The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country'...The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country's economy and reflect its oil economic security, this paper defines the net oil import intensity as the ratio of net oil import cost to GDP. By using Divisia Index Decomposition, the change of net oil import intensity in five industrialized countries and five newly industrialized countries during 1971—2010 is decomposed into five factors: oil price, oil intensity, oil self-sufficiency, domestic price level and exchange rate. The result shows that the dominating factors are oil price and oil intensity; moreover, the newly industrialized countries have higher net oil import intensity than industrialized countries.展开更多
Oil is extremely crucial to the development of the modern economy. It is important to forecast the oil supply capacity due to its scarcity and non-renewability. This paper attempts to forecast and analyze thirty-five ...Oil is extremely crucial to the development of the modern economy. It is important to forecast the oil supply capacity due to its scarcity and non-renewability. This paper attempts to forecast and analyze thirty-five current and potential net oil-exporting countries. Integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods, the oil production and consumption are predicted based on historical data, so that the world net oil-exporting capacity can be obtained. The results show that the ＂roof effect＂ of the world net oil-exporting capacity may appear before 2030. Unconventional oil will play an important role in the future world oil market. The competition and cooperation relationships between OPEC and non-OPEC will last for a long time.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71273027 and No.71322306)
文摘The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country's economy and reflect its oil economic security, this paper defines the net oil import intensity as the ratio of net oil import cost to GDP. By using Divisia Index Decomposition, the change of net oil import intensity in five industrialized countries and five newly industrialized countries during 1971—2010 is decomposed into five factors: oil price, oil intensity, oil self-sufficiency, domestic price level and exchange rate. The result shows that the dominating factors are oil price and oil intensity; moreover, the newly industrialized countries have higher net oil import intensity than industrialized countries.
基金support from Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research of Ministry of Education(09JZD0038)
文摘Oil is extremely crucial to the development of the modern economy. It is important to forecast the oil supply capacity due to its scarcity and non-renewability. This paper attempts to forecast and analyze thirty-five current and potential net oil-exporting countries. Integrating both qualitative and quantitative methods, the oil production and consumption are predicted based on historical data, so that the world net oil-exporting capacity can be obtained. The results show that the ＂roof effect＂ of the world net oil-exporting capacity may appear before 2030. Unconventional oil will play an important role in the future world oil market. The competition and cooperation relationships between OPEC and non-OPEC will last for a long time.
