The numerical simulation and inversion fitting of radon concentration distribution in homogeneous overburden above active fault zones

Based on the convection and diffusion mechanisms of radon migration, in this paper we deduce the two-dimensional differential equation for radon transportation in the overburden above active fault zones with an unlimited extension along the strike. Making use of the finite difference method, the radon concentration distribution in the overburden above active faults is calculated and modeled. The active fault zone parameters, such as the depth and the width of the fault zone, and the value of radon concentration, can be inverted from the measured radon concentration curve. These realize quantitative interpretation for radon concentration anomalies. The inversion results are in good agreement with the actual fault zone parameters.

A statistical analysis of the Kappa-type energy spectrum distribution of radiation belt electrons observed by Van Allen Probes

The energy spectrum of energetic electrons is a key factor representing the dynamic variations of Earth’s Van Allen radiation belts.Increased measurements have indicated that the commonly used Maxwellian and Kappa distributions are inadequate for capturing the realistic spectral distributions of radiation belt electrons.Here we adopt the Kappa-type(KT)distribution as the fitting function and perform a statistical analysis to investigate the radiation belt electron flux spectra observed by the Van Allen Probes.By calculating the optimal values of the key KT distribution parameters(i.e.,κandθ2)from the observed spectral shapes,we fit the radiation belt electron fluxes at different L-shells under different geomagnetic conditions.In this manner,we obtain typical values of the KT distribution parameters,which are statistically feasible for modeling the radiation belt electron flux profiles during either geomagnetically quiet or active periods.A comparison of the KT distribution model results with those using the Maxwellian or Kappa distribution reveals the advantage of the KT distribution for studying the overall properties of the radiation belt electron spectral distribution,which has important implications for deepening the current understanding of the radiation belt electron dynamics under evolving geomagnetic conditions.

Exploring a New Lifetime Distribution for Modelling the Waiting Time of Bank Customers

The fitting of lifetime distribution in real-life data has been studied in various fields of research. With the theory of evolution still applicable, more complex data from real-world scenarios will continue to emerge. Despite this, many researchers have made commendable efforts to develop new lifetime distributions that can fit this complex data. In this paper, we utilized the KM-transformation technique to increase the flexibility of the power Lindley distribution, resulting in the Kavya-Manoharan Power Lindley (KMPL) distribution. We study the mathematical treatments of the KMPL distribution in detail and adapt the widely used method of maximum likelihood to estimate the unknown parameters of the KMPL distribution. We carry out a Monte Carlo simulation study to investigate the performance of the Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLEs) of the parameters of the KMPL distribution. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the KMPL distribution for data fitting, we use a real dataset comprising the waiting time of 100 bank customers. We compare the KMPL distribution with other models that are extensions of the power Lindley distribution. Based on some statistical model selection criteria, the summary results of the analysis were in favor of the KMPL distribution. We further investigate the density fit and probability-probability (p-p) plots to validate the superiority of the KMPL distribution over the competing distributions for fitting the waiting time dataset.

Fitness of Four-Parameter Beta Distribution Function for Forecasting Gold Reserve and Its Production Lifespan in Ghana

Ghana, renowned for its abundant gold reserves, plays a significant role in the global mining industry. Effective management and accurate forecasting of these reserves are vital for sustainable resource utilization and economic planning. Forecasting gold reserves and estimating their production lifespan are complex tasks that require robust statistical models capable of capturing the underlying dynamics of gold deposit accumulation and extraction. To this end, the four-parameter Beta distribution function emerges as a promising candidate due to its flexibility and ability to handle non-negative data. This research aims to investigate the fitness and applicability of the four-parameter Beta distribution function for forecasting Ghana’s gold reserves and estimating the production lifespan of this precious resource. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold reserve between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Beta, Weibull, Normal, Logistic and Gamma were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the four-parameter Beta distribution provided the best fit for gold reserve in Ghana. At a 99.9% confidence level and considering the current annual average gold production estimate of 3,700,031.248 to 4,302,647.888 ounces, the projected lifespan of gold production in Ghana extends to the year 1,953,765. This astounding estimate suggests that the country’s gold reserves are expected to sustain production for an extended period, providing a critical resource for economic development and supporting the mining industry well into the distant future.

Fitness of Four-Parameter Beta Distribution Function for Forecasting Gold Reserve and Its Production Lifespan in Ghana

Ghana, renowned for its abundant gold reserves, plays a significant role in the global mining industry. Effective management and accurate forecasting of these reserves are vital for sustainable resource utilization and economic planning. Forecasting gold reserves and estimating their production lifespan are complex tasks that require robust statistical models capable of capturing the underlying dynamics of gold deposit accumulation and extraction. To this end, the four-parameter Beta distribution function emerges as a promising candidate due to its flexibility and ability to handle non-negative data. This research aims to investigate the fitness and applicability of the four-parameter Beta distribution function for forecasting Ghana’s gold reserves and estimating the production lifespan of this precious resource. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold reserve between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Beta, Weibull, Normal, Logistic and Gamma were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the four-parameter Beta distribution provided the best fit for gold reserve in Ghana. At a 99.9% confidence level and considering the current annual average gold production estimate of 3,700,031.248 to 4,302,647.888 ounces, the projected lifespan of gold production in Ghana extends to the year 1,953,765. This astounding estimate suggests that the country’s gold reserves are expected to sustain production for an extended period, providing a critical resource for economic development and supporting the mining industry well into the distant future.

Nonlinear Fitting Method of Long-Term Distributions for Statistical Analysis of Extreme Negative Surge Elevations

Hydrologic frequency analysis plays an important role in coastal and ocean engineering for structural design and disaster prevention in coastal areas. This paper proposes a Nonlinear Least Squares Method (NLSM), which estimates the three unknown parameters of the Weibull distribution simultaneously by an iteration method. Statistical test shows that the NLSM fits each data sample well. The effects of different parameter-fitting methods, distribution models, and threshold values are also discussed in the statistical analysis of storm set-down elevation. The best-fitting probability distribution is given and the corresponding return values are estimated for engineering design.

Characterizing prediction errors of a new tree height model for cut-to-length Pinus radiata stems through the Burr TypeⅫdistribution

Unlike height-diameter equations for standing trees commonly used in forest resources modelling,tree height models for cut-to-length(CTL)stems tend to produce prediction errors whose distributions are not conditionally normal but are rather leptokurtic and heavy-tailed.This feature was merely noticed in previous studies but never thoroughly investigated.This study characterized the prediction error distribution of a newly developed such tree height model for Pin us radiata(D.Don)through the three-parameter Burr TypeⅫ(BⅫ)distribution.The model’s prediction errors(ε)exhibited heteroskedasticity conditional mainly on the small end relative diameter of the top log and also on DBH to a minor extent.Structured serial correlations were also present in the data.A total of 14 candidate weighting functions were compared to select the best two for weightingεin order to reduce its conditional heteroskedasticity.The weighted prediction errors(εw)were shifted by a constant to the positive range supported by the BXII distribution.Then the distribution of weighted and shifted prediction errors(εw+)was characterized by the BⅫdistribution using maximum likelihood estimation through 1000 times of repeated random sampling,fitting and goodness-of-fit testing,each time by randomly taking only one observation from each tree to circumvent the potential adverse impact of serial correlation in the data on parameter estimation and inferences.The nonparametric two sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov(KS)goodness-of-fit test and its closely related Kuiper’s(KU)test showed the fitted BⅫdistributions provided a good fit to the highly leptokurtic and heavy-tailed distribution ofε.Random samples generated from the fitted BⅫdistributions ofεw+derived from using the best two weighting functions,when back-shifted and unweighted,exhibited distributions that were,in about97 and 95%of the 1000 cases respectively,not statistically different from the distribution ofε.Our results for cut-tolength P.radiata stems represented the first case of any tree species where a non-normal error distribution in tree height prediction was described by an underlying probability distribution.The fitted BXII prediction error distribution will help to unlock the full potential of the new tree height model in forest resources modelling of P.radiata plantations,particularly when uncertainty assessments,statistical inferences and error propagations are needed in research and practical applications through harvester data analytics.

Appropriateness of Reduced Modified Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution Function for Predicting Gold Production in Ghana

Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.

Appropriateness of Reduced Modified Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution Function for Predicting Gold Production in Ghana

Forecasting mine production is pertinent to gold mining as it serves as production goals for investors. It is therefore important to identify the exact distribution that gold production as a response variable naturally follows. It is even more appropriate to have a model(s) with few predictor variables. This paper seeks to identify appropriate statistical distribution functions for fitting gold production in Ghana. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold production between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Weibull, Log-Normal, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC, AICc and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the reduced modified 3-parameter Weibull distribution provided the best fit for gold production in Ghana. Though the reduced modified Weibull function is proposed, it is important however to recognize that other external factors can influence production levels. Also, the average quarterly fitted gold production is 1000334.8918 ± 75,327.080 (±7.5%) [i.e., 925,007.812 – 1,075,661.972]. This indicates that the average annually fitted gold production lies between 3700031.248 and 4302647.888 ounces at 99.9% confidence level. Therefore, the predicted gold production for the year 2022 is 3.7million ounces at 99.9% confidence level.

A frequency domain estimation and compensation method for system synchronization parameters of distributed-HFSWR

To analyze the influence of time synchronization error,phase synchronization error,frequency synchronization error,internal delay of the transceiver system,and range error and angle error between the unit radars on the target detection performance,firstly,a spatial detection model of distributed high-frequency surface wave radar(distributed-HFSWR)is established in this paper.In this model,a method for accurate extraction of direct wave spectrum based on curve fitting is proposed to obtain accurate system internal delay and frequency synchronization error under complex electromagnetic environment background and low signal to noise ratio(SNR),and to compensate for the shift of range and Doppler frequency caused by time-frequency synchronization error.The direct wave component is extracted from the spectrum,the range estimation error and Doppler estimation error are reduced by the method of curve fitting,and the fitting accuracy of the parameters is improved.Then,the influence of frequency synchronization error on target range and radial Doppler velocity is quantitatively analyzed.The relationship between frequency synchronization error and radial Doppler velocity shift and range shift is given.Finally,the system synchronization parameters of the trial distributed-HFSWR are obtained by the proposed spectrum extraction method based on curve fitting,the experimental data is compensated to correct the shift of the target,and finally the correct target parameter information is obtained.Simulations and experimental results demonstrate the superiority and correctness of the proposed method,theoretical derivation and detection model proposed in this paper.

Overlapped peaks resolution for linear sweep polarography using Gaussian-like distribution

A resolution method based on Gaussian-like distribution for overlapped linear sweep polarographic peaks was proposed to simultaneously detect the polymetallic components, such as Zn（Ⅱ） and Co（Ⅱ）, coexisting in the leaching solution of zinc hydrometallurgy. A Gaussian-like distribution was constructed as the sub-model of overlapped peaks by analyzing the characteristics of linear sweep polarographic curve. Then, the abscissas of each peak and trough were pinpointed through multi-resolution wavelet decomposition, the curve and its derivative curves were fitted by using nonlinear weighted least squares （NWLS）. Finally, overlapped peaks were resolved into independent sub-peaks based on fitted reconstruction parameters. The experimental results show that the relative error of half-wave potential pinpointed by multi-resolution wavelet decomposition is less than 1% and the accuracy of Ip fitted by NWLS is higher than 96%. The proposed resolution method is effective for overlapped linear sweep polarographic peaks of Zn（Ⅱ） and Co（Ⅱ）.

Study on the Relation between Garment Style and Ease Distribution

The shape of body and the ease of garment are the important elements in constructing garment style. However, the distribution of ease in garment is uneven and the curves showing different cross-sections of garment style with ease are unavailable in the literature. This information is crucial when the three-dimensional garment style is transformed into two-dimensional garment patterns. Thus, several different X-line style garments are produced by 3D draping technology, and the cubic spline is used to fit the cross sectional curves of BL, WL of body and garment. By comparing cross sections of body and garment, the ease at different location can be derived. Besides, garments in 10 different dimensions and quantities of style ease are included in the current study. By numerical operation on discrete ease data at different location, the fitted functions of ease distribution are obtained.

Statistical Description of Debris Particle Size Distribution in Electrical Discharge Machining

Gap debris as discharge product is closely related to machining process in electrical discharge machining（EDM）. A lot of recent researches have focused on the relationship among debris size, surfaces texture, remove rate, and machining stability. The study on statistical distribution of debris size contributes to the research, but it is still superficial currently. In order to obtain the distribution law of the debris particle size, laser particle size analyzer（LPSA） combined with scanning electron microscope（SEM） is used to analyze the EDM debris size. Firstly, the heating dried method is applied to obtain the debris particles. Secondly, the measuring range of LPSA is determined as 0.5–100 μm by SEM observation, and the frequency distribution histogram and the cumulative frequency distribution scattergram of debris size are obtained by using LPSA. Thirdly, according to the distribution characteristic of the frequency distribution histogram, the statistical distribution functions of lognormal, exponentially modified Gaussian（EMG）, Gamma and Weibull are chosen to achieve curve fitting of the histogram. At last, the distribute law of the debris size is obtained by fitting results. Experiments with different discharge parameters are carried out on an EDM machine designed by the authors themselves, and the machining conditions are tool electrode of red-copper material, workpiece of ANSI 1045 material and working fluid of de-ionized water. The experimental results indicate that the debris sizes of all experiment sample truly obey the Weibull distribution. The obtained distribution law is significantly important for all the models established based on the debris particle size.

Optimization by Estimation of Distribution with DEUM Framework Based on Markov Random Fields

This paper presents a Markov random field （MRP） approach to estimating and sampling the probability distribution in populations of solutions. The approach is used to define a class of algorithms under the general heading distribution estimation using Markov random fields （DEUM）. DEUM is a subclass of estimation of distribution algorithms （EDAs） where interaction between solution variables is represented as an undirected graph and the joint probability of a solution is factorized as a Gibbs distribution derived from the structure of the graph. The focus of this paper will be on describing the three main characteristics of DEUM framework, which distinguishes it from the traditional EDA. They are： 1） use of MRF models, 2） fitness modeling approach to estimating the parameter of the model and 3） Monte Carlo approach to sampling from the model.

A Two-Parameter Lindley Distribution for Modeling Waiting and Survival Times Data

In this paper, a two-parameter Lindley distribution, of which the one parameter Lindley distribution (LD) is a particular case, for modeling waiting and survival times data has been introduced. Its moments, failure rate function, mean residual life function, and stochastic orderings have been discussed. It is found that the expressions for failure rate function mean residual life function and stochastic orderings of the two-parameter LD shows flexibility over one-parameter LD and exponential distribution. The maximum likelihood method and the method of moments have been discussed for estimating its parameters. The distribution has been fitted to some data-sets relating to waiting times and survival times to test its goodness of fit to which earlier the one parameter LD has been fitted by others and it is found that to almost all these data-sets the two parameter LD distribution provides closer fits than those by the one parameter LD.

Fragment spatial distribution of prismatic casing under internal explosive loading

Non-cylindrical casings filled with explosives have undergone rapid development in warhead design and explosion control.The fragment spatial distribution of prismatic casings is more complex than that of traditional cylindrical casings.In this study,numerical and experimental investigations into the fragment spatial distribution of a prismatic casing were conducted.A new numerical method,which adds the Lagrangian marker points to the Eulerian grid,was proposed to track the multi-material interfaces and material dynamic fractures.Physical quantity mappings between the Lagrangian marker points and Eulerian grid were achieved by their topological relationship.Thereafter,the fragment spatial distributions of the prismatic casing with different fragment sizes,fragment shapes,and casing geometries were obtained using the numerical method.Moreover,fragment spatial distribution experiments were conducted on the prismatic casing with different fragment sizes and shapes,and the experimental data were compared with the numerical results.The effects of the fragment and casing geometry on the fragment spatial distributions were determined by analyzing the numerical results and experimental data.Finally,a formula including the casing geometry parameters was fitted to predict the fragment spatial distribution of the prismatic casing under internal explosive loading.

Error Thresholds in Single-Peak Gaussian Distributed Fitness Landscapes

Based on the Eigen and Crow-Kimura models with a single-peak fitness landscape, we propose the fitness values of all sequence types to be Gausslan distributed random variables to incorporate the effects of the fluctuations of the fitness landscapes （noise of environments） and investigate the concentration distribution and error threshold of quasispecies by performing an ensemble average within this theoretical framework. We find that a small fluctuation of the fitness landscape causes only a slight change in the concentration distribution and error threshold, which implies that the error threshold is stable against small perturbations. However, for a sizable fluctuation, quite different from the previous deterministic models, our statistical results show that the transition from quasi-species to error catastrophe is not so sharp, indicating that the error threshold is located within a certain range and has a shift toward a larger value. Our results are qualitatively in agreement with the experimental data and provide a new implication for antiviral strategies.

Gaussian process assisted coevolutionary estimation of distribution algorithm for computationally expensive problems

In order to reduce the computation of complex problems, a new surrogate-assisted estimation of distribution algorithm with Gaussian process was proposed. Coevolution was used in dual populations which evolved in parallel. The search space was projected into multiple subspaces and searched by sub-populations. Also, the whole space was exploited by the other population which exchanges information with the sub-populations. In order to make the evolutionary course efficient, multivariate Gaussian model and Gaussian mixture model were used in both populations separately to estimate the distribution of individuals and reproduce new generations. For the surrogate model, Gaussian process was combined with the algorithm which predicted variance of the predictions. The results on six benchmark functions show that the new algorithm performs better than other surrogate-model based algorithms and the computation complexity is only 10% of the original estimation of distribution algorithm.

Properties, Inference and Applications of Inverse Power Two-Parameter Weighted Lindley Distribution

We proposed “a new extension of three-parametric distribution” called the inverse power two-parameter weighted Lindley (IPWL) distribution capable of modeling a upside-down bathtub hazard rate function. This distribution is studied to get basic structural properties such as reliability measures, moments, inverse moments and its related measures. Simulation studies are done to present the performance and behavior of maximum likelihood estimates of the IPWL distribution parameters. Finally, we perform goodness of fit measures and test statistics using a real data set to show the performance of the new distribution.

Calculation of photon angular distribution and polarization for radiative recombination for high-charged hydrogen-like ions

In this paper a systematic study is carried out on the angular distribution and polarization of photons emitted following radiative recombination of H-like ions by a non-relativistic dipole approximation. In order to incorporate the screening effect due to inner-shell electrons, a distorted wave approazh is used. The dependences of the calculated angular distribution and polarization on the reduced energy and nuclear charge are fitted by the corresponding empirical formulas respectively.