China's nuclear power industry experienced such three stages as initiation,moderate development and active development.So far,there have been 11 nuclear power units in service in the Chinese mainland with a total ...China's nuclear power industry experienced such three stages as initiation,moderate development and active development.So far,there have been 11 nuclear power units in service in the Chinese mainland with a total installed capacity of 9 100 MW.In addition,there are 24 units being constructed or to be constructed as listed in the 11th Five-Year Plan.展开更多
The nuclear event risk(NER)is an important and disputed factor that should be reasonably considered when planning the pathway of nuclear power development(NPD)to assess the benefits and risks of developing nuclear pow...The nuclear event risk(NER)is an important and disputed factor that should be reasonably considered when planning the pathway of nuclear power development(NPD)to assess the benefits and risks of developing nuclear power more objectively.This paper aims to explore the impact of nuclear events on NPD pathway planning.The influence of nuclear events is quantified as a monetary risk component,and an optimization model that incorporates the NER in the objective function is proposed.To optimize the pathway of NPD in the lowcarbon transition course of power supply structure evolution,a simulation model is built to deduce alternative NPD pathways and corresponding power supply evolution scenarios under the constraint of an exogenously assigned carbon emission pathway(CEP);moreover,a method is proposed to describe the CEP by superimposing the maximum carbon emission space and each carbon emission reduction(CER)component,and various CER components are clustered considering the emission reduction characteristics and resource endowments of different power generation technologies.A case study is conducted to explore the impact of NER and its risk valuation uncertainty on NPD pathway planning.The method presented in this paper allows the impact of nuclear events on NPD pathway planning to be quantified and improves the level of coordinated optimization of benefits and risks.展开更多
文摘China's nuclear power industry experienced such three stages as initiation,moderate development and active development.So far,there have been 11 nuclear power units in service in the Chinese mainland with a total installed capacity of 9 100 MW.In addition,there are 24 units being constructed or to be constructed as listed in the 11th Five-Year Plan.
基金supported in part by the NARI Group Corporation Science and Technology project“Research on Coordinated Development of Carbon Emission Reduction and Carbon Sink Enhancement”。
文摘The nuclear event risk(NER)is an important and disputed factor that should be reasonably considered when planning the pathway of nuclear power development(NPD)to assess the benefits and risks of developing nuclear power more objectively.This paper aims to explore the impact of nuclear events on NPD pathway planning.The influence of nuclear events is quantified as a monetary risk component,and an optimization model that incorporates the NER in the objective function is proposed.To optimize the pathway of NPD in the lowcarbon transition course of power supply structure evolution,a simulation model is built to deduce alternative NPD pathways and corresponding power supply evolution scenarios under the constraint of an exogenously assigned carbon emission pathway(CEP);moreover,a method is proposed to describe the CEP by superimposing the maximum carbon emission space and each carbon emission reduction(CER)component,and various CER components are clustered considering the emission reduction characteristics and resource endowments of different power generation technologies.A case study is conducted to explore the impact of NER and its risk valuation uncertainty on NPD pathway planning.The method presented in this paper allows the impact of nuclear events on NPD pathway planning to be quantified and improves the level of coordinated optimization of benefits and risks.
