Multi-scenario land use prediction and layout optimization in Nanjing Metropolitan Area based on the PLUS model

The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary for regional integration and high-quality development.This study focused on Nanjing Metropolitan Area,the first national metropolitan area in China,and established three development scenarios by combining ecological–economic spatial conflict(EESC)zones and national key ecological functional areas.These scenarios simulate the spatial distribution of future land use and land cover change(LUCC)using the development zone planning function of the patch generation land use simulation(PLUS)model.The results show that:(1)Between 2000 and 2020,the most prominent characteristics of land use change were largely the massive expansion of built-up land and the significant decline of farmland,while changes in the area of ecological land were less evident.(2)EESC areas experienced significant changes over the past 20 years,but the overall level of conflict was low.Ecological land was the main land use type in the lowest-conflict area,while built-up land was the main land use type in the highest-conflict area.(3)From 2030 to 2050,further expansion of built-up areas is expected,with continued decrease of farmland.The regulation of these land use changes can be achieved through different development zone plans.The economic development scenario had the largest built-up land area,while the ecological protection scenario had the largest farmland area.This study simulates the spatial pattern changes in the metropolitan area based on spatial conflict patterns and national main functional area planning process,providing a scientific reference for future spatial planning and management.

The Scale-Effects of Different Land Use Types on the Distribution Pattern of Park Green Space at Multiple Grid Scales-A Case Study on the Main Urban Area of Nanjing,China

Exploring the scale-effect of different land use types on the distribution pattern of urban park green space(PGS)at multiple grid scales would inform rational allocation and efficient collaborative construction of urban development land at different scales.Selecting 300-m,500-m,1,000-m,and 2,000-m grid scales,the research employed Create Fishnet tool in ArcGIS and Geodetector to construct a scale-effect analysis framework that revealed the scale-effects of different land use types on the distribution pattern of PGS at multiple grid scales in the main urban area of Nanjing,China in 2006,2012,and 2017.Main research results are:1)the overall distribution pattern of PGS showed the evolution characteristics from polarization to advancing quality and efficiency,while the trend gradually weakened with the increase of grid scale;2)the scale-effect of other land use types on PGS increasingly enhanced-the larger the grid scale,the more obvious the synergistic or compressive effect;3)the interactive scaleeffects of different land use types gradually enhanced-the larger the grid scale,the more significant the overall factor interaction;and 4)at the 300-m grid scale,the major interaction factors were residential,transportation,industrial/manufacturing,water area,and administration/public services,which gradually changed to residential,water area,and administration/public services up to the 2,000-m grid scale.The findings of this paper are expected to deepen the theory of the coupling between PGS and other land use types,as well as provide scientific support and a basis for efficient allocation,spatial layout optimization,and sustainable development of urban spaces.