Risk factors and metabolic abnormality of patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Either non-obese or obese Chinese population

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) occurs not only in obese individuals but also in non-obese ones. The aim of this study was to focus on the association between NAFLD and metabolic events in a non-obese or obese Chinese population.Methods: Data collected from subjects registered at Taichung Veterans General Hospital from January to December 2009 were analyzed. The exclusion criteria were alcoholics, chronic hepatitis B or C. Patients included in analyses were assigned to four groups according to sonography of their liver(normal or NAFLD), and body mass index(BMI) levels(non-obese if BMI < 25 kg/m~2 or obese if BMI ≥ 25 kg/m~2).Results: There were 745, 208, 770 and 285 patients enrolled in four groups labeled non-obese normal liver(group A), non-obese NAFLD(group B), obese normal liver(group C) and obese NAFLD(group D),respectively. The highest ratio of metabolic syndrome existed in the group B(26.9%), followed by group A(11.7%), group D(10.9%) and finally the group C(5.2%). The positive association with NAFLD in non-obese individuals was significant in triglyceride(OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01–1.02) and glucose(OR = 1.02; 95% CI:1.01–1.03), while the positive association with NAFLD in obese subjects was only significant in triglyceride(OR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.01–1.02). The positive association was most significant in all cases(adjusted OR = 2.41; 95% CI: 1.78–3.24), especially in non-obese individuals(OR = 2.81; 95% CI: 1.92–4.12).Conclusions: Non-obese NAFLD subjects displayed a higher proportion of metabolic abnormality. Hyperlipidemia and hyperglycemia had the most positive strength association with NAFLD.

Population distribution and threats to sustainable management of selected non-timber forest products in tropical lowland rainforests of south western Nigeria

Uncontrolled harvesting of non-timber forest products （NTFPs） poses a serious risk of extermination to several of these species in Nigeria. Yet, there is a paucity of information on the distribution, population status and sustainable management of NTFPs in most of the tropical lowland rainforests. We, therefore, assessed the population, distribution and threats to sustainable management of NTFPs within the tropical lowland rainforests of Omo and Shasha Forest Reserves, south western Nigeria. Data were obtained through inventory surveys on five top priority species including： bush mango （Irvingia gabonensis （Aubry-Lecomte ex O’Rorke） Baill）, African walnut （Tetracarpidium conophorum （Mull. Arg.） Hutch. ＆ Dalziel syn. Plukenetia conophora）, chew-stick （Massularia acuminata （G. Don） Bullock）, fever bark （Annickia chlorantha Setten ＆ P.J.Maas syn. Enantia chloranta） and bush pepper （Piper guineense Schumach. ＆ Thonn.）. Purposive and stratified random sampling techniques were used for the inventory. Each forest reserve was stratified into three, viz： less disturbed natural forest （for areas that have been rested for at least ten years）, recently disturbed natural forest （for areas that have suffered one form of human perturbation or the other in the last five years）, and plantation forest （for areas carrying forest plantation）. Data were collected from eighteen 10 m × 500 m belt transects located in the above strata. The species were generally fewer in both plantation and recently disturbed natural forest than the less disturbed natural forest, suggesting that forest disturbances （habitat modification） for other uses may have an effect on the occurrence and densities of the NTFPs. Exceptions to this trend were found for P. guineense and T. conophorum, which were fairly common in both plantation and recently disturbed natural forest. Among three tree NTFP species （i.e. I. gabonensis, M. acuminata and A. chlorantha）, only I. gabonensis showed a significant difference in overall DBH size classes for both reserves （t=？2.404; df =21; p=0.026）. Three tree NTFP species in both reserves further showed differences from the regular patterns of distribution of trees. The fairly regular reverse J-shaped size class distribution observed for M. acuminata in the study sites, however, suggests a recuperating population. In general, destructive harvesting of species, logging operations, low population size, narrow distribution ranges and habitat degradation are the major threats to the population of NTFPs in the study area. The implications of our findings for sustainable management of NTFPs in the study area are discussed and recommendations are made for a feasible approach towards enhancing the status of the species.

Bayesian Reliability——Growth Analysis for Statistical of Diverse Population Based on Non-homogeneous Poisson Process

New armament systems are subjected to the method for dealing with multi-stage system reliability-growth statistical problems of diverse population in order to improve reliability before starting mass production. Aiming at the test process which is high expense and small sample-size in the development of complex system, the specific methods are studied on how to process the statistical information of Bayesian reliability growth regarding diverse populations. Firstly, according to the characteristics of reliability growth during product development, the Bayesian method is used to integrate the testing information of multi-stage and the order relations of distribution parameters. And then a Gamma-Beta prior distribution is proposed based on non-homogeneous Poisson process（NHPP） corresponding to the reliability growth process. The posterior distribution of reliability parameters is obtained regarding different stages of product, and the reliability parameters are evaluated based on the posterior distribution. Finally, Bayesian approach proposed in this paper for multi-stage reliability growth test is applied to the test process which is small sample-size in the astronautics filed. The results of a numerical example show that the presented model can make use of the diverse information synthetically, and pave the way for the application of the Bayesian model for multi-stage reliability growth test evaluation with small sample-size. The method is useful for evaluating multi-stage system reliability and making reliability growth plan rationally.

Population dynamics of excited atoms in non-Markovian environments at zero and finite temperature

The population dynamics of a two-atom system, which is in two independent Lorentzian reservoirs or in two independent Ohmic reservoirs respectively, where the reservoirs are at zero temperature or finite temperature, is studied by using the time-convolutionless master-equation method. The influences of the characteristics and temperature of a non-Markovian environment on the population of the excited atoms are analyzed. We find that the population trapping of the excited atoms is related to the characteristics and the temperature of the non-Markovian environment. The results show that, at zero temperature, the two atoms can be effectively trapped in the excited state both in the Lorentzian reservoirs and in the Ohmic reservoirs. At finite temperature, the population of the excited atoms will quickly decay to a nonzero value.

Effect on Landau damping rates for a non-Maxwellian distribution function consisting of two electron populations

In many physical situations where a laser or electron beam passes through a dense plasma,hot low-density electron populations can be generated,resulting in a particle distribution function consisting of a dense cold population and a small hot population.Presence of such low-density electron distributions can alter the wave damping rate.A kinetic model is employed to study the Landau damping of Langmuir waves when a small hot electron population is present in the dense cold electron population with non-Maxwellian distribution functions.Departure of plasma from Maxwellian distributions significantly alters the damping rates as compared to the Maxwellian plasma.Strong damping is found for highly nonMaxwellian distributions as well as plasmas with a higher density and hot electron population.Existence of weak damping is also established when the distribution contains broadened flat tops at the low energies or tends to be Maxwellian.These results may be applied in both experimental and space physics regimes.

Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on the Treatment Outcomes of Chemotherapy in Women with Breast Cancer——A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

There are few population-based data in investigating the impact of diabetes on chemotherapy adverse effects and treatment outcomes of non-metastatic breast cancer. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether diabetes affects the patterns of use in chemotherapy, toxic effects of chemotherapy, and treatment outcomes for non-metastatic breast cancer in Taiwan. The study results can provide physicians for making a decision whether or not to use chemotherapy based on the individual patients＇ condition.

务农情境下的工作—家庭冲突研究

本文基于CSS2021年的数据讨论了务农情境下的工作—家庭冲突。研究发现,双向工作—家庭冲突,即“工作对家庭干扰”(WIF)和“家庭对工作干扰”(FIW)不仅存在于非农群体中,也存在于务农群体中。务农群体FIW水平甚至超过了非农群体。在不同的情境中,工作—家庭冲突水平不同,影响因素也不同。因此,在工作—家庭冲突研究、工作—家庭平衡研究和工作—家庭增益研究中,无论是质性研究还是量化研究,都应该将务农群体纳入研究视野;在政策制定层面,国家应关注务农群体在工作—家庭平衡上的需求,他们不仅面临着工作—家庭冲突的困扰,也相对更为脆弱,更需要政策支持。

非肥胖人群胆结石检出率与危险因素分析

目的调查非肥胖体检人群胆结石检出率及其危险因素。方法2021年1月~2021年12月西安交通大学第二附属医院健康管理中心参加体检的非肥胖人群(BMI≤24 kg/m^(2)),行腹部超声和血生化检测。结果2021年度参加体检人群66221例,超重人群31427例,发现胆结石1591例(5.1%),有胆囊切除术862例(2.7%),非肥胖人群34794例,发现胆结石1309例(3.8%),胆囊切除术657例(1.9%),两组差异显著(P<0.001);非肥胖胆结石患者女性、年龄大、高BMI占比高,SBP、DBP、FBG、TG、TC、LDL-C、UA、ALT、AST、ALP、GGT、TBIL水平和合并脂肪肝者更高(P<0.001);采用多因素Logistic回归分析显示年龄、女性、BMI、FBG、GGT和脂肪肝是非肥胖人群胆结石发生的独立危险因素,而HDL-C则为保护性因素(P<0.001);非肥胖胆结石患者女性占65.0%,≥45岁者占62.4%,高SBP占32.7%,低HDL-C占29.4%、高LDL-C占27.3%、高TG占24.6%、高DBP占21.3%、高TC占21.3%、高FBG占19.6%、脂肪肝占16.8%和高UA占16.0%。结论非肥胖人群胆结石检出率显著低于超重人群,但这些人群中的女性、血糖、血脂代谢紊乱和合并脂肪肝者仍可存在胆结石,需要注意监测和防治。

考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失评估

洪涝灾害是对我国影响最大的自然灾害之一。聚焦灾害损失评估问题,本文构建了考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数。一方面,表征灾害损失随着致灾因子强度先递增、而后增幅趋缓的静态S型曲线关系;另一方面,通过量级、形状和位置三个参数综合考虑灾害损失随时间的动态变化情况。基于《中国水旱灾害防御公报》提供的受灾人口、直接经济损失数据,对于各省级行政区2006—2021年洪涝灾害损失进行评估分析。结果表明:通过拟合洪涝灾害损失函数,洪涝灾害损失关于致灾因子强度和时间的三维空间散点图可有效地拓展成为连续的三维空间曲面及二维空间热力图。各省级行政区受灾人口整体上呈现出逐年下降的特征,但随致灾因子强度的增加而趋于增加。各省级行政区直接经济损失则表现出明显的差异,随时间呈现出大幅下降、缓慢下降和略有增加等不同特征。考虑时间变化的洪涝灾害损失函数是变化环境下灾害评估的有效工具,可为区域洪涝灾情评估提供借鉴和参考。

非HIV感染人群肺隐球菌病29例临床特征分析

目的 总结非人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染人群肺隐球菌病的临床特点和诊治方法,提高临床医师对该病的认识和诊治水平。方法 回顾性分析2016—2021年江西省人民医院确诊的29例非HIV人群肺隐球菌病的临床资料,包括临床症状、实验室检查、肺部影像学资料及治疗、转归情况。结果 29例患者中男21例,女8例,中位年龄为56.5岁。基础疾病情况:肾移植术后5例(5/29),自身免疫系统疾病9例(9/29),糖尿病2(2/29),脾切除1例(1/29),无任何相关基础疾病12例(12/29)。首发症状常见为:咳嗽10例(10/29)、胸痛6例(6/29)、发热5例(5/29);肺部影像表现为结节肿块型19例,浸润型10例,混和型3例。29例患者气管镜灌洗液隐球菌荚膜多糖抗原检测阳性24例(24/29),外周血隐球菌荚膜多糖抗原阳性20例(20/29),脑脊液隐球菌荚膜多糖抗原阳性3例(3/29)。29例患者通过气管镜灌洗及活检确诊8例,手术切除确诊6例,经皮肺穿刺活组织检查确诊5例,另外10例通过血清学及治疗后随访临床确诊。29例患者均按照指南规范治疗,疗程6~12个月不等,治愈25例,失败4例(其中3例为免疫缺陷宿主,1例因经济原因放弃治疗)。结论 非HIV人群肺隐球菌病临床症状不典型,需重视血清学的隐球菌荚膜多糖抗原检测,必要时需要行电子气管镜、经皮肺穿刺等有创检查明确诊断,经过规范治疗大多数患者预后良好。

科技创新应对健康挑战

随着全球化、人口老龄化趋势的加剧和全球气候变化,人类面临的健康挑战日益复杂。全球化带来了全球性健康问题的出现,传染病的传播速度和范围明显增加,影响更加深远;气候变化不仅直接影响着人类健康,还通过改变生态系统和病媒生物分布等方式间接增加传染病暴发风险;与此同时,人口老龄化使得慢性非传染性疾病负担持续攀升,共病等复杂健康问题日益凸显,给医疗卫生健康系统和社会服务保障系统均带来了巨大挑战。而科技创新为应对这些挑战提供了前所未有的机遇,从精准医学到人工智能(AI),科技的进步正重塑健康管理范式。科技创新不仅是现代医学发展的引擎,更是应对未来健康问题的关键。未来应加强卫生健康体系建设、创新医防协同及医防融合机制、加强科技攻关与创新、AI赋能基层能力提升,以更好地应对健康挑战,增进人类福祉。

陕西省延安市成年人群血清n-HDL-C水平参考区间的建立及影响因素分析

目的建立陕西省延安市成年人血清非高密度脂蛋白-胆固醇(non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol,n-HDL-C)的参考区间并分析影响因素。方法采用随机整体抽样的方法,抽取2023年1~9月陕西省延安市10个乡镇16921例成人为研究对象。调查年龄、性别、吸烟、饮酒、锻炼、高血压、糖尿病、血脂异常、慢性病、居住、饮食习惯、婚姻状况、文化程度、月收入等。测量身高、体重、腰围和血压。检测血清三酰甘油(TG)、总胆固醇(TCHO)、高密度脂蛋白-胆固醇(HDL-C)、低密度脂蛋白-胆固醇(LDL-C)、载脂蛋白A1(ApoA1)、载脂蛋白B(ApoB)及脂蛋白a[Lp(a)]水平,计算n-HDL-C水平,n-HDL-C(mmol/L)=TCHO(mmol/L)-HDL-C(mmol/L)。按照WS/T402-2012《中华人民共和国卫生行业标准》建议的百分位数法计算95%参考区间(P_(2.5)~P_(97.5))。采用多因素Logistic回归分析影响血清n-HDL-C水平的影响因素。结果男性和女性血清n-HDL-C水平均呈非正态分布(S=2.119,2.091,均P<0.001)。男性>60岁血清n-HDL-C水平[2.98(2.50,3.37)mmol/L]与18~30岁[2.84(2.49,3.26)mmol/L],31~40岁[2.98(2.62,3.42)mmol/L],41~50岁[3.10(2.62,3.47)mmol/L]和51~60岁[3.05(2.64,3.46)mmol/L]比较,差异具有统计学意义(H=3.618~5.680,均P<0.05);女性51~60岁血清n-HDL-C水平[3.08(2.71,3.44)mmol/L]与18~30岁[2.64(2.29,3.07)mmol/L],31~40岁[2.67(2.31,3.08)mmol/L],41~50岁[2.94(2.58,3.29)mmol/L]比较(H=8.161~13.445,均P<0.001),>60岁血清n-HDL-C水平[2.98(2.57,3.34)mmol/L]与18~30岁、31~40岁、41~50岁比较,差异具有统计学意义(H=7.985~14.018,均P<0.001)。将无统计学意义的年龄组合并,得到成年人群血清n-HDL-C水平参考区间:男性18~60岁(1.97~3.97mmol/L),>60岁(1.86~3.91mmol/L);女性18~50岁(1.82~3.74mmol/L),>50岁(1.94~3.88mmol/L)。将纳入的16921例成人分为n-HDL-C水平正常组和异常组,两组血清TG(1.02±0.31 mmol/L vs 1.24±0.37mmol/L),TCHO(3.97±1.02 mmol/L vs 4.66±1.25 mmol/L),LDL-C(2.37±0.58mmol/L vs 2.59±0.67 mmol/L)水平及年龄(43.55±11.52岁vs 46.27±8.13岁)比较,差异具有统计学意义(t=2.041~3.151,均P<0.05),血清n-HDL-C水平异常率42.50%。经多因素Logistic回归分析,男性、锻炼缺乏、超重和肥胖、血脂异常、城市居民、高中及以上学历是该地区成年人血清n-HDL-C水平的影响因素(均P<0.05)。结论初步建立了该地区成年人血清n-HDL-C水平参考区间,男性、锻炼缺乏、超重和肥胖、血脂异常、城市居民、高中及以上学历是该地区成年人血清n-HDL-C水平异常的影响因素。

非剥脱点阵激光联合侧柏叶酊对斑秃小鼠IL-7/IL-7Rα信号通路和Tregs细胞亚群的影响

目的:研究1565 nm非剥脱点阵激光联合侧柏叶酊(Platycladus orientalis tincture,POT)对斑秃(Alopecia areata,AA)小鼠治疗作用以及对白细胞介素7(Interleukin 7,IL-7)/白细胞介素7受体α(Interleukin-7 receptorα,IL-7Rα)信号通路和调节性T细胞(Regulatory T cells,Tregs)亚群的影响。方法:将50只成年雄性C3H/HeJ小鼠随机分为对照组(C组),模型组[M组,环磷酰胺(Cyclophosphamide,CTX)诱导AA模型],M+1565 nm组(1565 nm非剥脱点阵激光治疗AA),M+POT组(POT治疗AA)、M+1565 nm+POT组(1565 nm非剥脱点阵激光联合POT治疗AA),每组10只。流式细胞术检测C组和M组皮损组织中Tregs细胞亚群的比例和所有组血液中单个核细胞中Tregs细胞亚群的比例。Western blot法检测各组小鼠皮损组织中IL-7和IL-7Rα的表达。结果:与C组比,M组皮肤组织IL-7和IL-7Rα的表达均明显增加,而且Tregs细胞比例明显减少(P<0.05)。与M组比,M+1565 nm组和M+POT组IL-7的表达均降低(P<0.05)。与M组比,M+1565 nm+POT组IL-7和IL-7Rα的表达均降低,且Tregs细胞比例都显著增加(P<0.05)。结论:1565 nm非剥脱点阵激光联合POT治疗可以抑制斑秃小鼠IL-7/IL-7Rα信号并减少Tregs细胞的比例。

血清铁蛋白和转铁蛋白饱和度与非贫血人群死亡风险的相关性分析

目的探讨非贫血人群血清铁蛋白(serum ferritin,SF)和转铁蛋白饱和度(transferrin saturation,TSAT)与全因死亡和心血管死亡的相关性。方法选取1999—2000年和2001—2002年国家健康和营养检查调查研究(national health and nutrition examination survey,NHANES)的非贫血人群7167例,于2006年12月31日前对死亡终点进行随访,采用阈值效应分析和多因素cox回归模型分析SF和TAST与全因死亡和心血管死亡风险的相关性。结果7167例患者中男3533例、女3634例,年龄18~85岁,平均(46.1±20.0)岁,BMI平均(27.9±6.2)kg/m2。平均随访(5.1±1.2)年,共随访11623人/年,其中全因死亡452例、心血管死亡117例。SF与全因死亡和心血管死亡呈非线性相关,SF的截断值为200 ng/ml;当SF<200 ng/ml时,SF每增加100 ng/ml,全因死亡风险增加25%(HR=1.252,95%CI:1.068~1.486,P=0.008),心血管死亡风险增加37%(HR=1.370,95%CI:1.076~1.900,P=0.036)。TSAT与全因死亡率呈L型非线性相关,截断值为30%,当TSAT<30%时,TSAT每增加10%,全因死亡风险降低21%(HR=0.791,95%CI:0.681~0.914,P=0.001);TSAT与心血管死亡风险呈线性负相关(HR=0.803,95%CI:0.660~0.963,P=0.014)。结论非贫血人群的SF与全因死亡和心血管死亡呈非线性相关、截断值为200 ng/ml,TSAT与全因死亡呈L型相关、截断值为30%,且TSAT与心血管死亡呈负相关。建议将非贫血人群的SF与TSAT控制在合适范围,以降低死亡风险,并改善预后。

县域耕地非农化、非粮化与乡村人口空心化的耦合协调关系——以长江经济带为例

耕地非农化、非粮化的不断扩大严重影响了我国的粮食安全,亟需研究其演变机制和管控措施。基于1990、2000、2010和2020年四期土地覆盖数据和农业劳动力数据,利用耦合协调度模型和探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA)方法,分析了长江经济带县域耕地非农化、非粮化和乡村人口空心化的时空演化特征及其耦合协调关系。结果表明:(1)非农化呈现东高西低的格局,且存在围绕中心城市高值集聚的态势。非粮化则大致呈现出西高东低的倾向,远离大城市的边远县域非粮化程度较高。研究期内非农化和非粮化呈整体加剧趋势,乡村人口空心化程度显著提升。(2)非农化、非粮化和乡村人口空心化之间呈现较强耦合作用,失调区域逐渐扩大。(3)非农化、非粮化和乡村人口空心化耦合协调度存在明显的空间集聚现象并逐渐增强。高值集聚区主要分布在上游地区且数量逐渐减少,低值集聚区分布相对分散。(4)非农化、非粮化和乡村人口空心化耦合协调度具有较强时空动态特征,但县域及其邻域协同变动的比例较高,表明具有较强的局域整合性。

非酒精性脂肪性肝病检出率现状及其影响因素:基于北京市32万人群数据

背景非酒精性脂肪性肝病(NAFLD)患病率高,且逐年上升,有向低龄化发展的趋势。通过体检尽早发现并加以干预,对减少其危害具有较大公共卫生意义。目的探究2018—2021年北京市体检人群中NAFLD检出情况,并分析其相关的影响因素。方法依据纳入标准选取2018—2021年在北京市体检中心接受健康体检的人群为研究对象。收集其体格检查、实验室检查和肝脏超声检查结果。采用t检验或秩和检验、χ^(2)检验进行单因素分析,利用非条件多因素Logistic回归探究发生NAFLD的影响因素。结果最终纳入研究325726人,其中NAFLD检出108512例,检出率为33.31%;按照肝脏超声诊断结果,轻、中、重度NAFLD检出人数分别为74062、33281、1169例,分别占检出人群的68.25%、30.67%、1.08%。男性NAFLD检出率高于女性(χ^(2)=17518.893,P<0.05)。趋势性χ^(2)检验结果显示,在70岁之前,NAFLD检出率随着年龄的增大而增大,70岁之后NAFLD检出率下降(χ^(2)_(趋势)=14397.61,P<0.001)。在18~59岁人群中,男性NAFLD检出率均高于女性(P<0.05);≥70岁人群中,男性NAFLD检出率均低于女性(P<0.05)。非条件多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,性别(男:OR=1.173)、年龄(30~39岁:OR=1.604,40~49岁:OR=1.948,50~59岁:OR=2.486,60~69岁:OR=2.663,70~79岁:OR=2.079,≥80岁:OR=1.149)、BMI(18.5~23.9 kg/m^(2):OR=2.997,24.0~27.9 kg/m^(2):OR=3.911,≥28.0 kg/m^(2):OR=11.780)、收缩压(SBP)(≥140 mmHg:OR=1.200)、舒张压(DBP)(≥90 mmHg:OR=1.177)、空腹血糖(FBG)(≥6.10 mmol/L:OR=1.934)、三酰甘油(TG)(≥1.70 mmol/L:OR=2.946)、总胆固醇(TC)(≥5.20 mmol/L:OR=1.050)、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)(<1.0 mmol/L:OR=1.645)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)(≥3.4 mmol/L:OR=1.499)、血尿酸(SUA)(男性>420μmol/L、女性>360μmol/L:OR=2.067)是发生NAFLD的影响因素(P<0.05)。结论北京市18岁以上体检人群NAFLD检出率约占33.31%,其中50~69岁是NAFLD高发人群,男性、超重、肥胖者是高危人群,血脂、血压、血糖异常也为NAFLD的危险因素。

用NONMEM法建立中国癫痫儿童丙戊酸钠的群体药动学/药效学结合模型

目的:建立中国癫痫儿童应用丙戊酸钠(VPA)的群体药动学药效学(PPKPD)结合模型,为设计个体化用药方案奠定基础。方法:回顾性收集246例癫痫患儿应用VPA的临床数据。血药浓度是常规监测的稳态浓度。用246例患儿的数据,通过NONMEM法已经自行成功建立PPK模型。现将246例中单用VPA的69例的数据与已经建立的PPK模型结合,建立PPKPD模型。药效指标用癫痫发作次数减少百分比,分为5级。应用Logistic回归分析,拟合线性药效模型,用NONMEM法建立PPKPD模型,求算血药浓度获得某一级疗效的概率。结果:应用Logistic回归分析,拟合线性药效模型,求算出血药浓度获得某一级疗效的概率:血药浓度超过23μg·ml-1时,5级的概率小于50%,获得4、3、2级的最大概率及浓度为(30μg·ml-1,32.3%)、(50μg·ml-1,26.3%)、(65μg·ml-1,36.5%);血药浓度超过78μg·ml-1时,1级的概率大于50%;浓度为100μg·ml-1时,1级的概率约84.2%。结论:用NONMEM法成功地建立了中国癫痫儿童应用VPA的PPKPD模型,定量地求出某一血药浓度获得不同疗效等级的概率。

基于遗传粒子群算法的输电线路非接触电压测量测点寻优与反演计算

电压非接触测量对新型电力系统的输电线路智能化、数字化,实时表征线路健康状况具有重要意义。目前非接触电压测量中存在测点位置不好确定、计算精度不高及受环境噪声影响大等问题,严重制约了非接触电压测量方法的工程应用。在此,提出了一种融合遗传算法和粒子群算法的输电线路传感器测点寻优以及电压反演计算方法。首先,为降低电磁干扰对非接触测量的影响,根据电场耦合测量原理,以观测矩阵条件数为适应度函数,对电场传感器观测点寻优;其次,以线下电场强度理论与实测差值为目标函数,应用遗传粒子群算法进行反演电压计算;最后,在搭建的三相试验平台下进行测试。结果表明,在施加10%的电磁噪声下,电压测量误差小于5%,电压逆计算结果受到的环境噪声干扰减小了12.9%。

规模以下工业企业抽样调查的权数调整研究

为解决规模以下工业企业估计中的问题,对现有的权数调整范围进行了拓展,以期提高对规模以下工业企业的估计精度。一方面,解决目录企业的非自然消亡问题。分别讨论样本单元非自然消亡和样本层非自然消亡两种情况,将非自然消亡视为一种单元无回答,引入样本匹配方法,选择最为“相近”的正常上报企业与非自然消亡企业匹配,把非自然消亡的样本企业权数调整到正常上报的样本企业中。另一方面,解决非目录企业的估计偏差问题。分别讨论了基于超总体模型估计和倾向得分逆加权估计的权数调整思路,超总体模型估计选取了线性和非线性两种。倾向得分逆加权估计中,重点研究了倾向得分的求解,基于GBM(Generalized Boosted Model)算法,在其迭代求解过程中引入了权重,提出了w-GBM算法,同时提出将参数估计方法中的Logistic回归估计和非参数估计方法中的w-GBM算法或GBM算法进行加权的组合估计方法。实证结果表明,以上思路具有可行性。

北京市非中心城区土地利用-人口-经济协同预测

非首都功能的疏解政策涉及城市化建设、经济、人口等多个方面,当前的预测研究多针对单一的空间要素进行模拟和预测,而未关注到城市发展中多个空间要素相互交织的影响。本文将北京市非中心城区作为研究区,以多年度土地利用数据、GDP格网数据和人口格网数据为基础,通过PLUS模型和SCS方法,以多要素协同模拟的方式模拟了规划情景下2030年的土地利用格局,以及2030年GDP-人口公里格网数据,并计算了时空与总量变化特征。结果显示:①在生态优先的政策情景下,北京市非中心城区的林草地及水体将会扩张但整体扩张趋势不明显;②政策指导下,2020—2030年研究区人口与GDP承载了中心区的外溢,经济与人口都实现了高质量发展。本文的研究为城市化建设、人口监控管理和资源优化配置提供了科学参考。