Remaining useful life estimation based on Wiener degradation processes with random failure threshold

Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation.

THE CONSTRUCTION OF DENUMERABLE q-PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS-THE EXISTENCE AND UNIQUENESS

The concepts of Markov process in random environment, q-matrix in random environment, and q-process in random environment are introduced. The minimal q-process in random environment is constructed and the necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniqueness of q-process in random environment are given.

THE CONSTRUCTION OF DENUMERABLE q-PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS SATISFYING (F) OR (B)

This article is a continuation of[9].Based on the discussion of random Kolmogorov forward（backward）equations,for any given q-matrix in random environment, Q（θ）=（q（θ;x,y）,x,y∈X）,an infinite class of q-processes in random environments satisfying the random Kolmogorov forward（backward）equation is constructed.Moreover, under some conditions,all the q-processes in random environments satisfying the random Kolmogorov forward（backward）equation are constructed.

THE ERGODICITY FOR BI-IMMIGRATION BIRTH AND DEATH PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT

The concepts of bi-immigration birth and death density matrix in random environment and bi-immigration birth and death process in random environment are introduced. For any bi-immigration birth and death matrix in random environment Q（θ） with birth rate λ 〈 death rate μ, the following results are proved, （1） there is an unique q-process in random environment, P^-（θ＊（0）;t） = （p^-（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j）,i,j ≥ 0）, which is ergodic, that is, lim t→∞（θ^＊（0）;t,i,j） = π^-（θ^＊（0）;j） ≥0 does not depend on i ≥ 0 and ∑j≥0π （θ＊（0）;j） = 1, （2） there is a bi-immigration birth and death process in random enjvironment （X^＊ = {X^＊,t ≥ 0},ε^＊ = {εt,t ∈ （-∞, ∞）}） with random transition matrix P^-（θ^＊ （0）;t） such that X^＊ is a strictly stationary process.

MOMENTS OF CONTINUOUS-STATE BRANCHING PROCESSES IN LéVY RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS

For continuous-state branching processes in Lévy random environments, the recursion of n-moments and the equivalent condition for the existence of general f-moments are established, where f is a positive continuous function satisfying some standard conditions.

MOMENTS AND LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR SUPERCRITICAL BRANCHING PROCESSES WITH IMMIGRATION IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS

Let(Z_(n))be a branching process with immigration in a random environmentξ,whereξis an independent and identically distributed sequence of random variables.We show asymptotic properties for all the moments of Z_(n) and describe the decay rates of the n-step transition probabilities.As applications,a large deviation principle for the sequence log Z_(n) is established,and related large deviations are also studied.

A note on asymptotic behavior of Galton-Watson branching processes in random environments

In this paper, we investigate Galton-Watson branching processes in random environments. In the case where the environmental process is a Markov chain which is positive recurrent or has a transition matrix Q (θ,α) such that sup_θ Q (θ,α)> 0 for some α, we prove that the model has the asymptotic behavior being similar to that of Galton-Watson branching processes. In other case where the environments are non-stationary independent, the sufficient conditions are obtained for certain extinction and uncertain extinction for the model.

FRACTAL PROPERTIES OF POLAR SETS OF RANDOM STRING PROCESSES

This paper studies fractal properties of polar sets for random string processes. We give upper and lower bounds of the hitting probabilities on compact sets and prove some sufficient conditions and necessary conditions for compact sets to be polar for the random string process. Moreover, we also determine the smallest Hausdorff dimensions of non-polar sets by constructing a Cantor-type set to connect its Hausdorff dimension and capacity.

Optimization study of station track utilization in high-speed railroad based on constraints of control in random origin and process

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to eliminate the fluctuations in train arrival and departure times caused by skewed distributions in interval operation times.These fluctuations arise from random origin and process factors during interval operations and can accumulate over multiple intervals.The aim is to enhance the robustness of high-speed rail station arrival and departure track utilization schemes.Design/methodologylapproach-To achieve this objective,the paper simulates actual train operations,incorporating the fluctuations in interval operation times into the utilization of arrival and departure tracks at the station.The Monte Carlo simulation method is adopted to solve this problem.This approach transforms a nonlinear model,which includes constraints from probability distribution functions and is difficult to solve directly,into a linear programming model that is easier to handle.The method then linearly weights two objectives to optimize the solution.Findings-Through the application of Monte Carlo simulation,the study successfully converts the complex nonlinear model with probability distribution function constraints into a manageable linear programming model.By continuously adjusting the weighting coefficients of the linear objectives,the method is able to optimize the Pareto solution.Notably,this approach does not require extensive scene data to obtain a satisfactory Pareto solution set.Originality/value-The paper contributes to the field by introducing a novel method for optimizing high-speed rail station arrival and departure track utilization in the presence of fluctuations in interval operation times.The use of Monte Carlo simulation to transform the problem into a tractable linear programming model represents a significant advancement.Furthermore,the method's ability to produce satisfactory Pareto solutions without relying on extensive data sets adds to its practical value and applicability in real-world scenarios.

A HybridManufacturing ProcessMonitoringMethod Using Stacked Gated Recurrent Unit and Random Forest

This study proposed a new real-time manufacturing process monitoring method to monitor and detect process shifts in manufacturing operations.Since real-time production process monitoring is critical in today’s smart manufacturing.The more robust the monitoring model,the more reliable a process is to be under control.In the past,many researchers have developed real-time monitoring methods to detect process shifts early.However,thesemethods have limitations in detecting process shifts as quickly as possible and handling various data volumes and varieties.In this paper,a robust monitoring model combining Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU)and Random Forest(RF)with Real-Time Contrast(RTC)called GRU-RF-RTC was proposed to detect process shifts rapidly.The effectiveness of the proposed GRU-RF-RTC model is first evaluated using multivariate normal and nonnormal distribution datasets.Then,to prove the applicability of the proposed model in a realmanufacturing setting,the model was evaluated using real-world normal and non-normal problems.The results demonstrate that the proposed GRU-RF-RTC outperforms other methods in detecting process shifts quickly with the lowest average out-of-control run length(ARL1)in all synthesis and real-world problems under normal and non-normal cases.The experiment results on real-world problems highlight the significance of the proposed GRU-RF-RTC model in modern manufacturing process monitoring applications.The result reveals that the proposed method improves the shift detection capability by 42.14%in normal and 43.64%in gamma distribution problems.

Non-Stationary Random Process for Large-Scale Failure and Recovery of Power Distribution

This work applies non-stationary random processes to resilience of power distribution under severe weather. Power distribution, the edge of the energy infrastructure, is susceptible to external hazards from severe weather. Large-scale power failures often occur, resulting in millions of people without electricity for days. However, the problem of large-scale power failure, recovery and resilience has not been formulated rigorously nor studied systematically. This work studies the resilience of power distribution from three aspects. First, we derive non-stationary random processes to model large-scale failures and recoveries. Transient Little’s Law then provides a simple approximation of the entire life cycle of failure and recovery through a queue at the network-level. Second, we define time-varying resilience based on the non-stationary model. The resilience metric characterizes the ability of power distribution to remain operational and recover rapidly upon failures. Third, we apply the non-stationary model and the resilience metric to large-scale power failures caused by Hurricane Ike. We use the real data from the electric grid to learn time-varying model parameters and the resilience metric. Our results show non-stationary evolution of failure rates and recovery times, and how the network resilience deviates from that of normal operation during the hurricane.

Limit theorems for supremum of Gaussian processes over a random interval

Let {X(t), t ≥ 0} be a centered stationary Gaussian process with correlation r(t)such that 1-r(t) is asymptotic to a regularly varying function. With T being a nonnegative random variable and independent of X(t), the exact asymptotics of P(sup_(t∈[0,T])X(t) > x) is considered, as x → ∞.

Simulation of non-stationary ground motion processes(I)

This paper proposes a method for simulation of non-stationary ground motion processes having the identical statistical feature, time-dependent power spectrum, with a given ground motion record, on the basis of review of simulation of non-stationary ground motion processes. The method has the following advantages: the sample processes are non-stationary both in amplitude and frequency, and both the amplitude and frequency non-stationarity depend on the target power spectrum; the power spectrum of any sample process does not necessarily accord with the target power spectrum, but statistically, it strictly accords with the target power spectrum. Finally, the method is verified by simulation of one acceleration record in Landers earthquake.

Dual Processes and Compapison Theorem of Superprocesses Random Environents

In this paper, we give the dual processes for superprocesses in random environments constructed by L Mytnik and the comparison theorem of these superprocesses with Dawson-Watanabe superprocesses.

Representation Theorems for Fuzzy Random Sets and Fuzzy Stochastic Processes

The fuzzy static and dynamic random phenomena in an abstract separable Banach space is discussed in this paper. The representation theorems for fuzzy set valued random sets, fuzzy random elements and fuzzy set valued stochastic processes are obtained.

Some limsup results for increments of stable processes in random scenery

In this paper,we prove some limsup results for increments and lag increments of G(t),which is a stable processe in random scenery.The proofs rely on the tail probability estimation of G(t).

Simulation of non-stationary ground motion processes (II)

This paper proposes a method for simulation of non-stationary ground motion processes having the identical statis-tical feature, time-dependent power spectrum, with a given ground motion record, on the basis of review of simu-lation of non-stationary ground motion processes. The method has the following advantages: the sample processes are non-stationary both in amplitude and frequency, and both the amplitude and frequency non-stationarity depend on the target power spectrum; the power spectrum of any sample process does not necessarily accord with the tar-get power spectrum, but statistically, it strictly accords with the target power spectrum. Finally, the method is veri-fied by simulation of one acceleration record in Landers earthquake.

Central limit theolrem for linear processes generated byⅡD random variables under the sub-linear expectation

In this paper,we investigate the central limit theorem and the invariance principle for linear processes generated by a new notion of independently and identically distributed(IID)random variables for sub-linear expectations initiated by Peng[19].It turns out that these theorems are natural and fairly neat extensions of the classical Kolmogorov's central limit theorem and invariance principle to the case where probability measures are no longer additive.

THE SOLUTION OF RANDOM EIGENVALUE PROBLEM WITH SMALL STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

This paper considers an eigenvalue problem containing small stochastic processes. For every fixed is, we can use the Prufer substitution to prove the existence of the random solutions lambda(n) and u(n) in the meaning of large probability. These solutions can be expanded in epsilon regularly, and their correction terms can be obtained by solving some random linear differential equations.

Bull and Bear Dynamics of the Nigeria Stock Returns Transitory via Mingled Autoregressive Random Processes

This paper expounds the nitty-gritty of stock returns transitory, periodical behavior of its markets’ demands and cyclical-like tenure-changing of number of the stocks sold. Mingling of autoregressive random processes via Poisson and Extreme-Value-Distributions (Fréchet, Gumbel, and Weibull) error terms were designed, generalized and imitated to capture stylized traits of k-serial tenures (ability to handle cycles), Markov transitional mixing weights, switching of mingling autoregressive processes and full range shape changing predictive distributions (multimodalities) that are usually caused by large fluctuations (outliers) and long-memory in stock returns. The Poisson and Extreme-Value-Distributions Mingled Autoregressive (PMA and EVDs) models were applied to a monthly number of stocks sold in Nigeria from 1960 to 2020. It was deduced that fitted Gumbel-MAR (2:1, 1) outstripped other linear models as well as best fitted among the Poisson and Extreme-Value-Distributions Mingled autoregressive models subjected to the discrete monthly stocks sold series.