Numerical evaluation of the effectiveness of frost heave mitigation strategies for chilled arctic gas pipelines

To prevent the thawing of ice-rich permafrost,it is suggested that gas should be transported in a chilled state(below the freezing temperature)in pipelines buried in permafrost.However,frost heave occurs when water migrates towards the chilled pipeline and ice lenses grow underneath the pipe.This might endanger the integrity of the pipeline and the environment as well.Therefore,innovative frost heave mitigation measures are required when designing the pipeline,especially those sections in discontinuous permafrost or near the compressor stations.The ground temperature field in response to the operation of a proposed chilled gas pipeline traversing permafrost regions in Alaska was simulated by a pipe-soil thermal interaction geothermal model.Frost heave mitigation measures,including insulation around the pipe,flat slab insulation under the pipe,and heating cables combined with slab insulation,were evaluated for chilled pipeline operation in seasonally varying ambient temperatures.The numerical results show that the minimum temperature of the observation point at 2.5 m below the pipe bottom increases by 17%,29%,and 48%when the thermal conductivity of the outer insulation layer is 0.1,0.05,and 0.02 W/(m K),respectively.For flat slab insulation,the thermal field is less sensitive to varying slab thicknesses than to varying thermal conductivity,implying the thermal conductivity,not the thickness,is the crucial factor.Additionally,the heat flow could be redirected from vertical to horizontal by flat slab insulation.The electrical heating cables could be regarded as a new heat source to balance the heat removal rate of the soil around the chilled pipe.The minimum temperature of the observation point at 1.1 m below the bottom of the pipe increases from-15.2℃to-3.0,1.5,and 7.5℃,corresponding to the heating cable power of 20,30,and 40 W,respectively,with the power of 30 W deemed appropriate for the study case.It is concluded that heating cables in combination with insulation slabs could be adopted to regulate the temperature field around the chilled pipeline efficiently and economically.The advantages of this combination include redirecting the heat flow and eliminating frost in the soil underlying the pipe.These approaches could be considered for applications in gas pipeline projects in arctic and alpine/high-plateau permafrost regions.

Assessment of wind energy potential in China

China wind atlas was made by numerical simulation and the wind energy potential in China was calculated. The model system for wind energy resource assessment was set up based on Canadian Wind Energy Simulating Toolkit (WEST) and the simulating method was as follows. First, the weather classes were obtained depend on meteorological data of 30 years. Then, driven by the initial meteorological field produced by each weather class, the meso-scale model ran for the distribution of wind energy resources according each weather class condition one by one. Finally, averaging all the modeling output weighted by the occurrence frequency of each weather class, the annual mean distribution of wind energy resources was worked out. Compared the simulated wind energy potential with other results from several activities and studies for wind energy resource assessment, it is found that the simulated wind energy potential in mainland of China is 3 times that from the second and the third investigations for wind energy resources by CMA, and is similar to the wind energy potential obtained by NREL in Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment(SWERA) project. The simulated offshore wind energy potential of China seems smaller than the true value. According to the simulated results of CMA and considering lots of limited factors to wind energy development, the final conclusion can be obtained that the wind energy availability in China is 700～1 200 GW, in which 600～1 000 GW is in mainland and 100～200 GW is on offshore, and wind power will become the important part of energy composition in future.

Responses of phreatophyte transpiration to falling water table in hyper-arid and arid regions,Northwest China

Quantitative assessment of the impact of groundwater depletion on phreatophytes in(hyper-)arid regions is key to sustainable groundwater management.However,a parsimonious model for predicting the response of phreatophytes to a decrease of the water table is lacking.A variable saturated flow model,HYDRUS-1D,was used to numerically assess the influences of depth to the water table(DWT)and mean annual precipitation(MAP)on transpiration of groundwater-dependent vegetation in(hyper-)arid regions of northwest China.An exponential relationship is found for the normalized transpiration(a ratio of transpiration at a certain DWT to transpiration at 1 m depth,T_(a)^(*))with increasing DWT,while a positive linear relationship is identified between T_(a)^(*)and annual precipitation.Sensitivity analysis shows that the model is insensitive to parameters,such as saturated soil hydraulic conductivity and water stress parameters,indicated by an insignificant variation(less than 20%in most cases)under±50%changes of these parameters.Based on these two relationships,a universal model has been developed to predict the response of phreatophyte transpiration to groundwater drawdown for(hyper-)arid regions using MAP only.The estimated T_(a)^(*)from the model is reasonable by comparing with published measured values.

Numeric modelling and risk assessment of pollutions in the Chinese Bohai Sea

To simulate the dynamic process of total nitrogen(TN) in seas, numerical modelling combined with the adjoint method is implemented in this study. Because nonpoint source terms(ST) and initial values(IV) of TN are essential but difficult to determine, the adjoint method was applied to a numerical model, and the ST and IV terms of TN were inverted via routine monitoring data in the Bohai Sea. In twin experiments, the adjoint method was capable of inverting the prescribed spatio-temporally distributed ST and the spatial distributed IV. In practical experiments, the results demonstrated that the simulation precision with ST inversion was higher than that with IV inversion and was accurate with joint initial values and source term(IST) inversion. This result indicates that nonpoint source TN is essential for the simulation of TN concentration. Furthermore, the simulated results indicate that the pollution in three bays of the Bohai Sea is rather severe. The model in this study is not specific to the Bohai Sea and can be generalized to other areas, such as the Beibu Gulf. These findings may assist in the development of cost-effective controls for accidental or planned industrial pollutant releases into coastal waters.

Qualitative and quantitative uncertainties in regional rainfall frequency analysis

Uncertainty exists widely in hydrological analysis, and this makes the process of uncertainty assessment very im- portant for making robust decisions. In this study, uncertainty sources in regional rainfall frequency analysis are identified for the first time. The numeral unite spread assessment pedigree （NUSAP） method is introduced and is first employed to quantify qual- itative uncertainty in regional rainfall frequency analysis. A pedigree matrix is particularly designed for regional rainfall frequency analysis, by which the qualitative uncertainty can be quantified. Finally, the qualitative and quantitative uncertainties are com- bined in an uncertainty diagnostic diagram, which makes the uncertainty evaluation results more intuitive. From the integrated diagnostic diagram, it can be determined that the uncertainty caused by the precipitation data is the smallest, and the uncertainty from different grouping methods is the largest. For the downstream sub-region, a generalized extreme value （GEV） distribution is better than a generalized logistic （GLO） distribution; for the south sub-region, a Pearson type III （PE3） distribution is the better choice; and for the north sub-region, GEV is more appropriate.