A Bayesian Updating Method for Non-Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of Structures with Performance Test Data

For structures that only the predicted bounds of uncertainties are available,this study proposes a Bayesianmethod to logically evaluate the nonprobabilistic reliability of structures based on multi-ellipsoid convex model and performance test data.According to the given interval ranges of uncertainties,we determine the initial characteristic parameters of a multi-ellipsoid convex set.Moreover,to update the plausibility of characteristic parameters,a Bayesian network for the information fusion of prior uncertainty knowledge and subsequent performance test data is constructed.Then,an updated multi-ellipsoid set with the maximum likelihood of the performance test data can be achieved.The credible non-probabilistic reliability index is calculated based on the Kriging-based surrogate model of the performance function.Several numerical examples are presented to validate the proposed Bayesian updating method.

Fatigue reliability based on residual strength model with hybrid uncertain parameters

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the fatigue reliability with hybrid uncertain parameters based on a residual strength model. By solving the non-probabilistic setbased reliability problem and analyzing the reliability with randomness, the fatigue reliability with hybrid parameters can be obtained. The presented hybrid model can adequately consider all uncertainties affecting the fatigue reliability with hybrid uncertain parameters. A comparison among the presented hybrid model, non-probabilistic set-theoretic model and the conventional random model is made through two typical numerical examples. The results show that the presented hybrid model, which can ensure structural security, is effective and practical.

Non-Probabilistic Reliability Research on Multi-Variable Hydraulic Turbine Blade Model

Based on the interval mathematics and possibility theory, the variables existing in hydraulic turbine blade are described. Considering the multi-failure mode in turbine blade, multi-variable model is established to meet the actual situation. Thus, non-probabilistic reliability index is presented by comparing with the output range and the given range.

Theoretical analysis of non-probabilistic reliability based on interval model

The aim of this paper is to propose a theoretical approach for performing the nonprobabilistic reliability analysis of structure.Due to a great deal of uncertainties and limited measured data in engineering practice,the structural uncertain parameters were described as interval variables.The theoretical analysis model was developed by starting from the 2-D plane and 3-D space.In order to avoid the loss of probable failure points,the 2-D plane and 3-D space were respectively divided into two parts and three parts for further analysis.The study pointed out that the probable failure points only existed among extreme points and root points of the limit state function.Furthermore,the low-dimensional analytical scheme was extended to the high-dimensional case.Using the proposed approach,it is easy to find the most probable failure point and to acquire the reliability index through simple comparison directly.A number of equations used for calculating the extreme points and root points were also evaluated.This result was useful to avoid the loss of probable failure points and meaningful for optimizing searches in the research field.Finally,two kinds of examples were presented and compared with the existing computation.The good agreements show that the proposed theoretical analysis approach in the paper is correct.The efforts were conducted to improve the optimization method,to indicate the search direction and path,and to avoid only searching the local optimal solution which would result in missed probable failure points.

Convex Set Theory for Reliability Assessment of Steel Beam with Bounded Uncertainty

Probabilistic reliability model established by insufficient data is inaccessible. The convex model was applied to model the uncertainties of variables. A new non-probabilistic reliability model was proposed based on the robustness of system to uncertainty. The non-probabilistic reliability model,the infinite norm model,and the probabilistic model were used to assess the reliability of a steel beam,respectively. The results show that the resistance is allowed to couple with the action effect in the non-probabilistic reliability model. Additionally,the non-probabilistic reliability model becomes the same accurate as probabilistic model with the increase of the bounded uncertain information. The model is decided by the available data and information.