on bivariate t-distribution is given. An example is given.

Contingency management strategies of the Nursing Department in centralized rescue of patients with coronavirus disease 2019

Objectives:This article aims to summarize a series of contingency management strategies of the Nursing Department in the centralized treatment of patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).Methods:The strategies of the Nursing Department included an early warning for prevention and control,taking functions of vertically commanding and horizontally coordinating,and reasonably allocating nursing workforce,to facilitate centralized treatment work in the in-hospital fever clinic,isolation wards and ICU,and referral and admission of critical patients.Five special groups were established in charge of training and examination,management and supervision,psychological support,logistical support,and reporting and publicity,respectively.Results:It was achieved that no deaths from critical patients and no medical staff,no other patients were infected.Conclusion:Through the implementation of these strategies,safe and efficient centralized treatment was ensured timely,orderly and sustainably.

Sizing of STATCOM to Enhance Voltage Stability of Power Systems for Normal and Contingency Cases

The electric power infrastructure that has served huge loads for so long is rapidly running up against many limitations. Out of many challenges it is to operate the power system in secure manner so that the operation constraints are fulfilled under both normal and contingent conditions. Smart grid technology offers valuable techniques that can be deployed within the very near future or which are already deployed nowadays. Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS) devices have been introduced to solve various power system problems. In literature, most of the methods proposed for sizing the FACTS devices only consider the normal operating conditions of power systems. Consequently, some transmission lines are heavily loaded in contingency case and the system voltage stability becomes a power transfer-limiting factor. This paper presents a technique for determining the proper rating/size of FACTS devices, namely the Static Synchronous Compensator (STATCOM), while considering contingency cases. The paper also verifies that the weakest bus determined by eigenvalue and eigenvectors method is the best location for STATCOM. The rating of STATCOM is specified according to the required reactive power needed to improve voltage stability under normal and contingency cases. Two case system studies are investigated: a simple 5-bus system and the IEEE 14-bus system. The obtained results verify that the rating of STATCOM can be determined according to the worst contingency case, and through proper control it can still be effective for normal and other contingency cases.

Problem-Based Learning of Drug Use and Abuse during COVID-19 Contingency

Introduction: Nursing students’ experiences during the pandemic provoked social isolation, the way to learn and every context increasing their stress and anxiety leading to drug use and abuse, among others. Problem-based learning (PBL) is a pedagogic strategy to strengthen significant learning;then the objective was to establish PBL influence in nursing students’ experiences on drug use and abuse during COVID-19 contingency. Methods: Qualitative, phenomenological and descriptive paradigm, 12 female and male nursing students aged 20 - 24 years old from the 5th and 6th semesters participated. Information collection was through semi-structured interview and a deep one in four cases. A guide of questions about: How the pandemic impacted your life? How did you face it? And what did you learn during this process? Those questions were used. Qualitative data analysis was based on De Souza Minayo, and signed informed consent was obtained from participants. Results: Students’ experiences allowed four categories to emerge, with six sub-categories. Category I. Students’ experiences on drug use and abuse facing the sanitary contingency;Category II. Students’ skills development to identify a problem and design of appropriate solutions;Category III. Developing skills to favor interpersonal relationships;Category IV. Influence of PBL in nursing students’ experiences on drug use and abuse during the COVID-19 contingency. Conclusion: PBL favored analysis and thoughts in nursing students’ experiences on drug use and abuse during the COVID-19 contingency, they worked collaboratively, developed resilience to daily life situations, and implemented stress coping strategies with their significant learning, which diminished their risk behavior.

基于事故树的N-K模型施工事故风险耦合分析

为了研究水平定向钻施工事故风险,考虑事故树定性分析与N-K模型(N为系统的组件数量,K为每个组件与其他组件的交互数量)定量分析方法的缺点,从人为、设备、环境及管理4类风险因素构建一种基于事故树的N-K施工事故风险分析综合模型。通过建立事故树施工底层事件与N-K模型耦合风险因素集合映射关系,分别计算单因素、双因素以及多因素耦合风险概率,求解风险耦合值。结果表明:水平定向钻施工事故风险概率随着风险耦合因素的增加而增大;三因素耦合作用时,设备-环境-管理耦合作用值最大为0.2608,人为-设备-管理次之为0.2034;双因素耦合作用时,环境-管理耦合作用值最大为0.1554;水平定向钻施工事故共有50种引发事故的可能途径,可以按照准备阶段、导向孔钻进阶段、扩孔阶段、管道回拖阶段与规划管理阶段对整体事故风险进行分阶段预防。研究成果一方面可为风险研究提供新的综合模型,另一方面也可为水平定向钻安全施工提供重要的参考依据。

Marine oil spill contingency planning

According to the practice researching and formulating “The Oil Spill Contingency Plan of South Chinese Sea”, this paper analyses and discusses the structure, functions and main contents of marine oil spill contingency planning, programs the organizing and commanding system and emergency response system, and advances the planning and researching method to coordinate comprehensively and to design practically the detailed emergency response steps until to formulate the ease operating programs for the plan implementation(PPI) and the PPI to apply high techniques supporting emergency administrations and response.

融合N-K模型社会网络的化工企业爆炸风险因素耦合研究

为揭示我国化工企业爆炸事故风险因素耦合特性,并识别关键风险因素,将风险因素划分为人、机、环、管4类,风险耦合形式界定为单因素、双因素和多因素风险耦合3类,进而采用N-K模型测度风险耦合水平,运用社会网络分析(Social Network Analysis,SNA)模型分析风险因素节点的中心度及可达性,并结合风险因素耦合水平测度结果和风险因素节点分析结果确定化工企业爆炸关键风险因素,据此提出防控建议。结果表明:风险因素耦合水平与参与因素的数量成正比,4类因素耦合水平最高,且人员风险对耦合影响较大;现场安全管理不到位,安全风险分析或隐患排查不全面,监理、安评等单位依法履职不到位,变更管理制度存在缺陷,安全生产信息档案不全是需要重点防范的关键风险因素。

A Multivariate Test for Three-Factor Interaction in 3-Way Contingency Table under the Multiplicative Model

Two test statistics that have been commonly used in analysing interactions in contingency table are the Pearson’s Chi-square statistic, χ2, and likelihood ratio test statistic, G2. Both test statistics, in tables with sufficiently large sample size, have an asymptotic chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom (df) equal to the number of free parameters in the saturated model. For example under the hypothesis of independence of the row and column conditioned on the layer in an I × J × K contingency table, the df is K(I –1)(J– 1). These test statistics, in large sized tables, will have less power since they have large degrees of freedom. This paper proposes a product effect model, which combines the advantages of the multiplicative models over the additive, for analysing the interaction between the row and column of the 3-way table conditioned on the layer. The derived statistics is shown to be asymptotically chi-square with a small degree of freedom, K?– 1, for the I × J × K contingency table. The performance of the developed statistic is compared with the Pearson’s chi-square statistic and the likelihood ratio statistic test using an illustrative example. The results show that the product effect test can detect interaction even when some of the main effects are not significant and can perform better than the other competitors having smaller degree of freedom in large sized tables.

Asymmetry Index on Marginal Homogeneity for Square Contingency Tables with Ordered Categories

For square contingency tables with ordered categories, the present paper considers two kinds of weak marginal homogeneity and gives measures to represent the degree of departure from weak marginal homogeneity. The proposed measures lie between –1 to 1. When the marginal cumulative logistic model or the extended marginal homogeneity model holds, the proposed measures represent the degree of departure from marginal homogeneity. Using these measures, three kinds of unaided distance vision data are analyzed.

Extended Diagonal Exponent Symmetry Model and Its Orthogonal Decomposition in Square Contingency Tables with Ordered Categories

For square contingency tables with ordered categories, this article proposes new models, which are the extension of Tomizawa’s [1] diagonal exponent symmetry model. Also it gives the decomposition of proposed model, and shows the orthogonality of the test statistics for decomposed models. Examples are given and the simulation studies based on the bivariate normal distribution are also given.

A Unified Approach for the Multivariate Analysis of Contingency Tables

We present a unified approach to describing and linking several methods for representing categorical data in a contingency table. These methods include: correspondence analysis, Hellinger distance analysis, the log-ratio alternative, which is appropriate for compositional data, and the non-symmetrical correspondence analysis. We also present two solutions working with cummulative frequencies.

Comparative Analysis of Hybrid Controllers of Done Systems (UPFC) and Interphase Power Regulators Type RPI 30p15 on Contingency Management in Electrical Networks

The aim of this work is to demonstrate that interphase power regulators (IPR) bring new and interesting ultra-solutions that complement those already taken into account by the FACTS (Flexible Alternative Transmission System) in the resolution of the problems related to the power flow in the AC transmission networks. In order to facilitate the understanding of this work, a comparative study of the performances of the two technologies between the UPFC (Unified Power Flow Controller) and RPI was carried out and at the end of which we were able to highlight the preponderance of RPI compared to the UPFC in the bypassing of the short-circuit fault insofar as the latter allows, in particular, an increase in the transformation capacity without an increase in the level of the short-circuit. The decoupled watt-var method has been used to control the UPFC while the RPI is controlled by phase shift. The simulation results are obtained in the Matlab Simulink environment and show the flexibility of the RPI compared to the UPFC in limiting strong contingencies.

基于N-K-FRAM的空中交通运行安全风险耦合机制

为探究空中交通运行安全风险耦合演化特征,厘清基于N-K模型与功能共振分析方法(FRAM)相结合的空中交通运行系统耦合变异形成机制,首先,收集不安全事件文本数据,归纳事件中的风险因素并归类,得到其历史发生频率以及风险因素之间的耦合关系;其次,利用N-K模型求解运行风险因素间的耦合度值;然后,结合输出时间与精度,定量评估FRAM功能模块的可变性,分析空中交通运行安全风险耦合机制;最后,分别以区域导航(RNAV)进近不安全事件与偏离航路不安全事件为例,分析其安全风险。结果表明:基于N-K-FRAM的风险耦合机制能够合理有效地定量计算功能模块间的变异性,弱化了传统分析方法对主观意识的依赖性,分析结果更为客观科学。

Machine Learning for Hybrid Line Stability Ranking Index in Polynomial Load Modeling under Contingency Conditions

In the conventional technique,in the evaluation of the severity index,clustering and loading suffer from more iteration leading to more com-putational delay.Hence this research article identifies,a novel progression for fast predicting the severity of the line and clustering by incorporating machine learning aspects.The polynomial load modelling or ZIP(constant impedances(Z),Constant Current(I)and Constant active power(P))is developed in the IEEE-14 and Indian 118 bus systems considered for analysis of power system security.The process of finding the severity of the line using a Hybrid Line Stability Ranking Index(HLSRI)is used for assisting the concepts of machine learning with J48 algorithm,infers the superior affected lines by adopting the IEEE standards in concern to be compensated in maintaining the power system stability.The simulation is performed in the WEKA environment and deals with the supervisor learning in order based on severity to ensure the safety of power system.The Unified Power Flow Controller(UPFC),facts devices for the purpose of compensating the losses by maintaining the voltage characteristics.The finite element analysis findings are compared with the existing procedures and numerical equations for authentications.

A Steady-State Contingency Analysis of the SADC Regional Grid Using the N-1 Criterion

Southern Africa has experienced electric power deficits over the last decade. This has been due in part to the member countries＇ inadequate electrical power supply system, as well as load growth in areas which were not adequately planned for. This has induced the formation of organizations such as SADC （Southern African Development Community） and SAPP （Southern African Power Pool） that have the common goal of achieving development and economic growth in the region which comprises of 15 member countries. This paper presents results from a security analysis of the region＇s electric power supply system using a baseline level of performance. This was carried out by performing a steady-state contingency analysis on a SADC power network model subject to the N-1 criteria which expresses the ability of the power network to experience a contingency without causing an overload or failure in any other part of the network. Simulations were carried out using DigSilent.