Synoptic Verification of Medium-Extended-Range Forecasts of the Northwest Pacific Subtropical High and South Asian High Based on Multi-Center TIGGE Data

Synoptic verification of medium-extended-range forecasts of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high （NWPSH） and South Asian high （SAH） is performed for the summers of 2010-2012 using TIGGE data from four operational centers at the CMA,ECMWF,JMA,and NCEP.The overall activities of the NW-PSH and SAH are examined along with their local characteristics such as the spatial coverage of each high in the East Asian key area （10°-40°N,105°-130°E）,the mean position of the ridge of each high over 110°-122.5°E,the westward extent of the NWPSH ridge,and the eastward extent of the SAH ridge.Focus on the NWPSH and SAH is justified because these two systems have pronounced influences on the summertime persistent heavy rainfall in China.Although the overall activities of both highs are reproduced reasonably well in the TIGGE data,their spatial coverages are reduced in the East Asian key area and both of them are weaker compared with observations.On average,their ridges shift more northward relative to observations.The NWPSH ridge is less westward while the SAH ridge is generally more eastward early in the forecast but too westward later in the forecast.The JMA ensemble prediction system （EPS） produces the best mediumrange （1-10 days） forecasts of the NWPSH based on these metrics,while the ECMWF EPS produces the best medium-range forecasts of the SAH and the most reliable extended-range （11-15 days） forecasts of both highs.Forecasts of the spatial coverage of both highs in the East Asian key area and the mean positions of the ridges are generally valid out to lead times of 7-12 days.By contrast,forecasts of the longitudinal extent of the ridges are typically only valid to lead times of 5-7 days.All the four operational centers＇ models produce excellent forecasts of the mean zonal position of the SAH ridge.The ensemble mean forecast is more reliable than the control forecast over the areas where the NWPSH （20°-30°N,135°-165°E） and SAH （23°-30°N,70°-100°E） are most active.Forecasts of both highs have advantages and disadvantages in the peripheral areas away from their respective center of high activity.

Atmospheric Circulations and Sea Surface Temperatures Related to the convection over the western Pacific Warm Pool on the Interannual Scale

The difference is examined in atmospheric circulation and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the trop-ics and subtropics between weak and strong convection over the tropical western Pacific warm pool (signified as WPWP). The WPWP is chosen as the region (110–160°E, 10–20°N), where the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) shows a great year-to-year variance. A composite study was carried out to examine the differences in atmospheric circulation and SSTs between weak and strong convection over WPWP. First, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data and satellite-observed OLR data are used to examine the differences. ERA data, in which the OLR data are calculated, are then used for re-examination. The composite results show that the differences are remarkably similar in these two sets of data. The difference in circulations between weak and strong convection over WPWP is significantly associated with westward extension of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone and stronger westerlies at the northwestern edge of the subtropical anticyclone. It also corresponds with the significant easterly anomaly and the descent anomaly in situ, i.e., over the WPWP. The most prominent characteristics of the difference of SSTs between weak and strong convection over the WPWP are the significant positive SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. In WPWP, however, there are only weak negative SST anomalies. Thus, the anomaly of OLR over WPWP is weakly associated with the SST anomalies in situ, while closely associated with the SST anomalies west of WPWP. Key words Convection over the western Pacific warm pool - Northwest Pacific subtropical high - Sea surface temperatures This study was supported by the “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 Part 1.