The forecasting efficiency under different selected regions by Pattern Informatics Method and seismic potential estimation in the North-South Seismic Zone

In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(PI)method,as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method,has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance.The earthquake catalog with magnitude above M_(S)3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically.Based on this,we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes.A“forward”forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk.The study shows the following.1)PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller.2)In areas with smaller differences of seismicity,the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map.3)The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes,which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future.This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity,such as Japan,Californi,Turkey,and Indonesia.

圆偏振发光聚合物材料的研究进展

总结了圆偏振发光聚合物材料的最新研究进展,综述了基于手性主链、手性侧链、非共价相互作用及掺杂型的圆偏振发光聚合物材料体系,介绍了其在圆偏振发光二极管、信息加密和显示成像、手性传感等领域的应用,并对圆偏振发光聚合物材料目前面临的挑战及未来的发展进行了展望。

North-south difference of water mass properties across the Lembeh Strait, North Sulawesi, Indonesia

Two field observations were conducted around the Lembeh Strait in September 2015 and 2016, respectively.Evidences indicate that seawater around the Lembeh Strait is consisted of North Pacific Tropical Water(NPTW),North Pacific Intermediate Water(NPIW), North Pacific Tropical Intermediate Water(NPTIW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water(AAIW). Around the Lembeh Strait, there exist some north-south differences in terms of water mass properties. NPTIW is only found in the southern Lembeh Strait. Water mass with the salinity of 34.6 is only detected at 200–240 m between NPTW and NPTIW in the southern Lembeh Strait, and results from the process of mixing between the saltier water transported from the South Pacific Ocean and the lighter water from the North Pacific Ocean and Sulawesi Sea. According to the analysis on mixing layer depth, it is indicated that there exists an onshore surface current in the northern Lembeh Strait and the surface current in the Lembeh Strait is southward.These dramatic differences of water masses demonstrate that the less water exchange has been occurred between the north and south of Lembeh Strait. In 2015, the positive wind stress curl covering the northern Lembeh Strait induces the shoaling of thermocline and deepening of NPIW, which show that the north-south difference of airsea system is possible of inducing north-south differences of seawater properties.

Discussion on position of China’s north-south transitional zone by comparative analysis of mountain altitudinal belts

The Qinling Mountains has always been regarded as an essential dividing line between the warm temperate zone and the subtropical zone in eastern China and plays a vital role in the geoecological pattern of China.However,there is controversy about the specific location of this geographical boundary in the academic community.As a product of the combined effects of zonal and non-zonal factors,the mountain altitudinal belts(MABs)can reflect both the horizontal zonality and the vertical zonality of vegetation distribution.Using the MAB information,we can not only profoundly understand the complex mountain system of QinlingDaba Mountains but can also judge its nature as a geographical boundary more scientifically.Therefore,based on the comparative analysis of basal belt,dominant belt characteristics and belt structure characteristics of the MABs in Qinling-Daba Mountains,subtropical and temperate mountains,this paper analyzed the MAB differences and similarities among Qinling-Daba Mountains,subtropical and temperate typical mountains,to reveal the vegetation distribution characteristics in the north-south transitional zone.The results show that:(1)The MABs of the southern part of QinlingDaba Mountains(southern slope of the Daba Mountains)are the same or similar to those of the Subtropical Mountains,and the MABs of the northern part of Qinling-Daba Mountains(northern slope of the Qinling Mountains)are similar to those of the temperate mountains.While it shows obvious transitional characteristics in the vast area between the northern slope of the Daba Mountains and the southern slope of the Qinling Mountains:the basal belts gradually transit from the evergreen broadleaved forest belt(basal belt in subtropical mountains)to the evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest belt,and the dominant belts also transit from the evergreen broad-leaved forest belt to the evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forest belt or the deciduous broad-leaved forest belt.(2)The transitional zone between the subtropical zone and the warm temperate zone is located between the northern slope of the Daba Mountains and the southern slope of the Qinling Mountains.The southern boundary of the transitional zone is along the northern slope of Shennongjia Mountain-the northern slope of Micang Mountain-Baishuijiang Nature Reserve,and the northern boundary is along the southern slope of Funiu Mountain-the southern slope of Taibai Mountain-Lianhua Mountain.Additionally,in the transitional zone,the average temperature in January is between-5°C and 1°C,the annual average temperature is between 10°C and 13°C except Hanzhong Basin and Hanshui Valley,and the accumulated temperature above 10°C ranges from 2000°C to 4000°C,the annual rainfall is about 800-1000 mm.The results provide a scientific basis for revealing the characteristics of China’s north-south transitional zone and scientific division of the boundary between the subtropical zone and warm temperate zone in China.

Study on Evolution of Gravity Fieldand Earthquake Prediction in theNorth-south Seismic Belt and theEastern Qinghai-Xizang Block

The relation between the dynamic evolution feature of gravity field and strong seismicity is studied. The result shows that the regional gravity field variation enjoys inhomogeneity of spatial and temporal distribution and gravity change in different regions. It may be resulted from active faults and seismogenic process, and may be due to microdynamic activity of regional strain energy, which might be accumulated or released in different stages, and there exists transformation process of stress.

Spatial Pattern and Development of Protected Areas in the North-south Transitional Zone of China

The north-south transitional zone in China mainly consists of the Qinling-Daba Mountains. It is the most important West-East geo-ecological space in China, containing protected areas vital for biodiversity conservation and ecological security of China. The protection and rational development of its natural habitat is of great significance to China’s ecological security and integration of protected areas based on mountain forest ecosystems on a global scale. In this study, five important types of protected areas in the transitional zone were selected, and their spatial patterns were analysed. Spatial analysis methods, such as kernel density estimation and accessibility analysis, were employed for both point and areal data, and focused on four aspects: land use scale, shift in the centre of gravity, spatial agglomeration, and accessibility. In addition, policy background and evolution of spatial and temporal characteristics of the protected area system in the transitional zone from 1963 to 2017 were also examined. We analysed the characteristics and geographical significance of the West-east corridor using the spatial pattern of the protected area system from the perspective of ecological and economic spaces. We focused on spatial shape, type intersection, and key areas to analyse the spatial overlap of the protected areas. Protected area establishment was divided into three stages: initial(1956–1980), rapid development(1981–2013), and national park transformation(2014–present). These stages reflected the change in the concept of ‘simple protection—sustainable use—integration and upgrade’ for protected areas of China. The spatial centre of gravity of the protection zone system was located in the west Qinling-Daba Mountains, and its high-density core exhibited a relatively stable N-shaped structure composed of four gathering areas. Affected by factors such as geographic environment and socio-economic development density, the average access time for protected areas was high(1.56 h);wetland parks and scenic areas are located closer to the city centre. As the West-east corridor in the transitional zone extends from west to east, there is a clear spatial dislocation between the development of protected areas and the intensity of human activities. During development, differentiated goal orientation should be adopted based on the idea of zoning and classified governance. With the advancement of the construction of protected areas, the spatial overlap of protected areas in the transition zone has become more prominent. At present, the spatially overlapped protected areas in the transitional zone remain prominent, with inclusion overlap being the most common, and forest parks exhibiting the highest probability of overlap with other protected areas, we should focus on in the integration process of the corridor-type ecological space based on the mountain forest ecosystem.

Dissymmetric flow phenomenon in a multistrand tundish

The dissymmetric flow phenomenon exists in a symmetric multistrand tundish. It was studied by the physical simulation experiment. The fundamental flow characteristic of dissymmetry was analyzed. The asymmetry of the flow field, the temperature field, and the inclusions distribution without flow-control devices （FCDs） were compared with those with FCDs. It is proved that the asymmetry of the flow and temperature field along the outlets at the long range is more obvious. The symmetric FCDs installation has a slight effect on the dissymmetric temperature field, simultaneously, the symmetry of the average residence time and the fluid flow pattern has improved, and the fluid flow in the tundish has been more reasonable. In case of a symmetric multistrand tundish having a large volume, the influence of the dissymmetric phenomenon should be considered and the flow behaviors in the whole tundish should be studied completely.

Characteristics of satellite-gravity variations in the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake

To study the characteristics of gravity variations in and near the North-South Seismic Belt before the 2013 Lushan earthquake,we used the geopotential-field models based on monthly data of the RI.~5 GRACE satellite to calculate the gravity changes. Here we present the patterns of annually cumulative variation, differentiatial variation and secular trend, as well as the continuous time-series at 4 characteristic sites during 2004 -2012. The result shows that the anomalous positive-to-negative transition zone, in which the epicenter of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake was located, did not show any new gravity change before the Lushan earthquake, though located in the same zone.

Relationship between crustal magnetic anomalies and strong earthquake activity in the south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt

The south segment of the China North-South Seismic Belt is located in the southeast margin of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau.This region is characterized by the frequent seismic activity in Chinese mainland.In this paper,the geomagnetic field model NGDC-720 and the data of terrestrial heat flow are used to investigate the distribution of crustal magnetic anomalies,the depth of Curie surface,and the characteristics of the crustal thermal structure in the south segment of the North-South Seismic Belt.The distribution characteristics of the vertical component AZ and the magnetic declination AD in the area with earthquakes over a magnitude of 6 and their aftershocks since 1970 are focused on.The results show that the earthquakes are mainly observed in the area of negative magnetic anomaly or the strong and weak transition zone.It especially shows in the AD.The Curie surface in the study area varies significantly,ranging from 20.8 to 31 km.The uplift area of the Curie surface is consistent with the high-value area of terrestrial heat flow.The high geothermal area corresponds to the strong earthquake activity area.The focal depth of most strong earthquakes is shallower than the depth of the Curie surface.The strong earthquakes mainly occur in the deep-shallow transition zones of the Curie surface.The results can be used as a reference for strong earthquake prediction in this area.

NEW CHANGES IN THE THIRD WORLD AND NORTH-SOUTH RELATIONS

Since the end of the cold war,there have take place a number of notablechanges in the Third World and North-South relations,which are expected tohave a far-reaching impact on the evolving world configuration and even the inter-national relationship in the 21st century.

Analysis of Seismic Activity in the Middle Part of the North-South Seismic Belt——Joint Study on Deep Seismic Sounding Profile and Seismicity Parameters

Using the rich deep seismic sounding data recorded in the middle part of the NorthSouth Seismic Belt in China,the horizontal and vertical profiles are constructed to obtain the seismic velocity structure,analyze the seismic distribution and calculate the seismic energy and the thickness of the seismogenic layer at the same time.On this basis,the seismicity parameters are calculated using the earthquake catalogue of the study area for the past 40 years,and the relationship between the b-value distribution and the velocity structure is analyzed.The results show an uneven b-value distribution in the study area and a segmented feature along the Longmenshan fault zone.Most of the earthquakes occur in the transition zone anomalies from the positive to the negative.In addition,the thickness of the crust drops from ~60 km to ~48 km from the Southeastern to the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,but the thickness of the seismogenic layer increases gradually.It is speculated that the crustal composition of the Northeastern margin contains more felsic materials and has relatively stronger seismic activities than the Southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,possibly associated with the subduction and compression of the Indian Ocean Plate.

Historic Breakthrough in North-South Korean Relations

North and South Korea announced simultaneously on April 10 that their heads ofstate, President Kim Jong H and Kim Dae Jung will hold a summit in Py-ongyang from June 12 through 14. This is the first inter-Korean summit since thepeninsular was divided more than half a century ago. It is in the interest of bothsides and good to ending the cold war and bringing about peace on the peninsularand maintaining peace and stability in Northeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific as awhole. The announcement inspired the two Koreas with enthusiasm and drewgreat attention from the international community.

Research on the Distribution Features of the Benioff Strain Ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt after the Two Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquakes

In view of the correlation between tectonic activity and seismicity,the strong earthquake risk in the North-South Seismic Belt aroused wide concern after the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake. Using the seismic catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center,the Benioff strain ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt is calculated in 30 days before and after the March 21,2008 and February 12,2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquakes. Results show that in a year after the 2008 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,M > 5. 0 earthquakes all occurred near the high strain ratio area or the junction between the low and high strain ratio areas,the activity of strong earthquakes obviously coincides with the high strain ratio area,which indicates that these areas have a higher stress level. The Yutian earthquakes promoted the release of small earthquakes in the high stress areas. This research is of certain indicating significance to the study of subsequent strong earthquakes of this region.

Slip Rates of the Major Faults on the Mid-southern Section of the North-South Seismic Belt Calculated from the Block Theory

In this paper, using the 1999 ~ 2007 GPS velocity field data, and by choosing the optimal block model, we obtained the deformation models applicable to the boundary zones of major blocks and the slip rates of block boundary faults on the mid-southern segment of the North-South Seismic Belt. The results show that： on the Longmenshan fault zone, the tensional and compressive slip rate is small on the Baoxing-Wenchuan segment, about 0. 5 ~ 1.8mm·a^-1, and the rate is relatively significant on the segment of the Wenchuan--Maoxian, as 1.8 ~3.8mm·a^-1; on the Xianshuihe fault belt, there is a certain difference in spatial distribution between the tensional slip rag.e and strike-slip rate： the tensional slip rate （ 8. lmm^a-1） is bigger than the sinistral strike-slip rate （ 4.8mm·a^-1） at the north of the Luhuo region; the tension and compression slip rate is basically the same as the strike-slip rate at Luhuo-Dawu; the Dawu-Kangding section presents a trend of decreased strike-slip rate and increased tensional slip rate; the Kangding-ghimian segment shows a strike-slip nature; the strike-slip rate is significantly greater than the tension/compression rate on the Xiaojiang fault zone; the slip rate on the Red River fault zone shows obvious spatial segmentation, the slip rate is smaller in its northwest part, but with a certain amount of tensional/compression component, 4. 7mm·a^-1 on the Jingdong segment. The segment east of Jingdong （ western Gejiu） is mainly of strike-slip, with a slip rate of 4. 5mm·a^-1.

The North-South Seismic Belt： Vertical Deformation Velocity Gradient Research

The vertical deformation gradient can reflect the rate of vertical change in unit distance,and the vertical deformation velocity gradient can reflect the strength of the earth's crust tectonic activities. In this paper,using long period leveling data combined with GPS data,the vertical deformation gradient values are calculated. Leveling data and GPS data are two different means of monitoring deformation,but the result is approximately the same vertical deformation gradient. The results show that the spatial distribution of the vertical deformation velocity gradient and tectonic distribution has an obvious correlation. The most significant gradient anomalies along the North-South Seismic Belt are Xianshuihe fault, Longmenshan fault and Xiaojiang-Zemuhe fault, while the second gradient anomalies in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan plateau are Zhuanglanghe fault and Lenglongling fault. The Menyuan M_S6. 4 earthquake in 2016 occurred in this abnormal area. However,according to the vertical deformation high gradient area distribution,there is also the possibility of an earthquake occurrence in the Tianzhu and Jingtai area.The area of convergence of three major fault zones is the strongest tectonically active region of the North-South Seismic Belt.

The Migration Characteristics of Strong Earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt and Its Relation with the South Asia Seismic Belt

Migration of strong earthquakes (M≥7.0) along the North-South Seismic Belt of China since 1500 AD shows three patterns: Approximately equal time and distance interval migration from N to S, varied patterns of migration from S to N and grouped strong earthquake activity in a certain period over the entire seismic belt. Analysis of strong earthquakes in the past hundred years shows that the seismicity on the North-South Seismic Belt is also associated with strong earthquake activities on the South Asia Seismic Belt which extends from Myanmar to Sumatra, Indonesia. Strong earthquakes on the former belt often lag several months or years behind the quakes occurring on the later belt. So, after the occurrence of the December 26, 2004 M_S8.7 great earthquake off the western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia, the possibility of occurrence of strong earthquakes on the North-South Seismic Belt of China cannot be ignored. The above-mentioned migration characteristics of strong earthquakes are related to the northeastward collision and subduction of the India Plate as well as the interaction between the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and the stable and hard Ordos and Alashan Massifs at its northeastern margin.

Quantitative Seismicity Analysis for the Risk of Historical Large Earthquake Rupture Zone:Application to the Mid-North Segment of the North-South Seismic Belt

Although seismic gap theory plays an important role in the med-and long-term earthquake prediction,the potential risk of the non-seismic gap in historical earthquake rupture areas will need to be simultaneously taken into account in the study of med-and long-term earthquake prediction,due to the temporally clustering or non-linear behavior of large earthquake recurrence.In order to explore technical methods which can be based on observational data,and identify historical earthquake rupture zones( including the seismic gap in historical and prehistoric earthquake rupture zones),we select eight historical large earthquake rupture zones with different elapsed times on the mid-north segment of the North-South Seismic Belt to make quantitative analysis on the characteristics of modern seismicity of these zones and preliminarily explore the seismicity method for determining the urgency degree of potential earthquake hazards.The results mainly show that the pvalue,which reflects the attenuation of earthquake sequence,and the a-value,which reflects the seismicity rate,are strongly related to the elapsed time of the latest earthquake in the rupture zone.However,the corresponding relationships in some rupture areas are not clear perhaps due to the complex fault structure and faulting behavior.The b-value,which represents the state of tectonic stress accumulation,does not easily reflect the elapsed time information of different evolution stages.The b-value temporal scanning shows a steady evolution over time in most of the rupture zones,but in the rupture zone of the Wudu M8.0 earthquake of 1879,the b-value shows significant fluctuations with a decreasing trend for 20 years.By comparative analysis,we conclude that the rupture zones of the 1933 M7.5 Maoxian earthquake and the 1976 M7.2 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake are still in the decaying period of earthquake sequences,and thus do not have the background for recurrence of M7.0 earthquakes.The low b-value Maqu segment,which is located at the north margin of the rupture zone of the 842A.D.M7.0 Diebu earthquake,is more dangerous than the Diebu segment.The continuous decline of the b-value in the 1879 M8.0 Wudu earthquake rupture zone may also indicate a new round of seismogenic process.

The Characteristics of Recent Geodetic Deformation and Seismicity in North-South Seismic Zone and East of the Qinghai-Xizang Block

In this paper,the corresponding relation of the evolutionary characteristics of geodetic deformation fields with seismic activity for more than 20 years in the North-South seismic zone and East of Qinghai-Xizang Mess has been investigated.Not only is geodetic deformation in non-homogeneity for the space-time distribution but also deformation fields are in macroscopic similarity for the identical time interval.The inherited tectonic movement is a total tendency of recent crustal movement,and the motion mode is in undulations.There are stages of accumulation and release-adjusting of strain energy in crustal movement processes,which may be the dynamic mechanism of relatively quiet and active seismicity.The analysis of the crustal movement tendency since 1991 is of some significance for judging the stress state and the large seismic situation in the area.

North-South Asymmetry of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Magnitude and the Geomagnetic Indices

Data of the daily interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the geomagnetic indices (aa, Ap, Kp, and DST) have been used to examine the asymmetry between the solar field north and south of the heliospheric current sheet, over the period (1975-2013). It important to note that during the positive polarity epochs: (T) refers to Toward the South of the heliospheric current sheet (Southern Hemisphere), and (A) refers to Away from North of the heliospheric current sheet (Northern Hemisphere). While, during the negative polarity epochs the opposite will be happened. The present study finds no clear indication of the presence of north-south asymmetry in the field magnitude, and also there is no magnetic solar cycle dependence that is evident. During the considered period, the north-south asymmetry for the considered parameters reaches maximum values around the declining phase or near to the minimum of the solar cycle. The geomagnetic indices have a clear asymmetry during the positive solar magnetic polarity period (qA > 0) and have a northern dominance during cycles (22 & 23) and southern dominance during cycles (21 & 24). From the power spectrum density, the considered parameters showed significant peaks which appeared in the north-south asymmetry but the 10.7 yr solar cycle was absent. In addition, the main periodicity of the asymmetry may be 5.2, 4.0 and 3.3 years that exist in the parameters with higher confidence levels. Finally, one can conclude that the asymmetry of the interplanetary parameters and the geomagnetic indices may provide multiple causes for producing the observed asymmetric modulations of cosmic rays.

Implications Caused by the Dissymmetries of Reference

Many linguists study pragmatics, but each of them does it from different perspective. To further understand pragmatics,the better understanding of implications is extremely necessary. This thesis tries to analyze the phenomena of the dissymmetries ofreference and the reasons and implications of these phenomena.