Analysis of Snowstorm Process in Northeast China during 5-9 November, 2021

In November 2021, Northeast China had more precipitation than in the same period. Among them, Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces in the Northeast China were the highest precipitation in the same period. I study a snowfall weather process from November 5 to 9, which mainly includes dynamic situation, synoptic background and situation. The results show that: In the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, circulation is adjusted from zonal to meridional with large fluctuations. The northerly wind behind the trough continuously transports the polar cold air to the south. The northwest airflow behind the trough led the cold air to erupt to the southeast. In the process of moving southward, the cold air meets the warm and humid air in front of the trough, causing snowfall in the northeast. The southerly airflow and southeasterly airflow on the east side of the vortex continued to transport warm and humid airflow from the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan, which enhanced the snowfall.

Reflection on China's Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Construction after Rainstorm and Snowstorm

On July 10,2004,Beijing was hit by the rainstorm that has not been seen for many years,which caused water accumulation in many places of the urban area,power supply interruption in many places,and traffic paralysis for nearly 5 h. On July 12,2004,the rainstorm in Shanghai lasted less than 1 h,but it caused 7 deaths,more than 20 injuries,extensive power outages and traffic paralysis. At the end of 2005,the continuous snowfall in Weihai City of Shandong Province for half a month caused direct economic losses of over 200 million yuan,and the continuous heavy snowfall had a serious impact on people’s lives. From July 17 to 23,2021,Henan Province suffered a rare extremely heavy rainstorm in history,with a direct economic loss of 120.6 billion yuan. Faced with such urban meteorological disasters and other types of urban disasters,combined with the current situation of disaster prevention and reduction in China,what will managers,decision-makers,and experts and scholars think about from them.

中国雪都阿尔泰山暖区暴雪水汽特征分析

为进一步做好中国雪都阿勒泰山冬季冰雪旅游暴雪预报预警服务,利用阿尔泰山固态降水数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析和GDAS数据,应用天气学诊断和不同水汽分析方法对2021年阿尔泰山区3次暴雪过程环流背景和水汽特征进行分析。结果表明:①3次暴雪过程均为新疆北部典型的暖区暴雪过程。②欧拉方法分析表明,该区水汽主要源于大西洋及其沿岸,阿尔泰山西边界为水汽输入,东边界和南边界为水汽输出,中、低层的水汽输入量与暴雪量关系密切,水汽通量散度辐合区位于对流层低层。③HYSPLIT(拉格朗日)方法分析表明,水汽源地主要来自北冰洋、欧洲,其次是中亚和加拿大,与上述结论明显不同;对暴雪区综合贡献较大的是对流层低层的水汽。④构建了阿尔泰山区暴雪过程水汽贡献模型,700 hPa及以上水汽自源地到达关键区后主要从偏西(西南)路径输入暴雪区,700 hPa以下水汽到达关键区后,在环流合适时主要从东南路径输入暴雪区,但从偏西(西南)和西北路径输入暴雪区的水汽也不容忽视;水汽主要在对流层低层聚集,并辐合抬升。

“12·14”山东暴雪过程降水相态的多源观测分析

基于毫米波云雷达、降水天气现象仪、风廓线雷达、双偏振雷达、自动气象站等多源观测资料及欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)第五代大气再分析(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)资料,对2023年12月14日山东暴雪过程的环流背景和降水粒子微物理参数进行分析,探讨新型观测资料在降水相态监测与预报中的应用。结果表明:(1)此次过程受高空槽、低空西南急流和江淮气旋影响,伴随地面气温下降和中层暖层消退,出现雨、雨夹雪、冰粒和雪等相态。(2)降水天气现象仪探测发现,雪和雨的下落末速度均较小,雪粒子直径超过8 mm,雨粒子直径大多在4 mm以下。(3)毫米波云雷达观测到反射率因子、径向速度、谱宽和垂直液态水含量降低时,雨夹雪转为雪。(4)风廓线雷达显示雨夹雪和冰粒阶段对应强的低空西南急流和最大垂直速度(4~5 m·s^(-1)),转雪时3 km以下垂直速度降低至2 m·s^(-1)左右。(5)相关系数(C c)、差分反射率(Z DR)和水平极化反射率因子(Z h)等双偏振参量可判断融化层亮带,亮带的下降和消失可指示此次过程雨向雪的转换。

1979~2017年冬季新疆北部各区域型暴雪日水汽输送特征分析

北疆地处内陆干旱半干旱区,降水的多少对其影响十分巨大。尤其在全球变暖背景下,北疆地区的降水异常增多。本研究利用1979~2017年北疆40个站点冬季降水资料、ECMWF ERA-Interim和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,基于HYSPLIT v4.9模式讨论北疆4个区域型暴雪日的水汽输送特征及可能影响机制。研究发现:(1)各区域型水汽以西边界输入为主,但西天山型有少量水汽从北边界输入,天山型有部分水汽从南边界高层输入;(2)北部型、西部型和西天山型的水汽通道均位于中纬西风带,但具体位置有所差异。北部型以地中海和黑海水汽输送为主,贡献率为58.8%;西部型以里海西南侧水汽输送为主,贡献率为70.8%;西天山型以黑海和里海东南侧水汽输送为主,总贡献率为72.9%;天山型的水汽源地主要位于印度、伊朗附近,贡献率为64.2%;(3)各区域型位势高度的距平南北均呈现“正—负”分布,西东均呈现“负—正—负”分布,但中心强度、位置及范围有所不同,这种差异导致影响区域的不同。

“23·12”山东半岛特大海效应暴雪特征及成因

采用地面气象观测站、多普勒天气雷达、闪电、积雪深度人工加密观测资料、常规观测及欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)第五代大气再分析(ECMWF Reanalysis v5,ERA5)资料,对2023年12月15—22日山东半岛特大海效应暴雪过程的降雪特征及极端性成因进行了分析。结果表明:(1)此次过程有4站积雪深度突破本站历史极值,有1站2 d的日降雪量为山东半岛海效应降雪有气象记录以来的最大值,文登积雪深度达74 cm,超过山东所有国家级地面气象观测站纪录,是一次极端海效应暴雪事件。(2)欧亚中高纬度阻塞形势下两次异常强冷空气持续影响渤海和山东半岛地区,850 hPa温度最低降至-21~-20℃,冷空气强度明显强于往年12月海效应暴雪过程,造成降雪持续时间长、累计降雪量大。异常强冷空气是此次极端暴雪过程产生的关键因素,渤海海面温度(简称“海温”)异常偏高是有利的海温背景。(3)冷空气强、海温偏高造成海气温差偏大,700 hPa以下产生对流不稳定,使得降雪强度大;强降雪发生在海气温差快速增大阶段。(4)925 hPa以下存在来自渤海的北—东北风与内陆地区的西北风构成的切变线,产生强上升运动,切变线长时间维持形成“列车效应”。(5)主要降雪时段强垂直上升运动、高相对湿度层的温度为-20~-12℃,适宜树枝状冰晶形成和维持,有利于产生大的积雪和降雪含水比;2 m气温持续低于-5℃,0 cm地温在降雪开始时即降至0℃以下,且两次强降雪过程仅间隔1 d,均有利于降雪累积产生极端积雪深度。

四种检验方法在山东暴雪预报中的应用对比

利用山东122个国家级地面气象观测站2017—2021年中1—3月和11—12月“24 h降雪量p≥10.0 mm”的暴雪实况资料,采用二分类法、邻域空间检验法(以下简称“邻域法”)、时间偏移法和量级模糊法等4种方法对山东暴雪预报进行检验与对比。结果表明:(1)山东暴雪具有明显的时空分布特征,暴雪主要出现在半岛北部地区,鲁东南和半岛南部产生暴雪的概率最小;暴雪出现次数的年际变化和月际变化较大,最多年份出现98次,最少年份仅有5次,2月是高发月,占全年暴雪总次数的38.5%。(2)现行业务中应用最广泛的二分类法检验的预报命中率较低,其中24 h预报命中率仅为12.08%,主要原因是该方法受到空间、时间和量级的多重影响,不能精细准确地反映预报能力。(3)邻域法、时间偏移法和量级模糊法对24 h的暴雪预报命中率分别为14.40%、14.69%和30.05%;相较于二分类法,这3种检验方法的预报命中率均有较大幅度提高,空报率和漏报率均有较大幅度下降。(4)融合邻域法、时间偏移法和量级模糊法的综合检验法,能从空间、时间和量级3个维度区分出预报差异,检验结果更加精细准确,有利于引导预报员放下“检验评分低”的思想包袱,做出更加科学客观的预报,进一步提升预报服务效果。

2024年1月大气环流和天气分析

2024年1月大气环流的主要特征是:北半球极涡呈偶极型分布,欧亚中高纬环流呈纬向“两槽一脊”型,东亚大槽偏东。1月,全国平均降水量为16.3 mm,较常年同期(14.1 mm)偏多15.6%;全国平均气温-3.8℃,较常年同期(-4.8℃)偏高1.0℃。月内气温起伏较大,出现了1次全国型寒潮过程和2次大范围持续性雾-霾天气过程。其中20—22日的寒潮天气过程具有影响范围广、降温幅度大、大风持续时间长、暴雪极端性强等特点。

基于拉格朗日方法的鲁南一次回流大暴雪的水汽来源分析

利用拉格朗日轨迹模式HYSPLIT,结合E-P诊断法,以及区域源汇归因法,研究了2015年鲁南一次回流大暴雪的水汽来源及输送路径。结果表明,影响暴雪过程的水汽路径有3条:一条是回流路径,沿中低空的回流冷空气经渤海、黄海输送至鲁南;另一条是南支路径,沿槽前西南气流经华南、华中向北输送至鲁南;第三条是偏西路径,沿平直的西风气流从黄土高原东侧输送至鲁南。源汇区定量分析显示,回流暴雪的水汽源地有6个,分别是渤海黄海区域、华东中北部区域、中南区域、南海区域、亚洲大陆南部和北部。对比不同源地的水汽贡献发现,中南区域与渤海黄海区域对回流暴雪的贡献最大,这与两者初期较高的源区水汽摄取量密切相关。华东中北部区域虽然初期水汽摄取较少,但由于其沿途水汽损耗较低并且在目标区域降水转化率较高,因此最终的水汽贡献不容忽视。尽管亚洲大陆南部和北部区域初期水汽吸收量明显高于华东中北部区域的,但过高的沿途水汽损耗,最终导致它们的实际水汽贡献低于华东中北部区域的贡献率。中国南海区域的水汽贡献最小,一方面是由较高的水汽损耗所致,另一方面还与初期较低的水汽吸收量有关。

湖南冬季2次暴雪过程的对比诊断分析

【目的】湖南的暴雪天气较为少见,为了提高暴雪强度和落区的预报准确率。【方法】利用常规地面和高空观测资料及欧洲中心ERA-5再分析数据,对2021年12月25—27日(21·12)、2022年2月21—23日(22·02)发生在湖南的2次暴雪过程进行诊断分析。【结果】2次暴雪过程有强度大、影响范围广,暴雪落区较为重合的特点。2次暴雪过程也表现出明显差异,21·12过程的累计降雪量小于22·02过程,但21·12以干雪为主,22·02以湿雪为主。【结论】分析差异的成因发现:(1)22·02过程水汽辐合强度强、延伸高度高、厚度厚,动力条件由南支槽和低涡提供;21·12过程水汽条件相对弱,动力条件由冷锋强迫抬升提供。(2)21·12过程冷空气从低层南下,云中冰相粒子比例大,温度层结满足干雪条件;22·02过程中层气温下降,云中冰相粒子与水相粒子共存,地面气温在0℃以上,故以湿雪为主。

2020年4月20—22日内蒙古东北部暴雪天气过程动力因子诊断分析

利用NCEP-GFS(0.5°×0.5°)资料对2020年4月20—22日影响内蒙古东北部暴雪天气过程进行动力因子诊断分析,选取了质量散度、垂直螺旋度、质量垂直螺旋度、水汽垂直螺旋度、散度垂直通量、密度散度垂直通量、水汽散度通量、基于广义位温的热力垂直螺旋度、热力散度垂直通量等动力、热力因子。结果表明:(1)此次暴雪过程是由东北低涡、东北气旋导致的,在降雪初期水汽是从渤海、黄海、日本海输送的,后期以鄂霍次克海的水汽向西输送为主;(2)动力因子对此次暴雪过程的发展和演变有着较好的指示意义;(3)动力因子的大值区基本覆盖强降雪区,在强降雪区域表现为强信号,在非降雪区表现为弱信号,能够描述降雪区动力、热力场的垂直结构特征;(4)分析螺旋度、水汽垂直螺旋度、散度通量、水汽散度通量在降雪天气过程中的特点发现,考虑水汽后,雪区上空对流层中低层的动力学结构被强化,由此可见水汽的作用在于重点突出与降雪区密切相关的对流层中低层动力场结构特征,比起其他的动力因子,水汽垂直螺旋度、水汽散度通量在降雪预报中的指示作用较突出。

Horizontal distribution and levels of heavy metals in the biggest snowstorm in a century in Shenyang,China

The horizontal distribution and levels of heavy metals in the biggest snowstorm in Shenyang since 1904 were investigated by analyzing 4 metals (As,Cd,Pb,and Cu) in a series of ultraclean samples collected from 17 sites distributed in different regions of the Shenyang area,China.The results showed that the concentrations of all the 4 heavy metals in snow from the industrial regions were high,up to 7.3 (As),2.2 (Cd),850.0 (Pb),and 0.197-20.2 (Cu)μg/kg,respectively.In the suburb,in contrast,their concentration...

Eddy Kinetic Energy Study of the Snowstorm over Southern China in January 2008

The energetics of the third stage of a snowstorm over China was analyzed using ECWMF data.The analysis of the energy budget for the Middle East trough and the western Pacific trough that developed toward China on 25-28 January 2008 showed the advection of the geopotential by the ageostrophic wind to be both a crucial source and the primary sink of the eddy kinetic energy centers associated with the troughs.The magnitudes of the energy conversion terms,interaction kinetic energy conversion and baroclinic conversion,were too small to explain the development of the energy centers and the jet streaks.The energy centers gained energy at their entrance regions via the convergence of the ageostrophic geopotential fluxes,and then lost energy at their exit regions by the same fluxes.At the entrance regions,the fluxes converged,increasing the geopotential gradient,which generated a stronger geostrophic wind and higher kinetic energy,resulting in an ascending motion in this area.When the troughs moved to China,the ascending motion caused by the convergence of the fluxes at entrance region intensified the snowstorms over central and southern China.

A QUANTITATIVE STUDY FOR ABNORMAL FREEZING RAINS AND SNOWSTORMS IN SOUTHERN CHINA IN EARLY 2008

A quantitative diagnosis is carried out for the upward branch of a local meridional circulation over southern China(SC) during the abnormal snowstorms with severe freezing rain from 10 January to 3 February 2008.The diagnostic study shows that the upward branch is mainly associated with the zonal advection of westerly momentum and meridional temperature advection instead of the latent heating(which is commonly the dominant factor in many other storm cases).The corresponding weather analyses indicate that(1) the zonal advection of westerly momentum represents the effect of the upper-level divergence on the anticyclone-shear side in the entrance of a 200 hPa westerly jet with a westward deviation from its climatological location over southwestern Japan;(2) the meridional temperature advection represents the interaction between the mid-lower layer(850 to 400 hPa) warm advection over SC(ahead of temperature and pressure troughs with the latter trough deeper than the former in the Bay of Bengal) and cold advection over north China(steered by an underlying flow at 500 hPa);(3) the relatively weak vapor transport(compared to that of spring,summer and autumn) from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea to SC and the existence of a temperature inversion layer in the lower troposphere over SC diminish the effect of latent heating.With the significant increase of vapor transport after 24 January,the role of latent heating is upgraded to become the third positive contributor to the upward branch over SC.

Study on Possible Mechanism of Terrain Influence on Cold-flow Snowstorm

[Objective] The research aimed to study the possible mechanism of terrain effect on cold-flow snowstorm.[Method] By using the meso-scale numerical model(WRF),a cold-flow snowstorm weather process in Shandong Peninsula was carried out numerical simulation and terrain sensitivity contrast test.The possible reason of terrain effect on falling zone and strength of snowstorm was deeply analyzed from water vapor,thermodynamic field and so on.[Result] The mountain terrain in Shandong Peninsula had great influences on falling zone and strength of cold-flow snowstorm.The strength of snowstorm obviously increased,and the snowfall center obviously moved northward.The main reason was that terrain caused the low-level wind field convergence and vertical movement in the troposphere strengthened.Then,the spatial distribution of water vapor and snow water content in the cold-flow snowstorm process obviously changed.So,the whole snowstorm process was affected.[Conclusion] The mountain terrain in Shandong Peninsula was the important element which needed to be focused on considering in the forecast analysis of cold-flow snowstorm weather process.

A Study on Snowstorm Weather in Coastal Area of Western Antarctic

In this paper, based on the observational data of 1995 in the Chinese Antarctic Great Wall Station the snowstorm is studied synoptically. It is found that there are two kinds of snowstorms with different physical characteristics and that the happening of snowstorm is always accompanied by a near-ground level inversion layer. The function of the inversion layer is analyzed, too. It is indicated that the strong ESE-wind type snowstorm is mainly caused by katabatic wind and gradient wind together. This idea is new and different from the general concept that there is no katabatic wind in the western Antarctic area.

A Neural Network Method for Monitoring Snowstorm: A Case Study in Southern China

It has been observed that low temperature, rainfall, snowfall, frost have never occurred over the past 50 years in the southern China, and weather in this area is very complex, so the monitoring equipments are few. Optical and thermal infrared remote sensing is influenced much by clouds, so the passive microwave Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System(AMSR-E) data are the best choice to monitor and analyze the development of disaster. In order to improve estimation accuracy, the dynamic learning neural network was used to retrieve snow depth. The difference of brightness temperatures of TB18.7V and TB36.5V, TB18.7H and TB36.5H, TB23.8V and TB89 V, TB23.8H and TB89 H are made as four main input nodes and the snow depth is the only one output node of neural network. The mean and the standard deviation of retrieval errors are about 4.8 cm and 6.7 cm relative to the test data of ground measurements. The application analysis indicated that the neural network can be utilized to monitor the change of snow intensity distribution through passive microwave data in the complex weather of the southern China.

Analysis on the Physical Mechanism of Snowstorm Generated by the South Cyclone

[Objective] The research aimed to study the physical mechanism of snowstorm which was generated by the south cyclone. [Method] By using the routine meteorological observation data, satellite data and MM5 mode output data, the snowstorm weather in the east of Heilongjiang Province during March 4-6, 2007 was analyzed. The physical mechanism of snowstorm which was generated by the south cyclone was discussed. [Result] Jianghuai cyclone advanced northward to generate the snowstorm. In the middle and high latitudes, the good cold air must coordinate with it. Meanwhile, the south cyclone provided the good high temperature condition and the rich water vapor condition for the snowstorm generation. The snowstorm generation must have the close coordination of airflows in the high and low levels, and the strong convergence ascending movement was generated. The vertical movement made that the atmospheric energy could be transformed. When the snowstorm was generated, there was the strong vertical ascending movement in the high altitude. The snowstorm falling zone was in the north side of big value zone. The variation of TBB cloud top temperature intensity as the time had the good guidance role for forecasting the starting time of strong snowfall. The convergence center of water vapor flux divergence and the zone where the temperature drew point difference in 925 hPa layer ≤ 4 ℃ had the good corresponding relationships with the snowstorm falling zone and the snowfall strong center. It provided the good reference index for forecasting the falling zone and strong center of snowstorm. Under the restriction of moist potential vorticity conservation, for the leaning of θe surface, the atmospheric horizontal wind was vertical, or the wet baroclinicity increased, which could cause the significant development of vertical vorticity. The bigger θe surface leaning was, the stronger the cyclonic vorticity was. It was easy to cause the strong precipitation weather. When the high-altitude dry cold air invaded and glided along θe ridge surface, the unstable energy was induced to release, which provided the energy for the snowstorm generation. The dry invasion process was also the strong snowfall generation process, and the snowstorm falling zone was in the steep and dense zone of θe. [Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for the prediction and forecast of rainstorm weather.

A Case study of a snowstorm at the Great Wall Station,Antarctica

A case of a snowstorm at the Great Wall Station was studied using data of NCEP（National Centers for Environmental Prediction） analysis,in situ observations and surface weather charts.The storm occurred on August 29th, 2006,and brought high winds and poor horizontal visibility to the region.It was found that the storm occurred under the synoptic situation of a high in the south and a low in the north.A low-level easterly jet from the Antarctic continent significantly decreased the air temperature and humidity.Warm air advection at high level brought sufficient vapor from lower latitudes for the snowstorm to develop. The dynamic factors relating to strong snowfall and even the development of a snowstorm were deep cyclonic vorticity at middle and low levels,the configuration of divergence at high level and convergence at low level,and strong vertical uplift.There was an inversion layer in the low-level atmosphere during the later phase of the storm.This vertical structure of cold air at low levels and warm air at high levels may have been important to the longevity of the snowstorm.

Verification of Mongolian Cyclone-Induced Snowstorm Model Forecast in Jilin Province, China

Situation field forecast and rainfall forecast in typical numerical forecast models including EC (The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), t639 (T639 Global Forecast System) and Japanese model were verified by set statistics and TS (Threat Score) scoring based on 8 cases of Mongolian cyclone-induced snowstorm in Jilin Province in this paper. As shown by the results, for the forecast of Mongolian cyclone location and intensity, EC has significantly higher accuracy than Japanese model and t639, and there is a high likelihood that it forecasts the southerly cyclone location, relatively fast movement and comparatively weak intensity within 72 hours;for snowfall forecast, Japanese model shows significantly higher accuracy than other models, especially it has obviously stronger ability to forecast the heavy rainfall above snowstorm than other models, while WRF model (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model) has strong forecast ability of normal snowfall;for normal snowfall, the 72-hour missing forecast rate is higher than false forecast rate in all the models.