This paper explores the market structures of natural gas and electricity as well as the interdependence of natural gas prices and bids with increasing reliance on natural gas as the penetration of renewable energy res...This paper explores the market structures of natural gas and electricity as well as the interdependence of natural gas prices and bids with increasing reliance on natural gas as the penetration of renewable energy resources increases in order to complement their intermittencies. In particular, the paper will attempt to answer the following two questions: What could the generation mix look like in 2030 with a renewable-rich generation landscape and how could this impact gas prices? How do gasfired generator(GFG) generation volatility, their prices,and their bids for gas change between 2015 and 2030 with increased penetration of renewables? In order to answer these questions, computational models are derived using forecasting and regression analysis tools and an auction model.展开更多
After more than 30 years of rapid growth, the Chinese economy has entered the "new normal" of moderately high growth. Due to the effects of multiple factors, the international oil price has remained consiste...After more than 30 years of rapid growth, the Chinese economy has entered the "new normal" of moderately high growth. Due to the effects of multiple factors, the international oil price has remained consistently low. The low oil price has exerted critical effects on international natural gas investment. At the same time, the market-oriented price mechanism of natural gas in China is gradually taking shape; the concept of low carbon development is widely advocated; and the use of natural gas gains popularity in the city. Such factors provide great opportunities for investment in the natural gas market of China, including boiler coal-to-gas transformation, natural gas distributed energy and natural gas vehicles. However, risks also exist, such as the lower competitiveness of natural gas, its excess production capacity and dwindling consumption in some gas consumption industries, an insufficient driving force for facilitating the coal-to-gas transformation of industrial fuel users, reverse substitution of "coal in place of gas" in some enterprises, nontransparent costs of the downstream link of the natural gas price chain, and mismatches and nonsynchronous adjustments in natural gas prices and electricity prices.展开更多
China natural gas industry is at a turning point. Growth of mid-long term natural gas consumption may maintain at about 10%, supply is sufficient or even "over-sufficient", natural gas price will be determin...China natural gas industry is at a turning point. Growth of mid-long term natural gas consumption may maintain at about 10%, supply is sufficient or even "over-sufficient", natural gas price will be determined by competition, oil and gas pipeline facilities will be opened fairly, and private enterprises will play important roles in natural gas exploration, development, storage, transportation, and trade. It can been foreseen that China natural gas industry is very likely to take a turn in next 10 years, and a modern natural gas market with consumption about 500 billion cubic meters will come into being characterized by complete supervision system, diversified market, steady supply, fairly opened pipelines, transparent trading mechanism, and competitive prices.展开更多
By the end of 2015, total length of China＇s long-distance gas pipelines has exceeded 70,O00km. Onshore stratey, ic import paths have been formed, domestic trunk networks perfected and gas storages construction pace a...By the end of 2015, total length of China＇s long-distance gas pipelines has exceeded 70,O00km. Onshore stratey, ic import paths have been formed, domestic trunk networks perfected and gas storages construction pace acceh＇rated. The Chinese section of Russia-China East Gas Pipeline was officially commenced, which marked that the northeast import path entered the stage ofconstruction. There are 13 LNG terminals in China. The National Development and Rerorm Commission （NDRC） approved China＇s.first private-owned LNG terminal- the Zhoushan LNG terminal. In the coming.five years, the focus of institutional reform will be the independence of pipelines and networks, the focus of construction will be regional networks and branch pipelines, and joint ventures will be the mainstream for gas pipeline construction and operation.展开更多
Gas market in Europe is experiencing a radical change for different reasons, partially determined and accelerated by economic downturn of the last period. In the past few years, many European countries adopted energy ...Gas market in Europe is experiencing a radical change for different reasons, partially determined and accelerated by economic downturn of the last period. In the past few years, many European countries adopted energy policies largely based on the utilization of natural gas. In fact, a sharp increase of the demand was observed and, at the same time, a lot of infrastructures were developed to assure the necessary supply. In the last few years, due to the economic downturn, natural gas demand decreased, causing a consistent oversupply on the market, which altered the consolidated dynamics of the sector. Under- standing the changes currently under development in the European gas market is of paramount importance in order to design future strategies for the sector; in particular, it is necessary to understand if the present situation will cause a reshaping of the sector.展开更多
基金supported by National Science Foundation(NSF)initiative Award(No.EFRI-1441301)
文摘This paper explores the market structures of natural gas and electricity as well as the interdependence of natural gas prices and bids with increasing reliance on natural gas as the penetration of renewable energy resources increases in order to complement their intermittencies. In particular, the paper will attempt to answer the following two questions: What could the generation mix look like in 2030 with a renewable-rich generation landscape and how could this impact gas prices? How do gasfired generator(GFG) generation volatility, their prices,and their bids for gas change between 2015 and 2030 with increased penetration of renewables? In order to answer these questions, computational models are derived using forecasting and regression analysis tools and an auction model.
基金Fund project:"Development Research Center of Oil and Gas,Sichuan"(NO.SKY17-04)
文摘After more than 30 years of rapid growth, the Chinese economy has entered the "new normal" of moderately high growth. Due to the effects of multiple factors, the international oil price has remained consistently low. The low oil price has exerted critical effects on international natural gas investment. At the same time, the market-oriented price mechanism of natural gas in China is gradually taking shape; the concept of low carbon development is widely advocated; and the use of natural gas gains popularity in the city. Such factors provide great opportunities for investment in the natural gas market of China, including boiler coal-to-gas transformation, natural gas distributed energy and natural gas vehicles. However, risks also exist, such as the lower competitiveness of natural gas, its excess production capacity and dwindling consumption in some gas consumption industries, an insufficient driving force for facilitating the coal-to-gas transformation of industrial fuel users, reverse substitution of "coal in place of gas" in some enterprises, nontransparent costs of the downstream link of the natural gas price chain, and mismatches and nonsynchronous adjustments in natural gas prices and electricity prices.
文摘China natural gas industry is at a turning point. Growth of mid-long term natural gas consumption may maintain at about 10%, supply is sufficient or even "over-sufficient", natural gas price will be determined by competition, oil and gas pipeline facilities will be opened fairly, and private enterprises will play important roles in natural gas exploration, development, storage, transportation, and trade. It can been foreseen that China natural gas industry is very likely to take a turn in next 10 years, and a modern natural gas market with consumption about 500 billion cubic meters will come into being characterized by complete supervision system, diversified market, steady supply, fairly opened pipelines, transparent trading mechanism, and competitive prices.
文摘By the end of 2015, total length of China＇s long-distance gas pipelines has exceeded 70,O00km. Onshore stratey, ic import paths have been formed, domestic trunk networks perfected and gas storages construction pace acceh＇rated. The Chinese section of Russia-China East Gas Pipeline was officially commenced, which marked that the northeast import path entered the stage ofconstruction. There are 13 LNG terminals in China. The National Development and Rerorm Commission （NDRC） approved China＇s.first private-owned LNG terminal- the Zhoushan LNG terminal. In the coming.five years, the focus of institutional reform will be the independence of pipelines and networks, the focus of construction will be regional networks and branch pipelines, and joint ventures will be the mainstream for gas pipeline construction and operation.
文摘Gas market in Europe is experiencing a radical change for different reasons, partially determined and accelerated by economic downturn of the last period. In the past few years, many European countries adopted energy policies largely based on the utilization of natural gas. In fact, a sharp increase of the demand was observed and, at the same time, a lot of infrastructures were developed to assure the necessary supply. In the last few years, due to the economic downturn, natural gas demand decreased, causing a consistent oversupply on the market, which altered the consolidated dynamics of the sector. Under- standing the changes currently under development in the European gas market is of paramount importance in order to design future strategies for the sector; in particular, it is necessary to understand if the present situation will cause a reshaping of the sector.
