A Weighted Likelihood Ratio of Two Related Negative Hypergeomeric Distributions

In this paper we consider some related negative hypergeometric distributions arising from the problem of sampling without replacement from an urn containing balls of different colours and in different proportions but stopping only after some specific number of balls of different colours have been obtained. With the aid of some simple recurrence relations and identities we obtain in the case of two colours the moments for the maximum negative hypergeometric distribution, the minimum negative hypergeometric distribution, the likelihood ratio negative hypergeometric distribution and consequently the likelihood proportional negative hypergeometric distributiuon. To the extent that the sampling scheme is applicable to modelling data as illustrated with a biological example and in fact many situations of estimating Bernoulli parameters for binary traits within a finite population, these are important first-step results.

Comparison of six generalized linear models for occurrence of lightning-induced fires in northern Daxing'an Mountains,China

The occurrence of lightning-induced forest fires during a time period is count data featuring over-dispersion （i.e., variance is larger than mean） and a high frequency of zero counts. In this study, we used six generalized linear models to examine the relationship between the occurrence of lightning-induced forest fires and meteorological factors in the Northern Daxing＇an Mountains of China. The six models included Poisson, negative binomial （NB）, zero- inflated Poisson （ZIP）, zero-inflated negative binomial （ZINB）, Poisson hurdle （PH）, and negative binomial hurdle （NBH） models. Goodness-of-fit was compared and tested among the six models using Akaike information criterion （AIC）, sum of squared errors, likelihood ratio test, and Vuong test. The predictive performance of the models was assessed and compared using independent validation data by the data-splitting method. Based on the model AIC, the ZINB model best fitted the fire occurrence data, followed by （in order of smaller AIC） NBH, ZIP, NB, PH, and Poisson models. The ZINB model was also best for pre- dicting either zero counts or positive counts （〉1）. The two Hurdle models （PH and NBH） were better than ZIP, Poisson, and NB models for predicting positive counts, but worse than these three models for predicting zero counts. Thus, the ZINB model was the first choice for modeling the occurrence of lightning-induced forest fires in this study, which implied that the excessive zero counts of lightning- induced fires came from both structure and sampling zeros.