考虑No-Show的多航段航空机票定价模型

本文提出了多航段航空机票定价模型,从航空公司与旅客两个局中人的博弈的角度,阐述了考虑No-Show下的兼顾多航段航空机票定价模型.该模型由价格控制市场需求出发,结合博弈论、概率论等基本理论,完成多航段机票定价决策的同时,通过价格变化控制机票销量,达到超售有效克服No Show对收益的影响,并同步实现了不同航段舱位的合理分配.算例验证了该模型的可操作性和实用价值.

An Extended Bailey-welch Rule with No-show and Walk-in For Outpatient Appointment Scheduling

In clinic＇s appointment scheduling system no-shows have been a significant and confirmed issue with a bad influence on patient accessibility and clinic efficiency. The problem of walk-in has often been seen as the opposite of no-show problem. In this work we revisit a walk-in admitting based approach to mitigate the bad influence of no-show without overbooking. First we establish a model which utilizes marginal benefit objective function to balance the interests of the clinic, the patient and the doctor, we prove that no-show and walk-in cancels out each other straightly has a bad property. Then we propose a new rule which is an extension of the well-known Bailey - Welch rule, the simulation results show that our rule has an improvement comparing with the common rule that cancels them out straightly.

Optimal appointment scheduling with no-shows and exponential service time considering overtime work

Appointment systems are used by health clinics to manage access to service providers.In such systems,a specified number of patients are scheduled in advance,but certain patients may not arrive or‘show up’to their appointments.The existence of no-show behaviour influences both the operational cost of the clinics and the waiting time of the patients.In this paper,we determine an optimal schedule that takes no-show behaviour into account to determine the time intervals between patients under the framework of the individual-block/variableinterval rule for minimising the overall cost of the patient waiting time,the practitioner idle time and overtime.Under the condition that the service time of each patient is exponentially distributed,we compare the results with a schedule designed for the same expected number of patients in the absence of no-shows and analyse the effect on the system performance from the perspectives of day-length,expected workload,no-show probability,ratio of overtime costs and no-golf policy.We extend our results to an equally-spaced appointment system,which is commonly used in practice.Our results show that not only do no-shows greatly affect the system performance compared with an appointment system with the same expected workload without no-shows,but they also affect the optimal scheduling behaviours in the dome-shaped distribution.In addition,overtime cannot be eliminated completely even if the day length is adequate for all patients because of the stochastic characteristic of service time.

航班座位超售量的确定

通过分析超售所产生的期望收益,提出了两种确定航班座位超售量的计算模型。这两种模型对航空公司实施超售具有实际指导意义。

基于演化计算的机票超售建模

针对航空公司机票超售策略建立一个数学模型。考虑到该问题的复杂性 ,将旅客的到达看作一个二项分布 ,这一假设具有一定的合理性。该问题是一个多目标规划问题 ,在求解的时候 ,将 (p m)看作遗传种群个体 ,加权得到一个单目标问题 ,最后给出了它的计算方法 ,并进行数值仿真。

基于二项式分布的航空机票超售模型

机票超售是收益管理的一个重要组成部分。首先对Go-show,No-show和DB进行了影响因素分析,然后提出了基于二项式分布的超售模型,并对仿真结果进行了数值分析,最后通过数值分析结果,对原数学模型的实用性做了改进,提出了考虑机场处理能力的超售模型。

美联航事件中的机票超售问题研究

机票超售是航空收益管理的重要组成部分,确定最佳超售水平是机票超售的核心问题。为了确定最佳超售水平,基于二项分布的超售模型,综合考虑No-show人数和DB人数对总收益的影响,借助Matlab对多变量函数参数变化进行数值分析后,得到了航班的最优订票水平与旅客到达机场的概率以及处理DB旅客的费用之间关系,并给出了有效建议。最后对模型进行了实例分析,证明此方法简便可行,能够作为航空公司制定订票水平时的参考。

Evaluation of an educational telephone intervention strategy to improve non-screening colonoscopy attendance:A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND Colonoscopy attendance is a key quality parameter in colorectal cancer population screening programmes.Within these programmes,educative interventions with bidirectional contact carried out by trained personnel have been proved to be an important tool for colonoscopy attendance improvement,and because of its huge clinical and economic impact,they have been widely implemented.However,outside of this population programmes,educative measures to improve colonoscopy attendance have been poorly studied and no navigation interventions are usually performed.AIM To investigate the clinical and economic impacts of an educational telephone intervention on colonoscopy attendance outside colorectal cancer screening programmes.METHODS This randomized controlled trial included consecutive patients referred to colonoscopy from primary care centres from November 2017 to May 2018.The intervention group(IG)received a telephone intervention,while the control group(CG)did not.Patients assigned to the IG received an educational telephone call 7 d before the colonoscopy appointment.The intervention was carried out by two nurses with deep endoscopic knowledge who were previously trained for a telephone educational intervention for colonoscopy.The impact on patient compliance with preparedness protocols related to bowel cleansing,antithrombotic management,and sedation scheduling was also evaluated.A second call was conducted to assess patient satisfaction.Intention-to-treat(ITT)and perprotocol(PP)analyses were performed.RESULTS A total of 738 and 746 patients were finally included in the IG and CG respectively.Six hundred thirteen(83%)patients were contacted in the IG.The non-attendance rate was lower in the IG,both in the ITT analysis(IG 8.4%vs CG 14.3%,P<0.001)and in the PP analysis(4.4%vs 14.3%,P<0.001).In a multivariable analysis,belonging to the control group increased the risk of nonattendance in both,the ITT analysis(OR 1.81,95%CI:1.27 to 2.58,P=0.001)and the PP analysis(OR 3.56,95%CI:2.25 to 5.64,P<0.001).There was also a significant difference in compliance with preparedness protocols[bowel cleansing:IG 61.7%vs CG 52.6%(P=0.001),antithrombotic management:IG 92.5%vs CG 62.8%(P=0.001),and sedation scheduling:IG 78.8%vs CG 0%(P≤0.001)].We observed a net benefit of €55600/year after the intervention.The information given before the procedure was rated as excellent by 26%(CG)and 51%(IG)of patients,P≤0.001.CONCLUSION Educational telephone nurse intervention improves attendance,protocol compliance and patient satisfaction in the non-screening colonoscopy setting and has a large economic impact,which supports its imple-mentation and maintenance over time.

OUTPATIENT CAPACITY ALLOCATION CONSIDERING ADDING CAPACITY TO MATCH HIGH PATIENT DEMAND

This paper focuses on an outpatient capacity allocation problem where the patient demand is quite higher than the supply. We study an adding capacity policy to mitigate the mismatch between supply and demand. Under this policy, the doctor is allowed to add capacity if all regular capacity have been booked. A capacity allocation model is formulated for both possible no-show routine patients and all show-up same-day patients. The purpose is to determine the number of capacity can be added and how to allocate regular capacity among routine patients and same-day patients, towards maximizing the expected profit, which is composed of the expected income minus the cost of weighted expected doctor＇s overload work caused by the adding capacity policy and the cost of rejecting patients. To achieve the aims, we prove the expected profit monotonously decreases when the number of additional capacity exceeds a threshold, and present a two-tier enumeration search algorithm to fred the global optimal solution based on the proof. Numerical results indicate that the proposed policy performs well under different levels of demand higher than supply. The optimal number of the additional capacity is hardly affected by varying total expected patient demand. Additionally, under the change of no-show rate, the number of regular capacity allocated to routine patients becomes more stable, compared with the optimal scheme without considering adding capacity policy.