Background:The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladderpreserving surgery.This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-pres...Background:The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladderpreserving surgery.This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence.Methods:The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected.The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis.A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables.The C-index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence.Results:During the follow-up period,a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence,and the recurrence rate was 35.5%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones>2 years[odds ratio(OR)=2.567,95%confidence interval(CI):1.270-5.187,P=0.009],symptomatic gallstones(OR=2.589,95%CI:1.059-6.329,P=0.037),multiple gallstones(OR=2.436,95%CI:1.133-5.237,P=0.023),history of acute cholecystitis(OR=2.778,95%CI:1.178-6.549,P=0.020)and a greasy diet(OR=2.319,95%CI:1.186-4.535,P=0.014)were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery.A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables.The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692,suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence.Moreover,the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability.Conclusions:The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might help clinicians develop a proper treatment strategy for patients with gallstones.Gallbladder-preserving surgery should be cautiously considered for patients with high recurrence risks.展开更多
Objective: To develop and internally validate a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) including the time to radical cystectomy (RC) and perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) as potential predictors.Method...Objective: To develop and internally validate a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) including the time to radical cystectomy (RC) and perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) as potential predictors.Methods: Patients who underwent open RC and ileal conduit between January 1996 to December 2016 were split into developing (n=948) and validating (n=237) cohorts. The time to radical cystectomy (TTC) was defined as the interval between the onset of symptoms and RC. The regression coefficients of the independent predictors obtained by Cox regression were used to construct the nomogram. Discrimination, validation, and clinical usefulness in the validation cohort were assessed by the area under the curve, the calibration plot, and decision curve analysis.Results: In the developing dataset, the 1-, 5-, and 10-year RFS were 83.0%, 47.2%, and 44.4%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, independent predictors were TTC (hazards ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.08, p<0.001), PBT (one unit: HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.03-1.90, p=0.03;two or more units: HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.29-2.29, p<0.001), bilateral hydronephrosis (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.21-1.97, p<0.001), squamous cell carcinoma (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.45-0.81, p=0.001), pT3-T4 (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.41-2.22, p<0.001), lymph node status (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.21-1.95, p<0.001), and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.01-1.62, p=0.044). The areas under the curve in the validation dataset were 79.3%, 69.6%, and 76.2%, for 1-, 5-, and 10-year RFS, respectively. Calibration plots showed considerable correspondence between predicted and actual survival probabilities. The decision curve analysis revealed a better net benefit of the nomogram.Conclusion: A nomogram with good discrimination, validation, and clinical utility was constructed utilizing TTC and PBT in addition to standard pathological criteria.展开更多
BACKGROUND At present,liver transplantation(LT)is one of the best treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Accurately predicting the survival status after LT can significantly improve the survival rate after LT,an...BACKGROUND At present,liver transplantation(LT)is one of the best treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Accurately predicting the survival status after LT can significantly improve the survival rate after LT,and ensure the best way to make rational use of liver organs.AIM To develop a model for predicting prognosis after LT in patients with HCC.METHODS Clinical data and follow-up information of 160 patients with HCC who underwent LT were collected and evaluated.The expression levels of alphafetoprotein(AFP),des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin,Golgi protein 73,cytokeratin-18 epitopes M30 and M65 were measured using a fully automated chemiluminescence analyzer.The best cutoff value of biomarkers was determined using the Youden index.Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors.A forest model was constructed using the random forest method.We evaluated the accuracy of the nomogram using the area under the curve,using the calibration curve to assess consistency.A decision curve analysis(DCA)was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomograms.RESULTS The total tumor diameter(TTD),vascular invasion(VI),AFP,and cytokeratin-18 epitopes M30(CK18-M30)were identified as important risk factors for outcome after LT.The nomogram had a higher predictive accuracy than the Milan,University of California,San Francisco,and Hangzhou criteria.The calibration curve analyses indicated a good fit.The survival and recurrence-free survival(RFS)of high-risk groups were significantly lower than those of low-and middle-risk groups(P<0.001).The DCA shows that the model has better clinical practicability.CONCLUSION The study developed a predictive nomogram based on TTD,VI,AFP,and CK18-M30 that could accurately predict overall survival and RFS after LT.It can screen for patients with better postoperative prognosis,and improve longterm survival for LT patients.展开更多
文摘Background:The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladderpreserving surgery.This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence.Methods:The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected.The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis.A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables.The C-index,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence.Results:During the follow-up period,a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence,and the recurrence rate was 35.5%.Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones>2 years[odds ratio(OR)=2.567,95%confidence interval(CI):1.270-5.187,P=0.009],symptomatic gallstones(OR=2.589,95%CI:1.059-6.329,P=0.037),multiple gallstones(OR=2.436,95%CI:1.133-5.237,P=0.023),history of acute cholecystitis(OR=2.778,95%CI:1.178-6.549,P=0.020)and a greasy diet(OR=2.319,95%CI:1.186-4.535,P=0.014)were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery.A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables.The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692,suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence.Moreover,the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability.Conclusions:The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might help clinicians develop a proper treatment strategy for patients with gallstones.Gallbladder-preserving surgery should be cautiously considered for patients with high recurrence risks.
文摘Objective: To develop and internally validate a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) including the time to radical cystectomy (RC) and perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) as potential predictors.Methods: Patients who underwent open RC and ileal conduit between January 1996 to December 2016 were split into developing (n=948) and validating (n=237) cohorts. The time to radical cystectomy (TTC) was defined as the interval between the onset of symptoms and RC. The regression coefficients of the independent predictors obtained by Cox regression were used to construct the nomogram. Discrimination, validation, and clinical usefulness in the validation cohort were assessed by the area under the curve, the calibration plot, and decision curve analysis.Results: In the developing dataset, the 1-, 5-, and 10-year RFS were 83.0%, 47.2%, and 44.4%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, independent predictors were TTC (hazards ratio [HR] 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.08, p<0.001), PBT (one unit: HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.03-1.90, p=0.03;two or more units: HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.29-2.29, p<0.001), bilateral hydronephrosis (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.21-1.97, p<0.001), squamous cell carcinoma (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.45-0.81, p=0.001), pT3-T4 (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.41-2.22, p<0.001), lymph node status (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.21-1.95, p<0.001), and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.01-1.62, p=0.044). The areas under the curve in the validation dataset were 79.3%, 69.6%, and 76.2%, for 1-, 5-, and 10-year RFS, respectively. Calibration plots showed considerable correspondence between predicted and actual survival probabilities. The decision curve analysis revealed a better net benefit of the nomogram.Conclusion: A nomogram with good discrimination, validation, and clinical utility was constructed utilizing TTC and PBT in addition to standard pathological criteria.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81372595 and No.81972696.
文摘BACKGROUND At present,liver transplantation(LT)is one of the best treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).Accurately predicting the survival status after LT can significantly improve the survival rate after LT,and ensure the best way to make rational use of liver organs.AIM To develop a model for predicting prognosis after LT in patients with HCC.METHODS Clinical data and follow-up information of 160 patients with HCC who underwent LT were collected and evaluated.The expression levels of alphafetoprotein(AFP),des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin,Golgi protein 73,cytokeratin-18 epitopes M30 and M65 were measured using a fully automated chemiluminescence analyzer.The best cutoff value of biomarkers was determined using the Youden index.Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors.A forest model was constructed using the random forest method.We evaluated the accuracy of the nomogram using the area under the curve,using the calibration curve to assess consistency.A decision curve analysis(DCA)was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomograms.RESULTS The total tumor diameter(TTD),vascular invasion(VI),AFP,and cytokeratin-18 epitopes M30(CK18-M30)were identified as important risk factors for outcome after LT.The nomogram had a higher predictive accuracy than the Milan,University of California,San Francisco,and Hangzhou criteria.The calibration curve analyses indicated a good fit.The survival and recurrence-free survival(RFS)of high-risk groups were significantly lower than those of low-and middle-risk groups(P<0.001).The DCA shows that the model has better clinical practicability.CONCLUSION The study developed a predictive nomogram based on TTD,VI,AFP,and CK18-M30 that could accurately predict overall survival and RFS after LT.It can screen for patients with better postoperative prognosis,and improve longterm survival for LT patients.
